Larry Ness
Milwaukee vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
Milwaukee ‘limps’ into Washington for this four-game series on a five-game losing, which has dropped them to the bottom of MLB’s moneyline standings.
Jordan Zimmermann went 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA in 32 starts last year (that’s 12 no decisions). However, the Nats were 21-11 (plus-$946) in his starts, giving him MLB’s 9th-best moneyline mark in 2012. This year, he earned a decision in each of his first 11 starts and will enter this game 11-3 with a 2.28 ERA in 16 starts (team is 13-3 and his moneyline mark of plus-$967 ranks 4th among all starters). He’s allowed just 88 hits in his 114.2 innings plus owns a solid 80-17 KW ratio. Zimmermann takes the mound tonight, looking to tie for the major league lead with his 12th victory (Detroit’s Max Scherzer is 12-0).
He should like his chances. Milwaukee ‘limps’ into Washington for this four-game series on a five-game losing, which has dropped them to the bottom of MLB’s moneyline standings, at minus-$1,846. The Brewers have scored a measly 11 runs during their five-game slide and are still missing injured star Ryan Braun. Milwaukee has scored just twice in its last 31 innings and was held to four hits Sunday in a 2-1, 14-inning loss at Pittsburgh.
That hardly bodes well against Zimmermann, who in his only two career starts against the Brewers, has allowed two ERs over 12.2 innings with 13 Ks (2-0, 1.42 ERA). What’s more, Zimmermann is 8-0 with a 1.09 ERA in nine starts home starts in 2013 (team is 9-0). He's won 13 consecutive decisions at Nationals Park dating back to May 17, 2012, a span of 20 starts (Washington is 17-3 in all games).
The Brewers will send Yovani Gallardo to the mound and in 2013, he hasn’t been the same pitcher who has gone 14-7, 17-10 and 16-9 the last three years. Instead, he’s 6-7 with a 4.20 ERA in 17 starts (Brewers are 7-10). Gallardo lasted only four innings in his last outing (five runs allowed, three earned) and it marked the third time in 10 starts that Gallardo has failed to pitch more than four innings. He is 3-2 with a 4.89 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against Washington (Brewers are 4-3 in his seven starts, in which he’s posted a 5.13 ERA). The price is high but it’s justified.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays -159
The Rays have won their last five versus Houston and are in good position to extend this streak with Matt Moore on the pitcher's mound. He's been a reliable investment considering the Rays are 14-4 in his last 18 starts, 8-1 in his last 9 road starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite. Moore has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 17 starts. The Astros have had their share of problems with left-handed starters. They are hitting .243 and scoring 4.0 runs per game against them this season. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is batting .264 and scoring 5.0 runs per game off them so I like their chances of getting to Dallas Keuchel, who has an ERA of 4.35 at home.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay at Houston
Pick: Houston +1.5
There isn't a lot of positive things to say about a Houston team that dropped 213 games over the last two years, and enter this contest at 30-52. That is until their last 30 games, where Houston has played .500 baseball at 15-15. The pitching has really come around for this team as they have held 16 of their last 19 opponents to four runs or less, so the plus side of the run line certainly takes on some value here, especially facing a Tampa team off a big emotional home series vs. Detroit. Tampa's offense has struggled over their last 16 games where they have produced just 3.16 runs a contest. That puts them in a troublesome spot facing the negative side of the run line as well. Make the play on Houston on the run line.
Bob Balfe
New York Mets -110
There has not been much going right for either team, but the Diamondbacks are really slumping. This team probably has more on their mind with the wildfires going on in their home state. You would think this would be a perfect place to get a winning streak started, but I just don't see the energy level being there tonight. Marcum is 1-9 for the Mets and he in his own right is hoping for his team to take advantage of a slumping team to post a win. I however don't put too much into win/losses for starting pitchers. Marcum is the better starter in my opinion and New York should have their way tonight. Take the Mets.
Rob Veno
San Francisco at Cincinnati
Play: Under
Each of these teams is in an extensive offensive drought right now which should lend a helping hand to starters Michael Kickham and Bronson Arroyo. Over their last 10 games, San Francisco has gone ice cold at the plate hitting just .234 while averaging 2.3 runs per game. Cincinnati’s slump has lasted even longer as they’re now in the midst of a 17 game stretch where they’ve hit just .220 and averaged 2.8 runs per contest. Kickham made one stride in his second MLB outing last Tuesday by striking out five and walking none during his 5.2 inning stint but he was hurt by a pair of two-run homers which accounted for four of the five ER he allowed. Here against a more LH oriented Cincinnati lineup and in his third start overall, figure for a positive progression and somewhere between 5-6 solid innings from him. The Giants bullpen is rested, ready and deep enough to secure the back third here. For the Reds, Arroyo owns six consecutive quality outings at home and 11 total in 2013. Over his last six at home, Arroyo has thrown 41.3 innings with a 1.14 WHIP, 1.52 ERA and an efficient average of 13.59 pitches per inning. Like San Francisco, the Reds bullpen is completely available tonight and they have the arms to neutralize SFG late in the game. Giants’ games have totaled seven or less in seven of their last 10 while Cincinnati games have stayed below nine in 13 of their last 17. Signals point toward value in playing the total under in this game.
Rocketman
Arizona @ NY Mets
Play: NY Mets +103
The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to New York to take on the Mets on Monday night. The Mets have played better baseball recently winning three out of their past four games overall. Arizona is scoring only 3 runs per game their past seven games overall. The NY Mets are allowing only 3.1 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have allowed an opponent team batting average of only .228. Wade Miley is 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA overall this year and 0-2 his last 3 starts. The NY Mets are 5-1 at home vs Arizona the past 3 years. Miley is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA in all his starts vs NY Mets in his career. We'll recommend a small play on NY Mets tonight!
Harry Bondi
MIAMI (-125) over San Diego
We cashed again with the Free Play yesterday and went 2-0 on the Baseball Steam Team Phone service to end the week 8-3, +1,480!. The free plays were also 6-1 last week including many big underdog winners. The one FREE game loss we had last week was on Miami and I can't believe I'm backing them again tonight but it's tough not to be impressed with what tonight's Marlins starter, Jose Fernandez has accomplished on the mound over the last month. He's 4-1 in his last five starts and has become Miami's best pitcher. Marlins have won seven of their last nine games and should easily handle a Padres squad that starts what's left of Jason Marquis tonight. Marquis has been completely ineffective lately going 0-3 in his last 3 starts and he is averaging a walk per inning over that time period. That lack of control kills him again! Take Miami