Hollywood Sports
Royals at Angels
Prediction: Over
Ervin Santana goes for Los Angeles with his 10-8 mark along with a 4.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. But Santana has not fared well in Angels Stadium this season given his 4.52 ERA as opposed to his 3.70 ERA on the road. Furthermore, Santana has not fared well against the Royals in his career given his 4.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .286 opponent's batting average in 58 1/3 innings of work. And in the Angels last six opening games of a series with Santana taking the ball, the game went Over the Total five times. KC counters with Sean O'Sullivan with his 1-2 record with a 4.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. But over his last three starts, O'Sullivan has produced a 6.06 ERA.
On a deeper level, both of these pitchers share a troubling sabermetric statistic that strongly suggests that they both will experience hard times in the future. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Santana and O'Sullivan have high ISO's of .172 and .158 respectively which indicates they both have been giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future. Take the Over here while listing both pitchers.