SPORTS WAGERS
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BALTIMORE +1.70 over Tampa Bay
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The Rays are coming off a series in New York in which they played in front of a packed house in an exciting atmosphere with lots on the line. They won once and in the three games they allowed 19 runs. They also scored 19 but they scored 10 in one game. Now they’ll go from one extreme to the other when they travel to play the AL’s worst team and they could be in for a big letdown here. Wade Davis is 6-9 with an ERA of 4.69. On the road his ERA is 5.50 with a BAA of .297. Davis is inconsistent and unreliable. He can be way off on his control, as we’ve seen on many occasions this year. Over his last four starts he’s walked 12 and struck out 11. In Davis’s first prolonged major-league exposure, he’s now showing signs of laboring badly. It was indeed 22-year-old Chris Tillman called up by the Orioles to start in the place of Kevin Millwood. Tillman promptly spoiled the Texas debut of Cliff Lee by hurling 7 1/3 IP, yielding only two hits and an unearned run while walking one and striking out three. Even if Millwood can return after the All-Star Break, there is plenty of opportunity for Tillman, who was dominant in Triple-A, to stick in the rotation. The situation is favorable for the Orioles and with a sweet tag like this on them, they’re most certainly worth a look. Play: Baltimore +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
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Chicago –1 +1.12 over SEATTLE
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Some of you may not be able to lay one run because it’s not offered at all sportsbooks. With that being the case, you can lay the 11¢ and feel pretty confident about it. The M’s are 1-8 over its last nine home games. Ryan Rowland-Smith has occupied a rotation slot for the bulk of the season with 16 starts among his 19 appearances, despite abysmal stats and skills. The M’s could have called up David Pauley a long time ago but chose not to because Pauley may not be a better option than Smith. Pauley is a journeyman that has never been able to stick for an extended period of time at this level. He’s been given the chance but a BAA in the majors of .353 and an ERA of 7.57 has squashed any hopes. The South Side will turn the ball over to Daniel Hudson. Hudson had a whirlwind season in '09 that saw him pitch on five levels, including 18 innings with Chicago (3.38 ERA). He's a tall and projectable pitcher who possesses an ideal frame and a solid pitch mix. Hudson sits in the low 90s with his fastball and he reaches 95-96 mph on occasion. His secondary offerings include a slider, slow curveball, and changeup. He releases the ball from a 3/4 slot that he sometimes has difficulty repeating. He can leave his breaking balls flat as a result. A deceptive delivery enhances his offerings while his quick arm speed and action provide ample movement to his repertoire. Hudson’s chances of success at this park are much better than the chances of career minor-leaguer, David Pauley. Play: Chicago –1 +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
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Toronto –1½ +1.19 over KANSAS CITY
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The Jays have won three in a row and yesterday they exploded for 15 hits and 10 runs. Yunel Escobar is batting second in the line-up and all he’s done is go 6-13 with five RBI’s and three runs scored in three games. Brett Cecil is rock solid. Cecil is coming off back-to-back gems against the Yanks and Twins in which he allowed just four hits and one run in both games. Cecil has tantalizing numbers that lie under his surface stats that include a BABIP of just .269, IFFB% (infield fly balls) of 11%, and a groundball rate of 45%. Cecil is no flash in the pan either. He’s a long-term asset that is only getting better. Meanwhile, Kyle Davies is coming off a decent stretch of three games in which he gave up eight runs combined in 20.2 frames. That’s nice, it really is, but it can’t and will not last. Davies is a disaster waiting to happen and the chances of him making four adequate starts in a row are low. Davies has a deserving ERA of 5.57, which is right on par with his career ERA of 5.55. The guy is and always will be a stiff with very average stuff. His career ERA and xERA make him virtually unplayable and it’s also worth noting that the Royals were whacked by the O’s over the weekend and has now lost six straight. They’ve allowed five runs or more in all six games. The Jays shot out of the gate after the break with three straight wins and they’re the forgotten team in the AL but they’re not far off (5 games back of the Red Sox). Play: Toronto –1½ +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
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Houston +1.56 over CHICAGO
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Alert!! Do not trust the Cubbies as a big favorite, as you will go broke fast. What we have here is two pitchers heading in opposite directions and it’s not in the Cubs favor. Wandy Rodriguez got off to a horrible start but has turned the corner and could be in for a big second half. Lest we forget that Rodriguez had elite second half numbers a year ago and he’s trending that way again. Over the last month, Rodriguez has an ERA of 3.41 and over his last four games covering 26 innings, he’s allowed five runs. Over that same stretch he’s struck out 25 and walked just six. He also has a solid groundball rate of 47% and is a truly undervalued pitcher. Carlos Silva is having the time of his life this year. Nobody could have predicted a 9-3 record with a 3.45 ERA when you consider a career ERA of 4.62 and a career BAA of .300 in seven previous years and over 1200 career IP. Having said that, Silva has allowed 21 hits over his last 15 frames for a BAA of .350. Yeah, he could have a good game but at this price he’s not worth the risk and at this price the Cubbies are never worth the risk. Overlay. Play: Houston +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
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Philadelphia +1.15 over ST. LOUIS
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Brad Hawksworth is not worthy of being a favorite over anyone and you can double that against this potentially wicked offense. Any success Hawksworth has had is a complete fluke. Last season his strand rate was 83% and that’s a ridiculous number. This year it’s lower but still high at 74%. Hawksworth has allowed 70 hits in 53 frames for a BAA of .353 and 15% of his flyballs allowed have left the yard. Hawksworth has a 1.73 WHIP and everything about this guy screams stay away. Kyle Kendrick is no bargain either but he’s not the one laying juice. Furthermore, some guys just have success against certain teams and there’s really no explanation as to why. It’s just one of those quirky things about this game. Anyway, in his career, Kendrick is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA against the Cards including one game this year in which he went seven full and didn’t allow a single run. Play: Philadelphia +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
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San Francisco Giants at LA Dodgers
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Play on the San Francisco Giants - The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Giants tonight at 10:10 PM ET in the first game of the series. Tonight is all about the pitching matchup. Bumgarner who is on the mound for the Giants has been pitching excellent. He has a 2.14 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in road games. On the other side of tonight’s matchup, McDonald starts for the Dodgers. He is making his season debut tonight and is going to have a rough start. He had a decent season back in 2009 winning three of his four starts but that doesn’t mean he won’t choke in tonight’s matchup like he did in last year’s first game where he gave up five runs in only two innings! Play on the San Francisco Giants
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Play on: San Francisco Giants
John Ryan
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Colorado Rockies vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
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5* graded play on Colorado as they take to the road to face the Marlins set to start at 7:10 EST. Colorado finds themselves on top of the Wild Card standings just percentage points ahead of the Reds, 1/2 game ahead of the Giants. 1.5 ahead of the Dodgers adn Mets, and 2 games ahead of the 2-time NL Champion Phillies. The big question is why is a 15-1 starter with his team leading the Wild Card race just a -145 favorite? The reason is this is a trap. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Marlines will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of just 139-155 for 47% winners, but has made a whopping 74.4 units since 2004. Play against all favorites with a money line of -150 or more averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season and after a win by 2 runs or less. Clearly, units won is far more important than winning percentage in the money line sports of the NHL and MLB. Over 17-years, we have seen close to 82% of our plays as DOGS in these sports and it has served us big time in producing consistent financial returns. This system is analogous to playing Black jack at the casino, having a sub-par night, and stil walking out with a huge gain. Using this system you made $7440 dollars wagering just $100 per hand played and were paid back $165.00 every time you won. Now, add that to the model projections for this game and you have a huge potential upset in the making. Colorado is just 41-90 (-36.1 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span since 1997. Marlins are 21-9 (+13.6 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons; 13-4 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Rockies manager Tracy is just 12-30 (-22.1 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less 3 straight games in all games he has managed since 1997. Jimemez has been touched recently and is attributed to fatigue and scouting report having caught up to him. He also has a bullet on his chest now simply because he is 15-1 and opponents want nothing more than to get to him and defeat him. Marlins bullpen will be an integral factor in this upset win and are pitching very well posting a 1.12 ERA and a 0.958 and converting all 4 of their save opportunities over the past 7 games. Take Florida.
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto fits a nice road favorite system of mine that plays on, you guessed it, certain road favorites off a road favored win by 5 or more runs, that scored 10 or more runs and are now taking on an opponent off a home dog loss and scored 5 or more runs with 10+ hits. This system hits in the high 70 percentile range the past few years. Toronto starter Cecil has a fine 2.92 road era and the Jays have cashed 6 of his 8 road starts. K.Davies of KC has not fared as well. Davies has an elevated 5.35 home era and his era is also right around 5 in 3 starts vs Toronto. The Blue Jays have cashed 14 of 20 times as a road favorite in this range and the Royals are 0-4 in nthe second half vs teams who are over .500. Look for Toronto to deal the Royals their 7th straight loss tonight.
Info Plays
3* on Boston Red Sox +102
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Reasons the Red Sox win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (OAKLAND) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. This is a 49-10 ML System hitting 83.1% since 1997.
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2.) Daisuke Matsuzaka. The righty is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 5 road starts this season. Matsuzaka is 11-2 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 54-16 after playing 4 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 years. Bet the Red Sox on the road.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Boston Red Sox +104
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I know the Red Sox are banged up, but they are still showing good value at this price with Matsuzaka on the bump, especially when you consider that they are 21-8 in his last 29 road starts and 12-4 in his last 16 starts vs. the American League West. It is also worth noting that the Red Sox are 4-1 in Matsuzaka's last 5 starts vs. the Athletics. The A's are playing well, but we can't overlook the fact that they are just 3-12 in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record 1-6 in Sheets' last 7 starts vs. the American League East. Bet Boston.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -119
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No question the Tigers come into this series with Texas highly motivated after getting swept in 4 games by the lowly Cleveland Indians last series. Detroit returns home where they have been one of the best home teams in the business, going 32-13 while hitting .286 and scoring 5.1 RPG. Starter Jeremy Bonderman has pitched his best at home this year as well, going 3-3 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 8 home starts.
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Tigers hitters are licking their chops at the chance to face Scott Feldman, who is 5-8 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.597 WHIP this season. Feldman is 3-5 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 8 road starts this year as well. This is also one team that Feldman does not enjoy facing. Feldman is 0-2 with a 9.75 ERA and 2.750 WHIP in 3 career starts vs. Detroit, allowing 17 runs, 13 earned, along with 33 base runners in 12 innings. That's an average of nearly 3 base runners per innings. Detroit is 16-3 against the money line in home games off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take the Tigers Monday.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -159
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The Cubs are coming off an impressive series win over the Phillies and the winning will continue tonight against Houston. Silva is having a strong season for the Cubs and it is certainly worth noting that he is 9-1 on the money line vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. Rodriguez takes the hill for the Astros and it is worth noting that he is 1-13 on the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. Take the Cubs at home tonight.
Dan Bebe
LOS (-108) vs SFG
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I happen to think that, like so many other teams that struggle on the road, the Dodgers' perennial issues in St. Louis are creating a ridiculously affordable price against an NL West opponent that they have just owned this year.
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I know the Dodgers were slumping, and are a tiny bit banged up, but all of that is being blown out of proportion by an ugly series with the Cards. Everyone is going to think the Dodgers' late loss yesterday is going to send them on a tailspin, but in baseball it often works the other way. The Dodgers are the kind of team, with the kind of veteran leadership that can put those sorts of games behind them and go back to work on the teams they need to beat.
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James McDonald has a nice history against the Giants, albeit a short one, and I still have high hopes for this kid despite being bounced back and forth between starter and reliever, and between the Majors and Triple-A. He should be good for 5-6 innings of decent pitching. Madison Bumgarner will put up a nice start, too, make no mistake, and this isn't the type of game that the Dodgers are just going to run away in, but LA wins those close ones with NL West rivals this year, and they will regain confidence playing a very beatable team in a city without humidity.
Hollywood Sports
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New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
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Ian Kennedy represents the Diamondbacks on the mound with his 4-7 record that accompanies his 4.12 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. But Kennedy has been much better at home this season as evidenced by his 3.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .212 opponent's batting average home split stat stats. He faces off against Mike Pelfrey who sports a 10-4 record with a 3.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. But Pelfrey has really struggled of late as he possesses a 10.15 ERA and whopping 3.08 WHIP over his last three starts. Pelfrey also has not been nearly as effective on the road given his 4.17 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .314 opponent's batting average when away from Citi Field. Pelfrey had his Friday start pushed back after straining his neck sleeping on the plane which just places another question mark regarding his potential effectiveness going forward.
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Additionally, there is an underlying sabermetric statistic we find intriguing that favors Mazzaro over Bannister in this contest: Batting Average for line-drive Balls put Into Play (LD BABIP). Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The MLB average for line-drives that go for base hits is typically in the .715-.730 range. Kennedy has a low .683 LD BABIP this season which is encouraging regarding his overall efforts this season. Comparatively, Pelfrey sports a .716 LD BABIP which is just below the league average but not nearly as impressive as Kennedy's number.The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starters Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like LD BABIP, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future.
Black Widow
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1* on Chicago White Sox -113
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The White Sox blew a 3-run lead in the 9th yesterday to lose to the TWins 6-7, and lost the series 1-3. A series with the Mariners starting Monday will get Chicago right back on the winning track. Seattle is 2-9 in their last 11 games overall, and 1-7 in their last 8 home games. The White Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Chicago is 26-8 in their last 34 games overall. Take the White Sox on the Money Line.