Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 19,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
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The A's open a three game set with the Red Sox when they send Big Ben Sheets to the mound in Oakland this evening. Sheets enters tonight's fray with one walk and 22 strikeouts in his last four home starts. Going further, he's also 5-2 with a 3.00 in his last seven home starts. Look for Sheets to improve to 8-4 in his last 12 home teams starts here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.

Frank Jordan
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San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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San Francisco and Los Angeles have a rivalry that goes back to their East Coast days in New York. These two teams had different weekends with San Francisco winning three of four nearly sweeping the Mets and the Dodgers getting swept at St. Louis. These two teams are two separate teams as they are both under .500 on the road and 10 games over at home. Look for Los Angeles to use that to their advantage as they win their first game in the second half with a win at home over the hated Giants. Play Los Angeles

BIG AL
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Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Houston Astros
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The great Carlos Silva meltdown has officially begun. Silva tried to do his best Carlos Zambrano impression in his last start of the first half when he surrendered six earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Dodgers and got ejected from the game when he argued a close play at first base. The big righthander who shares the same first name with another big righthander for the team - the often-troubled head case Zambrano - was perhaps the unlikeliest success story in the N.L. over the first half of the season, but Silva - who was just 1-3 with an 8.60 ERA last season for Seattle - could be waking up from his dream now and heading back to the reality that he is a below-average starter on a bad team. His ERA rose from 2.96 to 3.45 in that last debacle and the Cubs now just 1-5 in his last six starts. Houston southpaw Wandy Rodriguez lost for the first time in four starts in his last outing of the first half (also on July 11) but he pitched very well, holding the Cardinals to just three earned runs in six innings while striking out six and walking just two. He's already faced the Cubs at Wrigley this season back on May 18, a game which Houston won 3-2 although Rodriguez did not get the victory in that one. He certainly has a good chance to do that against Silva, who has also been nursing a sore calf. Take the Astros.

Johnny Banks
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
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Jeff Karstens 2-4 ERA 4.87 lasted just 5 innings in his July 10 start against the Brewers as he struggled to find the strike zone walking 6 batters. The Brewers knock Karstens out of the game Monday night.

EZWINNERS
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Chicago Cubs -170
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The Astro's starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez is having a bad year with a 6-11 record and ERA of 4.97. When pitching on the road, Rodriguez has been even worse. Wandy is only 2-6 with an ERA of 5.79 on the road and he has allowed his opponents to bat .316 against him away from Minute Maid park. Houston also does not have much of an offense so when he does pitch well he usually doesn't receive much offensive support and I don't expect that to chance in this game against the Cubs with Carlos Silva on the mound. Silva has been a major surprise for the Cubs this season posting a 9-3 record with an ERA of 3.45 for an underachieving Chicago team. Silva has already picked up a win against the Astros this season pitching seven shutout inning of five hit ball and I expect another solid outing by him here again. The Astros are only 3-13 in Rodriguez's last sixteen road starts and the Cubs bats are starting to heat up. Play on Chicago.

JIM FEIST

BREWERS / PIRATES
PLAY: OVER

The Pirates offense was taken off life support over the weekend, accumulating more hits in consecutive games than they had in over three decades. Of course you have to take a this with a grain of salt since it came at the expense of the Houston Astros. Chris Capuano has resurfaced this year, his first time back in the majors since 2007. So far Capuano has only one start and in that one he lasted just 3 2/3 innings. Capuano is filling the spot of injured Doug Davis. Capuano also hasn't done well against the Pirates, going 2-6 lifetime with a 6.34 ERA. Jeff Karstens will start for the Pirates with a 2-4 mark and 4.87 ERA. Both of these teams are not very good, they don't have good pitchers going and considering the Pirates have some life again with the bats, I'm looking at a slug-fest here on Monday. I'll stick with the OVER here and not worry about who is going to win this game. Take the OVER on Monday between the Brewers and Pirates.

JR O'Donnell
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DET (-115) vs TEX
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Detroit Tigers -115 as this baby is a HUGE JR gut play as we are rolling with a Smooth 32-13 home field advantage @ Comerica. The Detroit Tigers have been dreadful since the break and tonight's Winner goes to J Bonderman. The Texas Rangers throw Feldman 5-8 and a dreadful 5.33 ERA tonight and he will not get by the Tigers who are ready to pounce! He has been shelled by the Tigers so far! Looking @ Bonderman who owns a 2-1 mark with a 4.93 ERA in 7 games vs. these Rangers. The Express will play the Tigers who are favored for a reason. The Tigers get JR's call.

Craig Trapp
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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Two of the MLB best square off, as the HR leading Jays try to beat the best hitting team in the Royals. Good for us that all the pitching stats point to a domination by starter Cecil for TOR. He is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two outings this month. For KC they will turn to Davies and hope he can keep the ball in the park. Only thing consistent about him is he is inconsistent. Best case for Davies is his average for the year 6 innings pitched allowing 3 runs. That will be plenty as Cecil will only allow one run over 8 before turning it over to bullpen for shutout 9th. TOR has been hot at plate and will continue as the hot summer in KC will have this ball flying out tonight.

MATT FARGO
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Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Houston Astros
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The Cubs are coming off a series win against the Phillies over the weekend as they took three of four including Sunday where they were able to get to Roy Halladay. They look to carry that into the series against the Astros and while letdowns in baseball are very uncommon compared to other sports, this is a situation where we have one. Houston meanwhile is coming off a series loss in Pittsburgh as the offense once again did nothing to help Roy Oswalt yesterday, scoring no runs. That actually puts the Astros in a solid underdog situation explained later. Wandy Rodriguez gets the call for Houston and he is pitching some of his best baseball of the season. He has tossed four straight quality starts and while the All-Star break has out a halt to that for now with the added time off, facing the Cubs should negate that. He has thrown four straight quality starts against Chicago as well going back to last season. This includes two straight at Wrigley Field with the latter coming earlier this season. Rodriguez has maintained a WHIP of 1.00 over those last four starts and it looks like he has ironed out some of his issues after a rough couple months. He squares off against Carlos Silva who is having one of the most surprising seasons in baseball. He is 9-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 17 starts. He is coming off one of his worst starts of the season in his last start before the break and it will be interesting to see how he responds. That along with the time off killed a lot of positive momentum he had built with seven straight quality starts. The situation mentioned earlier is to play on all underdogs after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, in a game involving two teams with losing records and winning percentages between .380 and .460. This situation is 29-12 (70.7 percent) since 1997. 3* Houston Astros

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -164
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The Cubs enter tonight's contest with some momentum after a convincing win over the reigning NL champs. I like the Cubs at home again tonight with Silva on the hill. Silva has been rock solid at Wrigley in 2010, going 4-2 with an ERA of 2.90. It is also important to note that the Cubs are 6-1 in Silva's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros bring Rodriguez to the hill, and I fully expect his road struggles to continue. He is just 2-6 with an ERA of 5.79 on the road this season. In fact, the Astros are 3-13 in Rodriguez's last 16 road starts and 0-7 in his last 7 Monday starts. It also can't be overlooked that Houston is 0-9 in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 2.4 to 6.3. Take the Cubbies.

Steve Janus

1* on Tigers -118
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Look for the Tigers to get back on track back in Detroit on Monday against the Texas Rangers. The Tigers lost 5 straight, including being swept in 4 games by the Cleveland Indians. At home in this series they should fare better.
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Jeremy Bonderman gets the start for Detroit. Bonderman has been at his best at home this season. In his 8 home starts the Tigers are 5-3 while Bonderman has posted a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
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Bonderman is opposed by the Rangers' Scott Feldman. Feldman is 5-8 on the season with a 5.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. The Rangers have lost in each of his last 3 starts.

Tony George
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
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What a Cheap number for a team, in the Brewers, considering they have DOMINATED the Pirates cashing in 11 out of the last 14 in this series and just wood shredded them right before the all star break with a 3-0 sweep. Pitt is weak against lefties at the plate and while Capuano is no stud for the Brew Crew, their bullpen has been red hot as of late and will bail them out in this game. The dominance of the Brewers in this series is well documented and they are off a 2-2 split with the Braves and smelling blood in the water here. Better overall pitching and bullpen, bat power and better team.

Cajun Sports
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies will look to get back on track with starter Kyle Kendrick (5-3, 4.44) on the bump. The right-hander, who threw one inning of scoreless relief in Thursday's 12 to 6 loss to the Cubs, is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four career starts versus the Cardinals. He gave up six hits in seven innings of a 4 to 0 win over St. Louis in Philadelphia back on May 5. MLB teams are 101-92 on the road versus a team that has won at least their last four games and it is the first game of a series for a profit of +3820 Units since 2006. We will back the Phillies here as they get a very important win on Monday night at Busch.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 5 St. Louis Cardinals 4

Sac Lawson

SFG (+101) vs LOS
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I know this is tough to do, because we're basically banking on the Dodgers to lose their 5th straight game, which is obviously a notion that is hard to accept. But the fact is, this team is facing up against a good young lefty in Madison Bumgarner; a guy they've never seen before, and a guy that has shown some great poise early on in his career.
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The Dodgers are #23 in the majors when it comes to Slugging% against left-handed pitching, and that means that they certainly aren't as comfortable with lefties on the mound. But Bumgarner isn't just any lefty, he's got tons of raw talent, and having never seen him before is a huge disadvantage for the Dodgers.

On the other side, it's always a struggle to force myself to bet SFO on the road, because they're certainly better at home. But, James McDonald is no starter. He's a long relief guy, and that means that he'll probably be maxed out at 5 innings, which means that the Dodgers need 4 pitchers to all be on top of their game to shut down San Fran tonight. That being said, I'm not even sure McDonald can make it into the 5th. His other major league starts certainly have not been too productive.
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Simple here. I think McDonald struggles, and I like Bumgarner's stuff, especially against a club that is slumping a bit and certainly doesn't hit lefties as well as righties. Giants 1 unit!

PHI (+110) vs STL
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To be brief... These teams are riding two different momentum trains. The Cards just swept the Dodgers to start the second half, and the Phillies just lost three of four to the Cubs. BUT, the Phillies send Kendrick to the mound who has been masterful against this Cardinals lineup throughout his short career (4-0 with an ERA under 2.0). Kendrick as the type of slider that can easily keep guys like Pujols and Holliday off balance, he can be very very tough against righties. He simply needs some run production!
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Hawksworth is a guy that has been a bit of a disappointment thus far, with a WHIP that is absolutely through the roof - in the 1.75 range. This Phillies team is a club that simply hits, and they find ways to break out of slumps by scoring. Any pitcher with a WHIP in that range is a danger to his ball club facing up against the Phillies and their power bats.
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Not a huge fan of Hawksworth at this point, and I definitely think he's the kinda guy that can get the Phillies back on track with a poor performance. At the same time, with Kendrick's success against the Cards, this becomes a very nice dog. 1 unit Phillies!

TOR (-130) vs KAN
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Two streaks heading in different directions, and no reason to see a change! The Jays have won three straight since the break, and the Royals have lost 4 straight. This Toronto team is certainly more productive, offensively, at home in the Rogers Centre, but they're still hovering really close to the 0.500 mark on the road. They certainly don't fall asleep when it comes to traveling.
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On the mound for the Jays is Brett Cecil, who is a legit #2 or #3 starter in just about any major league rotation. The young guy has great stuff, and being a lefty certainly helps. Kansas City is definitely one of the better BA clubs in major league baseball, but their splits show they definitely favor facing righties. Cecil is a solid 5-3 on the road this season, and Kansas City has never seen the guy before. I've talked about this in length in the past, anytime a team has never seen a pitcher, the edge is definitely on the side of the guy toeing the rubber.

On the other side, Kyle Davies has been mediocre through n through, all season. Against the Jays, he's got an ERA in the mid 4's over the last four seasons, and that pretty much epitomizes what kinda pitcher he is. He'll give you 6 innings of 3-5 run ball on a nightly basis, but not much more than that. He's just 1-4 at home this year, with a lack of run support being the storyline to that novel.
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I simply love getting the Jays at an affordable price knowing that the Royals have never seen Cecil before. I really expect to get a good start from him, and I expect Davies to be his normal mediocre self. If that's the case, this is a solid 6-3 win for the Jays. 1 unit Jays!