Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday August, 6

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

When the Angels meet the A's in the opener of this three-game A. L. West division series in Oakland Monday evening, L. A. will send staff ace Jered Weaver to the mound knowing he is 6-1 with a 1.01 ERA in his last seven team starts in this series. Weaver is also in strong KW form with 24 strikeouts and 6 walks in his last four starts. With the Halos standing 4-1 their last five games in this park, look for Weaver to improve to 7-0 in his last seven road efforts here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Angels.

Ben Burns

Arizona vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Under

Six of the last eight meetings between these clubs have fallen below the total. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here.

Miley goes for the visitors. He's 12-6 with a stellar 2.98 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the season. He tossed eight dominant innings last time out, allowing just three hits and one run. He struck out seven, walking one. It marked the 19th straight time that he walked two or fewer batters.

Bedard had some trouble last time out. However, he was excellent in his previous two starts, allowing just one earned run in each of them.

The fact that Bedard struggled on the road last time out is no surprise. He's now got an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.76 WHIP on the road. He's been an entirely different pitcher at home though. In nine home starts, he's got a stellar 2.72 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He's given up 10 home runs on the road but only one at home. Consider the Under.

Rob Vinciletti

Nationals vs. Astros
Play: Over 8½

We want to play over for road favorites of -140 or more that are off a home favored win at -200 or higher and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a road loss. These game shave played over at a 78% clip the past few seasons. Houston has played over in 11 of 15 on Mondays. The Nationals are scoring 5 runs per game the past week. Jackson and Keuchel are going in this one and their numbers wont remind anyone of Carlton and Seaver. Take the over.

Jim Feist

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Texas Rangers

The Boston Red Sox have a shot at one of the WIld card spots in the A.L., just 4 1/2 games back. But to get one, they will have to climb over Tampa Bay, Baltimore, LA Angels, Oakland and Detroit. A tall task for a club that is just 5-5 over their last 10 games. The Rangers have opened up a 5 1/2 game lead over Oakland and six over the Angels in the AL West. Though the Rangers lost on Sunday to the Royals, they are still 4-1 in their last five games. Boston snapped it's four game losing streak with a win over the Twins on Sunday. Yu Darvish starts for the Rangers with a 11-7 record and 4.38 ERA. Aaron Cook will toe the rubber for the Sox with a 2-5 mark and 5.24 ERA. In his last three starts, Cook is 0-3, with a 9.00 era allowing 15 runs over 15 innings including six home runs. Big edge here to the Darvish in pitching, plus a Rangers club that is just the better team. Take Texas.

Dave Cokin

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
Pick: Chicago Cubs

Both teams are awful hitting lefties, but the Cubs have picked it up some lately. Not much to choose from between Wood and Stults, but there's some value at the price with the Cubs to beat San Diego tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Texas Rangers -132

There are two ways to handicap Texas starting pitcher Yu Darvish. The first is how he has fared against teams he's already faced. The second way, and the handicap that applies in this one, is how well he pitches the first time he faces an opponent. Darvish has made a first start against an opponent in 11 of his 20 starts this season. The righthander owns a strong 2.91 ERA & 1.31 WHIP in those outings...much better than the alternative. That's the situation he's in tonight at Fenway. Darvish has also been a slump-buster for the Rangers helping the team to an 8-0 mark following a game where the Rangers allowed at least 5 runs. It should also be noted that Texas is on a 5-1 run against the Sox and they're 21-7 in their last 28 against sub-.500 teams. Boston counters with Aaron Cook who has allowed 6 home runs in his last three starts, spanning 15 innings. He's been especially bad in his last two outings, giving up 12 earned runs in just 8 2/3 innings. His last three opponents scored 7, 10, and 7 runs against the Red Sox. I'm backing the Rangers on Monday.

SPORTS WAGERS

PITTSBURGH +110 over Arizona

The Pirates are coming off a series loss in Cincinnati but they were in all three games and took the finale yesterday 6-2. With a little luck, they could have easily won on both Friday and Saturday. The Pirates are still playing well and will return home just 4½-games back of the Reds and tied for first in the Wild Card race. The Pirates also own the major’s best home record at 33-16 and that includes a 10-4 record against left-handed starters. They’ll face another one here in Wade Miley.

Miley’s surface stats are better than they should be. He’s given up plenty of hits over his past six starts (BAA of .295) and he’s also allowed six jacks over that same six-start span, including three in one game. He’s definitely a serviceable pitcher but he does not possess the repertoire or stuff of a starter with a 2.98 ERA. Chances are his ERA will regress in the final six weeks of the season.

The Diamondbacks are also coming off a series loss, as they dropped two of three in Philadelphia. What’s more notable is that Arizona has just five wins in 15 games on the road against lefties and they, too, will face one here in Erik Bedard.

Bedard is 2-4 at home but has an ERA of 2.42. He deserves a lot better than his 5-12 record suggests. In three of his last eight starts he’s allowed just one run. Over his past two starts, Bedard has struck out 18 batters in 11.1 frames. When healthy, he still owns outstanding skills. Pitching at home against a team that struggles both on the road and against lefties, Bedard and the Pirates are wrongly being billed as the dog here.

Tony Stoffo

Mariners vs. Orioles
Play: Under 8.5

With both teams not hitting right now and Vargas matching up with Tillman here makes for a solid release on the under in this spot tonight. First off Jason Vargas has been sharp going 3-0 in his last 3 starts allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 hits in 21 innings pitched resulting in a 1.29 ERA and 0.952 WHIP. Plus add in that Chris Tillman has dominated the Mariners in his 2 starts with a 0.63 ERA and 0.698 WHIP would indicate, and you can see how a lower scoring game is on tap for this evening.

Jesse Schule

Atlanta vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Atlanta

The Braves are in Philadelphia today, to kick off a three game series against the "new look" Phillies, without Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino. Atlanta is on a tear as of late, winning 10 of their last 12 games, and closing the gap to just three games back of the Nationals in the NL East.

Atlanta will send Ben Sheets to the mound today, coming off a loss his last time out. Sheets (3-1, 1.46 ERA) allowed four runs on 11 hits, going just over six innings in a 4-2 loss to Miami in his last start. Prior to that he had been brilliant in three consecutive victories, allowing only a single run in those three games. One of those three wins came against these Phillies, as he limited them to a single run on six hits over six innings in a 6-1 win. Sheets looks like the real deal since coming back from injury, and even in his lone loss of the 2012 campaign, he still recorded eight strikeouts.

Philadelphia will counter with Vance Worley, who is coming off a quality start his last time out. Worley (6-6, 3.63 ERA) went seven innings, allowing a pair of runs on six hits, earning a 3-2 victory over Washington in his last start. He wasn't as sharp, allowing three runs on 10 hits, in only five innings in his previous start, not figuring in the decision in a 7-6 win over the Brewers.

Dan Uggla has only faced Worely a few times, however he has gone 3 for 7, with a pair of homers against him in just seven at bats. Michael Bourn, Freddie Freeman and Chipper Jones have also all hit better than .400 against Worley this year.

While the Phillies season is as good as over, the Braves are just getting started. With a mismatch on the mound here tonight, the Braves are in a good spot to earn a victory.

Bryan Power

Washington vs. Houston
Pick: Washington

Might as well keep playing against the Astros, something I've always made it a point to do whether it be with premium or free selections all season. Houston did manage one win in its series with Atlanta, winning Saturday, but predictably came back with a 6-1 loss yesterday. That should have come as no surprise considering they have not won back to back games since late June and have now dropped a stunning 30 losses in their last 34 games since that time. Facing a Nationals team that is at the other end of the spectrum in the National League isn't likely to remedy the situation at all in Houston.

Big time pitching mismatch for tonight's series opener. Washington's Edwin Jackson deserves better than a 6-7 record (7-13 TSR) in his 20 starts this season given a solid 3.57 ERA. He's been especially sharp of late with a 1.83 ERA his last three starts, although the team did lose twice. This seems strange considering the Nationals have the best road record in MLB and have won 12 of their last 17 overall.

Meanwhile, Houston's Dallas Keuchel has been awful over his last three starts with a 12.15 ERA. Despite going just a little over 13 innings during that span, he's allowed 19 runs, 18 of them earned. This is a total mismatch between one of the NL's best against the worst team in baseball. Go with the road team.

Matt Fargo

Atlanta vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia

The Phillies capped off their weekend series against the Diamondbacks with two straight wins including yesterday's come from behind victory. They have been playing very well at home after a horrid start as they have won six of their last seven games at Citizens Bank Park and they will be looking for some redemption this week. After winning two of the first three meetings, Philadelphia has lost six straight to the Braves. The Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a win.

Atlanta hits the road following a very successful homestand as it went 8-2 and won all three of its series. The pitching was outstanding as the Braves allowed an average of only 1.7 rpg over those 10 games and going further back, they have allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of their last 13 games. Their road ERA is one of the best in baseball but the Phillies bats have been strong as they are hitting .285 in their last 10 games against right-handed pitching.

Ben Sheets has been a great addition to the starting rotation for Atlanta. After not pitching in two years, he has made four starts and all four of those have been quality outings. This included shutting the Phillies down by allowing just one run on six hits in six innings but that was at home where three of his starts have taken place. While his ERA is tremendous, he has a 1.45 WHIP in his last three starts and allowing a lot of baserunners is eventually going to catch up to him.

The Phillies counter with Vance Worley who is having a very strong season, posting a 3.63 ERA in 18 starts with 12 of those being quality outings. He is coming off a great performance at Washington where he allowed no earned runs on six hits in seven innings of work. He has fared better on the road but he has pitched very well against the Braves in his career, posting a 2.37 ERA in three starts and two relief appearances. The Phillies are 11-3 in Worley's last 14 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.

Dave Price

Cincinnati Reds +126

The Reds, who have won 9 in a row on the road, are showing value in the underdog role against a Milwaukee club they have defeated 6 times in the past 7 meetings. The Brewers are just 4-12 in their last 16 overall, and they figure to have a difficult time solving Arroyo tonight. The Reds are 5-1 in Arroyo's last 6 starts vs. the Brewers while the Brewers are 2-8 in Gallardo's last 10 starts vs. the Reds. Bet the Reds.

Jack Jones

Baltimore Orioles -135

The Baltimore Orioles are right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race at 57-51 on the seasons. They have won five of their last seven overall, including back-to-back shutout victories. I'll back them tonight against the lowly Seattle Mariners (51-50), who are in a letdown spot Monday after playing a series at the New York Yankees over the weekend.

Chris Tillman is having an excellent season thus for for Baltimore. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in five starts this year. Tillman has been untouchable in two career starts against Seattle, going 2-0 with a 0.63 ERA and 0.698 WHIP while allowing one earned runs and 10 base runners over 14 1/3 innings.

The Mariners are 8-28 in their last 36 road games vs. AL East opponents. Seattle is 33-70 in its last 103 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 8-2 in Tillman's last 10 home starts. Baltimore is 8-2 in its last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Orioles Monday.

Jimmy Boyd

Arizona Diamondbacks -113

The D-backs have the edge with Wade Miley on the hill. Miley is 12-6 with a 2.98 ERA while Pittsburgh's Erik Bedard is 5-12 with a 4.83 ERA. The Diamondbacks are 17-7 in Mileys last 24 starts, 10-4 in his last 14 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Pirates are 1-7 in Bedard's last 8 starts and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. In addition, the Diamondbacks are 11-5 in their last 16 overall, 8-3 in their last 11 games as a favorite, 8-2 in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record and 13-5 in their last 18 games versus a left-handed starter. Take the Snakes.