JOEL TYSON
For Monday, let's go with the Braves to hand the Astros their 5th straight loss.
Houston has allowed a rather large 30 runs over their last 4 games, and not surprisingly they have lost all 4.
Atlanta comes to town with the Phillies hot on their trail, so they know they cannot afford a slip up against a 47-63 team tonight.
Mike Minor makes his major league debut, while Bud Norris and his 4-7 record with his 5.65 ERA will oppose.
The Braves have won the previous 3 series meetings this season, including rocking Norris for 7 runs in 5 innings of work.
Atlanta has won their last pair, and 5 of their last 7, and they win again tonight.
4♦ ATLANTA
ROCKETMAN
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Boston @ NY Yankees
Play: Boston
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Boston is 7 games behind the NY Yankees in the AL East and 4 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay for the wild card spot. If this team wants to make the postseason, they need to go on a nice run and they need it to start now against the team they are chasing. Jon Lester is 11-7 with a 3.07 ERA overall this year and 5-3 with a 3.00 ERA on the road this season. Lester is 4-1 overall vs NY Yankees since 1997 while Hughes is 1-2 with a whopping 8.00 ERA overall vs Boston since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Boston today!
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -133
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Look for the White Sox to bounce back strong following Sunday's 1-run loss to the worst team in baseball. Jackson gets the ball for Chicago. He was brilliant in his first start with the club, giving up only 1 run in 7 innings of work in a 4-1 win over Detroit. He has also won his last 4 starts against the Orioles. Chicago's sticks have been quiet in this series, but I expect the White Sox to bust them out against Matusz, who is just 1-7 with an ERA of 5.18 and a WHIP of 1.383 at home this season. It is certainly worth noting that the White Sox are 22-5 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. It is also worth noting that the White Sox are 26-9 in their last 35 games following a loss. Lastly, the Sox are 10-0 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 8.4 to 3.0. Take Chicago.
Rob Vinciletti
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Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -1½
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LA fits a solid 86% system that wins by nearly 3 runs per game. Since the Line is high we will use them on the Run line at -1.5. KC has O Sullivan on the mound and he has been terrible on the road and has a 5.51 era. LA counters with hard throwing E.Santana who pitched well here against KC in Early July. With KC hitting an anemic .219 and averaging just 2.6 runs per game the past week we will back the Angels on the run line.
This is dedicated to Cash and Blade who are the leaders of this forum and the BEST FREE SPORTS PICKS FORUM admins in this sector of the universe. UD77 8)
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
491 - 362 run 58 % 😮 Free play Mon Tampa Bay
Recent wins (he lost on Sunday but w0n three in a row before that)
oops Sun Red Sox +135 SAT TY KC Royals + 110 TY FRI SL Cards TY Thurs Phillies TY Wed Cincy Reds 😮
Info Plays
3* on Tampa Bay Rays -157
Reasons the Rays win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. This is a 50-11 ML System hitting 82% since 1997. This system is 8-2 this season.
2.) David Price. The lefty is 14-5 with a 2.82 ERA this season, and 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA in two lifetime starts vs. Detroit. Armando Galarraga has posted a 6.35 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay. Bet the Rays on the road.
Freddy Wills
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
Take the Yankees here the Red Sox are just 2-10 in their last 12 at Yankee Stadium and Lester only has a 4.11 ERA during his day starts. In fact the Red Sox as a team have struggled during the day only 12-18. As they score 1.42 less runs per 9 innings and their ERA is 0.67 runs higher. Yankees on the other hand are 27-14 during the day and score 1.31 runs more per 9 and have an ERA that's 3.94 compared to 3.83. Lester has not faired well at new Yankee stadium in three starts here he's gone 14.1 IP gave up 18 hits 6 BB's and 10 ER. He's struggling as of late and that's not a good sign as he faces a Yankee team who kills lefty pitching at home 48-20 in their last 68 vs. a LH starter and are scoring 6.72 runs per 9 at home vs. LHP this year. Yankees are also 17-4 in Hughes last 21 home starts.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -154
Zambrano has struggled all season, especially on the road where he is carrying an 8.39 ERA, and I have no reason to think his return to the starting rotation will bring about a different result. The Giants are a perfect 8-0 in the second half of this season when facing National League opponents who give up 4.8 or more runs per game. The Giants aren't just beating these teams, they're crushing them by an average score of 7.4 to 2.1. Take the Giants.
Jack Jones
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Oakland Athletics
Getting the A's at nearly even money tonight is a solid value play as they take on the Seattle Mariners, one of the worst teams in baseball. Oakland still has a fighting chance to win the AL West, especially after taking 2 out of 3 from the division-leading Rangers last series. This is one team I know will fight and scratch to the finish line. Vin Mazzaro has been more than just serviceable this season, going 6-3 with a 3.86 ERA for Oakland.
The Mariners send Doug Fister to the mound, who is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The right-hander is 0-7 with a 5.65 ERA in his last 11 starts overall. Fister gave up a season-high seven runs over 4.2 innings Wednesday in an 11-6 home loss to Texas. Seattle is 9-26 against the money line against division opponents this season. The A's are 5-0 in Mazzaro's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 9-26 in their last 35 games overall. Seattle is 1-8 in their last 9 games following a win. Oakland is 20-8 20-8 in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Roll with the A's Monday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -154
Zambrano has had success against the Giants in his career, but he has not been the same "Big Z" this season. The Cubs have lost 5 of Zambrano's last 7 starts, and each of his last 6 series opening starts. Plus, the Cubs have lost 10 of their last 11 overall. After a tough road trip, I expect the Giants to be ready to go at home tonight. In fact, San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 7.4 to 2.1. Take the Giants.
John Ryan
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Oakland Athletics
3* graded play on Oakland as they take on Seattle set to start at 10:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a significant probability that Oakland will win this game. Oakland has the best ERA in the Majors since the all-star break posting a remarkable 2.88 ERA. The next best is Texas posting a 3.07 ERA. Seattle ranks 22nd at 4.52 ERA. This is most attributed to dominant starting pitching where the A’s rank fourth overall for the season with a 3.57 ERA for their starting pitchers. Vin Mazzaro has posted a 6-3 mark in 12 starts posting a 3.79 ERA on the season. After struggling against arguably the best team in the AL, Texas, he pitched a gem against KC gong six strong innings allowing just one earned run. Seattle starter Fister has a team record of just 5-17 (-12.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 45-23 making 28.6 units since 1997. Play against home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one home run. Take Oakland.
Tony Stoffo
Kansas City Royals vs. LAA Angels
Play: Kansas City Royals
With Ervin Santana getting the start here for the Angels I just can't see them being a 2-1 favorite in this spot against the Royals. Santana in his last three starts has given up 18 runs, and 27 hits, in just 17+ innings pitched resulting in a 7.65 ERA and 1.868 WHIP. Plus things are getting worse with each start as Santana couldn't make it out of the 4th innings in his last start against the lowly Orioles giving up 9 runs, and 12 hits. This is sure not a pitcher that I would lay -200 with. Plus add in the fact that this will be Sean O'Sullivan's first start against this former team, and I can see him coming with a solid emotional effort tonight. Add this all up and you can see how the Royals become the very live dog in this spot. --Angels are 1-7 in Santana's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
LARRY NESS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
The Reds have won four straight and NINE of their last 11 while outscoring opponents in that stretch by an impressive 70-33. They open a three-game series tonight vs the Cards, who they lead by two games in the NL Central. These teams have alternated taking over first place in the division 17 times since May 15, so while a sweep by either team in this series would be significant, the more likely scenario is that these two teams will be battling for the division title well into late September. The Cards have won seven of 12 season meetings with the Reds in 2010 and will send Chris Carpenter to the mound tonight, Carpenter is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA since the break in five starts (Cards are 5-0) and is now 12-3 with a 2.91 ERA on the season in 24 starts (Cards are 18-6). More importantly to this matchup, Carpenter has won EIGHT consecutive starts against the Reds with a 1.09 ERA, including THREE wins in 2010. The Reds turn to rookie Mike Leake who is 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 20 starts (team is just 4-6 in his no decisions for an overall 11-9 mark) this season. Of more concern for Cincy fans is this. Leake posted a 1.95 ERA in his first 11 starts of 2010 but has allowed four or more ERs in SIX of his last nine starts, posting 7.53 ERA in that span. I'm NOT going against Carpenter in this one. Take the Cards.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago White Sox -132
We'll back the White Sox Monday as they look to split this series with the lowly Baltimore Orioles. Yes, Baltimore has been playing well lately, but we cannot see them taking 3 our of 4 from the AL Central-leading White Sox in this series. Chicago traded for Edwin Jackson, and he was impressive in his first start. Jackson allowed 1 earned run in 7 innings to get the win in a 4-1 victory at Detroit. Jackson owns a 4-1 record in 5 career starts against the Orioles. Brian Matusz has been awful this season for Baltimore, going 4-11 with a 5.26 ERA. Matusz is 0-7 (-7.3 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Chicago has been pitching very well, allowing 4 runs or less in 5 straight games. They have allowed 4 or less in 8 of their last 10. The White Sox are 9-0 (+9.7 Units) against the money line after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games this season. Look for Chicago to get their bats going tonight against Matusz, while Jackson and the bullpen hold the Orioles in check. Take Chicago on the Money Line.
Dan Bebe
KAN (+192) vs ANA
There's no doubt about it, this Free Play is on the ballsier side, but there are two key reasons I like it, and why we'll make it a small play.
First, the Angels are coming home off a road trip to the East (and near-East), getting hammered in Baltimore, and then doing a better job in Detroit. Still, the results of that trip are somewhat irrelevant here, as we've seen time and time again teams coming back to the West Coast after significant time East have trouble adjusting, and the offenses often go to sleep for the first 6-7 innings of the game.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is headed due South from a series in Seattle. They are already on Pacific time, and while the flight from Seattle to Orange County isn't exactly quick, being in the correct time zone makes all the difference. Kansas City has been struggling to hit on this road trip through Oakland and Seattle, but I think they'll perk up against a weaker pitching staff in a slightly more hitter-friendly ballpark. It won't be a fireworks show, but I expect them to get 3-4 runs off the sleepy Angels.
The other reason I like this one is revenge. Sean O'Sullivan, the Royals starter, was an Angel as recently as a few weeks ago. He's going to be amped up to pitch against his old organization, the club that shipped him to Kansas City. Let's remember, being traded to the Royals generally doesn't make a ballplayer happy. O'Sullivan is going to have a chip on his shoulder, and at this dog price, in a game where I expect Kansas City to be highly competitive, we'll take a SMALL shot with a BIG dog.