Dave Price
Oakland A's -105
The Red Sox have won 11 of their last 15 overall but are just 4-10 in their last 14 in Oakland. They find themselves at a disadvantage tonight as they must face the red-hot Jarrod Parker. He has given up 1 earned run or none in 6 of his last 7 starts while going at least 6 innings in each of those 6 outings. Daisuke Matsuzaka is coming off a pretty good outing but I'm not sold. Dating back to last season, he has given up 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Red Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 series openers. Take the A's.
Jimmy Boyd
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +111
The Cards are showing value on the run line at this price with Lohse on the hill against a Colorado club that has dropped 18 of its last 24 games. Lohse is 7-2 with an ERA of 2.82 in 16 starts. The Cardinals have won each of his last 3 starts against the Rockies, during which he has held them to a total of 3 earned runs in 19 1-3 innings. The Red Birds are 14-2 since the beginning of last season in Lohse's starts versus teams that are outscored by their opponents by an average of 0.5 runs or more on the season. They have won these games by an average score of 5.3 to 2.8. Colorado's Outman doesn't inspire the same confidence as he is 0-2 with a 9.26 ERA in 6 starts. St. Louis has won 6 of its last 7 at home against the Rockies with those 6 wins coming by an average of 3.8 runs. Take the Cards on the run line.
Spartan
Oakland A's -105
We cashed with the Red Sox on sunday but I'm going against them here as they open a series in Oakland against the scrappy A's. Oakland starter Jarrod Parker has been nails of late surrendering only nine earned runs over the last forty six frames worked and a sparkling 1.76 era during that streak. To me it's really a shame this Oakland club is in the tough division they are, I suspect if they were switched out the the NL west they would be right in the thick of things. They are not household names but this club has starting pitching in spades my friends. Matsuzaka is frankly a guy I rarely back and no way in hell I am here. Price is right guys. Take Oakland is get their home stand off on a winning note.
Dave Essler
Royals / Blue Jays Over 9.5
This is also one of my Premium plays, as was the free Miami winner yesterday. Here we've got a big perception that the Royals can't hit LHP, and I suppose over the course of time they're right. However, Moustakas and Hosmer have hit Romero well, albeit in limited exposure. Butlers' had some success as well, so we certainly do expect Kansas City to score here. And Teaford is just not normally a starter, so we fully expect to see the Royals bullpen, which was brutalized all weekend by the Twins. In fact, if Romero isn't sharp the Jays pen has very little left after their series with the Angels, so, in the end there are just way too many ways this hits ten runs, and only a Romero gem and the Royals throwing up the surrender flag before the Jays get to ten themselves. Those situations always qualify for bet.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Cincinnati/ Dodgers Over 7: Google News Play. Last night the Dodgers finally put up some runs as they scored 8 vs the Mets on 7 hits. They were aided by 3 Met errors, but their bats still came through when needed. Last night the Dodgers faced Dillon Gee, who is a mediocre at best starter and tonight they get to face another average starter. Homer Bailey has pitched well on the road, with a 3.09 ERA, but his road starts have averaged 8.3 rpg. He has struggled at night (4.67 ERA) and he has a 4.67 ERA in his last 3 starts overall, with a 1.50 WHIP in those starts, plus he has a 6.51 EA in 2 career starts at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers do score just 3.98 rpg at home, but they hit .265 at home, including .267 vs righties. Really just looking for just 3 runs form LA in this one Cause I feel the Reds should easily get at least 3 runs of their own and at worst that gives us a push. The Reds average just 3.9 rpg on the road, but will be taking on a pitcher that has struggled of late, especially at home. Chad Billingsley has a 4.30 ERA at home, with his home starts averaging 7.9 rpg and the OVER going 6-1. Chad has allowed 4 ER's in each of his last 2 home starts, while his ERA over his last 5 home starts is 5.66. Chad has also struggled with the Reds, posting an 8.74 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. In those starts he allowed 38 hits and 12 walks in just 22.2 innings of work. He really comes in struggling, with a 6.88 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Dodgers can't hit good pitching right now, but they can hit average pitching and for the 2nd night in a row their offense should put some runs on the board. While the Reds should get their fair share, even if Votto and Rolen are out. At least 9 runs in this one.
Seattle/ Baltimore Under 7: The4 Dodgers aren't the only team that is having problems scoring right now. The Seattle Mariners are right behind them. Seattle has scored 1 run or less in 6 of their last 8 games, while averaging just 1.1 rpg over that span. At home the Mariners are the worst scoring team in the league at 2.76 rpg and are off a 4 game series vs Boston, in which they put up just 5 runs in the 4 games. It might not get any easier for them tonight as they face Jason Hammell. Jason was rocked in his last start, but despite allowing 8 ER's to the Angels in that start he still has a 3.54 and an ).93 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Jason has a 3.09 ERA on the road and 1.50 ER in 2 career starts vs the Mariners. I really look for him to bounce back from his worst outing of the year. Offensively the O's have not been that great of last as they have scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 9 games, while averaging just 3 rpg over that span. Those games were at home and now they head to the road and a bigger park, so scoring will not come easier for them here. Tonight they face Hisashi Iwakume, who had a 2.75 ERA in 113 starts in Japan the last 4 years. He has a 4.75 ERA in 30.1 innings out of the pen this year, but a 2.20 ERA in 16.1 innings from the pen at home. He also has the advantage of never having faced the O's. No more than 5 runs have been scored in Seattle's current home stand (7 games) and just 6.1 rpg have been scored here all year. With these struggling offenses I just don't see those numbers improving. 5 Runs at best here.
MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+135) over Miami: Zack Greinke. Enough said. Oh well I guess I will elaborate. Zack has been awesome at home as a member of the Brewers as he is 15-0 with a 2.57 ERA in 23 starts here, while the Brewers are 22-1 in those starts. Pretty amazing. This year he is 4-0 with a skinny 1.08 ERA at home, and the Brewers have gone 6-1 in his home starts and have outscored their opponents by 4.5 rpg in those starts. Zack has 52 K's and just 8 walks in 42.1 innings of work at home this year. Pretty dominant. Carlos Zambrano has not been dominant of late, as he comes in with an 0-3 mark, a 7.88 ERA and a 2.38 WHIP in his last 4 starts. Walks have been a problem for him as he has allowed 18 free passes in his last 16 innings of work. Miami has been outscored by 6 rpg in his last 4 starts. Offensively the Marlins do not score or hit will on the road as their average of 3.35 rpg and BA of .217 away from home can attest. The Brewers are do not have problems at the plate at home as they average 5.23 rpg and hit .253 at Miller park on the year. Zack has faced the Fish three times in his career and all three were won by the Brewers by 2 runs or more. Milwaukee is 10-1 the last 11 in the series and 5-1 the last 6 here, with all five of the home wins being by 2 runs or more. Brewers by at least 4 in this one.
New York Yanks +124 over TAMPA BAY: Freddy Garcia has struggled in his 4 starts with the Yanks (12.50 ERA), but this is one team he has done well against. Garcia is 9-2 with a 3.33 ERA in 16 career starts vs the Rays, including going 5-2 with a 3.65 ERA in 9 starts at the Trop. He is facing a Rays team that is struggling offensively of late, averaging just 2.4 rpg in their last 7 games. The Rays have a team ERA of 3.67 (4th), but of late that pitching has suffered as they have allowed 5.6 rpg in their last 7 games. Not good when your about to face a very good hitting Yanks team. Matt Moore had a nice June (3-0 with a 3.16 ERA), but they Yanks have cranked out 5.7 rpg vs lefties on the year, so he may be in for a long night. The Yanks were swept here earlier in the year, but these are two different teams that are headed in opposite directions and New York should get a measure of revenge with a solid win in the opener of this 3 game set.
MLBPredictions
St Louis Cardinals -1.5 +110
Both of these teams are coming off of a series loss over the weekend, with the Rockies winning on Friday but dropping their last two against San Diego and the Cardinals winning yesterday to avoid the sweep against the Pirates. The Rockies haven't won a series in almost a month, dropping to 30-48 on the season and 12-23 on the road. The Cardinals sit 3rd in the NL Central with a 41-38 record and 18-18 home record. Southpaw Josh Outman will be on the mound for Colorado. He is 0-3 on the season with a 9.32 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .316 opponents batting average. As a starter he is 0-2 over 6 starts with a 9.26 ERA, and he has allowed 4 or more earned runs in his last 5 starts. On the road his ERA is 12.15 over 7 appearances (3 starts). The Cardinals will send Kyle Lohse to the hill who is 7-2 on the season with a 2.82 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .245 opponents batting average. His last start he went 7.1 innings giving up 4 hits and 2 earned runs against. Note that the Rockies are 6-18 in their last 24 games overall, 2-6 in their last 8 road games, and 10-25 in their last 35 games following a loss. They are just 17-40 in their last 57 vs a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games as a favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 vs a lefty starter, and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win. They are also 62-25 in their last 87 home games vs a team with a road winning % less than .400. The Cardinals are 8-2 in Lohse's last 10 starts as a home favorite, and 13-6 in his last 19 starts as a favorite overall. They haven't met this year yet, but the Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings vs the Rockies, and 6-1 in their last 7 at home vs Colorado. St Louis should be able to score some runs tonight vs Outman, while Lohse should be able to keep the Rockies in check. Take the Cardinals by two.
San Diego Padres +143
Padres / Diamondbacks Under 9
San Diego has won 2 straight over the weekend, and 3 of their last 4 games. The Diamondbacks are returning home after going 2-4 in their 6 game road trip. The Padres are 30-50 on the season and are last in the NL West, while the D'backs are 39-39 and 3rd in the division. These two teams have met 6 times this season (all in San Diego) with Arizona coming on top 4 of the 6 games. Clayton Richard will take the mound for San Diego and he has been solid lately. Richard is 5-8 on the year with a 3.77 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .250 opponents batting average. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed just 4 earned runs against. On June 1st Richard went 6.2 innings against the Diamondbacks giving up 7 hits but just 1 earned run in an eventual San Diego 7-1 victory. Trevor Cahill will go for Arizona, and he is 6-6 on the year with a 3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .244 opponents batting average. After a great start to June, Cahill allowed 10 earned runs (12 total) over 11 innings of work in his last two starts. He has faced the Padres twice this season and has a 0.60 ERA against them, which includes a complete game 6 hit shutout. The Diamondbacks struggled to score runs on their 6 game road trip, as they score more than 4 runs just once. The UNDER is 5-1 in these two teams 6 meetings this year, including an UNDER both times Cahill took the mound. The UNDER is 13-3 in their last 16 meetings overall, and 6-2 in their last 8 meetings in Arizona. I like the UNDER tonight with a high total with the two solid pitchers on the mound, and with Cahill having a little but of struggles lately and Clayton Richard pitching good over his last 3 I think the Padres can win a tight low scoring game tonight. Take the UNDER and our underdog play on the Padres.