SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH +111 over St. Louis
Only two games separate these two teams for the available NL Wild Card spot. The season series between these two couldn’t be any closer with each team winning six of 12 games with a 57-56 run combined score in favor of Pittsburgh.
There’s a big gap in Kyle Lohse’s 2.61 ERA and 3.98 xERA. Lohse has been very consistent but his base skills are far from electric. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is very average at 41%/24%/35%. He has just 104 K’s in 169 frames. Lohse has a career ERA of 4.46 so contrary to public opinion, he hasn’t upgraded his game a whole lot. A career-high 79% strand rate has boosted his numbers with regression down the stretch being highly probable.
A.J. Burnett continues to enjoy a renaissance season and it keeps getting better. Over his last six starts covering 44 frames, Burnett has struck out 45 batters including 10 in one game. He has an xERA of 3.10 and a groundball rate of 54% over his last seven starts. Cardinals are 30-31 on the road while the Bucs own one of the best home records in the league at 38-25. Wrong side favored.