Jeff Alexander
San Diego Padres -130
The Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 overall and just 16-39 on the road this season. I expect their road struggles to continue tonight given how poorly Travis Wood has pitched recently. The southpaw is 0-4 in his last 4 starts with a 10.45 ERA. Also, the Padres have won 7 of their last 9 at home. We'll take San Diego.
MTi Sports
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are 12-0 as a favorite with Verlander when the bullpen allowed three-plus runs yesterday. In his three starts in this spot this season, he has produced three quality-start, multiple-runs wins in which the Tigers never trailed.
Sean Murphy
Texas vs. Boston
Pick: Texas
Sean is well on his way to another OUTSTANDING month, but he's eager to get back at the books after a RARE off day on Sunday. Murph is riding STELLAR hot streaks across the board; he's 14-4 in CFL action this season, 44-22 in soccer dating all the way back to the start of 2010, and 18-11-1 over his last 30 MLB plays. Grab a weekly or monthly picks pass today and don't miss a single winner from this proven long-term winner!
The Rangers lost yesterday, bringing an end to their four-game winning streak, while the Red Sox finally found a way to get past the Twins to snap their four-game winning streak.
That doesn't change the fact that these two teams are heading in opposite directions right now.
The Rangers continue to get it done at the dish, having scored 41 runs over their last five games. Note that the Red Sox are giving up over five runs per game here at Fenway Park this season, so there's reason to believe Texas can keep it rolling on Monday.
Boston's offense has been alright, but its pitching staff continues to struggle. The Red Sox have posted a staff ERA north of five over their last five games, and have been hovering around that number for much of the season. Their home field advantage has been non-existent here in 2012, as they've posted a 28-32 record.
By contrast, the Rangers are six games over .500 on the road.
Yu Darvish will get the start for the Rangers on Monday. He's been battered for 12 earned runs over his last two starts, covering only 11 1/3 innings of work. Keep in mind, both of those starts came at home. Interestingly enough, Darvish has been slightly better on the road this season, posting a 4.21 ERA. There he's given up just 53 hits while striking out 68 in 62 innings pitched. He's certainly shown flashes of brilliance lately, recording 24 strikeouts over his last three outings.
The Red Sox will counter with much-maligned sinker-ball pitcher Aaron Cook. The fact that he continues to hold down a job in the starting rotation says a lot about the Sox state of affairs on the mound. He's been ripped for 16 hits and 12 earned runs over his last two starts, spanning only 8 2/3 innings of work. Note that Cook has struck out a grand total of two, yes two hitters over his last five starts. He's given up exactly two home runs in each of his last three trips to the hill. If you can't get strikeouts, and have a tendency to give up the long ball, the Rangers are the last team you want to be facing. This is simply a nightmarish spot for Cook.
As far as current form goes, neither team has a real edge in the bullpen. However, when looking at the entire season, the Rangers do have a significant advantage, as their 'pen has posted a solid 2.74 ERA on the road. Meanwhile, Red Sox relievers have combined to record an ERA of nearly four here at Fenway Park.
The Rangers are 4-1 in this series so far this season, scoring at least five runs in all four victories. I'm confident we'll see them get to Cook early and often tonight, and make amends for yesterday's blown opportunity at a series sweep in Kansas City.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
LA Angels -148 over OAKLAND: The Angels has had a rough road trip as they come into this game having won just one of their last 5 games, but their last 2 opponents had something that the A's don't and that's an offense that can keep up with them. The Angels come in having averaged 7.7 rpg on their current trip and they score 5.1 rpg on the road, while the A's have put up just 3.5 rpg at home. The Angels did struggle in their lone meeting with Jarod Parker, but that was back in may when they were struggling offensively and it was also the first time they had seen him. Jarod was also pitching better at the time and the long season may be taking it's toll on him as he is just 2-2 with a 6.06 ERA in his last 5 starts. Now making it even harder for the A's offense to keep pace in this game is the fact that they are facing Jared Weaver. Jared is 14-1 with a 2.29 ERA overall, while on the road he is 6-1 with a 3.55 ERA. Jared has been even more special at night, going 12-1 with a 2.03 ERA and an 0.93 WHIP. The Angels have won his last 11 starts overall and he has allowed 2 ER's or less in 10 of those starts. Jered has really been strong against the A's of late as he is 3-1 with a 1.47 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, including a 2-0 mark with a 1.66 ERA in his last 3 trips here. The Halos are coming off a 7 game stretch vs Texas and Chicago, but I don't expect a letdown here. They lost some ground to the A's during their last 7 games, so I expect them to be fully focused in this series as they look to take back second place in the AL West from the upstart A's.
St LOUIS -110 over San Francisco: Google News Play The Giants had a great series in Colorado, in which they swept the Rockies and scored 35 runs in the process. I know the Giants offense is better away from home but not that good, plus they were taking on a Rockies team that seems to have given up the last few weeks. They will face a different kind of team in this 4 games and vs a much better staff. The Cardinals are once again looking to make a surge for a play of spot and they have been tough to beat at home of late as they have won their last 6 in a row here and 11 of their last 12. The Cards average 5.17 rpg at home, but during their last 9 games here they have put up 6.4 rpg, while their pitching has been superb, allowing just 1.9 rpg over that stretch. Matt Cain has been superb at home this year, but he has been hit around on the road of late with a 4.10 ERA in his last 4 road starts and he is just 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA in 7 career starts vs the Cards. Jake Westbrook has been very good of late with a 4-2 mark and a 3.72 ERA in his last 7 starts. Jake has won his last 3 in a row overall and is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA in his last 5 starts at home. St Louis has lost all 3 of his starts vs the Giants, but St Louis is rolling at home right now, both offensively and with pitching and will not let the Giants steal game one of this 4 game set.
POWER ANGLE PLAY (11-2 RUN)
Minnesota +112 over CLEVELAND: Boy it would have been nice had the Tribe won at least one of their games on their 9 game road trip, but this is still their first game back from that trip and they aren't playing well at the plate or on the mound right now. During the trip Cleveland scored just 3.1 rpg, while they gave up a whopping 8.2 rpg. This team doesn't have much confidence in any faze of their game right now and they will be taking on a team this is playing with high confidence right now. The Twins are off a 4 game series with the Red Sox and they won 3 of the games played. Overall the Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 games and that includes a a 3 game home sweep of these Indians, in which they outscored them 28-6. Minnesota sends Scott Diamond to the mound tonight and he has been solid for them with a 9-5 mark and a 2-93 ERA. He is just 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA on the road this year, but Cleveland struggles vs lefties at home, hitting just .211 and scoring just 3.2 rpg off of them here. The Twins have been very hot offensively of late as they have averaged 6.1 rpg in their last 10 games and they should be able to get to Zach McAllister, who is 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Just don't see a focused Cleveland team here, coming off the long road trip and that will allow a very confident Minnesota team to take game 1 of this series. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2009 Cleveland is just 4-18 when they are off a game in which they scored at least 6 runs, hit at least 2 HR's and still lost the game.
Texas -135 over BOSTON: The Boston Red Sox have struggled at home all year and that includes going 0-2 and getting outscored 24-6 in the two games here vs Texas. Boston is reeling right now and it was never more evident than losing 3 of 4 at home to the Twins. Aaron Cook comes in struggling as well as he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts, while at home he is just 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA. Boston's pitching overall has struggled of late as they have a 4.93 ERA in their last 10 games, while a bullpen that had turned things a round this year is really struggling with a 5.70 ERA in their last 10 games. Not having Ortiz has hurt this offense as they just haven't been able to out score their opponents and you will need to put plenty of runs on the board when your facing this Texas team. The Rangers average 5.2 rpg on the year and they have put up 6 rpg in their last 10 games and that includes putting up 9 rpg in a 4 game set vs a very good Angels pitching staff. Yu Darvish has struggled of late with a 6.87 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he has the offense to make up for that and the Rangers have gone 2-1 in those starts. He will also be taking on a team that scores a run and a half less at home vs righties than lefties. This is a big series for the Rangers, cause the Angles and A's are playing each other and that means that Texas has a shot at putting some more distance between one or both of the teams. The Rangers are the better team here and they can really hit in this park, plus they have the advantage on the mound and between the ears.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (23-5 RUN) (32-13 +14.83 UNITS)
Since 2006 Baltimore is 21-2 as a home favorite when they are off a game in which their opponent's starter lasted more than for innings and the O's got more runs of the pen then their starter. Play on Baltimore -140 over Seattle
Since 2004 Pittsburgh is 3-18 in the first game of a home series when they are off a win in which they drew at most 1 walk and they were NOT a +250 or higher dog in that win. Play Arizona -115 over Pittsburgh
Rocketman
Texas / Boston
Play: Texas -132
The Texas Rangers travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox in Game one of this three game series. Texas is 6-1 the past 3 years on the road when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. Texas is scoring 7.3 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a team batting average of .306. Texas is allowing only 3.9 runs per game on the road this year holding opponents to a .234 overall batting average. Aaron Cook takes the mound for the Red Sox where he is 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA overall this year, 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA at home this season and 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Texas is 43-11 last 54 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Texas is 43-15 last 58 games after a loss. Texas is 8-0 last 8 games when Darvish starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Boston is 6-13 last 19 games as a home underdog and 5-11 last 16 games overall as an underdog. Boston is 1-4 last 5 games overall and 1-4 last 5 games overall when Cook starts. Texas has won 5 of the past 6 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +112 over CLEVELAND
The Indians are in free fall mode after losing their ninth straight yesterday and losing 14 of their past 16 games. The pitching staff, both the pen and starters, have been nothing short of brutal over that span and you would have to go back to July 26th to find the last time a Cleveland starter had a quality outing.
Zach McAllister has thrown just 68 innings for the Tribe this season. He has been the team's most consistent starter but the opposition now has a read on him and as a result, his numbers are beginning to trend the wrong way. He was tagged by the Royals for five runs in six innings in his last start. Last season McAllister started four games for Cleveland and posted a 6.11 ERA. He lives up in the strike zone, which has resulted in a fly-ball bias profile. McAllister will take the mound today feeling the added pressure to perform well to snap this funk and that's never a good state of mind to be in.
The Twins just took three of four at Fenway against the previously red-hot Red Sox. Scott Diamond has pitched six innings or more in seven straight starts. Over his last two starts, covering 16 innings, he didn’t walk a batter. Diamond is not going to overpower anyone but what he will do, is throw strikes, keep the hitters off balance and provide the Twinkies a chance to win. He’s a lefty and the Indians have the worst record (10-33) in the AL and second worst in the majors overall against southpaws. Unlikely that things take a turn here.