SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +136 over WASHINGTON
Doug Fister pitching for the Nationals is one of the most overpriced pitcher/team combos in baseball. Fister has a mere 42 K’s in 80 innings. His fastball averages 84.4 mph and his swing and miss rate is also weak at 6%. In his last two starts, Fister’s swing and miss rate was 3%. Fister’s ERA/xERA split is 4.39/4.81. His line drive rate is 24%. In fact, the only good number we can find in his entire profile is the 18 walks he’s issued. Doug Fister has four wins in 14 starts this season. He’s at the mercy of his defense, luck and the direction of the wind. This is one risky favorite that we want no part of.
Zack Godrey has made 12 less starts than Fister and has two less wins. He burst onto the scene with a gem (6 IP 4H 0 ER) at his pitcher-friendly home park against the then hot-hitting Brewers. In 12 innings over his first two starts, Godfrey has allowed 11 hits, three runs, has a BB/K split of 3/11 and has an elite 55% groundball rate. Of course this is a very small sample size but every pitcher has to start somewhere. Throw in a 14% swing and miss rate and an xERA of 3.01 and this is a bet we would make every time. It’s also worth noting that the Nats are hitting .194 over their last five games. The Diamondbacks are playing some decent ball too. They dropped the final two games of their weekend series in Houston but they out-hit the Astronauts yesterday 9-8 but scored just one run. They had won six in a row prior to Saturday’s loss in Houston while scoring 26 runs in a four-game set at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. We get a pretty sweet price against one of the most hittable and beatable starting pitchers in the game. It’s precisely the type of wager a value bettor seeks out.
Baltimore +105 over OAKLAND
Drafted in the 10th round (305th overall) by the Baltimore Orioles in 2011 while being signed for a mere $20,000), Tyler Wilson is no longer being overlooked in the Orioles system. Drafted out of Virginia after his senior year in 2011, Wilson has made slow, steady progress through the system, culminating in his being named Baltimore's minor league pitcher of the year in 2014. He went 14-8 with a 3.67 ERA in 28 starts at Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk and tied for ninth in the minors with 157 innings. Wilson's strong season was the result of a solid-average fastball, improved secondary pitches and a work ethic that one Baltimore staff member ranked as good as any in the organization. Wilson pitched at 90-94 mph, showing an uptick in velocity after a winter of workouts. His slider and changeup now also rate solid-average. His slider showed tight spin and good depth. A strike-thrower, Wilson rarely walks batters, as his 18 BB in 91.1 innings at Norfolk this season will attest to. Wilson gets outs and he’ll now face a weak offense that traded away some thunder and that is batting .193 over their last five games.
Jesse Chavez made his rotation debut last season. He got off to fast start in the 1st half of last year but a 5.20 July ERA resulted in a bullpen demotion. His skills indicated that he’d be back, as first-pitch strike rate suggested not to worry about his 2nd half loss of control, while his K-rate continued its steady ascent. Here’s the problem though: Chavez’s innings pitched history points to durability concerns as starter. He ran out of gas last year and he’s running on fumes again this year. This is a guy that didn’t throw more than 67 innings in a season since he broke into the league in 2008. He threw 146 innings last year and couldn’t make it past July. He’s already thrown 115 innings this season and is showing all the signs of fatigue. Chavez has a 5.33 ERA over his last five starts. His line-drive rate over that stretch is an eye-opening 28% and his swing and miss rate has dropped from 9% all season down to 6% over his last five starts. If the increased workload doesn’t get to him, chances are the Orioles will.
Sleepyj
Toronto -1.5 -108
Not a bad price here to lay the RL with Price on the mound...Price hasn't picked upa win in his last 3 appearnaces..he would love to get in the win column here today..He has great success against this Twins team as well...If you look at what Price has done all year, he is very solid..ERA is only a 2.53 and WHIP is 1.11....In 8 of his last 10 starts Price has only allowed over 2 runs twice...Price is Price and getting a solid outing from him is very high here today..His last game against this Twins lineup was just back on July 9th...He gave up 5 hits and 0ER in 8 full innings of work..He should feel very comfortable stepping on the mound today..The combination of Price + the Bluejays offense can be deadly to any team...Twins will send Santana on the mound today..i like Santana for the most part and this will be my first play against him today..Santana is 2-1 on the year and has a 3.78 ERA...He only has 5 starts all year and he was roughed up in two of the five..He has actually been solid on the road..His last outing was the worst of the season however..He gave up 8 runs on 8 hits..He dealt just 5.2 innings in that game against Pitt..How will he feel today going against this Bluejays lineup?....I think he will be rather intimidated..Bluejays are so deep and they are looking to get on a serious run..I think it starts here today..Twins have lost 6 of the last 8 games and the offense has been "iffy"..hitting against some of the better pitchers this Twins lineup gets rather cold..I expect that again today...I'll lay the 1.5 here.
Brandon Shively
Rays vs. White Sox
Play: Under 8
Tampa Bay will have Karns on the mound and he has a 22K/ 4BB mark in July. Of his last 8 starts, there has been only an average of 5 runs scored. The UNDER is now 6-2 in his L8 road starts and 7-3 in his L10 starts as an underdog. The White Sox will have Quintana on the mound and has a 2.48 ERA in 14 night starts this season. He posted a 40K/ 2 BB mark for the month of July. There has been an average of only 6 runs scored in his home starts this season. Tampa Bay is 11-23-1 UNDER when inserted as a homedog this season meaning they go UNDER 68% of the time when a road dog. Chicago White Sox are 8-22 UNDER when inserted as a home favorite this season meaning they go UNDER 74% of the time as a home favorite. Look for another lower scoring game here tonight with a final score in the 3-2 range.
Dave Price
Seattle Mariners -168
I'm willing to lay the big juice with the Seattle Mariners today due to the massive edge they have on the mound in this one. Plus, the Rockies just traded away Troy Tulowitzki, and they have lost four of their last five games overall to fall to 44-59 on the season. Felix Hernandez is 12-6 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 21 starts this year. He is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, so there's no question he'll be hungry to bounce back. He'll be opposed by Eddie Butler, who is 3-7 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.776 WHIP in 13 starts, 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.949 WHIP in five home starts, and 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.837 WHIP in his last three starts overall. The Mariners are 8-2 in Hernandez's last 10 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Rockies are 16-54 in their last 70 interleague games. The Rockies are 7-53 in their last 60 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.
Jack Jones
San Diego Padres -101
The San Diego Padres (51-54) have clearly not quit on their season. They are still very much alive in the wild card race after going 7-2 in their last nine games overall. Now they get to face one of the worst teams in baseball.
Milwaukee (44-62) clearly packed it after the All-Star Break. It traded away three of its best players in Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and Aramis Ramirez. It has now lost five straight and eight of its last nine coming in.
Tyson Ross sports a 3.45 ERA in 22 starts this season, including a 2.75 ERA in 13 road starts. Wily Peralta is 2-5 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Brewers. Ross is 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee is 0-8 (-8.4 Units) against the money line after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR this season. The Padres are 4-1 in Ross' last five road starts. The Brewers are 7-24 in their last 31 vs. NL West opponents.
Jimmy Boyd
Dbacks/Nationals Over 8
I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in this one, as we have two strong offensive teams facing off in Washington. The Nationals will send out the struggling Doug Fister, who has a 4.39 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in 14 starts, including a 5.62 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Arizona counters with Zack Godley, who has mixed results in his first two starts. Godley tossed 6 shutout innings at home against the light-hitting Brewers in his MLB debut, but allowed 3 runs on 7 hits (2 HRs) and 3 walks in 6 innings at Seattle.
Washington is going to be extremely motivated offensively after a tough series at the plate against the Mets. In fact, the OVER is a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in 3 straight games. Over is also 22-9 in Fister's last 31 starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 6-1-1 in Arizona's last 8 as an underdog.
Alex Smart
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Under 6½
Kliuber posted a 2.91 ERA in July and has a 2.80 ERA with 126 strikeouts in his last 15 starts (112 1/3 innings).Last years Cy Young award winner despite of an 11 loss season is still in top tier form and coming off a complete-game, one-run win over the AL-best Royals. With the Angels scoring a total of 15 runs during their current six-game losing streak. With that said, Kluber should oncee again shine and limit run production from a slumping side.
Meanwhile, Richards the Halos starter has lost back-to-back games despite posting a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts. The righty hurler owns a stellar 2.08 ERA in nine starts at home this season. Richards faces a very inconsistent Tribe offense that has scored 3 or less run in 9 of their L/11 overall, and scored the fewest runs in the big leagues since June 1 with 174. The Tribe have scored three or fewer runs in 52 percent (54-for-104) of their games this season. Things dont look to get better tonight , as no.1 offensive threat 2nd baseman Jason Kipnis is expected to miss because of a nagging injury.
Under is 7-2 in Indians last 9 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.Under is 35-14-3 in Angels last 52 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Brandon Lee
Chicago Cubs +120
Great value here with Chicago, who is riding a 5-game winning streak with their ace Jon Lester on the mound. Lester has been dominant of late, posting a 1.61 ERA and 0.717 WHIP over his last 3 starts. During this 3 start stretch, Lester has allowed just 14 hits in 22 1/3 innings and has 27 strikeouts to just 2 walks. As good as the Pirates have been at home and even with Liriano on the mound, I think Chicago is worth the gamble at this price.
Bruce Marshall
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: San Diego Padres
Even after Sunday's loss in Miami, the Padres have won 7 of 9, and starter Tyson Ross, now beyond trade rumors, improved to 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA over his last eight starts following last Wednesday's win over the Mets in New York. As for the Brewers, they are skidding again, losing five in a row and unable to get much going offensively, hitting .200 with one homer while totaling 15 runs during a 1-8 stretch.
Chase Diamond
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +120
This game has the 52-54 Rays at the 50-53 White Sox. Both teams are on the edge of contending for a playoff spot or being left in the dust and this series in my eyes will eliminate one or the other. White Sox have won 7 of their last 10 but we have a edge in Rays pitcher Nathan Karns here tonight. A huge 70% of the public are backing the home Sox here yet this line has gone from -135 to -118 very curious move.
Joe Gavazzi
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: San Diego Padres -105
If Peralta pitches as well as he did in his 1st game back from the 60-day DL (left oblique), this play may have an issue. In that outing, Peralta worked 6+ IP, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits in a 5-2 victory. But that is about all the Brewers have got going for them these days! They have traded away their top 3 bats at the trade deadline. Following a 24-15 surge, Milwaukee is now on a 2-10 slide. In the previous 9 games, they have scored just 15 runs with a .200 BA. They have lost 5 consecutive games and are an MLB worst 20-33 at home. Despite last night’s WOW by Miami over the Padres, they remain a surprisingly 51-54 due to a recent 12-5 run. An improbable Wild Card spot remains their hope, as they did not trade off their top pitchers at the deadline. Ross certainly qualifies as one of those. In his 8 previous starts, Ross is 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA. Unless Peralta pitches lights out, the Padres have a good chance to win this game.
Doug Upstone
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +1½ -160
Play On road underdogs on the 1.5 run line like Arizona (With Money Line Range of -190 to -135) with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game, against NL opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season. These underdogs are able to hang around against opposing pitchers like this and even win games in this situation. Most importantly for our concerns they are 51-12 on the RL the past five seasons.
Rob Veno
New York at Miami
Play: Miami +100
New York’s three-game weekend sweep of Washington has vaulted them into a first place tie in the NL East and created a buzz of new confidence and expectations. Front office work prior to the trade deadline last Friday has upgraded personnel in key spots and proved to the team they’re committed to winning this year. Continuing the current high and consistently maintaining a playoff level of play is the next step for the Mets who travel to Miami to face a Marlins team which is 19 games below .500. It’s a bit easier for New York to perform when they roll out aces Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard for a three-game home stand but now they take to the road where they’re 17-32 on the season in a setting that won’t be nearly as emotionally charged as Citi Field was the past three days. There is also the fact that tonight’s starter Bartolo Colon has been lousy away from home all season and overall hasn’t been that good anywhere recently. Colon is 3-6 on the road in his nine starts with a 5.57 ERA and he’s 0-5 in his last five with a 6.83 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. He lost his only start here in Marlins Park this year going 6.2 IP while allowing 9 hits and 4 ER. The team is 0-7 in his last seven starts anywhere sometimes due to poor outings and other times a lack of run support. Conversely, Miami starter Tom Koehler has posted strong numbers since mid-June allowing just 43 baserunners in his last 45 IP which includes a rough outing last Wednesday versus Washington. Overall. Koehler’s statistics over this solid stretch are 7 GS, 6 quality starts, 2.40 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and only 1 HR allowed every 11.25 IP. He was torched by the Mets back in April in Flushing Meadows but at home this season he’s 4-2 (2 no decisions) with a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Bullpens favor the Mets here but not enough to overcome what looks to be a favorable home underdog situation. Marlins haven’t shown any quit on the season so they’re worth a look here.
GoodFella
Tampa Bay 1st Half
I like Rays SP Karns quite a bit and have had success picking my spots backing him, including his last start. He's given up 2 runs or less in 6 of his L/7 starts & I trust him to limit this WSOX lineup tonight. Quintana takes the ball for the WSOX this evening. He does not walk many batters, but he has just one win at home this season, and he has pitched better when he takes the ball on the road. The Rays are more potent vs LH pitching and I do look for Karns to out pitch Quintana this evening. I am going to take the bullpen(s) out of the equation here, as the WSOX do have an edge over Tampa in the pen(s). SO, I shall fire away on the 1st 5 Innings, instead of the full game.