Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 22

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

When the Tribe opens a three-game series with the Mariners in Seattle Monday night they will send Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound knowing his 3.31 road ERA this season is nearly 3 runs per game lower than his 6.09 home ERA. In addition, the Indians are 9-3 at night, and 4-0 against the A. L. West behind the lanky right-hander this campaign. With that look for Seattle to slip to 6-13 as a series host here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Bruce Marshall

LA Dodgers vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

On the surface it would look to be risky business to go against the Dodgers, who just got done sweeping the Nationals in D.C. and have won 20 of their last 25 (as well as seven straight on the road) to effectively pull abreast of the D-backs atop the NL West. And L.A. looks to be facing the sort of dysfunctional club (Toronto) that it has been beating consistently the past few weeks. But expect the Blue Jays to display some pride after being swept by the red-hot Rays, and for starter Josh Johnson, with time to rest over the All-Star break, to rebound from recent shaky efforts. We suspect that the last start made by Dodger starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, in which he gave up 7 hits and 5 runs at Arizona on July 10, might indicate a pending downturn for the second half of the season. And Ryu must face a hot Jose Reyes, who reached base four times in Sunday's 4-3 loss to visiting Tampa Bay and is 11 for 27 (.407) in his last six games, as well as Melky Cabrera, who has returned to active duty for Toronto after missing 18 games due to a sore left knee.

Bryan Power

Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Pick: Under

I played Pittsburgh Under & won yesterday and will look to do the same again today. After avoiding a potential sweep at the hands of the Reds Sunday, they now open a series against the Washington Nationals, who were just swept at home by the surging Dodgers....

The Nats struggled to score runs throughout the Dodgers series, totaling only five in the three games. Yesterday saw them get dominated by Clayton Kershaw, who held them to just two hits over seven innings. This is a team that averages just 3.6 runs per game, ranking them 27th in the league. They rank 27th in team batting average and 28th in on base percentage. They have not scored more than five runs in any game since July 7th.

Pittsburgh has not scored more than five runs in any game since July 5th, a span of 11 games. They were fortunate to have Jeff Locke on the mound yesterday and today will go with Charlie Morton, who has a 3.19 ERA so far in six starts. He should handle the Washington lineup. Meanwhile, a Pirates lineup averaging only 3.7 runs per game should be held in check by Dan Haren, who threw six scoreless innings his last time out.

Will Rogers

NY Yankees vs. Texas
Pick: Texas

I think this is going to be a big series for Texas. I went 2 for 2 on the Yankees game last night, cashing both side & total. They lost & the game went Over. I feel they remain one of the most overvalued teams in the game & that even this high price on the Rangers Monday is a bargain Monday with Yu Darvish on the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Yu Darvish - I had to start here as Darvish has a 3.02 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. In two career starts vs. the Yankees, his ERA is 1.98. Don't be fooled by the record as it should be much better. The team has failed to give him adequate run support much of the time. However, that shouldn't be a problem against Ivan Nova, who has a 7.45 ERA in two road starts thus far. Nearly a quarter of Darvish's walks issued this season have come in his last three starts. Prior to that, his KW ratio was 137-31. This is a dominant pitcher.

2. Desperation - Texas just got swept here at home by Baltimore and has lost seven of its last eight. This is a desperate team in need of a win. I think they'll get it Monday.

3. X-Factor - Having played Sunday night puts the visiting Yankees at a disadvantage. The fact that the game went into extra innings after a big rally only for the team to lose only heightens this disadvantage.

Art Aronson

Cleveland vs. Seattle
Pick: Over

Ubaldo Jimenez (7-4, 4.56 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Jimenez went four frames, giving up four runs off eight hits with two walks in a lucky no-decision vs. the Royals on Sunday. Jimenez has looked like his former brilliant self at times this year, but also extremely pedestrian at others; he'll be throwing opposite Aaron Harang (4-8, 5.38 ERA) who gave up seven earned runs off eight hits with three walks in five innings without a single K in his team's eventual 11-4 loss to the Red Sox in his final start before the break (note that the "Harang-a-tang" has been particularly inept at home this season, going 3-4 with an unremarkable 4.99 ERA thus far). These teams have played four times this year and the O/U is 2-1-1 (most recently the Indians won a 10-8 slugfest at home back on May 20th). Seattle is white hot at the plate right now, coming off a sweep of the Astros, which I believe signals a "long" night for Jimenez. That said, Cleveland has a big opportunity to build some momentum off the confirmed "gas can" Harang. Two suspect starters opening this series vs. a couple of hard-hitting lineups; consider a second look at the "over" in this one.

Jimmy Boyd

Los Angeles Dodgers -102

Josh Johnson has been horrible in his last three outings posting a 5.00 ERA and an 0-3 record. On the season he has a 1-5 record in 12 starts and the Blue Jays as a team are 3-9 in those games. Johnson cannot count on much run support with his Toronto teammates batting .251 this season.

The Dodgers offense should have a big advantage in this game as they have a .266 batting average on the road this season. They will have Hyun-Jin Ryu getting the start and he has been spectacular this year. In his 18 starts Ryu has a 3.09 ERA. The Dodgers are the hot team coming into this matchup and they should have no problems picking up a win against this Toronto team whose hot streak ended prior to the All Star break.

Ray Monohan

Chicago White Sox +112

Its first vs last in the American League Central as well as a battle of a couple of All-Stars hurlers. Tiger SP Max Scherzer finally dropped a decision just before the break and I think he will drop another Monday. SP Chris Sale goes for the Pale Hose, who took two of three from Atlanta over the weekend. Sale beat the Tigers in his last start before the break at Comerica. His number have been better all season long at home and this is a great value opportunity. The White Sox have been a disaster this season but they are just over .500 (9-8) when Sale takes the hill including 5-2 +2.4 units at home and 4-3 +1.9 units when he pitches as an underdog. This is a good situation to fade the Tigers who dropped their weekend set against the Royals.

Rob Vinciletti

Oakland A's -165

Oakland has owns the Astros winning all 9 games against them this season. In games here in Houston they have won 8 of 9 the past few years. They have won all 4 times as a road favorite from -150 to -175 this season and have T. Millone pitching. Oakland has won 17 of his last 18 starts if he pitched less than 6 innings in his last start. Houston is 11-39 vs winning teams and 12-54 in July the past few years. In home games with a total of 9 to 9.5 the Astros have dropped 14 of the last 18.. Keuchel goes for the Astros tonight and he was dismal in his lone start here vs Oakland allowing 6 earned runs in 6 innings back in May. Look for Oakland to take game one.

Jeffrey Brandes

Chicago Cubs +132

Pitchers:
CHICAGO CUBS: MATT GARZA (R) ERA: 3.17 W/L: 6-1
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: TYLER SKAGGS (L) ERA: 4.03 W/L: 2-1

Trade rumors are hot and heavy regarding Chicago's starting pitcher. If he does go for the Cubs tonight, MATT GARZA is 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last five starts, all quality starts, giving up six earned runs over 36 2/3 innings. He's struck out 33 in that stretch.

TYLER SKAGGS is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in his last 3 starts. In his last start, he lasted only 4 1/3 innings, having yielded three runs on eight hits to the Dodgers.

Key Trends:
After a loss, the Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10.
After playing San Francisco, the D-Backs are 4-6 in their next game.

Alex Smart

Cincinnati Reds +105

The Reds are coming off a loss last time out, but it must be noted that Arroyo Cinncys starter has seen his team go 8-0 when he starts after a Reds loss.Arroyo has won two of his last three starts and has not allowed more than three earned runs in an any start since May 29. When and if he tires, he is backed by a group of Reds relievers that have posted a 0.94 ERA over their last 16 games, allowing just five earned runs in 47 2/3 innings of top quality work. Tim Linceum his Giants pitching opponent is off a stellar no hitter in his last outing, but now I expect he will be in a huge letdown scenario. Lincecum, coincidentally is just 0-2 with a bloated 6.85 ERA in four career starts versus the Reds.
The Reds have done well against below .500 teams like the Giants registering a moneymaking 14-5 moneyline mark in their last 19 road games. The Reds are also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Franciscoand are 6-1 in Arroyos last 7 starts vs. National League West. Meanwhile, the Giants are 0-6 in Lincecums last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record are a lowly 2-10 in their last 12 vs. the National League Central.

Jim Feist

Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Seattle righty Aaron Harang is 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA against Cleveland, a team a long way from home. The Indians are 19-43 in their last 62 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Indians starter Ubaldo Jimenez is a wild one, walking 52 in 98+ innings with a 4.56 ERA despite a winning overall record. And he's getting worse walking 9 his last three starts in just 15 innings. And the Indians are 7-18 in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Sports Experts 17

Cleveland at Seattle
Pick: Under

Last 4 games played by the Indians and the Mariners each team went exactly 3 under and just 1 over, this tendency will continue tonight even with Ubaldo Jimenez high era of 4.56 and Aaron Harangue high era of 5.68. Trust in the experience of Sports Experts 17 in this game. UNDER 8 runs our Pick in this game tonight.

Bryan Leonard

Baltimore -120

Scott Feldman and Wade Davis will be the starters when the Orioles and the Royals open up a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium. The Orioles were thoroughly impressive out the break, completing a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers and holding the talented Rangers lineup to just six runs. It'll be up to Feldman to keep the ball rolling. The All-Star Break gave Feldman a chance to catch his breath after being traded from the Cubs to the Orioles in late June, so the break was a good chance to deal with family issues and get other affairs in order.

Feldman has had good success against the Royals in his career, holding current Royals to a .243/.277/.346/.623 slash line over 112 plate appearances. Feldman is a ground ball wizard, which should bode well for him in a park with big outfield alleys where pitchers can get in trouble if they get the ball up. Outside of a start against his former team, the Rangers, Feldman has thrown two quality starts in three outings back in the AL.

Wade Davis has thrown a lot of batting practice this season. In 18 starts, Davis has an ugly 5.89 ERA, with a very ugly 1.75 WHIP, and a .321 batting average against. He draws a very good Orioles lineup in this start, so we don't anticipate him having a lot of success. The Orioles have also seen quite a bit of Davis from his days in Tampa with the Rays. After showing some signs of coming out of it in late June, Davis gave up 17 runs in his last three starts before the break, with his two worst starts being against the Twins and Yankees, not exactly great lineups. The Royals have won just twice in Davis's last nine starts.

Matt Fargo

Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Miami Marlins

It is safe to say that Miami did not start the second half of the season with any success as it was swept at Milwaukee over the weekend and failed to score a single run in the process. The Marlins were not completely dominated as two losses were by one and two runs and they were outhit just 24-15. Obviously scoring runs is important and a trip to Colorado should finally get the offense going. Tom Koehler gets the start tonight and while he has just one win to his credit, he has not pitched that bad at all. His 4.70 ERA is average but his 1.23 WHIP is very solid and that ratio is more indicative of how he has thrown. He has allowed three runs or less is seven of his 10 starts including four of six on the road. Despite being 1-3 under the lights, he has a 3.60 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six starts and the issue has been run support where he has gotten just 1.83 rpg. That changes tonight as the Rockies have the second worst home ERA in the National League despite allowing just nine runs total in their three-game series against the Cubs over the weekend. Colorado took two of the three games thanks to plating 13 runs in the last two games after scoring a total of eight runs in its previous five games. Drew Pomeranz gets the ball tonight which definitely raises some eyebrows. He is 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA in three starts and his work in the Minors has not been much better. He allowed seven runs in 5.1 innings in his most recent outing in Tulsa and failed to make it past five innings in 15 starts. He struggled in the rotation last year in Colorado, going 2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 22 starts. The Marlins are 4-1 in their last five games against left-handed starters.