Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota +3' at HOUSTON
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FREE winner on Sunday as the Phillies edge the Braves 3-2 in Philadelphia. Tonight I've got a comp winner coming on the Vikings as they are in Houston for the final Week 3 preseason contest.
I'm loving the Vikings in this one because they are tired of all the off-field stuff brought on by the signing of Brett Favre and they just want to get on the field and unleash some frustration. Especially loving them because all 11 defensive starters will be on the field for the first half, and this is a beast of a defense.
Jared Allen and Pat Williams will be back on the line so don't look for the Texans to be able to run the ball and look for a lot of pressure on Matt Schaub when he drops back to pass.
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As for the offense, Favre has had a lot of work this week to get up to speed on the offense and he'll get all the snaps in the first half. That will give him time to put up a couple scores. Then look for the fun to begin in the second half as Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson battle for the backup QB spot and essentially a spot on this roster. Those two guys are both quality QBs and to give them action against backup defenders will lead to some Minnesota points.
Houston got drilled by the Saints 38-14 last week at home and after Schaub leaves in the third quarter, it will be Dan Orlovsky for the rest of the game. Rex Grossman is on the roster but won't suit up for this one with a nagging hamstring injury.
The Vikings went on the road to beat the Colts 13-3 in the opening game of the exhibition campaign and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five preseason games. They are also 5-2 ATS in exhibition road games and 5-2 ATS as a 'dog. Meanwhile Houston is just 1-5 SU in Week 3 action since 2003 and 1-5-2 ATS as a favorite since 2004.
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This one will be all Minnesota as the Vikings defense dominates the contest. Play Minnesota.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Drew Gordon
LA Angels -140 at SEATTLE
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Now a 50-36 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Twins over the Rangers 5-3 Sunday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the LA Angels/Seattle match up...
Great spot to back the Halos, as they're coming into this series determined to get back on track after splitting 4 games at Oakland in their last one. Angels offense makes up for a lot, but tonight, they've got the edge at the plate AND on the mound with southpaw Joe Saunders getting the nod.
If there's one team Joe Saunders loves to pitch against, its the Mariners, whom he's 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA against in his last 6 starts, incl. 2-0 with a lockdown 0.64 ERA in two starts this season! The last time he saw them, he tossed 7 scoreless at Safeco May 21st, and after a decent effort right off the DL vs the Tigers Wednesday, I'm expecting another strong start tonight.
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Opposing Saunders is the Mariners rookie southpaw Lucas French, who's 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA since joining Seattle. His numbers at Safeco are rock-solid, but the rook is going to run into trouble against a potent Angels offense that's had little problem dealing with lefties on the road. Halos are 17-7 versus lefties on the road this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game in that spot, batting .283 in the process! For as good as he's looked at times, French will be tested early and often in this one.
Bottom line, while I'll admit that the Mariners are far more dangerous at home, that has not been the case when "Mariners-killer" Joe Saunders has started. The Angels lefty seemingly always bring his "A" game against Seattle, and I expect more of the same tonight. On the flip side, rook Lucas French is biting off more than he can chew against the Halos offense, as Hunter and company take care of business at Safeco late Monday.
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Take the LA Angels behind Saunders over Seattle and French in this MLB match up.
2♦ LA ANGELS
Dominic Fazzini
L.A. Angels -140 at SEATTLE
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I scored a winner with my complimentary play Sunday as the Marlins topped San Diego 6-4. That boosted my record over my last 30 free plays to 18-12. Let's keep things rolling into the work week now!
Angels starter Joe Saunders (10-7, 5.27 ERA) pitched pretty well Wednesday in his first outing since spending 2 1/2 weeks on the disabled list with tightness in his throwing shoulder. The left-hander allowed two runs and four hits with six strikeouts in five innings of a 4-2 victory over Detroit.
Saunders pitched well the first two months of the season, but struggled after that before finally admittiing his shoulder wasn't right and going on the DL. The 2008 AL All-Star is 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA in six starts against Seattle over the past two seasons, including going 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two outings earlier this year.
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Luke French (4-3, 3.92) is 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five starts with the Mariners since being acquired from Detroit on July 31. The rookie left-hander gave up three runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings Wednesday in a 5-3 win over Oakland.
I expect Los Angeles, which is 28-14 against southpaws, to have a big night against French, who has never faced the Angels. If Saunders pitches like he was in April and May, when he was 6-3 with a 3.26 ERA, Los Angeles should have an easy time tonight. Take the Angels in this one.
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4♦ L.A. ANGELS
Karl Garrett
Toronto +160 at TEXAS
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For Monday, underdog winner goes out on Toronto over Texas.
Brett Cecil is 0-3 over his last 4 starts, but his counterpart Derek Holland is coming off an alarming 6 run, 6 inning shell-job at the Yankees, and I have a feeling Mr. Holland may be giving up a few more tonight.
The Blue Jays have been sticky for the Rangers this season, as Toronto has won 4 of the 6 games played. Toronto has also enjoyed swinging the bats at Arlington, as they have won 2 of the 3 played there this season, and are 6-3 since last season at Texas.
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Toronto has no pressure on them at all, while Texas is trying desperately to hang in there in both the AL West, and the Wild Card chase.
G-Man feels this price is a tad inflated.
Take the underdog Jays to continue to be a thorn in the Rangers side.
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1♦ TORONTO
Sports Gambling Hotline
Arizona at LOS ANGELES
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The White Sox-Yankees OVER on Sunday makes it a 27-11-2 comp play run.
For Monday, play the UNDER in the Arizona-Los Angeles meeting at Dodger Stadium.
Both teams held UNDER on Sunday, as the Diamondbacks have now played LOW in 2 straight, and 5 of their last 8.
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Sunday's UNDER for the Dodgers puts them on a 9-1-1 UNDER clip their last 11 games.
As for series meetings, the Snakes and Bums have been to a tune of 6-2-1 the last 9 meetings, including 3 of the 4 meetings in Los Angeles.
Doug Davis is coming off 8 innings of 3 run ball, while Randy Wolf has allowed just 5 earned runs over his last 22 innings of work.
Our feeling is runs will be at a premium this Monday night.
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Play on the UNDER.
4♦ UNDER
Tony Weston
The Dodgers couldn’t do what they should have done and they end up costing us.
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Well, tonight, I’m cashing in as I’m taking the Minnesota Twins at home against the visiting White Sox.
The White Sox come into this game on an absolute downward spiral recently, having lost 7 of their last 8 games and having gone 8-15 their last 23 games overall.
On the road Chicago has gone just 1-7 its last 8 away from home and has lost 19 of its last 25 away from U.S. Cellular Field.
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That run includes a 1-5 mark Chicago’s last 6 games in Minnesota, including four straight losses at the Twins. After starting the season 4-1 against Minnesota, the Sox have won just 1 of their last 7 meetings against their AL Central rival.
The Twins, on the other hand, come into this game having won 9 of their last 12 games overall, including 4 of their last 6 in front of the home crowd.
It’ll be more of the same tonight as Minnesota makes it five in a row against the White Sox.
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3♦ TWINS
JIMMY THE MOOSE
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
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Tampa has lost 3 of their last 4 while the Tigers have won 4 of their last 6. Tampa send Shields, 8-10 to the mound this afternoon and on the season the Rays are 12-15 in games he's started. The Rays have lost 5 of his last 7 starts. In his last 25 road starts vs. a team with a winning record the Rays are 7-18. Tampa is 6-20 in his last 26 starts as a road dog. Detroit is 37-17 in their last 54 home games. The Tigers are 21-8 in their last 29 games as a home favorite. Detroit is 21-6 in their last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Detroit is 4-0 in Washburn's last 4 starts. Play on the Detroit Tigers -.
Tom Freese
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Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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The Angels are 17-4 their last 21 road games vs. lefty starters and they are 48-23 their last 71 games overall. Los Angeles is 25-12 in the last 37 road starts made by Joe Saunders and they are 35-16 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Seattle is 20-41 their last 61 games vs. the Angels and they are 0-4 their last 4 games as home underdogs of +110 to +150. The Mariners are 1-5 their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. PLAY ON LOS ANGELES ANGELS -
JR TIPS
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Astros at Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs have lost 15 of 23 since Aug.5th to fall 10 games back of the Cardinals although they still have an outside shot of making the playoffs after they loss 4-1 to the New York Mets on Sunday to remain 5 1/2 games behind Colorado and San Francisco for the wildcard spot. The Astros have dropped six of seven and are 11-17 since their last visit to Wrigley and arrive in Chicago after being swept at Arizona falling to 5-17 on the road since July 18th. The Astros have lost four of six games there this year at Chicago where Derrek Lee is batting .442 with four home runs, 10 RBIs and a .531 on-base percentage in 14 home games against Houston since the start of last season. He is also is batting .357 with a homer, double and three RBIs against Roy Oswalt (7-5, 3.86 ERA) since 2008. Oswalt enters Monday's start after allowing three runs and a season high tying 10 hits in six innings of Wednesday's 3-2 loss to St. Louis, his first defeat since June 19th. The Astros have eight wins in the right-hander's last 10 starts. Oswalt is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA in three starts against the Cubs this season, and 2-6 with a 3.77 ERA in his last 10 outings against them. The Cubs counter with Rich Harden (8-7, 3.99 ERA), who has been leading their rotation by going 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 50 innings over eight starts since the All-Star break.The right-hander allowed two runs and five hits in six innings of a 9-4 win over Washington on Wednesday.Harden is 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA in two starts against the Astros in 2009. Oswalt has been stellar all season and has been almost perfect to win 8 out of 10 games with this Houston team. This is a great value at +145 tonight with Oswalt on the mound.
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TAKE HOUSTON ASTROS+145
Matt Fargo
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Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
Play: Over
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The last time these two teams met, we saw a 1-0 final and that made it four straight meetings that have stayed under the posted total. Times have changed since June we will see some offense tonight as the situation from the weekend calls for it. Toronto is coming off a series in Boston where the bats were pretty much held in check and that has been the case at Fenway Park all season as it is averaging just 2.0 rpg this season and the Blue Jays have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of the 15 meetings this season. Texas meanwhile is coming off a rough roadtrip where it went 4-5 and the offense averaged only 4.2 rpg and that was with two games in New York that saw 7 and 10 runs scored. The Rangers are back home where they are hitting .276 on the season, good for sixth best in baseball. Toronto is hitting .274 on the road which is fifth best in the Majors. Neither starting pitcher is having a lot of recent success. Brent Cecil goes for the Blue Jays and the lefty has strung together four straight non-quality outings while posting a 7.10 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over that span. On the road this season, he has a 5.45 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in six starts those numbers jump to 5.88 and 1.73 respectively in his nine nighttime starts. Texas counters with Derek Holland who is coming off a rough outing against the Yankees where he allowed six runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings. That knocked his ERA up to 4.95 on the season and increased his YTD WHIP to 1.40 which is right at the cutoff for making this a play. At home, he has been struggling all year, posting a 5.70 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in eight starts, only two of which have been quality performances. I expect both pitchers to struggle once again tonight as the offenses tag the southpaw starters.
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3* Over Toronto Blue Jays/Texas Rangers
LT Profits
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
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The Detroit Tigers have taken two of the first three games of this series, but we look for the Tampa Bay Rays to even things up in this early Monday matinee.
James Shields is an unlucky 8-10 for the Rays this season, as he probably deserves a better fate with his 3.81 ERA. Granted, Shields usually pitches better at home, but he has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three road starts. In fact, he has now allowed three earned or less in four of his last five starts overall, and perhaps most importantly, he has yet to allow more than three runs in any if his four starts vs. the Tigers over the last two years.
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Now Jarrod Washburn is 9-7 with a 3.23 ERA, but for whatever reason, he has not been impressive since being acquired by the Tigers from the Seattle Mariners. He has allowed five earned runs or more in three of his five starts as a Tiger, and even when he allowed only three runs in his last start vs. the Los Angeles Angels, he still permitted 10 baserunners in sic innings.
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Furthermore, the Rays have been at their best vs. southpaws over the last 10 games, batting over 50 points higher vs. left-handers (.289) than vs. right-handers (.238) over this current span. We look for Tampa Bay to continue their onslaught vs. lefties against Washburn here, and give Shields enough support for the victory.
Pick: Rays -110
Gina
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Take the Yankees with veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte (11-6, 4.18 ERA) on the hill. New York has won the last seven meetings versus Baltimore and Pettitte's last six starts against them. The right-hander is 25-6 with a 3.65 ERA in his career against the Orioles. Meanwhile, Baltimore has dropped five of its last 7 home games and counters with Jeremy Guthrie (9-12, 5.26). The right-hander is 2-0 with a 4.12 ERA in his last three starts, but 1-2 with a 5.21 ERA in three outings against the Yankees this year, 3-4 with a 4.82 ERA in nine career starts. The Orioles are 2-5 in Guthrie’s last 7 starts against the Yankees. New York is 7-2 in Pettitte's last 9 starts versus Orioles at Camden Yards.
New York Yankees -185
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Astros +142
The Cubs are struggling right now and they are way overpriced today with Harden on the hill at home. Harden has been solid for the Cubs most of the season, but he has done his damage on the road. At home, he is 3-5 and carries a 6.13 ERA. This is a fantastic price to get a quality pitcher like Oswalt. He has been pitching very well of late. In fact, the Astros are 8-2 in Oswalt's last 10 starts. Oswalt is 34-9 against the money line in August games since 1997 and 18-6 against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. I'll play the Astros for 1 Unit showing great value today.
The Spread
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
Pick: Detroit
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Chi White Sox are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chi White Sox's last 12 games
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Pick: CHI White Sox
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
Pick: Washington
Bryan Leonard
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati GM 1
The Pirates are bringing up their top minor league pitching prospect Daniel McCutchen to make his major league debut today against the Reds. The young righty came over in the offseason in the Xavier Nady deal. The team really likes his competitive spirit and his numbers have been solid this year in Triple A. He was 13-6 with a 3.47 ERA pitching in Indianapolis. The Reds have never faced him which gives a big edge to the youngster.
On the other side of the spectrum the Reds are starting rehashed veteran Kip Wells. The former Cardinal and Rockie has been in and out of the league for the past few seasons, and for good reason. In his last seven starts at the major league level he has allowed 35 earned runs in only 34.2 innings of work. The last time he faced the Pirates was in 2007 and he permitted 6 earned runs on 10 hits in 3.1 innings of work.
The Pirates are still playing with a fire even after trading away all their better known players. This has given the young kids a chance to shine and they are taking full advantage. The wrong team is favored here and we swoop in with gusto.
PLAY PITTSBURGH GM 1