Vernon Croy
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New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Play: New York Mets
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting solid value here Monday night with the superior overall team who should not be dogs in this game. The Nationals just lost 4 straight to the Chicago Cubs and they are just 2-12 in their last 14 home games against a team that has a road winning record below .400. The Nationals are just 11-42 in their last 53 games against an NL East division opponent and they are just 14-41 in their last 55 games in game 1 of a series. The Mets are 20-7 in their last 27 games when playing a team that has a winning record below .400 and the Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the Nationals. Livan Hernandez (5-5, 5.10 ERA) has owned the Nationals over two starts against them this season with an ERA of just 0.56 and I look for him to have a solid outing for the Mets who need him to pitch past the 6th inning tonight. Take the New York Mets Monday night.
THE SPREAD
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, 7:00PM ET
Games over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-6 (+6.6 Units) against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.1 Units)
Games this season
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 (+3.3 Units) against ATLANTA this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)
All games at ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-3 (+2.7 Units) against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)
Pick: San Francisco
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, 7:05PM ET
Games over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 8-6 (+2.7 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.4 Units)
Games this season
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
All games at PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-2 (+2.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)
Games played at PHILADELPHIA this season.
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Pitcher Versus Team Past History
TED LILLY vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
LILLY is 1-3 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.88 and a WHIP of 1.208.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)
Pick: Chicago
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:05PM ET
Games over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 29-7 (+20.4 Units) against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
20 of 33 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+6.5 Units)
Games this season
MILWAUKEE is 5-0 (+5.0 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.0 Units)
All games at PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 9-6 (+1.8 Units) against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)
Games played at PITTSBURGH this season.
MILWAUKEE is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)
Pick: Pittsburgh
Roz Juarbe
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Angels at Royals
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Kansas City has a losing record at home and has been playing terrible baseball. It does not get any easier for them here with Sidney Ponson on the mound, 1-5 with a 7.27 ERA. He was washed up a long time ago. The Angels are playing great baseball and have gotten surprisingly good results from several kid pitchers from Triple A. One goes here in Sean O’Sullivan, at 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA, whom the Royals have never seen. A great spot for the red-hot visitors
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Play the Angels.
Freddy Wills
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies still stay hot winning another series unfortunately we had them in their sandwhich loss this weekend as our POD Saturday. Monday we have them as our free pick as I really like this pitching match up and the Rockies offense against LHP to get it done at home. Doug Davis has been hot as of late, and has pitched well on the road 3.17ERA this year, but the Diamondbacks are just 5-17 in his last 22 road starts so he is clearly not getting the run support he deserves and a bullpen that has a 4.75ERA does not impress me on the road. Davis has started against the Rockies earlier in the season and struggled lasting only 5 innings on 4H 4BB and 4ER. Expect much of the same on the road here tonight. The Rockies at home vs. LHP are hitting .315 this year and are scoring 7.69 R/9! DeLaRosa will start for the Rockies he owns a 2.21ERA last 3 starts and he goes up against the Diamondbacks who are one of the worst road teams when it comes to hitting LHP. They own a .197 average on the road scoring 3.41 R/9. DelaRosa has success here against the Diamondbacks especially in 2009 going 14.2IP 10H 2ER and 12K's.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Cubs/Phillies UNDER 9.5
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I expect Ted Lilly and Rodrigo Lopez to duel tonight and the result should be a winner on the Under. Lilly has an ERA of 3.18 on the season and it is down to just 2.11 over his last 3 starts. Lopez is back healthy and I like his chances against a Cubs team which hasn't hit well on the road all season. The Under is a perfect 4-0 in Lilly's last 4 starts vs. the Phillies and 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings overall in this matchup. The Under is 11-3 in Lilly's last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 11-4 in the Cubs last 15 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Under is 5-0-1 in the Phillies last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter, 24-9-2 in their last 35 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 10-4 in their last 14 overall. Odds makers have set the bar too high for these teams tonight and we'll look to take advantage. Bet the Under for a Unit.
Rocketman
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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St Louis is 2-8 this year when playing on Monday. Houston has won 6 of their last 9 games overall. Houston bullpen has a 3.52 ERA at home this year. Kyle Lohse is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA on the road this year. Brian Moehler is 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA his last 3 starts. Moehler is 4-0 with a 3.46 ERA overall vs St Louis since 1997. Moehler's teams are 7-0 overall during his starts vs St Louis since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
Dennis Macklin
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies have been hitting on all cylinders since the change to Tracy. Tonight Colorado sends Juan De La Rosa to the mound having won his last four starts with a 3.12 ERA. The Snake's Doug Davis is just 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA in his L7 and has never had ANY type of career success (2-4)against the Rockies and was spanked 9-2 back in April. Not stepping in front of the train here, take Colorado.
Wunderdog
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New York Mets at Washington
Pick: Washington -130
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Both the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals have sure struggled over the last month or so, and the Mets have been reduced to a poor team because of multiple injuries to key players. The results of which have diminished their offense to a fragment of what it once was. The Mets have struggled so bad they have been shutout six times in their last 23 games. They have also scored three runs or less in 16 of their last 23 - certainly hard to find the win column with such poor production. They will go with Livan Hernandez in this one who has been a colossal struggle on the hill, sporting an 11.57 ERA over his last three starts. This is more of a fade the Mets play, than a play on the Nats as the Mets are not only physically bankrupt right now, they are emotionally bankrupt. I will go with the Nats in this one.
Jeff Benton
For Monday, I’m going to take a shot with the biggest ‘dog on the board and back the Orioles at the Yankees.
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I know New York is smoking hot and is coming off a three-game weekend sweep of the Tigers during which the Yanks’ pitching staff gave up a total of just five runs. But they had their three best pitchers – A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Joba Chamberlain – on the mound in those three wins. Tonight, the struggling Andy Pettitte takes the ball for New York, and with each passing start it’s looking like Pettitte (and his career) are running out of steam.
In his last two starts prior to the All-Star break, Pettitte gave up six runs in each outing while pitching a total of 10 1/3 innings as the Yanks lost 7-6 to the Blue Jays at home and 14-8 at the Angels. Going back to May 18, Pettitte has just three quality starts in his last 11 outings, and he’s been a complete mess all year at new Yankee Stadium, going 4-3 with a 5.72 ERA.
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This isn’t just a play against Pettitte, however. I really like young Orioles right-hander David Hernandez. The 24-year-old is 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA in his five starts; he’s pitched into the sixth inning in each of his starts this year; and he’s given up three runs or fewer in four of his five outings.
Yes, this is Hernandez’s first-ever start against the Yankees (and in the Bronx), but the kid is coming off consecutive quality road starts (five total runs allowed in 12 2/3 innings), with Baltimore winning 6-4 at the Angels and 5-3 at Seattle (two quality teams). Also, the Yankees’ veteran offense generally has a tough time with pitchers it hasn’t faced before.
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The Orioles are playing decent ball (5-3 last eight games, all against quality opponents), and their offense (46 runs last eight games) certainly has the ability to knock Pettitte around, especially in the bandbox that is new Yankee Stadium. Take the huge plus money with Baltimore.
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3♦ BALTIMORE
Scott Delaney
I am on an 11-6 run with complimentary releases and tonight we're playing the under in the clash between Minnesota and Oakland.
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Looking for a huge pitching showdown between Nick Blackburn and Gio Gonzalez tonight, resulting in a low-scoring affair at the Coliseum.
Let’s start with Blackburn, who bring the brunt of the pitching numbers for an under into this one. First and foremost, 12 of 17 totals this season have stayed under when he toes the slab for Minnesota, and that’s not by fluke, as he has a respectable 3.14 ERA on the year. He’s pitched well in his last three outings, as he’s 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in those starts.
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And in his last three starts against the Athletics, the totals have been 5, 5 and 7. With Blackburn on the mound, the Twins are on low-scoring runs of 5-0 against losing teams, 5-0 on the road, 11-1 on grass, 8-1 overall and 13-3 when visiting losing teams.
With Gonzalez, who is making his fourth start of the season and first since July 5 after getting skipped in the rotation for the return of Dallas Braden off the bereavement list, I’m expecting the same kind of start as his last one. It came against Cleveland and he was very solid in lasting six innings, scattering six hits, allowing just two runs and fanning eight for his first win of the season. While I do dig the 23-year-old’s potential, it’s the team numbers that dominate the play on an under.
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Oakland is on under streaks of 6-1 versus this division, 9-1 at home against right-handed starters and 14-3 overall against righties, 11-3 on grass, 20-6 on Mondays and 12-5 overall.
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Play this one low tonight.
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2♦ UNDER
Undefeated77's TRENDS SAY free sports picks:
now 4 - 1 = 80% 😮
Today's pick = boston/texas UNDER +100 (good value)
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This pick is now at -120 in my book. When I bet it was
+100
I did not know my recommendation could move the line. 😉
I thought only Doctor Bob could do that. ;D
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