Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 9,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
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The A's and M's meet in the first of a three-game set when Vin Mazarro matches serves with Doug Fister in Seattle Monday evening. Mazarro enters tonight game 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in his last three road team starts while Fister has been struggling of late, going 1-6 with a 5.84 ERA in his last seven team starts. With that, look for the Mariners to drop to 2-8 at home of late behind Fister tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.

Tom Freese
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Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
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Oakland starter Vin Mazzaro has allowed 3 or less runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. The A's are 20-8 their last 28 games vs. a team with a win percentage of less than 40%. Mazzaro is 5-0 his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The A's are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. the Mariners. Seattle starter Doug Fister is 6-12 in his team starts this year. Fister has allowed 23 runs in his last 26.1 innings of work. The Mariners are 9-26 their last 35 games and they are 7-22 vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is 1-6 in the last 7 starts made Fister.

Matt Fargo
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White Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9
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The first three games of this series have been low scoring and the ‘Under’ has cashed all three tickets. That makes it six straight ‘Unders’ dating back to last season and that brings out our contrarian scenario for tonight. The number has not changed dramatically despite the pitching matchup featuring two recent ‘Over’ pitchers and that will help out a lot with the opposing offenses not to mention the value in the posted total. The White Sox have gone 0-5-1 to the ‘Under’ over their last six games as the pitching has been outstanding while the offense has been up and down. Baltimore meanwhile is 1-6-1 to the ‘Under’ over its last eight games as the pitching has been average and the bats have not been producing consistently. These are streaks we like to go against. The White sox send Edwin Jackson to the hill for his second start since coming over from Arizona. His first outing was a good one as he allowed just one run in seven innings in a 4-1 victory over the Tigers. It had the potential for a rougher outing as he did allow nine hits so he was fortunate to get out of numerous jams. He had a 5.16 ERA in 21 starts with the Diamondbacks so he was far from effective over there. Prior to the start against Detroit, Jackson had gone ‘Over’ in five straight and eight of his last nine starts. Baltimore goes with Brian Matusz who has remained up and down all season long. He is coming off a quality outing in his last start against the Angels but previous to that he had allowed 18 earned runs in his last four starts covering only 16 innings. The potential has been there all season but the inconsistency means he will not be following up that solid game with another. Matusz is now 4-0-1 to the ‘Over’ in his last five starts. 3* Over Chicago White Sox/Baltimore Orioles

Frank Jordan
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Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Chicago Cubs
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Carlos Zambrano is making his first start for the Cubs in some time after a blow up in the dugout and some time away from the team to get counseling Zambrano has just three wins on the season, but two of those have come on the road as he starts in San Francisco. The Giants are sending Bumgarner to the hill who is 4-4 on the year with a 3.20 era, but he has lost each of his last two starts since winning four in a row and is 0-2 at home this year. Look for Zambrano to be focused and put on a show as the Cubs surprise the Giants in San Francisco. Play Chicago Cubs

Steve Merril
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Rays vs. Tigers
Play: Under 8.5
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Two struggling offenses take the field in Detroit on Monday night as the Tigers host Tampa Bay. The Rays are coming off a game in which they managed to get just one hit off of Brandon Morrow in Toronto on Sunday. Tampa hopes that David Price can halt the slide. The lefty is 14-5 with a 2.82 ERA this season. He's 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last three starts and he has already led the Rays to victory against the Tigers. In that game, he gave up two runs and seven hits in 6.1 innings of work. Last year, he held the Tigers to one run and five hits in a game in Detroit. Johnny Damon (1-9), Jhonny Peralta (0-7), Miguel Cabrera (0-7), Ryan Raburn (1-7), Gerald Laird (1-6), and Austin Jackson (1-4) all struggle against Price. Before scoring 18 runs in their last two games, Detroit had only scored eight runs in their previous four games. Armando Galarraga makes the start for Detroit. He's 3-4 with a 4.32 ERA this season. In his last three starts, Galarraga is 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA and two of those games went Under the total. Jason Bartlett (1-9), Kelly Shoppach (0-9), BJ Upton (1-7), and Carl Crawford (0-3) all struggle with the Tigers starter. Tampa has scored just 39 runs in their last 10 games. Both teams feature bullpens that have ERA’s below 3.20 this season which will help keep the run totals low if either of the starters falter a bit. We expect a low-scoring game so we’ll recommend a play on the Under tonight between the Rays and Tigers.

BIG AL
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White Sox @ Orioles
PICK: Under 9
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So far, so good for righthander Edwin Jackson's return to the American League. The 26-year-old whose last stay with the Arizona Diamondbacks lasted only about four months, is back to the league he knows best and his first start in a Chicago uniform was a good one as Jackson went into his former home (Comerica Park) and silenced the Tigers over seven quality innings and didn't walk a batter until the last man he faced. Tonight he heads into Baltimore to face a team he's had quite a bit of success against, going 4-1 in seven appearances (five starts) against the O's in his career. Lefthander Brian Matusz will get his 23rd start of the season tonight and the Orioles are hoping that his last start - his first of the month - is a sign of things to come for their former #1 pitching prospect as most of the 2010 season has been a huge disappointment for Matusz. In that last outing, Matusz got just his fourth win of the season as he threw six quality innings against the Angels, striking out three without a walk. This is the fourth and final game of this series in which runs have been in short supply with a total of just 16 runs being scored in the first three and all three going under the total, making it six straight unders for this match-up going back to 2009. Take the 'under.'

Jim Feist
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Cubs vs. Giants
Play: Under 8
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San Francisco is a pitcher-friendly park and two weak offensive teams meet here. The Cubs are 12th in the NL in runs scored, the Giants 9th. Carlos Zambrano is 5-1 with a 2.76 ERA against the Giants, while their offense has never seen San Franciso prospect Madison Bumgarner. The kid has been impressive, with a 3.20 ERA with few walks. Don't look for many runs, play the Cubs/Giants Under the total.

SPORTS WAGERS
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Atlanta –1½ +1.42 over HOUSTON
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The Braves are coming off a very impressive series over the Giants in which they won three of the four games and beat Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. The Astros were swept in Milwaukee after blowing a three-run, ninth inning lead in the opener and ended up surrendering 22 runs in the three-game set. The Astros have now dropped four in a row and come into this one with a battered bullpen after the team allowed 30 runs against in its four-game losing streak. Mike Minor was Atlanta's first round pick (and the 7th player selected overall) in last year's amateur draft after an outstanding collegiate career at Vanderbilt. At just 22, he is a polished and savvy pitcher with a solid/average fastball that sits in the low 90's along with a plus change-up and a good breaking pitch that keeps hitters off balance. His best tool is that he can spot all of his offerings where he wants to. Minor is 6’ 3”, 210, and began the year at AA Mississippi where he went 2-6 for a poor team, but had great numbers. Since being promoted to AAA Gwinnett he has been overpowering in all respects, 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA and a BAA of .171. In 120 innings split between AA and AAA, Minor struck out 146 and walked 46. Bud Norris has some very good stuff but this guy is a big risk because he has just two pitches (fastball, slider) and when he’s not throwing strikes with his slider he’s a sitting duck out there. The Braves ripped Norris apart once already this year (4.2 IP, 8H 7R 4BB 3K’s) and you can be damn sure that they’ll be a little extra juiced up here in support of its top-pitching prospect. Play: Atlanta –1½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -131
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Cincinnati's rookie starting pitcher Mike Leake has been great for the Reds this season posting a 7-3 record this season with an ERA of 3.86, but I think he is hitting the rookie wall. Over his last three starts Leake is 1-2 with an ERA of 6.06 and he will have very little margin for error with Chris Carpenter as the opposing pitcher. The Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter has dominated the Reds in his career. In sixteen career starts Carpenter is 10-3 with an ERA of 1.96 against Cincinnati. This season Carpenter has even been better against the Reds posting a 3-0 record in three starts with an ERA of just 1.29. Carpenter is in great form right now as he is 1-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of just 2.01. I look for Carpenter to dominate the Reds line up once again. Play on St. Louis.

Chris Jordan

Chris Carpenter is laying a relatively cheap price against Mike Leake, and I'll take the bait on this one and play the Cardinals in this National League Central showdown.

I'm going to list both pitchers in this one, as a change for the Reds could possibly change the line, and I want the value with this play.

Carpenter has won eight straight starts against the Reds with a 1.09 ERA, beating them three times this season.

And the All-Star right-hander comes into this matchup scorching, going 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last five starts - all of which were St. Louis wins.

I know the Reds have been winning as well, but Leake has lost his last two starts with a 7.94 ERA.

Take the Cardinals in this one, as they roll to the easy win.

1♦ ST. LOUIS

Bobby Maxwell

Tonight's FREE winner comes on the Brewers as they are going to take care of business at home against the D'Backs.

If Milwaukee could only play the Diamondbacks every day, the Brewers would be blowing away the rest of the field. Milwaukee has won seven straight against Arizona and took three straight in Phoenix in early May.

The Brewers just battered the Astros this weekend and when they get in these scoring modes, they can really light up the scoreboard. Lefty Christopher Narveson (9-7, 5.68 ERA) is on the mound for the Brewers.

Narveson had a fine outing against the D’Backs on May 9 when he held them to one run on three hits in 5.2 innings of a 6-1 victory. The Brewers have won three of his last four starts and he was outstanding on Tuesday when he held the Cubs to one run in 5.2 innings of a 4-3 victory.

On the hill for Arizona is Ian Kennedy (6-9, 4.40 ERA) who is just 1-2 in his last three outings with a 7.02 ERA. Kennedy was torched in his last start on Wednesday, allowing four runs on eight hits in four innings of a 7-2 home loss to the Nationals. His last roadie, he gave up five runs in six innings but his offense bailed him out with a 9-6 win.

Milwaukee has won 10 of its last 12 at home and five of six series openers. Narveson has won four straight starts after five days off and six of his last eight starts against teams with losing records. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 10-26 against lefties, 23-58 on the road and 1-6 when Kennedy starts on the road.

In this matchup, Milwaukee has won 19 of the last 26 and will take this series opener tonight. Play the Brewers!

2♦ MILWAUKEE

Stephen Nover

My free pick hot streak is up to 51-33-1 following yesterday's victory with the Athletics.

On an abbreviated card tonight, I'm going with the home underdog Orioles against the White Sox, who might be the better team, but right now, the Orioles are playing their finest ball.

The Orioles are 5-1 in their last six games. It's not a coincidence that this 5-1 streak began when Buck Showalter took over as manager. The Orioles' pitching and defense has shown marked improvement under Showalter and the team is playing with more discipline and attention.

Right now the Orioles are a tough club to beat. Baltimore is going with Brian Matusz, who beat the Angels in his last start, holding them to one run in six innings this past Wednesday.

Matusz may not have to face White Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham, who is questionable with a strained groin.

I'm not a fan of White Sox starter Edwin Jackson. He beat Detroit in his White Sox debut this past Wednesday at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Prior to that, though, Jackson had a 7.25 ERA in his previous four starts.

Jackson couldn't hack it in the National League. He's not going to be any better in the tougher-hitting American League.

The Orioles are worth riding now taking an underdog price at home against an overvalued starter.

3♦ BALTIMORE

Karl Garrett

G-Man on a 9-5-1 comp play run the last 15 days.

For Monday night, stick with the surging A's to defeat their division rivals in a battle at Safeco Field.

Oakland just took 2 of 3 off of Texas, and have won 5 of their last 8 as they hit the road and look to keep momentum in their corner.

At this price, the G-Man has to ride the A's and Vin Mazzaro who is a resepctable 5-3 with a 3.79 ERA for the season. Oakland has gone 6-3 in the season series this year against Seattle, and they do catch the Mariners having lost 10 of their last 13 games overall.

M's starter Doug Fister has split a pair of starts this year versus the A's, and is just 3-8 for the season with an ERA of 3.98.

Oakland is feeling pretty good about themselves after taking 2 of 3 off of first place Texas this past weekend, and now will keep their momentum rolling with a win to open this series against the Mariners.

2♦ OAKLAND

BRETT ATKINS

I've got an easy free winner for you tonight as I'm going with the Braves to get the job done in a big way in Houston.

The Braves have been dominant at home all season, it’s been their sketchy road play that has allowed Philadelphia to hang around in the race for the N.L. East crown.

Atlanta is an ugly 25-32 on the highway this year and if they can turn that into a .500 record, they’ll walk away with a division crown. That winning will start tonight when they visit Houston for the start of a three-game set.

Rookie Mike Minor is on the hill for Atlanta, making his first big-league start. He is 4-1 in the minors this year with a 1.89 ERA. Atlanta has won four of five overall and just took two of three from a very tough San Francisco club.

Bud Norris goes for the Astros and he’s just 1-4 at home with a 6.10 ERA. He’s allowed the opposition four or more runs in four of his last five starts and he got knocked around by the Braves on May 2 when he gave up seven runs in 4.2 innings of a 7-1 loss.

Atlanta is 16-5 against N.L. Central teams and 9-3 in series openers. Look for them to add to those streaks tonight. Play the Braves.

3♦ ATLANTA