Dave Essler
Arizona +125
Let's do this - what follows is my take last night - Pollock is on for Arizona - so if we get a "reasonably" Godley, Arizona has most other advantages. The final straw was offense, and I know that Nats just played the Mets and that pitching staff, but before that they played the Fish, and only once in the last six games have they scored more than TWO runs. The one thing we do know is that the Nats are going to be glad to get home, losing a series in New York, and playing on Sunday Night in a crazy atmosphere. One thing I have always held against Washington is their mental toughness, or lack thereof. Sending Fister to the mound is almost a crapshoot, but the one thing we might reasonably conclude is that he'll need the bullpen. He hasn't pitched past the sixth inning in his last five starts, and until he beat the Fish last week, Washington had lost four of his five previous starts since he came back. Normally, I'd look to back Arizona against a left handed pitcher, but interestingly enough, Fister is allowing RIGHT handed batters to hit .367 against him in 146 at bats this season. Arizona played Houston fairly tough on Sunday and their bullpen was once again very solid. The D-backs had the hits, but not when they need them to, and the top third of their order went 0-12. Godley has shown he can win on the road, but has had great run support. He shutout the Brewers at home in his first start and was marginal at best in Seattle, allowing two home runs. Washington's bullpen has been very good of late, and they've needed to be. Going into Sunday nights' game, the Nationals had only had double-digit hits ONCE since July 12th, or 16 games. Arizona has NOT been a bad road team, and Washington has fared better against LHP (W/L record) than RHP. The variables here are more the starters than anything else, which is a bit unusual. Not sure which Fister and who knows whether the Nationals "spot" and not seeing Godley is a factor. Arizona still in the playoff hunt, and as long as they think they are, then they are, and their only really bad loss in quite some time was that 9-2 loss against Kuechel on Saturday.
Chris Jordan
The Nationals took it on the chin this past weekend, looking like another victim of Ronda Rousey's. The Mets swept their way into first place, and even though they're still percentage points behind Washington in the National League East, I don't think anyone would argue which team is performing better right now.
The Nationals need to step their game up, as they're looking like a team about to fold. The Arizona Diamondbacks arrive, and this is a good team for Washington to rebound against. The Diamondbacks have lost four straight in D.C., and 16 of the last 21 meetings overall.
Washington really can't afford to keep losing at this point, so the value is laying the chalk here. Because they're mired in a 2-5 slide overall, I don't want to chance a thing with a premium play, but I will go with the comp play here, and monitor the Nats for a money-making play throughout the week.
1* WASHINGTON
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: San Diego at MILWAUKEE (8u, -115)
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - San Diego arrives in Milwaukee for a clash of the mediocre, but the pitching matchup is far from mediocre, with the Padres' Tyson Ross taking on the Brewers' Wily Peralta. This should be surprisingly entertaining.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is San Diego's Ross, who was supposedly on the trading block last month, before the deadine, but is still donning San Diego gear. He steps to the hill after allowing his first home run in 17 starts - a franchise record. He still picked up a win over the Mets, pitching through five innings allowing two hits and one run. He will be at his best in this one.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - Peralta should respond well here, as he showed very little rust in his return from a two-month stint on the disabled list. He touched 96 miles per hour during six-plus innings at San Francisco, where he looked good in his first Major League outing since May 22. Play this one under, as the two get into a nice little duel.
1* UNDER
Brad Wilton
Monday's comp play is the Astros over the Rangers.
After sweeping away their nearest division-rival, Los Angeles earlier in the week, the Astros took 2 of 3 off of the Diamondbacks in Interleague action over the weekend.
Look for the winning to continue against a Texas team that is on a little bit of an uptick with wins in 4 of their last 5 games overall.
Lance McCullers just allowed one run in his 7 innings of work for the win against the Angels his last time out. He will need to be just as good against Texas, especially with Colby Lewis sporting some dominant numbers in his career against Houston (7-1 with a 1.91 ERA vs. the 'Stros!).
Houston has cashed in 10 of their last 12 games when listed as the favorite, and I will back them tonight in the series opener.
4* HOUSTON
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Orioles and Athletics Under the total with Tyler Wilson and Jesse Chavez scheduled to start.
Tyler Wilson is back with the big club and filling in for the injured Chris Tillman tonight. This will be Wilson's first appearance since June 19th, and he is 1-1 with a 2.12 in his 5 overall appearances this season.
Jesse Chavez is just 2-4 with a 5.75 ERA over his last 7 starts, but at home he just tossed 6 scoreless innings to lower his ERA in Oakland to 2.33 for the season.
Oakland has played 4 in a row, and 7 of their last 8 Under the total, and they are on an overall Under run of 19-7-2 their last 28 contests.
O's-A's open low on Monday.
3* BALTIMORE-OAKLAND UNDER
Scott Delaney
My complimentary winner for Monday is on the Oakland Athletics, over the Baltimore Orioles. Now pay attention, in this one, I want you listing ONLY Baltimore's Tyler Wilson, who gets the nod after being called up from Triple-A for a spot start in place of Chris Tillman. The right-hander is a suitable replacement for Tillman, who is recovering from a left ankle sprain, but I don't know if this is the right spot for him.
Oakland is never a safe place to pitch, especially for a young gun. Wilson has appeared in five games for Baltimore this season, making a start on May 28, but he lost that game. He might be better suited for the bullpen.
I'd rather invest in the home team here, as I think the A's are going to get the bats going early.
5* OAKLAND
Cajun Sports
Chicago Cubs (+) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Chicago Cubs travel to the Steel City for a three-game weekday set against the home town Pirates. The boys from the Second City have just played a four-game set in Milwaukee against the Brewers but they will be headed home after this series. The Pirates just completed a seven-game road swing of their own finishing in the Queen City over the weekend with a four game set against the Reds. The Cubs will send Jon Lester to the bump with his 2-0 record an ERA of 1.61 over his last three outings. The Pirates will counter with Francisco Liriano who is also 2-0 over his last three outings with an ERA of 2.50. Our powerful MLB database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to play on the Cubs in Game One of this series. We want to play ON MLB teams when their starter struck out at least nine batters in his last start. Jon Lesters last start came against the Rockies and he struck out fourteen in a 3 to 2 victory. The system has a record of 1802-1443 SU for a profit of +1947 Units. We will back Lester and the Cubs on Monday night in the Steel City.