Stephen Nover
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +118
For just a fleeting moment it looked like the White Sox might make a move. They had won a season-high seven in a row.
Since then, though, the White Sox have lost three of their past four. They've been hammered in those defeats losing by a margin of 33-11.
Any excitement on the south side of Chicago has quelled. I'm not buying into the White Sox being a favorite against the Rays in a pitching matchup of Nate Karns versus Jose Quintana.
Both of these pitchers are somewhat underrated. But the White Sox don't win for the southpaw Quintana and the Rays are very good against lefties.
Chicago has lost nine of the past 12 times Quintana has been favored.
The Rays ranked sixth in Weighted On-Base Average (WOBA) against southpaws. Tampa Bay is 13-3 in its last 16 games versus a southpaw starter and has won seven of the past nine times when facing a lefty on the road.
The White Sox are bad defensively ranking 24th in errors. They also rate 24th in runs scored and 25th in homers.
Karns has given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. The Rays enter the matchup having just beaten the Red Sox on the road Sunday.
Jim Feist
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +143
Arizonahas a top 7 offense in baseball and the Diamondbacks are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Arizona's Zack Godley (2-0, 2.25 ERA) has been terrific and the Diamondbacks are 6-11 in their last seven interleague road games. Washington is home from a road trip and goes with struggling Doug Fister (4.39 ERA) with opponents hitting .299 off him. The team is 2-6 his last eight starts. The Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Marc Lawrence
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: San Francisco Giants -145
Edges - Giants: Matt Cain 5-0 with 1.71 ERA last five away team starts during the month of August, and 2-1 with 1.80 ERA career team starts in this series. Braves: 5-11 last sixteen games in this series. With Cain in crafty KW form with 14 strikeouts and only 1 walk his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Scott Spreitzer
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins +103
We had the Mets last night and cashed when they completed the weekend sweep of the Washington Nationals. But talk about a letdown spot! The Mets are in a tough situation tonight and they haven't played well on the road this season anyway. New York enters the series with Miami having won just 17 of 49 games away from Citi Field. They have also dropped seven straight Bartolo Colon starts, so I highly doubt they're going to find the "sweet elixir" tonight. Colon has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last seven starts and like his team, he's been a disaster away from home, where he's been tagged for a 5.57 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .302 BAA in nine starts. Colon has made one start at Marlins Park this season, getting knocked around in a 7-3 loss. Tom Koehler was roughed-up a bit in his last outing, but had allowed just seven earned runs in his previous six starts, posting a 1.62 ERA & 0.92 in 39 innings of work. Koehler has been tremendous this season at home and I expect more of the same tonight.
Mike Lundin
Astros vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9
Five of the last six meetings at Arlington have gone under the total and I'm looking for that trend to continue when solid pitchers will take the mound Monday night. The Astros will turn to 21 year old rookie Lance McCullers who owns a 2.48 ERA for the season. He's allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts and will face the Rangers for the first time. The Rangers will give the ball to Colby Lewis who has posted a 4.42 ERA for the year, but he seems to have the Astros figured out conceding only seven runs over 22 2/3 innings in previous meetings this season. He's 7-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 13 appearances all-time against Houston.
Notes
The under is 8-0-1 in Houston's last nine road games.
Houston's .242 AVG away from home for the season is among the worst marks in baseball.
The under is 7-0 in Houston's last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-1 in Texas' last five at home when facing a right-handed starter.
Rob Vinciletti
Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Seattle Mariners -157
The Mariner have King Felix on the mound and he will take on a Colorado team that 0-6 at home off a road loss after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game and 0-8 as a ho e dog off a road game. The Rockies have lost 12 of 14 vs American league teams and 11 of 14 when the posted total is 9 to 9.5. They have Eddie Butler pitching and he has a 5.96 home era and a mediocre 6.621 era in his last 3 starts. With Seattle 9-2 as a road favorite in this range we will look their way today.
World Wide Sports
Padres vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8
Tyson Ross is scheduled to start for the Padres. Ross is 7-8 with a 3.38 ERA in 22 starts, Ross has been tough on the road where he's 4-3 with a 2.63 ERA in 13 road starts. Ross also had a strong July where he carried an ERA of 2.81. Wily Peralta is set to toe the rubber for the Brewers. Peralta is 2-5 with a 3.90 ERA in 10 starts this season. Peralta is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA at home this season. I look for these two pitchers to keep the bats in check. This game also falls into our totals system.
Mr Vegas
Tampa Bay at Chicago
Play: Under
A long road trip continues for Tampa Bay, an offense ranked 26th in runs scored on a 9-2-4 run under the total. The under is 33-14-4 in the Rays last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Tampa Bay is 8-1-3 against a right-handed starter and faces Jose Quintana (3.52 ERA), who has allowed 2 runs his last 15 innings. In six July starts, Quintana is 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA and a 40-2 strikeout to walk ratio. The Under is 41-19-3 in Quintanas last 63 starts overall. But the Chicago offense ranks 27th in runs scored and the under is 37-17-1 in the White Sox's last 55 home games.
DAVE COKIN
CUBS VS. PIRATES
PLAY: CUBS +120
We have a potentially dynamite duel on tap tonight as the Cubs open a series at Pittsburgh. It’s Jon Lester and Francisco Liriano in a battle of southpaws. I’m looking to ride Lester here. He’s really hot right now and he’s also one of those guys who seems to rise to the occasion in big games.
Lester is on fire. His recent BB/K ratio is spectacular and when contact gets made, it usually results in a ground ball. There’s nothing wrong with Liriano, either. The Pirates southpaw is putting up very solid numbers. But they’re just a shade below those of Lester.
The Cubs are also arriving in the Steel City with some major momentum. They’re off an impressive road sweep at Milwaukee and underdogs on a winning streak are often very attractive. The Pirates managed to get a split at Cincinnati, but the Bucs didn’t really play all that well in the four-game set and I see the Cubs being a little sharper right now.
Team data shows the Cubs being more productive than the Pirates against lefties, so that’s a positive. The Pirates have the more reliable bullpen stats for the season, but not lately as their relief corps has struggled at times recently.
This is a huge series for both teams. The Pirates have a four-game cushion for the first wild card spot in the NL. Meanwhile, the Bucs would love to make a serious dent in the 5.5 game deficit they have in the NL Central, and that’s with the beat up Cardinals looking a little vulnerable right now. As for the Cubs, they’re currently tied with the defending champion Giants for the second wild card in the NL. So this is a big set and I expect a real playoff atmosphere at what should be a packed PNC tonight.
I make this game a tossup, so grabbing a decent price with the Cubs would appear to represent some decent value. I would think runs will be tough to come by tonight, but I’ll side with the Cubs to sneak past the Pirates in this one.
Will Rogers
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -1½ -105
The Minnesota Twins have won only five games since the All Star break and the surging Toronto Blue Jays are now only one game behind them for the second Wild Card in the AL. The Jays have won four of their last five, including three of four against the AL-best Royals, and I think they'll prove to be well worth the price in this match-up.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Twins hand the ball to Ervin Santana (2-1, 3.78 ERA) who'll make his sixth start since coming back from an 80-game suspension. He's been inconsistent in the previous five and struggled big time in his most recent starts, surrendering eight runs (six earned) on eight hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings. The Jays will counter with elite southpaw David Price (9-4, 2.53) who'll make his first start for Toronto since coming over from the Tigers. It won't be his first start at Toronto though where he's 7-0 with a 3.86 ERA in nine career starts as a visitor. He should not have any problem to make Rogers Centre his own and he's dominated the Twins over the last two seasons going 6-1 with a 1.87 ERA in seven meetings.
2. Home Cookin' - The Blue Jays are a solid 32-21 at home for the year and they're 4-1 in their last five games as a home favorite. The Twins meanwhile have won just one of their last five away from home as an underdog.
3. X-Factor - Minnesota has lost five straight games when facing a left-handed starter.
Kevin Rogers
Giants at Braves
Play: Braves
The Braves own a solid 5-1 record in their last six home series openers, as Atlanta returns to Turner Field tonight to host San Francisco. The Giants head to Atlanta after dropping two of three at Texas, as Matt Cain takes the mound in the opener. Cain hasn't been sharp on the road, allowing at least 4 ER in two of three starts away from AT&T Park this season. The Giants are 2-6 in Cain's last eight starts as a road favorite since 2013, while being listed in this role for the first time in four starts this season. Michael Foltynewicz is back in the rotation for the re-tooled Braves, coming off a solid effort in a loss at Baltimore, scattering eight hits in six innings, but allowing two homers in a 2-0 loss. The Braves have won twice in Foltynewicz's starts as a home dog, but this will be the biggest home dog price he will be listed at this season.
Wunderdog
San Diego @ Milwaukee
Pick: San Diego -105
The Milwaukee Brewers became sellers prior to the trade deadline, and they will begin the rebuilding process over the last two months of the regular season. The Brewers have really struggled against right handed pitching this season. The Brew Crew is actually 12-9 vs. left handers, but enter this game at a woeful 32-52 vs. right handers. They will see a good one tonight in Tyson Ross and his 3.38 ERA on the season. The Brewers have lost five straight games, and San Diego is 7-2 in their last nine, converting each of their last five as a favorite to the win column. Milwaukee's 20-33 home record on the season doesn't bode well here either, and they are 0-5 here in their last five. Make the play on San Diego.
Big Al
Baltimore vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The Oakland A's and Baltimore Orioles will hook up tonight in the Bay Area. And this will be Tyler Wilson's first road start (he's made just one start -- at home -- this season). Unfortunately for Wilson, Baltimore has won just seven of 29 road games at night this season. And Jesse Chavez has been super at home for the A's, with a 2.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
SPORTS WAGERS
HAMILTON -3½ over Toronto
Give the Argonauts all the credit in the world for their strong work ethic and outstanding play on both sides of the ball for long stretches throughout their first four games. We take absolutely nothing away from these Argonauts but their 3-1 record is not completely legit and they’re really up against it here. After four consecutive games on the West Coast, Toronto will play its fifth straight on the road. The Double Blue used up a ton of energy last week in rallying from a 21-point deficit in British Columbia to defeat the Lions outright. That game completely turned after Lions coach Mike Tedford decided to go for it on a 3rd and 4 inside his own 54-yard line early in the third quarter with a 14-point lead. Prior to that, the Argos were outgained by Calgary by 126 yards and outgained by Saskatchewan by 220 yards. Toronto’s only convincing win was their season opener against Edmonton. They could just as easily be 1-3 as oppose to 3-1 and while we like the direction of the Argos and the relentless fight that they have in them, they will now play a team that has not come close to playing to their potential.
The Ti-Cats are coming off a 31-21 victory in Regina last week. Had Kevin Glenn not been injured at the end of the third quarter, that game surely could have had a different result. It’s not that Hamilton played poorly last week but these Tigercats have simply not been sharp in their offense or play calling. That all changes here. Hamilton is at home for the first time this season. Ivor Wynne Stadium tonight will be packed to the rafters and it’ll be rocking. The ‘Cats own the superior offense and the superior defense. They also have C.J. Gable back after he returned last week against Saskatchewan. Outside of QB’s, Gable might just be the biggest difference maker in the entire league. Five weeks on the road in succession and now the Argos have to prepare for C.J Gable too. Toronto really misses Andre Durie and they’re not getting enough out of others to compensate. Hamilton caught a break against Saskatchewan last week and while the ‘Cats aren't publicly acknowledging the role good fortune played in their win, they are certainly tired of hearing about it. This is a very confident Hamilton team with something to prove and this is the team they want to prove it against more than any other.