SPORTS ADVISORS
San Francisco (58-47) at Houston (52-53)
The surging Giants begin a brief three-game road trip when they hand the ball to All-Star Matt Cain (12-2, 2.12 ERA) at Minute Maid Park, while the Astros will counter with struggling southpaw Mike Hampton (6-8, 5.36).
San Francisco concluded a 6-1 homestand with Sunday’s 7-3 victory over the Phillies. However, prior to this recent run, the Giants had lost eight of 11 overall, including going 3-7 on the road. In fact, they’re in a 3-9 funk as a visitor, but on the bright side, San Francisco is on upticks of 4-0 against the N.L. Central, 7-2 in series openers, 10-3 against lefty starters and 20-8 against teams with a losing record.
Houston halted a four-game losing skid in surprising fashion Sunday, riding rookie Bud Norris to a 2-0 victory at St. Louis. The Astros are still just 2-7 in their last nine overall, including two ugly losses to the Mets at home (10-3 and 8-3). Prior to losing those two to New York, Cecil Cooper’s club had won 12 of 15 at Minute Maid Park. Houston’s streaks include 20-9 against the N.L. West, 4-1 on Monday and 5-2 in series openers, but 1-4 against both winning clubs and right-handed starters.
San Francisco took two of three from the Astros at home a month ago, winning both games by a combined score of 22-0. However, Houston is still 7-2 in the last nine series meetings, including a four-game sweep at Minute Maid last season by the combined tally of 27-11.
The Giants have won five straight games with Cain on the bump, and the right-hander was brilliant in each game, allowing a total of four runs (three earned) in 31 1/3 innings (0.86 ERA). Cain hasn’t given up more than one earned run in any of his last six starts, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three road outings during this stretch. For the season, he’s 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 11 starts on the highway.
With Cain on the hill, the Giants are on runs of 16-5 overall, 6-2 on the road, 4-1 on Monday and 5-0 on the highway against losing teams. He’s faced Houston three times (two starts), going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA.
Hampton got lit up at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, allowing nine runs on eight hits and four walks in four inning of a 12-0 loss. Hampton has surrendered 23 runs (22 earned) in his last four starts covering just 19 innings (10.42 ERA), and the Astros lost three of those games by the combined score of 30-4.
The Astros are still 35-17 in Hampton’s last 52 trips to the mound overall – going way to back to his first stint with the club from 1994-99 – and 10-3 in his last 13 against the N.L. West, but they’ve lost seven of his last 10 at home. Nine of those home starts have come this year, with Hampton going 3-3 with a 5.04 ERA. He’s also 15-4 with a 3.59 ERA in his career against the Giants, including 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two contests in 2008.
The over is 4-1-1 in the last six Astros-Giants clashes, 4-1 in Houston’s last five home games and 12-5-1 in Hampton’s last 18 home starts. Conversely, the under for Houston is on streaks of 3-0 overall, 36-16-3 on Monday and 46-20-2 in series openers, while the Giants are on “under” tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-0 against the N.L. Central, 18-6-2 on the highway versus southpaw starters, 4-0 overall with Cain pitching and 4-0 with Cain working on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER
Milwaukee (52-53) at L.A. Dodgers (65-40)
The Dodgers return home after a weeklong road trip and open a three-game series with the Brewers. Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 2.76 ERA) is slated to toe the rubber for Los Angeles opposite Manny Parra (5-8, 6.50) in a battle of left-handers.
L.A. concluded a seven-game trip with Sunday’s 9-1 rout of the Braves. The Dodgers still lost four of seven on the trip and have followed up a five-game winning streak by losing six of their last 10. Still, Joe Torre’s club is on positive runs of 54-25 at home, 48-17 at home against losing squads, 23-9 overall versus teams with a sub-.500 record, 5-2 on Monday and 8-3 in series openers.
Milwaukee avoided a three-game sweep at lowly San Diego on Sunday with a 5-1 victory. Still, since July 1, the Brewers are mired in slumps of 10-18 overall, 5-9 on the highway and 2-5 against the N.L. West, and they’ve also lost four straight games against lefty starters and four consecutive series openers.
The Dodgers have had Milwaukee’s number in recent years, winning 35 of the last 51 meetings overall, including 19 of the last 26 played in Los Angeles. In the only other series this season between these teams, L.A. took two of three in Wisconsin three weeks ago.
Parra has followed up consecutive gems (one run allowed in 13 innings) with back-to-back disastrous outings, allowing nine runs on 19 hits in 11 innings in home games against the Braves (9-4 loss) and Nationals (7-5 win). The Brewers have come up empty in 20 of Parra’s last 27 starts overall (including seven of the last nine) and 13 of his last 16 on the highway, and they’ve lost four in a row to N.L. West opponents with Parra on the hill.
Parra is 3-5 with a 7.92 ERA on the road in nine road starts and 4-4 with a 7.22 ERA in night games. In two starts against the Dodgers (both last year), he gave up seven runs (five earned) on 17 hits, with the Brewers losing 6-4 at home and 5-3 on the road.
Kershaw twirled another masterpiece at St. Louis on Wednesday, scattering four hits and two walks while striking out seven over eight scoreless innings. He left with a 1-0 lead, but Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton blew the save and L.A. eventually lost 3-2 in 15 innings. Over his last nine starts, the 21-year-old southpaw has given up a total of six runs (five earned) in 56 2/3 innings, good for a 0.95 ERA. That includes a 7-4 win at Milwaukee on July 12, as he gave up a run on two hits in six innings, improving to 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts versus the Brewers.
Kershaw has been brilliant at Dodger Stadium in 2009, going 3-2 with a 1.75 ERA, allowing just one home run in 61 2/3 innings. Los Angeles is 7-2 in Kershaw’s last nine trips to the mound and 4-1 in his last five a home.
The Brewers carry “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 12-2-1 against lefty starters, 10-1 on Monday, 5-0 in series openers, 5-1 with Parra starting on the road and 8-1 with Parra opposing N.L. West foes. The “over” is also 4-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last six home contests, and six of the last eight series clashes between these clubs have cleared the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and OVER
DUNKEL
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to bounce back from yesterday's loss and build on their 4-0 record in Scott Kazmir's last 4 starts as a favorite between -110 and -150. Tampa Bay is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140).
Game 901-902: Washington at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Mock) 13.665; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.810
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150); Over
Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 16.037; Cincinnati (Harang) 12.710
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 3 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155); Over
Game 905-906: Arizona at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 17.551; NY Mets (Figueroa) 15.915
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-185); Over
Game 907-908: San Francisco at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 16.073; Houston (Hampton) 14.799
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over
Game 909-910: Atlanta at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 13.465; San Diego (Latos) 14.916
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over
Game 911-912: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 15.460; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+190); Over
Game 913-914: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.037; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 14.328
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Under
Game 915-916: Baltimore at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.325; Detroit (Verlander) 16.029
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-260); Under
Game 917-918: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Nippert) 14.914; Oakland (Anderson) 14.296
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Under
Vernon Croy
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San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros
Play: San Francisco Giants
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Take the San Francisco Giants on the Moneyline, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Giants have the superior pitcher on the mound Monday night. Matt Cain (12-2, 2.12 ERA) has pitched solid this season and he was 3-0 with an ERA of just 0.94 over 6 starts in July. The Giants are a perfect 9-0 in Cain's last 9 starts against a team with a losing record and they are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite on the road. The Giants are a red hot 6-1 in their last 7 games and Houston has dropped four of their last five games. Mike Hampton (6-8, 5.36) has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 9.97 and he has had control problems walking 10 batters over just 15.3 innings during those 3 starts. The Astros are 0-6 in Hampton's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record and they are just 1-6 in his last 7 starts when pitching with just 4 days rest. Take the San Francisco Giants Monday night.
Matt Fargo
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Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Texas Rangers
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The Rangers are four games back in the American League West and while many think that race is over, I give a lot of credit to Texas for hanging close during the Angels massive run of 17-3 over their last 20 games as the Rangers have gone 11-3 over their last 14 games. Texas is actually in better shape in the Wild Card race as it trails the Red Sox by just 2.5 games. The Rangers are one of the surprises in baseball as pitching was a major concern coming into the season but it has been strong throughout. Oakland lost its weekend series with the Blue Jays and this team is going nowhere. Offensively, it is one of the below average teams in the league but the pitching has been the problem of late. The starting pitching has an ERA of 7.41 over its last 10 games while the bullpen has posted a 5.16 ERA over that span. The A’s send Brett Anderson to the hill and he has been really strong of late as he has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts but surprisingly, the majority of that success came on the road. He has a 4.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home which are definitely decent but just three of his seven home starts have been quality outings with Oakland going 2-5 in those games. Dustin Nippert will be making his fourth start this season and while he has been anything but spectacular, he has been good enough to keep Texas in the game. This matchup is mainly about the teams and the value we get in the line that we get which is mostly affected by the starting pitching. The Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 road games against a team with a losing record while the A’s are 14-29 in their last 43 games against a team with a winning record. Also, Texas is 20-9 against division opponents this season.
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3* Texas Rangers
Frank Jordan
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Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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Kansas City spoiled James Shields no hit bid then promptly scored two runs in the 8th and 9th to win 4-1. Monday's series finally is a gem as 10-6 Zach Greinke up against 5-6 Scott Kazmir who is pitching well of late. Greinke still has an era of 2.08, but has lost each of his last three decisions. Kazmir is pitching well of late and coming off a win over the Yankees where he went 7 innings allowing just one run. Look for Tampa Bay to bounce back at home in a big way as they send Greinke to another loss behind Kazmir to throw another gem. Play Tampa Bay
Cajun Sports
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Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Rays and Royals take the field at the Trop for the fourth and final game of their series with Tampa leading 2 games to 1 after the Royals captured their first win on Sunday by a final score of 4 to 1. As far as importance is concerned this contest and this month are vital to the Rays if they are to repeat as AL Champs. They are involved in a very tight race in the AL East while the Royals will be spending their postseason at home. Tampa Bay is 57-47 on the season including 33-17 SU (+8.2) at the Trop. The Royals began the year doing something they seldom do, win but they fell back to earth rather rapidly and now find themselves in very familiar territory with a record of 40-63 SU (-23.2). Kansas City has struggled on the highway posting a record of 17-31 SU (-10.4) averaging a mere 3.4 runs per game with a batting average of 238. They will be sending one of the few bright spots for the team to the bump in Zack Greinke who is 10-6 SU with an ERA of 2.08 on the year. He has faced the Rays and Kazmir already this season back on July 18 in Kansas City losing 4 to 2. Greinke threw for 7 innings allowing one earned run on nine hits with seven strikeouts in the loss. The problem for Greinke is the Royals fail to score runs and their bullpen has an ERA of 4.09 on the road with a WHIP of 1.412. He will be facing a Rays team that averages 5.6 runs per game at home with a .275 BA and 5.5 runs per game versus right-handed starters. Kansas City is 6-21 their last 27 versus a team with a winning record, 6-18 their last 24 versus left-handed starters and 8-22 their last 30 when Greinke starts on the road versus a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay will send left-hander Scott Kazmir to the hill with his 5-6 SU record and ERA of 6.22. Even with the high ERA the Rays have managed to post a 9-6 SU record behind Kazmir this season. Kazmir has shown signs of improvement recently with an ERA of 3.32 while the Rays were 2-1 SU in those contests. The Rays are 77-32 their last 109 games when installed as a home favorite, 66-22 their last 88 home games when facing a right-handed starter, 19-7 their last 26 home games when Kazmir takes the bump, Kazmir is 4-0 his last 4 when installed as a home favorite in this price range and 15-2 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. We will back the host here as they field a much better team and need to win these types of games if they are to have any chance of repeating. Lay the chalk with the Rays as they take this series with a win on Monday afternoon at the Trop.
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Graded Selection: 2* Tampa Bay Rays 3 Kansas City Royals 2
Craig Trapp
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -1.5
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Verlander goes to the mound today and its just in time for a struggling DET team who have lost 5 out of last 7. He has won 4 out of his last 5 starts and in that time period has reduced his ERA to a very solid 3.19 on the year. Leading the league in strikeouts is bad news for BAL as this lineup strikes out a ton anyway. BAL can't win on the road with the worst record in the AL (16-34 road record). BAL looks to have thrown in the towel as they have lost 12 of last 16 games. This past weekend BAL gave up 28 runs in three games as they were miserable. Look for DET to get back into the swing of things today and score at least 7 runs. That will be plenty for us to win the run line today as Verlander will go 7 innings of shut out baseball. SCORE DET 7 - BAL 1
LT Profits
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
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Young Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers continues to be one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball, but although the Money Line is too pricey for our tastes here, we do expect him to key an Under at Dodger Stadium.
Kershaw has now remarkably allowed three earned runs or less in 14 straight starts and in 16 of his last 17 outings, and he allowed only four runs in the other effort. He dominated the Brewers the first time he faced them this year, allowing only one run and two hits in six innings, marking the second time in two career starts vs. Milwaukee that Kershaw has allowed exactly one run. He is catching a Brewers lineup that is batting just .197 vs. lefties the last 10 games.
If you factor in a Dodger bullpen that has a collective 3.31 ERA this season including 2.71 at home, the Brewers should be hard-pressed to exceed three runs tonight. That means that Milwaukee starter Manny Parra only needs to pitch decently for this game to stay Under. Parra has been erratic, but he has shown signs of coming around recently, such as consecutive starts vs. the Cardinals and Reds where he allowed one and zero runs respectively.
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Also, pitching in this stadium should help, as games in Dodger Stadium have produced a combined average of just 8.06 runs. Add in the fact that Kershaw has a microscopic 1.75 ERA at home, and you can shave a run or two off of that stadium average here, resulting in a safe Under.
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Pick: Brewers/Dodgers Under 8.5
Scott Rickenbach
Pittsburgh vs Washington
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This is a traditional "trap game" that could ensnare many O/U handicappers. On the surface it looks like an over and that's where many will likely end up looking here. That's because the Nationals Garrett Mock is 0-4 with a 7.09 ERA and the Pirates Charlie Morton has seen Pittsburgh lose five of his last seven starts. In this match-up of young hurlers whom both are still highly "doubted" you will likely see a number of "over players" come out of the woodwork for this one. The trouble with that theory here is that both of these pitchers are highly talented and both of these lineups are full of question marks. The Nationals have some impressive stats within their lineup but they continue to be a very inconsistent unit while the Pirates lineup has been shot full of holes after trading away talented players.
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Before this series with the Nationals, the Pirates had been held to two runs or less in 13 of their last 20 games. Also, this total is currently a 9 and only one game in the first three games in this series has eclipsed nine runs. Overall, Pittsburgh has been an "under team" and, as for the Nats, look for them to struggle with Morton here. He's got a respectable 3.72 ERA on the season and he's got good movement on his pitches and he continues to progress with his abilities as he gets further into his rookie season. Also, the Nationals have never faced him and Morton was especially impressive in his most recent outing. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Pittsburgh on Monday evening.
Greg Daraban
San Francisco at Houston
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Astros have lost 7 of 10. Giants have won 7 of 10.Cain still not getting much attention on Frisco staff as Lincecum and John still getting mor ink,but this guy can throw. Hampton once a big cog on Braves and Houston staff.San Fran has biggger weapon.
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Take San Francisco.
Red Dog Sports
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Arizona at NY Mets
Play New York Mets
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The Mets are 6-2 in their last 8 at home and the Arizona Diamondbacks are just 8-20 in the last 28 meetings. Dan Haren has pitched well this year but the Mets are worth the 1 unit play as big home underdogs.
Tom Freese
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Texas at Oakland
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Oakland is 5-2 in the last 7 starts made by Brett Anderson. The Athletics are 4-0 after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game. The Athletics are 5-1 their last 6 Monday games. Texas is 19-44 their last 63 road games vs. lefty starters. Texas is 3-9 their last 12 road games when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5. Starting pitcher Dustin Nippert has not pitched past the sixth inning in any of his 3 starts this year. PLAY ON OAKLAND -
Marc Lawrence
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Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
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The Athletics host the Rangers in the opener of a four-game A.L. West Division showdown when 21-year old southpaw Brett Anderson takes on 6'8" right hander Dustin Nippert at McAfee Coliseum in Oakland Monday night. Anderson enter in fine current form at 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA in his last seven team starts while Nippert counters with a 6.19 ERA in his last five starts. Back the better arm here as the A's to make it 6 straight home wins on Mondays here tonight.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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SF Giants @ Houston Astros
PICK: SF Giants -1.5
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Trying for a fourth straight victory, Matt Cain looks to become the NL’s first 13-game winner when the San Francisco Giants open a three-game road series with the Houston Astros on Monday night. Cain (12-2, 2.12 ERA) threw a three-hitter over nine innings in a 1-0, 10-inning win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday to finish 3-0 with an 0.94 ERA in six starts during July. Cain is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA against the Astros (52-53), who are coming off a 2-5 road trip, but have won the last four meetings between the teams in Houston. Mike Hampton has had a less than stellar season with the Astros; Hampton (6-8, 5.36) allowed a season-high nine runs and eight hits in four innings of a 12-0 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday. Hampton gave up six runs in the first inning of his last outing. In the first innings of his 18 starts this year, he has an ERA of 12.00, compared to 4.04 from the second inning on. Good value on the visiting side; look for SAN FRANCISCO to improve to 18-11 (+7.3 units) against left-handed starters!
MTi Sports
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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds are 9-0 when Aaron Harang starts as a home dog after throwing more than 100 pitches. Consider the Reds at a nice price.