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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday August 31,2009

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Vernon Croy
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Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
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We are actually getting very good value here Monday night with the Athletics at home who are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the Royals. The Royals are just 0-6 in Luke Hochevar's (6-7, 5.52 ERA) last 6 starts and they are just 3-8 in his last 11 road starts. The Royals are just 6-25 in their last 31 games against a lefty starter and they are just 1-5 in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record. Hochevar has allowed more than 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts and I look for the Athletics to hit him hard Monday night. Take the Oakland Athletics Monday night.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:14 am
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Frank Jordan
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
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The two starting pitchers for this game are a combined 17-17 but both have ERAs under 4. The don't seem to get the run support from their respected teams good offenses on their turns to pitch. Jarrod Washburn fairly new to the Tigers has had the Seattle offense backing him most of the year and loves the new offense behind him who has more power. Look for a low scoring game as these pitchers are good and that is how the series is going with the Tigers winning again on Monday to take the series 3-1. Play Detroit

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:15 am
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Cajun Sports
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LAA Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: LAA Angels
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The LA Angels travel north for the start of a seven-game road trip that begins on Monday night in Seattle they will play three against the Mariners and then on to Kansas City for a four-game set against the Royals before returning home. With a 9 to 1 victory on Sunday over the A’s they were able to manage a split in that four-game series and hope that the momentum from that win carries over here. LA is 39-26 (+17.0) on the road this season and 34-19 (+9.0) during the second half of the season this season. The Angels have been solid against left-handed starters posting a record of 27-14 (+12.1) against them. They have also done a good job in this series going 33-18 (+11.8) the last three seasons and 17-9 (+7.9) when playing in Seattle. Finally they will send Joe Saunders to the bump with his 6-1 record against the Mariners and an ERA of 3.60. We will back the visiting Angels here as they get the Game One victory over the host Mariners on Monday night in Seattle.
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Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Angels 4 Seattle Mariners 1

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:16 am
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Marc Lawrence
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers open a critical four-ame series with the Diamondbacks tonight when Randy Wolf opposes Doug Davis in a battle of left-handers at Chavez Ravine. Moyer enters tonight game knowing he is an eye-popping 17-3 in his last 20 team starts in August. He's also 15-4 his last 19 team starts at home and 11-4 in his career team starts against Arizona. With Davis just 2-6 in his last 8 road team starts and 0-3 with an 11.04 ERA in his last three starts in this park, we'll stay at home the Wolf and the Dodgers here tonight.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:16 am
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MTI Sports
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Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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The Angels are 0-6 as a favorite in the first game of the series and the Mariners are 14-1 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks. Consider Seattle.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:18 am
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Black Widow
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1* on Tampa Bay Rays -105
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This has been a back-and-forth series between the Rays and Tigers. Detroit took Game 1 and Game 3 while the Rays won Game 2. We foresee the Rays taking Game 4 to cap off a series split Monday behind Ace James Shield who has posted a solid 3.81 ERA on the year. Jarrod Washburn was victimized in his last home start. Washburn gave up 6 earned runs, including 4 home runs, against the Seattle Mariners on August 20th. Shields has never lost against the Tigers, going 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against Detroit, all Tampa Bay victories. Take the Rays on the Money Line.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:18 am
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Info Plays
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3* on L.A. Dodgers -180

Reasons why the Dodgers win:
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1.) It’s been a wise move to back Randy Wolf all season, especially in the second half. The Dodgers are 5-0 in Wolf’s last 5 starts overall, 8-1 in his last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, and 14-3 in Wolf’s last 17 starts as a home favorite. He has been the Ace of this team all season long. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks are 0-8 in Doug Davis’ last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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2.) Wolf is 10-0 against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 3 seasons. What more trends do you need about this guy? He doesn’t have letdowns against the worst teams in the game, instead he ups his performance. The Diamondbacks fall into that "worst team" category tonight. Bet the Dodgers at home.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:19 am
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John Martin
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1 Unit on Houston Astros +144
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The Chicago Cubs are in shambles right now. The Astros haven’t been playing much better, but with Ace Roy Oswalt going to the bump I will take advantage of this excellent value price on Houston Monday. Oswalt hasn’t missed a beat this year, going 7-5 with a 3.86 ERA on the season. Rich Harden has been a disappointment in front of Cubs fans at home. Harden is just 3-5 with a 6.13 ERA at home this season. He has given up 8 earned runs in his last 2 home starts vs. the Astros in just 11.7 innings. Oswalt is 24-5 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season since 1997. Better yet, Oswalt is 42-7 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997 Cash in with Houston as the underodg.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:19 am
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Craig Trapp
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans
Play: Under 39
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This game has under written all over it. Brett Farve looks to play most of the first half and by all accounts is still trying to learn the offense. Even better the MIN defense looks to be in midseason form holding there opponents to only 16 pts thus far in preseason. The Vikings in fact have not allowed a team to score above 16 pts in a preseason game since 2008. In the last two years the under is 5-1 in the Vikes Preseason game. Houston offense has struggled being held in check by a poor NO team in there last start. But the HOU defense has looked good in spurts and with the Vikes struggling on offense should be able to hold them in check. The backups for both of these teams have really struggled and should help us hold the under late. SCORE MIN 17 - HOU 13

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:20 am
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Rob Vinciletti
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New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: New York Yankees -1½
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The Yanks qualify in a solid system that plays on road favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored win of 2 or more runs,that are taking on an opponent off a home win that scored 5+ runs.This system is 11-1 and wins by 3.6 rpg.The Yankees have a solid A.Pettite going tonight.Pettite has won his last 3 starts and the Yanks have won 9 of his 12 road starts this year.In his career Pettite is 21-9 with a 3.69 era vs the Orioles.Back in July he dominated the Orioles going 7+ innings allowing just 1 run.For Baltimore tonight its righty J.Guthrie taking the mound tonight.He has been a major disappointment this year.In his home starts the Orioles are 4-9 and he has a 5.31 era.Guthrie has allowed 11 earned runs in 19 innings vs the Yanks this year and an alarming 5 home runs in that span.The Yankees are 10-4 as a road favorite in this range,while Baltimore is just 1-4 as a home dog in this range.NY.is averaging nearly 7 runs per game this past week,and could blow this one open quickly with their potent offense.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:21 am
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Brad Diamond Sports

Play: Los Angeles over Seattle

Look for lefty Saunders to continue improving in a difficult road test up in the North Country this evening. Also, don’t miss my key total move that has supporting angles hitting a blazing 18-2.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:22 am
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EZWINNERS
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -172
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Randy Wolf has really been pitching well for the Dodgers. In his last three starts Wolf is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. Wolf also has solid career numbers against the Diamondbacks. This season Wolf is 2-0 in three starts against Arizona and 8-3 in his career against the Diamondbacks. Arizona's starting pitcher Doug Davis has pitched respectably this season, but Davis puts way too many runners on base via the walk for my liking. Arizona is only 1-9 in their last ten games in LA and just 7-20 in Davis' last 27 road starts. Play on the Dodgers.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:23 am
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Hentai Sports
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New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: New York Yankees -1.5
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The Yankees have a solid A.Pettite going tonight.Pettite has won his last 3 starts and the Yanks have won 9 of his 12 road starts this year.In his career Pettite is 21-9 with a 3.69 era vs the Orioles.Back in July he dominated the Orioles going 7+ innings allowing just 1 run.For Baltimore tonight its righty J.Guthrie taking the mound tonight.He has been a major disappointment this year.In his home starts the Orioles are 4-9 and he has a 5.31 era.Guthrie has allowed 11 earned runs in 19 innings vs the Yanks this year and an alarming 5 home runs in that span.The Yankees are 10-4 as a road favorite in this range,while Baltimore is just 1-4 as a home dog in this range.NY.is averaging nearly 7 runs per game this past week,and could blow this one open quickly with their potent offense.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:25 am
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DAVE COKIN
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KANSAS CITY ROYALS / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
TAKE: OAKLAND ATHLETICS
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Luke Hochevar hasn't been all that bad lately, but the KC righty cannot buy a win. The Royals have lost each of his last seven starts, and he's also 0-3, 11.85 in his three lifetime appearances against Oakland. Gio Gonzalez has been off and on for the A's, but has a good chance for a good result here against that feeble KC attack. The A's are the choice to notch the win at home this evening.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:26 am
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JIM FEIST
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WASHINGTON NATIONALS / SAN DIEGO PADRES
TAKE: SAN DIEGO PADRES
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If you ever DIDN'T want to watch a game on T.V., this is likely the matchup. Arguably the two worst teams in baseball go head to head here on Monday as the Nationals make the trek out west to face the Padres. These two clubs have the biggest negative run differentials in the NL. That's not welcome news to Livan Hernandez who must feel like he just went from the penthouse that was New York to the outhouse in Washington when he moved over to the Nationals. Hernandez is a old veteran whose best days are behind him. Hernandez has given up 20 runs in his last 20 innings and it doesn't look to get any better as he now is on the worst pitching staff in baseball. Hopefully Livan won't be looking over his shoulder to the Nat's pen for any help in his games, because there isn't any ink in that pen to help him out. After a month or so with the Nationals, Hernandez might just be ready to retire. Tim Stauffer has just 27 games under his young major league belt, a far cry from the 406 of Hernandez. Stauffer has a decent ERA at 4.11 on the season, but playing for the Padres has resulted in a 2-6 record. What we like about this game on Monday is that someone has to win and the Padres get the prize of hitting the batting practice pitching of the Nationals. They don't get many runs, but even the Padres will find home plate here on Monday. Take the Padres, go enjoy a movie out and come home to cash your ticket.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 7:27 am
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