Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday July, 16

MTi Sports

Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Since the start of the 2011 season, the Twins are 0-13 in a home series opener at night when they lost yesterday. Note that the Twins have lost by an average of 4.2 runs per game in this spot.

Vegas Experts

St. Louis at Milwaukee
Play: St. Louis

We'll back the 11-game winner in Lance Lynn tonight as a small road underdog against Michael Fiers and the hosting Milwaukee Brewers. Lynn had a bit of a rough stretch prior to the All-Star break, but did rebound with a very good outing his last time out - allowing no runs over six innings against Colorado. Lynn already shut down the Brewers here in Milwaukee to the tune of one run over 6 2/3 innings, and while Fiers has good numbers this season, the Brewers have one only once in his four home starts. Back the better pitcher tonight with a small underdog return!

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston comes home for the Return of Youkilis. They do so with the benefit of a solid plays against system that applies to Chicago as we note that road dogs off a road favored win, while scoring 4 or less runs have struggled vs teams like Boston off a road win. Boston will look to snap a 7 game home losing streak to Chicago in this one. The Pitching looks about even, but one would think that Boston would want this one more.

Marc Lawrence

Baltimore vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota

When the Twins open a three-game home series with the Orioles Monday night, Minnesota will send the steady serves of Scott Diamond to the mound knowing he is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA in this park this season. On the flip side the Birds enter with a dismal 2-6 log in their last eight games against American League Central division foes. With the Orioles 1-6 in their last seven road series openers and the Twins 1-8 on Mondays, their worst day of the week this season, look for Diamond to sparkle once again here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play Minnesota.

Bryan Power

Arizona vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Arizona

Though these teams experienced some very different results to start the second half, I feel there is significant value on visiting Arizona in the series opener at Great American Ballpark vs. the Cincinnati Reds. The Diamondbacks got off to a terrible start to the second half, getting swept by the lowly Cubs while Cincinnati recorded a huge sweep of their own - against division rival St. Louis. But I like Arizona pitcher Wade Miley, who goes Monday, and I think the Reds are prone to a letdown after winning late Sunday night.

Wade Miley is having an outstanding season for Arizona despite back to back subpar outings to end the 1st half. He has a 3.03 ERA in 14 starts this year and should keep in check a Reds lineup that's averaging only four runs per game versus lefties. Furthermore, Cincinnati's offense hasn't been all that great of late, even after sweeping St. Louis. They are averaging less than 4.0 rpg over the last eight games.

Sean Murphy

Chicago vs. Boston
Pick: Chicago

The White Sox continue to roll along, fresh off a series win in Kansas City over the weekend. They've now posted seven wins in their last nine games, and own a tremendous 13-5 record dating back to June 28th.

Chicago did drop three of four games against the Red Sox at home in late April, but there's no question, the White Sox are a much better team today than they were at that early stage of the season.

Boston delivered a series win over the Rays in St. Petersburg over the weekend, but remains just 3-7 over its last 10 ball games. It's not as if the Red Sox have been anything special here at Fenway Park this season, having gone a miserable 22-24 to date.

There's not much to choose from on the mound tonight as the White Sox send Dylan Axelrod against the Red Sox Aaron Cook.

Despite his ugly numbers so far this season, I still believe Axelrod has plenty of upside. He's actually been at his best in limited action on the road this season, recording a 2.70 ERA in 13 1/3 innings of work. Keep in mind, he was on the hill for a 4-3 White Sox victory at Yankee Stadium less than three weeks ago. In fact, Chicago owns a solid 5-3 record in Axelrod's eight previous big league starts.

Aaron Cook was cut loose by the Rockies in the offseason, and for good reason, after he went 3-10 with a 6.03 ERA last year. He's 2-2 with a 4.37 ERA in four starts with the Red Sox this season, which isn't awful, but take a deeper look and there's reason for concern. Cook has been tagged for 25 hits while striking out only two hitters in 22 2/3 innings of work. Tonight's game represents arguably his toughest matchup to date.

The Red Sox bullpen has been outstanding lately, but White Sox relievers have been terrific all season. The Chicago 'pen enters Monday's game sporting a terrific 2.69 ERA on the road - a big reason why the White Sox are eight games over .500 away from home.

Chicago is 4.5 games ahead of Boston in the A.L. standings, but not surprisingly, it isn't getting a lot of respect in this matchup tonight. The combination of a young starter taking the hill for the visitors, and the Red Sox coming off an impressive series win over the Rays has left Boston slightly overvalued in my opinion.

Jesse Schule

Blue Jays vs.Yankees
Pick: Yankees

The Blue Jays are in town to kick off a series with the Bronx Bombers. Both these teams have scored their fair share of runs this season, in fact the Yankees lead the majors with 142 home runs, and the Blue Jays aren't far behind with 130.

"It's not weird when you give up 10 runs, but it is kind of strange that you hit four home runs and you don't win the game," manager Joe Girardi said.

The Yankees hit four home runs yesterday in a losing effort against the Angels, who homered twice in the first inning. They will be swinging for the fences again today, with Henderson Alvarez on the mound for Toronto. Alvarez (5-7, 4.36 ERA) has only faced the Yankees once in his career, and he gave up five runs over six innings, with the Jays losing 7-6 at home. Alvarez has struggled all year, and he has a 6.19 ERA over his last nine starts.

Phil Hughes will get the nod for New York, and he has been more consistent for the Yankees. Hughes (9-7, 4.33 ERA) took a loss in his last start, giving up five runs on 10 hits in a 9-5 loss to the Red Sox in Boston. Prior to that however, he had two consecutive excellent outings, going eight innings in each, and allowing just a pair of runs, while earning the victory on both occasions.

The Yankees should come out on top in a slugfest here today.

Jim Feist

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

The St Louis Cardinals entered their Sunday night game against Cincinnati 3 1/2 back of the Reds. The Cardinals lost the opening two games of the series to Cincinnati and had seen their win streak drop to six wins in their last 10 games. Now the Cardinals travel to the defending NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers to start a series on Monday. The Brewers won on Sunday, making it six wins in their last 10 games. Milwaukee is a far cry from the team they were last season. They sit 7 1/2 back of the Reds and that could be either 7 or 8 depending on the Reds Sunday night outcome. The Cardinals are one of the better hitting teams in the NL, with 4.9 runs per game on average and a batting average of .274. The Brewers haven't gotten much pitching this season, especially from the pen. Milwaukee's pen has a 5.97 ERA at home with a lofty 1.668 WHIP. The pen has also blown 10 saves at home this year. Lance Lynn starts for the Cardinals tonight. Lynn is 11-4 with a nice 3.41 ERA. He's also done well on the road with a 6-2 record and 3.56 ERA. In fact, the Cardinals have won seven of Lynn's 10 starts on the road. Michael Fiers has also done well for the Brewers with a 3-3 record and 2.31 ERA. However, unlike Lynn, the Brewers have won just one of Fiers four home starts this season. Add to that a terrible Milaukee bullpen and I like taking the visitor here at even money. Take St Louis.

Dave Cokin

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals
Pick: Seattle Mariners

Playing Jason Vargas on the road is risky, but not as much of a gamble as playing on Jonathan Sanchez anywhere. The Royals also continue to be awful at home, and lefties can dominate them at times. I'll take the Mariners.

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +124 over BOSTON

Dylan Axelrod is not going to dazzle many. He’s typically been a fill-in for injured players and to date, he has just five starts and three relief appearances. However, his 6.16 ERA is more than two runs higher than his xERA of 4.32. He also has a 49% groundball rate. Groundball pitchers always have a chance to do well but this isn’t about backing Axelrod. Aaron Cook goes for the Red Sox. In 23 innings, Cook has just two strikeouts. He has not struck out a single batter in three of his four starts. He relies on luck and defense. His last two starts were in Oakland and Seattle and those two parks have a way of making lousy starters look good. Get him in a hitter’s park like Fenway and the results should be much different. In two starts at Fenway, Cook has allowed 14 hits and eight runs in 7.2 innings for an ERA of 9.19. Expect the South Side to be a little extra jacked up here in support of Kevin Youkilis, who returns to Boston for the first time since changing his Sox. Aaron Cook is on our top list of pitchers to be faded when favored.

Washington -101 over MIAMI

Overall, the Nationals are 51-35. On the road, they’re 27-19 and they’ve won two of three in this four-game set so far. On paper, it appears as though Edwin Jackson is coming off consecutive rough starts with 12 runs allowed over 8.2 innings. However, one of those came in Colorado so we’re not going to put too much weight into that one. In his last start against the Giants, Jackson allowed a three-run homer to Pablo Sandoval in the first inning before settling down for the next four-plus frames. Truth is, Jackson has had one bad outing over his past 11 starts. Prior to outing at Coors, he had gone 11 straight allowing three runs or less and in seven of those starts, he allowed two runs or less. Carlos Zambrano’s career has not been rejuvenated in Miami. His flying start was mostly luck. He’s back to being the same pitcher he was in Chicago, long after his heyday. He’s still walking too many batters (53 in 101 IP). At home, he’s 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA. Zambrano has a history of being a volatile pitcher and now that things aren’t going so well, he’s not only going to have to fight to succeed with flat skills, he’s going to have to deal with his fragile psychological issues. Durability is also a concern. Zambrano has not reached the 200 IP level since 2007. He’s been struggling in the second half for several years now. His lacklustre skills and volatile emotional history question whether the season will end well. We’re betting it will not.

Jimmy Boyd

San Diego Padres -123

I'll fade Houston here considering how poorly it has performed on the road. It is just 9-35 away from home on the season, and its road struggles figure to continue with Happ on the hill. The southpaw is 0-4 (1-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.82 in six road starts. Looking back further, the Astros are 18-66 in their last 84 road games, 9-42 in their last 51 road games versus a team with a losing record, 3-18 in Happ's last 21 road starts and 1-10 in his last 11 road starts versus a team with a losing record. It is also worth noting that the Astros have dropped six of their last seven in San Diego. We'll take the Padres.

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

Detroit won two of three in Baltimore over the weekend to keep pace with the White Sox in the American League Central. The Tigers are only three games over .500 but trail Chicago by just 3.5 games so everything is still well within reach. They had won five straight games prior to the series win and all of those came at home where they are finally back over .500 once again. The offense has started to produce a lot more and the Tigers are 15-5 in their last 20 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150. The Angels lost two of three in New York but it was able to salvage the final game to avoid the sweep. They have been playing a lot better after a very slow start but they have dropped four of their last five road games and still trail the Rangers by five games in the American League West. The problem has been pitching with a starting ERA of 4.49 on the highway and this is another tough spot as Los Angeles is 3-7 in its last 10 games as a road underdog. The Tigers trot out Rick Porcello who has been pitching much better of late. He did struggle in his last outing where he went just 3.2 innings and allowed three runs but prior to that, he tossed three straight quality outings which was the first time all season he had accomplished that. Detroit has won his last three starts and six of his last eight as it has been piling up the runs after not doing so in the first part of the season. The Tigers are 21-9 in Porcello's last 30 starts as a favorite. The Angels hope the All-Star break helped Ervin Santana as he is coming off two dreadful outings. He allowed 13 runs in 6.1 innings including giving up eight runs in only 1.1 innings against the Indians last time out. He has been shellacked in his last three road starts, posting a 15.00 ERA in those games. The road has always been an issue for Santana and it is definitely showing right now. Going back further, the Angels are 1-8 in Santana's last nine starts against teams with a winning record.

Lenny Del Genio

Toronto vs. NY Yankees
Pick: NY Yankees

Despite dropping a pair of games earlier in the year at Rogers Centre, we feel that Toronto is a very favorable matchup for the Yankees, particularly here at home. Toronto's starting rotation is in shambles right now and Monday's starter Henderson Alvarez has a 5-12 TSR in 2012 and was tagged for five runs by Kansas City in his most recent start. The formidable Yankees offense, which is averaging 6.7 runs per game the last 7 games, is a whole different animal. Despite losing Sunday's series finale vs. the Angels, which cost them a sweep, New York still got to Jered Weaver for five runs in seven innings. That was just the Yanks second loss in their last eight games. Look for them to rebound here behind Phil Hughes, who has a 2.11 ERA his L3 starts overall and a 20-2 TSR as a favorite in the -175 to -250 price range (16-1 at home!)

Dave Price

NY Yankees -175

The Yankees get the call as my free play tonight as they are an awesome 16-1 with Hughes on the mound as a home favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 3 seasons. Plus, the Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 series openers, 2-8 in Alvarez's last 10 starts and 0-5 in the last 5 meetings at Yankee Stadium. Lastly, the Yankees are 7-3 in Hughes' last 10 starts vs. the Blue Jays and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts vs. them. Take the Yankees.