SPORTS ADVISORS
Chicago Cubs (47-43) at Philadelphia (51-38)
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The surging Phillies will try to make it nine straight wins when they send Rodrigo Lopez (1-0, 3.18 ERA) to the mound at Citizen’s Bank Park to face Cubs lefty Ted Lilly (9-6, 3.18) in the opener of a three-game set.
Chicago just wrapped up a four-game sweep of the Nationals in Washington with Sunday’s 11-3 victory, outscoring the lowly Nationals 26-11 in the four games. The Cubs are on runs of 6-1 overall and 5-1 in series openers, however they are just 1-4 in their last five on the road against winning teams.
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Philadelphia ran its winning streak to eight with Sunday’s 5-0 win at the Marlins. In addition to their ongoing streak, the Phillies are on a plethora of positive runs, including 12-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 6-0 against right-handed starters, 20-7 on Mondays and 35-16 against the N.L. Central. They have also taken six of the last eight meetings with the Cubs in Philadelphia.
Lilly was superb in his final two starts before the All-Star break, allowing a combined three runs over 14 1/3 innings in wins over the Brewers and Cardinals. The Cubs are 7-2 in his last nine starts overall, and he’s allowed three runs or less in eight of those nine games. He is just 3-5 with a 4.66 ERA in nine road starts and 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA in four career starts against the Phillies.
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Lopez is making his third start with Philadelphia, having allowed four runs in 11 1/3 innings in home wins over the Mets (7-2) and Reds (3-2). He hasn’t faced the Cubs since 2007 when he was with Colorado and allowed eight runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-5 loss.
Chicago carries “under” streaks of 7-4 overall, 21-8 on the road, 7-1 against the N.L. East, 15-7-1 in series openers and 4-1 on Mondays. For the Phillies, the “under” is on streaks of 10-4 overall, 8-3 at home, 29-12-2 against the N.L. Central, 4-1-1 in series openers and 4-1-1 as a ‘dog. Finally, the under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in this rivalry.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and UNDER
Boston (55-36) at Texas (49-41)
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The Red Sox send veteran right-hander John Smoltz (1-2, 5.40 ERA) to the hill at Rangers Ballpark, while Texas counters with fellow veteran righty Kevin Millwood (8-7, 3.46).
Boston dropped the final two games of a three-game set in Toronto over the weekend, including Sunday’s 3-1 loss as it was shut down by Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. The Red Sox had won five of six going into the All-Star break, and they are on further runs of 13-6 on the road, 11-5 against winning teams, 30-14 in series openers and 5-1 on Mondays.
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Texas snapped a four-game losing streak with a 5-3, 12-inning win over the Twins on Sunday with Ian Kinsler delivering two homers, including the 12-inning, two-run walk-off shot. The Rangers are 2-6 in their last eight games, have lost four of five series openers and four straight Monday contests, but they are on a 4-0 roll against the A.L. East.
The Red Sox have owned the rivalry with the Rangers, winning 16 of the last 21 overall and six of the last seven in Texas. However, last month, Texas went to Fenway Park and took two of three.
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Smoltz is making just his fifth start for Boston. He looked good back on July 11 when he held the Royals to one run on four hits in five innings of a 15-9 home win, striking out seven and walking just one. It was the first time in four tries that the Red Sox won a game started by Smoltz.
Millwood has been money at home this year, going 6-1 with a 2.49 ERA at the Ballpark. However, he did get roughed up in his three starts before the break, giving up 17 runs in 17 1/3 innings as the Rangers went 1-2. On the bright side, with Millwood on the hill, Texas is on runs of 20-7 at home, 11-5 against the A.L. East, 7-1 in series openers and 4-0 at home against winning teams.
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One of Millwood’s better starts this season came at Fenway Park on June 5 when he held the Red Sox to one unearned run on seven hits over seven innings of a 5-1 Texas win, improving to 5-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 13 lifetime outings against Boston.
Boston is on several “under” streaks, including 36-17-4 overall, 7-2 on the road, 5-1 on the road against right-handed starters, 10-2-1 against the A.L. West and 32-15-5 on Mondays. With Millwood pitching, Texas has stayed below the number in 20 of 28 overall, 11 of 15 at home and 10 of 15 on Mondays. As a team, the Rangers are on “under” runs of 39-15-1 overall, 23-6-1 at home, 8-1 against the A.L. East, 4-1 in series openers and 26-11-1 against right-handed starters.
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Finally, the last four Texas-Boston clashes have stayed under the total.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia
The Phillies look to build on their 10-1 record in their last 11 games when the run total is between 9 and 10 1/2. Philadelphia is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115).
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Game 901-902: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 14.031; Washington (Martin) 13.755
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Under
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Burns) 13.924; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.544
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Under
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Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 15.948; Philadelphia (Lopez) 16.843
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under
Game 907-908: San Francisco at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.564; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.665
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); Under
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Game 909-910: St. Louis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 16.684; Houston (Moehler) 15.551
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 911-912: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 15.416; Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.926
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-140); Under
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Game 913-914: Florida at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Vandenhurk) 15.156; San Diego (Stauffer) 14.051
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 915-916: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Owings) 14.749; LA Dodgers (Schmidt) 14.324
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+150); Under
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Game 917-918: Baltimore at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 15.683; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.711
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Under
Game 919-920: Boston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Smoltz) 15.344; Texas (Millwood) 16.465
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100); Under
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Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 14.888; White Sox (Floyd) 14.277
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Over
Game 923-924: LA Angels at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (O'Sullivan) 15.853; Kansas City (Ponson) 14.873
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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Game 925-926: Minnesota at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.047; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.749
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Under
Scott Spreitzer
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Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
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I'm playing the Phillies on Monday night. The Cubs have struggled in tonight's situation and I don't see things changing much in this matchup. The "northsiders" have averaged just 3.9 rpg in 26 road games against righthanders. They'll face Rodrigo Lopez, who has looked quite strong in his first two starts of the season. He comes in with a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The Cubs will counter with Ted Lilly who starts after suffering knee inflammation the last few days. The knee trouble makes a deep run tough already, but now he faces a team that's had his "number" as of late. The Phillies have rocked Lilly for a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts against them. Both teams are on nice win streaks, but Chicago's came at the hands of the lowly Nationals. Look for the Phillies to take game-one of this important series on Monday night.
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Play on: Philadelphia
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
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Pittsburgh right-handed starter Ross Ohlendorf has gone UNDER the total in 12 of his 17 starts, including seven of nine at home this season. The Pirates have stayed UNDER in 21 of 29 home night games and 19 of 27 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10. Combine all this with the Pirates offense being one of the worst in baseball averaging 4.2 runs per game. Go with the UNDER.
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Play on: UNDER
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
294 - 194 run 60 % 42-23 run here 😮
Dodgers MONDAY
==============================
Undefeated77's TRENDS SAY free sports picks:
now 4 - 1 = 80% 😮
Today's pick = boston/texas UNDER +100 (good value)
8)
Matt Fargo
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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The Dodgers used solid pitching to take the final two games of their series with Houston to gain the four-game split. I do not think the same type of pitching will be on display tonight as the fifth spot in the rotation, which has been dicey all season, could be even more fragile. The Reds continue to hand around in their division following a weekend split as well. This is a big trip for Cincinnati who has the Cubs following this three-game set so this could be the make or break week. Los Angeles will be bringing out veteran Jason Schmidt who has not pitched in the Majors in over two years because of several injuries and setbacks. He has lost a lot of velocity on the pitches and his fastball is what made him so successful in the past. Schmidt has made eight rehab appearances in the minors, going a combined 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA in stops at Class A and Triple-A, and while those numbers are solid, this is a whole new ballgame. Cincinnati counters with Micah Owings who has been consistently inconsistent this season. He is coming off his worst start of the season before the break where he allowed seven runs in just 4.1 innings against the Phillies. The time off should have helped and the good news is that he rarely has put back-to-back bad performances together. In his last three starts where he allowed five runs or more, he followed those up with solid outings of giving up three runs or less in each and posting a combined 3.31 ERA. He has fared well against the Dodgers in the past while in Arizona as he has a 3.71 ERA in three career starts. The Reds fall into a solid contrarian underdog situation. Play on National League teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.55 to 1.65 on the season and is coming off a game where he allowed seven runs or more. This situation is 112-73 (60.5 percent) since 1997. The Dodgers are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
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3* Cincinnati Reds
Jeff Hochman
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Eric Milton was lost for the season so it's showtime for Jason Schmidt. It will be Schmidt's first Major League outing since June 16, 2007. Two shoulder surgeries and two years of rehab later, Schmidt returns to the mound as the Dodgers need a fifth starter and are curious to see if Schmidt has anything left. He's made five consecutive starts on regular rest in the Minor Leagues, the longest he's gone without interruption. His fastball is reaching 91 MPH and will be on a pitch count around 100. The Dodgers have a great bullpen waiting in the wings. The Reds are batting just .233 vs. righties on the road this season. The Dodgers are 21-6 in their last 27 head-to-head meetings with the Reds. The Dodgers know M. Owings from his D-Backs days. Manny goes deep tonight! Dodgers win 6-3.
Big AL
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Pirate righthander and currently #4 starter Ross Ohlendorf, is no doubt glad to be opening up his second half with a start at home in PNC Park. Ohlendorf's last two starts before the break were on the road at Florida and Philly and the 26-year-old did not pitch well in either of those. But in his last three starts in front of the home faithful (albeit certainly not that many home faithful in Pittsburgh these days), Ohlendorf is 2-0 and has only surrendered three earned runs in 20 innings. And more importantly, the Pirates are 4-0 in Ohlendorf's last four home starts. Journeyman righthanded reliever-turned-starter Mike Burns will get another start for Milwaukee as Dave Bush continues to recover from a triceps injury that landed him on the DL almost a month ago. Burns seems to be alternating good and bad starts, and after beating the Dodgers with five strong innings in his last start, Burns would appear to be in line for another sub-par effort tonight. Brewers All-Star outfielder Ryan Braun was hit on the hand by a pitch on Friday night and is having trouble gripping the bat and although he played on Sunday, he was not effective in an 0-for-4 effort at the plate. Despite an overall record well under .500, the Pirates have been very tough at home this season (24-18). Take Pittsburgh.
John Ryan
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San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta as they host SF set to start at 7:10 EST. SF is not in a good spot for this game noting that they are just 2-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher with poor control walking more than 2.75 batters/start this season. Sanchez has not pitched well sporting a 5.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and also has posted a 6.62 ERA in road starts. Tommy Hanson has started 7 games and has been quite impressive in early all of them. He yielded 4 ER in 5 IP at Colorado, but many pitchers have their troubles in the thin air. Moreover, the SF team has never faced him and this is a significant advantage for Hanson. A player can get all of the scouting reports possible and that info is great to have, but it is a totally different story when you face that pitcher in a live situation. Atlanta skipper COX is a solid 106-44 (+27.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse as the manager of the Braves.
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New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington as the host the Mets set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 48-14 making 32.1 units since 2003. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games and with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts. Washington is a perfect 7-0 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Mets are just 9-20 (-10.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
Cajun Sports
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies return home off a four-game road trip where took three out of four games from the Padres with a 6 to 1 win on Sunday to take the series. They will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-game series in the Mile High City with the first game set for Monday night and the first pitch scheduled for 8:40PM EST. The Diamondbacks are ranked 28th in the league in hitting with a batting average of .247 and averaging 4.3 runs per game this season. They will face a Rockies pitching staff that is ranked 16th in the league with an ERA of 4.29 and an opponent batting average of .266. Colorado will send Jorge De La Rosa to the bump with his 6-7 W/L record and ERA of 5.08 on the season. Over his last three outings he is a perfect 3-0 W/L with an ERA of 2.21 including a 5 to 0 win over this Diamondbacks team back on July 3rd where he threw 8 innings allowing no earned runs with four hits and six strikeouts. De La Rosa is 12-2 W/L (+10.4) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 38 percent to 46 percent over the last three years. The Rockies are ranked 18th in hitting with a batting average of .258 averaging 5.0 runs per game this season. Their runs per game increase to 5.6 when they take the field at Coors with a batting average of .278. Colorado will face a Diamondbacks pitching staff that is ranked 18th in the league with an earned run average of 4.30 and opponents have a batting average of .265 and an OBP of .330 against them this season. Arizona will send Doug Davis to the hill with his 4-9 W/L record and ERA of 3.41 this season. Arizona is 5-14 W/L in all his starts including 2-6 W/L when he takes the mound on the road. Over his last three starts Davis is 1-1 W/L with an ERA of 4.15 and the Diamondbacks are 1-2 W/L overall during that span. Arizona is 39-53 W/L (-16.34) this season including 28-37 W/L (-9.4) when playing under the lights and 9-16 W/L (-9.5) when facing left-handed starters. Data base research has uncovered three MLB Systems that are active for tonight’s game. Play ON any MLB team with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of >=6.50 over his last ten starts, 62-39 W/L (+41.4) since 1997. If our Play ON team is at home the record is 38-19 W/L (+27.5) since 1997. Finally we want to Play ON MLB Home Teams who average five or more runs per game against a starting pitcher who has an ERA of 3.70 or better and an ERA of 2.50 or better over his last three starts, 41-11 W/L (+27.4) the last five seasons. Our TPR Index projects a Rockies win in this game by 2.4 runs over the Diamondbacks and our Math Model also favors the host by 1.87 runs. We will lay the chalk as the Rockies continue their solid play and get a game one victory over the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night in the Mile High City.
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Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 6 Arizona Diamondbacks 4
Craig Trapp
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San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5
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ATL -1.5 (+134): The Braves are playing very good baseball lately winning 7 out of last 10 games overall and 3-1 at home!! Early in the season the bats had not been very good for the Braves but in the last 4 games they are averaging 6 runs per game. Today they turn to there young ace Hanson who is 4-0 since coming up from the minors in 7 games. He has allowed less than 2 runs per game and at home has been nearly unhittable. On the other side SFG have been very good lately overall but on the road they have struggled. In fact in July they are only 1-4 on the road and in that time period they are only averaging 1.7 runs per game on road!! Pitching has been very good all year but on the road they are not nearly as good. Sanchez goes for SF today and is coming off a complete game no hitter before the break. But don't be fooled he is not good on road going 0-7 this year with a 6.27 ERA. Hanson dominates today and wins in a blowout!! SCORE ATL 7 - SFG 1
LT Profits
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pittsburgh Pirates simply cannot hit right now, as some excellent pitching is the only reason they just took two of three from the San Francisco Giants, and even the normally potent Milwaukee Brewers have scuttled offensively the last three games.
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The two Pittsburgh wins over the Giants were by scored of 2-0 and 2-1, and the Bucs are batting a pathetic .188 as a team over their last 10 games. Not surprisingly, the Under is 8-1-1 over this stretch. This should make life easier for Milwaukee starter Mike Burns, whose ugly numbers are skewed by one terrible start vs. the Chicago Cubs. In actuality, Burns has pitched reasonably well in three of his four starts and he has the advantage of facing the Pirates for the first time.
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Similarly, Ross Ohlendorf is also facing the Brewers for the first time ever, and he is in fairly good form right now, allowing three runs or less in four of his last six starts. Ohlendorf has done his best pitching at home this year, where he is 5-2 while pitching for a losing team with a very good 3.38 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He is facing a Milwaukee offense that had managed just eight runs over the last three games.
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Finally, games played here at PNC Park have averaged a combined 8.10 runs this season, nearly a full run lower than this posted total, and we see no reason why these hurlers cannot keep this game Under tonight.
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Pick: Brewers, Pirates Under 9
Red Dog Sports
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St. Louis at Houston
Play: Under
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Play the Cardinals and Astros to go under the total as these two teams have 77 overs and 98 unders this year. In the last 12 meetings in Houston there have been 8 unders, 3 overs and a push. There have been 13 unders, 5 overs and a push in the last 19 between the two teams. Look for an under on Monday.
Scott Rickenbach
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati
Play: Over
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We're going to challenge the Dodgers Jason Schmidt in this one. It's his first MLB start in over two years. Since that time it's been two shoulder surgeries and two years of rehab for Schmidt. Look for him to get roughed up here by a Reds team that, other than being shutdown by Manny Parra of the Brewers on Saturday, averaged five runs per game in their other three games since the All Star Break. They will get their fair share against Schmidt here as it's going to take time for Schmidt to get back to being anywhere close to the pitcher he use to be.
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The good news for Dodgers fans here is that Los Angeles should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight. The Dodgers will be able to "tee off" against Micah Owings of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander gave up seven earned runs in just 4.1 innings in his most recent start. Also, he continues to struggle with big innings and the Dodgers offense is back on track after winning each of their last two games and totaling nine runs. Owings struggles continue and, with Schmidt struggling as well, we foresee a back and forth slugfest here. Consider a small play on OVER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers game on Monday.
Jimmy The Moose
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San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Under
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The Giants have played the under in 5 of their last 6 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 road games. The under is 7-3-3 in Sanchez's last 13 starts. In his last 6 road starts the the under is 5-0-1. The under is 9-3-1 in the Braves last 13 games. The under is 6-2-2 in their last 10 home games. The under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite. The under is 5-1 in Hanson's last 6 starts. Play the under.