Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday July, 2

Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

When the A's host the Red Sox in the opener of this three-game series Monday night, Oakland will send Jarrod Parker to the mound against Daiskue Matsusaka knowing Parker owns a sterling 1.58 ERA, and a splendid 1.08 WHIP, at home this season. With the Red Sox just 1-4 in Matsusaka's last five road starts, and the Athletics 10-4 the last 14 games as a host in this series, look for the A's to improve on those numbers here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.

Scott Spreitzer

Reds at Dodgers
Play: Over

I released the Dodgers on these pages yesterday and we cashed in an 8-3 L.A. win. While Los Angeles has had a rough time at the plate since the Matt Kemp injury, I believe they're getting "just what the doctor ordered" for the second straight night. Homer Bailey is one of the few pitchers who has not enjoyed Chavez Ravine, having been tagged with a 6.52 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and .308 BAA in two starts. His overall numbers aren't too hot against the Dodgers either, including a 1.52 WHIP. Bailey has allowed a whopping 18 earned runs and 44 base runners in his last five starts overall, spanning 27 innings, for a 6.00 ERA & 1.63 WHIP. He's been somewhat of a slump-buster for teams like the Dodgers. The Reds are on a 16-3 Over run against teams with an OPS of .325 or lower, averaging a total of 11.3 rpg, combined. Chad Billingsley counters for the home team tonight. The righty owns an ERA of nearly 5.00 in nine starts against the Reds and the last four times he has faced Cinci, the teams combined for 9, 15, 13, and 20 runs, an average of 14.3 rpg...all four went Over the posted total. With Billingsley's current form, (last 3 starts), I believe Cincinnati will score their share of runs again. The Dodgers are 13-3-2 to the Over when Billingsley toes the home rubber and 7-0-1 to the Over when the opponent owns a winning record. Meanwhile, the Reds are 12-3-1 to the Over when Bailey starts on four days rest and 5-0 when he's installed as a road favorite. I'm playing the Over between the Reds & Dodgers on Monday.

Matt Fargo

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is coming off a rough series against the Tigers where it lost three of four and going back it is 1-6 over its last seven games. The Rays have fallen seven and a half games behind the Yankees in the American League East so stating that this is an important series would be an understatement. The good news is that the Rays are just a game and a half out of the two Wild Card spots and facing the Yankees have not been an issue of late as they have won seven straight meetings at home. New York is hot but coming into this game as an underdog is telling us something. The Yankees are coming off a series split with the White Sox thanks to winning the final two games over the weekend and going back to late May, they are 27-9 over their last 36 games. While the offense gets most of the pub, the pitching has been the catalyst over this stretch and short-term, the starters have a 2.80 ERA over their last 10 games. The Yankees are 0-4 in their last four games as a road underdog between +110 and +150. Freddy Garcia is back in the rotation as he is taking the spot of the injured C.C. Sabathia and he is the reason the Yankees are dogged here. He made four starts in April and it was a disaster as he posted a 12.51 ERA by allowing 22 runs in 31 innings. He got shipped to the bullpen where he was rarely used as he made only 10 relief appearances in two month so he is far from sharp. He is going to be on a limited pitch count so it will be up to the Rays to get after him early and often. Matt Moore gets the call for Tampa Bay and it has been a season of ups and downs. He lasted 7.1 innings last time out but gave up four runs and that was just the second time over his last nine starts that he has allowed more than three runs. He has pitched well at home with a 3.78 ERA in nine starts with five of those resulting in quality outings. He has faced the Yankees only once and while it was last year and he went just five innings, he allowed no runs while striking out 11 hitters.

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Arizona is an amazing 25-4 as a favorite from -140 or higher in the first game of a home stand including 3-0 this season. They fit a solid system that has cashed 11 of 13 times that pertains to home favorites of -140 or more off a 1 run road dog loss, vs an opponent off a road dog win that left 5 or more men on base. Arizona is too high a favorite to be unit rated but they are a nice free play when we consider they average over 5 runs per game at home and have won 14 of the last 18 here vs a San Diego team that is 1-7 this season off back to back wins and 5-13 as a road dog from +125 to +150. C. Richard has lost 7 of 9 on the road for the Padres with a 4.45 era and Cahill has been solid vs the Padres this season allowing just 1 run in 15 innings. Look for Arizona to take the opener.

David Chan

Astros @ Pirates
PICK: Under

The Astros' James Lyles (2-4, 4.59 ERA) is set to square off against the Pirates' James McDonald (7-3, 2.44 ERA) on the mound tonight.

Lyles gave up one run off six hits over 6 1/3's frames in his team's 5-3 win over the Padres on Tuesday; the big right-hander finished with four strikeouts to go along with four free passes.

McDonald is coming off a bit of a shaky start, giving up four runs over 5 2/3's frames of work, but was fortunate to still pick up the win over the Phillies last Wednesday. McDonald continues to shine this season, as his ERA and WHIP are both in the top 10 in the entire league. He's been particularly effective at home this year, going 3-1 with a minuscule 1.63 ERA.

Lyles turned a big corner last time out, and now has something concrete to build off moving forward. McDonald has a big opportunity to pad his stats before the break against the soft-hitting Astros.

Expect these solid starters to duel each other into the later frames, and for this one to sneak below the posted number!

Ben Burns

Red Sox @ Athletics
PICK: Under 7.5

Two of three 2012 meetings between Boston and Oakland have fallen below the total. This figures to be another low-scoring affair.

Parker has allowed one earned run or less in three straight starts and six of his last seven. His last start resulted in a 2-1 victory. In seven home starts, six with Oakland, he's NEVER allowed more than two earned runs.

In this season's six home starts, Parker has a superb 1.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting only .196 against him here.

Matsuzaka is off his best start since returning from Tommy John surgery. He allowed just a single run through 5 2/3 innings. He had five Ks with just one walk. That 5-1 victory brought the UNDER to 3-0-1 the last four times that Dice-K has taken the mound.

Note that Matsuzaka is also 4-1 with a very solid 3.69 ERA and 1.15 in seven career starts vs. Oakland. He's allowed two earned runs or less in four of five career starts at Oakland, most recently a 2-1 Boston win in July of 2010. Consider the Under.

Jesse Schule

Reds @ Dodgers
PICK: Over 7

Stop the presses! The Dodgers scored a run, in fact they scored eight of them, in an 8-3 win over Cincinnati last night. That is more than they have scored in their previous eight games combined. After being shutout in five of their last six games, finally they have something to be positive about.

They have a good chance to keep on rolling tonight, facing Homer Bailey who has struggled for the Reds. Bailey (5-6, 4.42 ERA) got rocked by the Brewers, giving up five runs on seven hits in just four innings, losing 8-4 in his last start. Prior to that he allowed five runs on eight hit in five innings against the Twins. He has lost four of his last five starts, and he has allowed home runs in four of the five. The way he has been pitching lately, even the Dodgers have a chance at putting runs on the board against him.

The Dodgers will start their own struggling pitcher, Chad Billingsley has lost three straight starts. Billingsley (4-7, 4.18 ERA) has allowed a staggering 27 hits in 17 innings over those last three starts. In two starts against the Reds last year, Billingsley got rocked for 11 runs on 17 hits, as well as walking seven.

With two struggling pitchers on the mound, Joey Votto back in the Reds lineup, and the Dodgers coming off their biggest offensive output in over a week, I like the OVER!

Dave Cokin

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Jason Hammel didn't have it in his last start, but he's having a great season. Hammel should shut down the punchless Mariners and I like the Orioles to have their way with Iwakuma. I'll back the Orioles here.

Jim Feist

Astros vs Pirates
Pick: Under

A pair of weak offensive teams meet, while the Pirates have outstanding pitching. Houston goes with Jordan Lyles, who has a 3.06 ERA his last three starts. The under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 games as an underdog and 8-2-1 under the total in their last 11 overall. They face a Pirates team that is 28th in runs scored, and 30th in on-base percentage. Starter James McDonald (7-3, 2.44 ERA) doesn't walk anyone and has a strong 86-26 strikeout to walk ratio, plus a 1.13 ERA against the Astros this season. Play the Pirates/Astros under the total.

Tony George

LA Angels -143

OFFENSE is key in bases along with pitching and it can hide some flaws in your starting rotation and bullpen if you can get runners on base and score. The Angels are on FIRE at the plate hitting .328 as a TEAM their last 10 games, that is unreal! I like them against the Indians today with this offense in sync behind a solid starter. They also are killing it on the road going 15-3 their last 18 on the road, many of them as a favorite! Again a hell of a record! The also have Weaver on the hill, one of their aces! Lay the wood.

Wunderdog

Miami at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -160

Miami was hoping to get a boost in their rotation signing Carlos Zabrano, but the former Cub malcontent has led them to just a 6-9 record in his 15 starts. His last four starts have all resulted in losses. Zack Geinke has had an impressive first. The Marlins have been a brutal 17-43 as a dog from +110 to +150 in their last 60 tries, while the Brewers have been kings of MLB as a home favorite of -151 to -200 at 42-9 in their last 51. The Brewers have also been flawless with Greinke on the mound at home facing a team with a losing record, at 14-0. Play on Milwaukee.

Bryan Power

Miami @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers

It seems as if there hasn't been a more sound investement over the last two seasons than taking Zach Grienke at Miller Park. Since coming over to Milwaukee at the start of last season, Grienke has gone a phenomenal 15-0 in his first 23 home starts with the team a ridiculous 22-1 overall. In fact, the Brewers are a perfect 22-0 when favored in a Grienke home start, including 14-0 when favored by -150 or more on the money line. Therefore, it certainly seems reasonable to go with him again tonight as he faces a Marlins team that has lost eight straight times in Milwaukee and is coming off a horrendous June overall.

Lately, it has not mattered where Greinke's pitched, he's been excellent. His ERA over his last six starts is 1.67 and five of those have come on the road. Here at home, his ERA is 1.08 for the year (six starts). Not surprisingly, in his last home start, Greinke didn't allow a single run over seven innings, holding the Cubs to only two hits while striking out 12.

I just don't see any reason why you should go against Grienke here. The Marlins have lost four straight road games overall and prior to winning their last four games (all at home), they'd dropped 17 of 20 games.

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
PICK: Los Angeles Angels -130

The Angels were able to salvage a 2-2 split with a 10-6 win in game 4 of their series against the Blue Jays. Los Angeles continues to play at a very high level. They are 8-3 over their last 11 games, and I look for them to continue their strong play with another win on Monday.

Any time you can get an ace like Jered Weaver at less than -150, you are making a pretty strong bet. Adding even more value to this play is the fact that Weaver has allowed just 1 earned run in 12 and 2/3 innings of work since returning from the DL. In his last two trips to Cleveland, he has allowed just one earned run in 13 innings.

The Indians will counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has been able to get back some of his old form in 2012. However, Jimenez is just 7-6 with a 4.69 ERA. The Indians are just 2-5 in Jimenez's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.

Los Angeles is 11-2 in their last 13 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 15-5 in their last 20 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and 8-0 in Weavers last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Jeff Alexander

Atlanta Braves -1.5 +110

Chicago's Samardzija is struggling. The Cubs have lost each of his last 5 starts, and he has given up 8, 5 and 9 runs in 3 of his last 4. They have lost his last 2 starts by scores of 6-1 and 17-1. Atlanta's Hanson, meanwhile, is rolling. The Braves have won each of his last 5 starts, and the last 4 wins have all come by at least 2 runs. Also, the Cubs are a terrible 10-29 on the road this season. We'll take Atlanta on the run line.