Jack Jones
Seattle Mariners -103
The Seattle Mariners have a big edge on the mound tonight, yet we're still getting them at nearly even money against the Kansas City Royals. I'll gladly back the underrated Jason Vargas over Jonathan Sanchez in Game 1 of this series Monday.
Vargas is 8-7 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in his last three outings. In his last two starts against Kansas City, Vargas is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA, allowing just two earned runs over 12 innings.
Sanchez has been one of the worst starters in all of baseball this season. The left-hander is 1-5 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.942 WHIP in 11 starts, including 0-1 with an 8.43 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in five home outings.
Seattle is 12-4 after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Mariners are 8-2 after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival this season. The Royals are 0-7 in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. The Mariners are 5-1 in Vargas' last 6 starts vs. American League Central. Kansas City is 0-5 in Sanchez's last 5 starts as an underdog. Bet Seattle Monday.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago White Sox +116
The White Sox are showing value at this price considering they have won 7 in a row at Boston. The White Sox are certainly the team in better current form as they have won 7 of their last 9 while the Red Sox have dropped 7 of 10. Chicago's Dylan Axelrod was shelled in his start but the White Sox are 5-2 in his last 7 starts dating back to last season. I expect him to have some success tonight versus a Boston lineup that isn't very familiar with him. Take the South Siders.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Kansas City/ Seattle Over 9: This Seattle offense is light night and day when it comes to scoring at home as opposed to on the road. The Mariners struggle to score at home, putting up just 2.86 rpg with a .196 BA, but on the road they have averaged nearly 2 rpg more, putting up 4.78 rpg, while hitting .256. Those solid road numbers should continue here vs Jonathan Sanchez, who has really been bad this year. Overall Sanchez has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP in 11 starts, while at home he has an 8.44 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in 5 starts. Very bad numbers indeed and Seattle should capitalize. Jonathan's starts overall have averaged 11.09 rpg, while his home starts have averaged 13.8 rpg. Jason Vargas comes in pitching well with a 1.52 ERA in his last 3 starts, but a closer look shows that 2 of those starts were at home and the 3rd starts was at offensively challenged Oakland. Overall on the road this year Jason may have a winning record (6-4), but he has a high 5.09 ERA to go along with it and that has helped produce 11.09 rpg in his l1 road starts. The Over is 8-3 in his road starts, compared to a 7-1 UNDER mark in his home starts. He will be facing a Royals offense that has come around a bit after averaging 4.9 rpg in their last 10 games. Seattle's last 10 games have averaged just 5.9 rpg, but 7 of those games were at home and the other 3 were in Oakland. Overall this year Mariner road games have averaged 9.7 rpg, while KC home games have put up 9.1 rpg. I don't see how this one doesn't hit at least 10 runs.
CINCINNATI -131 over Arizona: This should be a higher rated play, but with the Reds coming off an emotional weekend sweep of the Cards and with the possibility of no Chapman tonight (he pitched 3 days in a row), I will play it safe and keep it at a 3 Unit play. The Reds are hot right now and with Pittsburgh struggling a little they know they have a chance to put some distance between themselves and the Pirates, so I don't really expect a letdown after the St Louis series. Wade Miley had been rolling a long, but he has been touched for 12 ER's in his last 2 starts. On the road he is 3-3 with a 3.40 ERA overall, but in his last 3 on the road he is 0-3 with a 6.26 ERA. Those road number may not get any better after tonight. The Reds average 4.6 rpg at home, but they have really hit lefties well at home, hitting .292 and scoring 5.6 rp/9 off of them. In contrast we have a D-Backs team that has hit just .225 and have scored just 3.2 rp/9 off of righties on the road. They will be facing Bronson Arroyo, who is 1-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last 3 starts. He may be 0-1 at home this year, but he has a good 3.71 ERA, with the Reds going 5-2 in his 7 home starts. Bronson has faced Arizona twice in each of the last 2 years and he is 3-1 with a 2,45 ERA in those 4 starts. The Reds have the momentum and should be motivated for this one, as they take care of a slumping Arizona team in game 1 of this 4 game series.
Philadelphia/ Dodgers Under 7.5: Joe Blanton has really struggled for the Phils this year, with a 4.98 ERA overall and a 5.23 ERa on the road, but he has looked somewhat better of late, allowing 3 ER's or less in 3 of his last 5 starts, while in his last two road starts vs Miami and Minnesota he has allowed 4 total ER's and the dodgers offense is not not even close to those two teams. LA is till struggling to score and they really don't score much with Nathan Eovaldi on the mound. in his 8 starts this year the dodgers have averaged just 1.12 rpg for him, while in his 3 home starts they have put up just 0.67 rpg for him. His starts have averaged just 4.38 rpg overall, while his home starts have averaged just 3.67 rpg. Nathan has pitched well at home with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP and should be able to hold down a Phiily offense that has averaged just 3.8 rpg in their last 10 games. I have been playing some overs in Dodgers games of late, but I will head the other way with this one as I expect no more than 6 runs to be scored here.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (6-6 -1.68 UNITS)
Since 2009, when playing a 2:00 pm or later game after scoring 3 runs or less and winning, the Over is 21-4 in Toronto games. Play On the Over 10.5 in the Toronto/ Yanks Game.
Since 2006, The Blue Jays are 0-12 in a series opener when they are off a win vs an AL opponent and they scored 3 runs or less in that win. Play On New York Yanks -173
Tony George
Cleveland +120
Tampa’s offense in a funk and the middle of their hitting rotation is in poor shape due to injuries. Tampa starts Cobb who behind him the Rays are 0-4 his last 4 as a favorite when he starts for them. Cleveland playing better ball and have a real chance in their division (who wouldn’t in AL Central?). I like them in the dog role tonight with a decent pitcher on the hill in McAllister, and I think he gets better run support tonight.
GoodFella
Washington -108
Tonight's the night the Nationals put some more distance between themselves and the rest of the NL East, in in this case the Marlins might have nobody to blame but Ozzie. His comments towards Bryce Harper will only serve to motivate Washington to go for the series win. In his last few starts Zambrano has appeared to be the old Carlos that does more to distract a dugout, and his home/road splits clearly show that his inability to pitch in this new stadium (a whopping 6.00 ERA) is something the hungry Nationals will exploit. Washington has the better bullpen, the better lineup, the momentum, the better manager & my money is on the NATIONALS tonight.
Ross King
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
Detroit is 15-6 after shutting out their opponents and at home they are 127-84 over the last 3 seasons.They are currently 8-3 in July.Santana is 6-2 versus Detroit 3.57 e.r.a and has beaten Detroit the last 4 times however the last time was in 2009.Santana also has the third highest e.r.a in the American League and has given up 5 runs in 5 of his last 7 starts including his last game before the break where he only retired 4 batters while giving up 8 runs versus Cleveland.The Angels also have lost 7 of 13.Porcello has won last 3 in this series and is 2-1 2.28 e.r.a.overall in his last 4 games prior to missing his last two starts.Cabrera has 13 of his 19 homers at home.Take Detroit who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings in this series with a starter that has been much better than his opponent this season and are hotter with an 8-3 July as your freeplay winner.
Chris Elliott
Phillies vs. Dodgers
Pick: Over
The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers Monday evening.
Joe Blanton will toe the rubber for the Phillies with a record of 7-7, 4.92 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Blanton has been sub par in his last 10 starts, allowing 45 runs in 61.2 innings for a massive ERA of 6.57. In his last 20 road starts, the "Over" has hit 11-8-1. In his last 5 starts agains the Dodgers, the "Over" has hit 3-2.
Rookie Nathan Eovaldi will counter the Phillies and Blanton. Eovaldi has struggled this season with a record of 1-5, 4.21 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. In his last 3 starts, Eovaldi has been railroaded allowing 14 runs in 16.1 innings for a massive ERA of 7.73! Eovaldi has never face Philly in his young career.
The Phillies have been an "Over" hitting machine all season! With Utley and Howard back this trend should easily continue! With Blanton on the hill, the chances of the "Over" hitting is amplified! On the season for Philly, the "Over" has hit 54-33 overall, 30-16 on the road, 53-31 on grass, 39-20 at night, 39-19 vs. RHP and 33-12 against teams with winning records!
The Dodgers have not hit the "Over" as regularly as the "Under" however with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier back in the lineup, look for the "Over" to take charge! Ethier is 5-11 with 1 HR and 5 RBI in 3 games since returning from the DL and Kemp has 5 hits in 9 at bats in 2 games since returning from the DL! Look for these two power bats in the middle of the lineup to change the offensive fortunes of this team!
These two teams have squared off 4 times this season with the "Over" hitting 75%! With a current total of 7.5, expect the pitchers to struggle and the offense to take over! Take the "Over" to win in this game
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Monday night is going to be the Tampa Bay Rays against the Cleveland Indians, and in sort of a twist, I want you listing the Tribe's Zach McAllister.
Even though this kid 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA on the year, and even though he allowed four runs, none which were earned, in his last outing, and matched a career high with eight strikeouts, I still think he's in big trouble at Tropicana Field tonight.
Get this, in seven starts this season, the-24-year-old has allowed more than three earned runs just once. Yet he's catching an awfully big price while facing a right-hander who hasn't exactly been superior for the Rays this season.
Tampa's Alex Cobb is 4-5 with a 4.89 ERA, and is just 3-4 with a 4.63 ERA in 10 career starts at the Trop. In his last three outings he is 1-2 with a 6.98 ERA. And yet this guy is laying $1.40 to the Rays?
The oddsmakers are dictating how this one will go. Take the Rays, and list McAllister.
1♦ TAMPA BAY
Chuck O'Brien
The free-pick run continues to make players money, as I'm now on a 78-45 spree with the comp plays, and love what I'm seeing with tonight's clash at Target Field, where the Baltimore Orioles are visiting the Minnesota Twins. Both teams come into this one struggling, and for the season, it's been the O's who have been the better club. That's why when I see the Twins laying this big a price, I have to believe the oddsmakers know that they're doing.
Minnesota, sitting in last place in the American League Central, comes in after being swept by the Athletics, the seventh time this season the Twins have been swept, and yet I have confidence starting pitcher Scott Diamond will be just fine against the O's.
Diamond, the former undrafted free agent, has been a reliable force for the Twins and comes in after completing his ninth quality start in his 12th outing of the season, against Detroit on July 5. The 25-year-old lefty is 7-3 with a 2.62 ERA and owns a 2.01 ERA at home. Tonight he gets an Orioles team that has gone 9-16 since June 15, and that has averaged 2.8 runs per game.
My whole basis for taking the Twins has to be on Diamond, as the oddsmakers have made this price likely cause of him. List him only, and play the home team.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Over in the Seattle-Kansas City game.
The Mariners will send Jason Vargas to the mound, and he ended the first half of the season with a solid 1-0 mark over his final three starts of the first half with an ERA of 1.52, but Vargas has had his struggles pitching away from Safeco Field, sporting an over five ERA in his road starts this season.
As for Royals starter Jonathan Sanchez, he has totally lost his way since coming over to the American League from San Francisco. The southpaw is winless since April, and owns a rather large 6.75 ERA for the season. Over his last three starts, that ERA stands at 9.75.
Seattle has been held to 10 runs their last four games, but something tells me that even the punchless M's will get something started against Sanchez tonight.
Kansas City has played Over the total in three of their last five, and I like them to go Over the total again tonight in this series opener.
Mariners-Royals go high.
2♦ OVER
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play...
I'm on a 42-28 roll with these plays I'm giving away daily.
How in the world can I side with Carlos Zambrano when he's been so bad this year with Miami? Well, his team has NEVER lost 7 straight of his starts in any of his 12 seasons in the bigs.
Zambrano (4-7, 4.20 ERA) is 0-4 with a disgusting 8.00 ERA in his last six starts with the Marlins, and if this record is really as strong as it seems, Zambrano should be able to get the job done at home tonight.
Keep in mind, he's 7-2 with a 2.83 lifetime ERA vs. the Nationals including 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA against them this year. Folks, that's not a fluke... that's domination. Zambrano's teams haven't lost this many games since 2007 when he went 0-5 with an 8.29 ERA with the Cubs.
Just like 2007, the streak ends tonight.
True, Miami hasn't been hitting well recently (.213 and only two extra-base hits in this series) and they aren't producing with runners on base, but they do have a solid record against the Nats over the past five seasons and they will run out of time to compete in the East if they don't start winning these games against competitors in their own division.
I think the Marlins get it done tonight and earn a much-needed split.
Take the Marlins as your free play of the day.
1♦ MIAMI
Chris Jordan
Yesterday I delivered a side winner for the freebie, and a total as my premium selection. Tonight I have an easy side winner as my big play, and will look to extend my 17-6 free-pick run with a total, as I like the Angels/Tigers game to go over the posted number. I see the oddsmakers have a 10 posted, with the under being the slight favorite.
That means a very good price for what I like in this game, as I see both offenses shining tonight.
The boys of Anaheim are handing the ball to Ervin Santana, who is going to be out to rebound from an up-and-down first half that ended on a sour note, as he was slammed for eight runs on six hits and three walks in just 1-1/3 innings versus the Cleveland Indians on July 4.
Now he has to take on a Detroit Tigers team that hails from the same American League division as the Tribe, and he's on the road. Santana, who is 4-9 with a 5.75 ERA on the year has an abysmal 7.45 ERA on the highway. Something tells me he will be yanked early in this one, as the Angels will be in another marathon, after their games in the Bronx tallied an average of 12.3 runs per game over the weekend.
The Tigers are giving the ball to right-hander Rick Porcello, who was somewhat of a disappointment this season, until recently. The sinkerball-specialist posted a 5.18 ERA through his first 13 starts, but to his credit, he has pitched to a 2.28 mark since. Nevertheless, he allowed 12 hits and lasted a mere 3-2/3 innings in his last trip to the mound. And even though he is 3-1 against the Halos during his career, he also sports a 5.97 ERA against them.
Believe me, with the Angels ranking third in the American League with 215 runs scored on the road this season, they're not going to be too concerned about having to play in Motown to start the week.
Look for a high number to come in, as these two put up at least a dozen.
3♦ OVER
Matt Rivers
My free play run is 13-8 the last three weeks, and tonight's free play will be the Pirates to come through at Colorado.
Pittsburgh has been bumped out of first place as they have come out of the break with losses in 2 of their first 3 on this road swing. Tonight looks like a good night for them to get back to their winning ways though, as they face a Colorado team that is in the cellar of the West standings, and are just 19-27 at Coors Field for the year.
The Bucs have still won 11 of their last 15 games overall, and scored wins over the Rockies in 4 of the last 6 meetings dating back to last season.
Jeff Karstens and Jeff Francis will face off, and both have been pitching some pretty solid ball of late, as both enter with 2-1 marks over their last three starts, but it is Karstens that has really impressed me over his last pair of starts.
Karstens has fired 15 innings of 8 hit ball his last pair of trips to the mound, allowing just 2 earned runs while fanning 15. I think Karstens will keep Colorado off the base paths long enough for the red-hot Andrew McCutchen to continue his torrid month of July.
Pittsburgh with a much-needed win tonight over Colorado to open their three game set.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Dom Chambers
With the Brewers beating the Pirates on Sunday, it was my sixth straight comp pick winner.
Let’s go for seven.
Today, for the free play, let’s stick with the Milwaukee Brewers in their opener against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Michael Fiers starts for the Brewers and he has been on a tear lately. In seven games started, he is 3-3 with a 2.37 ERA. In his last three starts, he is 1-1, but he has an ERA of 0.87 and a WHIP of 0.920. He has given up only two runs in his last 20 2/3 innings.
Lance Lynn starts for the Cardinals. He started out good and overall he is 11-4 with a 3.41 ERA. But in his last three starts, he is 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA.
The Brewers have the pitching edge here, and the Cardinals have hit a bump in the road, losing three straight and four out of six.
The Brewers have won three of their last four.
Take the hotter team with the better pitching.
Take the Brewers.
3♦ BREWERS
Blade,
Sean's Sports Picks
NY Yankees over 5.5 runs - 120
Alot of sharp's will be on the Yankees tonight and with good reason, but I prefer not to lay a big tag. The better value is to go with the Yanks to score more than 5.5 runs. It might seem high but one thing the Yankees do better than anyone is hit the longball. It's going to be another hot night in the Bronx and balls should be flying out again. Throw in the inconsistency of Henderson Alvarez vs. the stacked Yankee line-up, Cano riding an 18 game hitting streak, and even A-rod is starting to heat up. Yankees soar over 5.5 runs.