Jesse Schule
LA Dodgers vs. Toronto
Pick: LA Dodgers
The Dodgers went into the All Star break as one of MLB's hottest teams, and they haven't slowed down any, coming off a sweep of the Nats in Washington. They will be in Canada on Monday taking on a Blue Jays team that has seen their season go into the toilet the past few weeks. Toronto was swept by the Rays at home, and they are now 13.5 games back of Boston in the AL East.
Josh Johnson will be back on the mound at Rogers Center, and he's hoping for a better outing after getting shelled his last time out. Johnson (1-5, 5.16 ERA) allowed seven runs on seven hits over seven innings of work in a 7-4 loss to Baltimore in his last start. That was at Camden Yards, but he wasn't any better in his last start at home, allowing six runs on seven hits over five innings in a 6-2 loss to Detroit.
Andre Ethier will be looking forward to seeing Johnson again, he's owned him, hitting .533 in 15 career at bats.
The Dodgers hand the ball to Hyun Jin-Ryu, who has been excellent in his first season in the majors. Ryu (7-3, 3.09 ERA) did not factor in the decision in a 7-5 win at Arizona his last time out. Prior to that he recorded five straight quality starts.
The Dodgers come in red hot, with a mismatch on the mound, and yet they are still a slight underdog. The value lies with a play on the visitors here.
Tom Stryker
Toronto Blue Jays -115
Toronto has stumbled out of the gate after the All-Star break and dropped its first three at home to Tampa Bay. Even though Los Angeles enters on a bit of a run, the Blue Jays will finally pick up their first victory in the second half of the season.
Toeing the rubber for the Jays tonight will be veteran right-hander Josh Johnson. In his last start at Baltimore before the break, Johnson was slammed by the O's for seven earned runs and seven hits in 6.0 innings of work. Thankfully, No. 55 has been at his best inside the Rogers Centre. At home, JJ has surrendered only 17 earned runs and 45 hits through 41.2 frames. That's good enough for a 1-1 mark and a decent 3.67 ERA.
Southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the call for Los Angeles on Monday night. In his last trip to the bump at Arizona before the break, Ryu was cranked for five earned runs and seven hits in 5.0 frames. The fact that this contest is on foreign soil certainly helps our cause too. Hyun-Jin owns a 4-1 record with a strong 1.90 ERA in Los Angeles compared to a 3-2 mark with a soft 4.42 ERA on the road.
As good as the Dodgers have been lately, I'm not about to back them in Interleague play. Against the American League, LA has slipped in 54 of 73 as a guest including 27 of its last 37 in this role matched up against an opponent that sports a won/loss percentage less than .500. TO make matters worse, the Dodgers have dropped nine of their last 13 on astroturf. Meanwhile, Toronto has won 9 of its last 10 at home in Interleague play and eight of its last 11 facing a left-handed starter.
Resting in the cellar in the AL East, the Jays need to crank their game up a notch especially in those north of the border. Take Toronto with Johnson.
Chip Chirimbes
Toronto Blue Jays -113
Blue Jays over Dodgers- Since the addition of Puig the Dodgers are playing the best ball in the majors as they have won 20 of their last 25 games and now trail Arizona in the west bu just one-half game. Toronto meanwhile has dropped six of seven but will be getting outfielder Melky Cabrera back from the disabled list. The Raptors Josh Johnson (1-5, 5.16 ERA) has had his career derailed with his shoulder injury but is 3-2 lifetime against the Dodgers. Still, with the Raptors favored here I like their chances.
Jack Jones
San Francisco Giants -120
As bad as the defending champion San Francisco Giants have played up to this point, they are still just 5.5 games out of first place in the NL West division. Getting them as a small home favorite is an absolute gift from oddsmakers tonight.
Tim Lincecum hasn't pitched up to his old Cy Young-caliber standards this season, but he has shown signs of it of late. In fact, he is coming off a no-hitter in which he struck out 13 batters in a 9-0 victory at San Diego on July 13th. With plenty of time to rest between starts, Lincecum will be ready to go tonight.
Bronson Arroyo is having an average season for the Cincinnati Reds. He has been at his worst away from home this year, going 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA in seven road starts in 2013. Arroyo has allowed a whopping eight homers over those seven starts.
The Reds are 5-11 in their last 16 road games. Cincinnati is 3-9 in its last 12 games as an underdog. The Reds are 1-5 in Arroyo's last 6 starts as a road underdog. The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. San Francisco is 21-7 in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds are 1-4 in Arroyo's last 5 road starts vs. San Francisco. Bet the Giants Monday.
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Baltimore at Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City’s weekend home series win over Detroit may have bred some confidence but Baltimore’s impressive three-game road sweep of Texas sent a message. At last Thursday’s team workout, O’s Manager Buck Showalter was ready to preach to his team how important the second half of the season was but he decided not to. "The look on their faces told me, 'OK, I don't need to do this." The three game stampede of the Rangers where Baltimore never trailed during the 27 innings is an indicator of how focused the Orioles are right now. The starting staff threw 21 innings and posted a 1.71 ERA against Texas which added to their stretch of six quality outings in their last seven games. Tonight’s matchup appears to be a good fit as Scott Feldman has featured solid movement and the ability to mix all of his pitches for strikes. Feldman should keep the free swinging Royals off balance tonight. The Orioles offense figures to lend support once again as they face Kansas City’s Wade Davis who has been hit extremely hard in two of his last three outings. Baltimore has been strong offensively against righties (.275 BA) and on the road (.271 BA) this season. Batters have a .321 BA, .387 OBP and .866 OPS versus Davis this season which doesn’t suggest much success for him in this contest. The Orioles bullpen got what could be a very positive second half sign last night when reliever Darren O’Day stepped in and recorded the save in place of closer Jim Johnson who was given the night off for rest. With the starters easing the load on the bullpen recently, the O’s have enough to seal the back end tonight. Tough to ignore Baltimore right now as they seem primed to finish this road trip off strong.
John Ryan
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Prediction: New York Yankees
The simulator shows a high probability that the Yankees will rebound from their series loss to the Red Sox and win this game. The Yankees are nearing that point of must-win if they are going to be buyers in the days ahead of the July 31 trading deadline. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 104-89 mark for 54% winners, but has made a whopping 61 units/unit wagered since 2007 averaging a +147 DOG play. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY YANKEES) that are struggling AL offensive team scoring <=4.5 runs/game and is now facing a team with a good bullpen sporting an ERA<=3.75 and after a loss by 2 runs or less. Darvish was roughed up by the Astros in his last start before the All-Star break and I don't believe he will be in dominating form tonight either. Nova finished strong for the Yankees posting a 2.28 ERA with a 0.887 WHIP in his last three starts. Although the playoffs look bleak right now, a win tonight will keep the Yankee fans and Brian Cashman hoping for a miracle run. Take the Yankees.
Rocketman Sports
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Baltimore Orioles -112
The Baltimore Orioles travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Monday night. Kansas City is 250-366 last 616 games at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Baltimore has won 4 in a row heading into tonight including a weekend sweep in Texas. Baltimore is allowing only 3.4 runs per game their past seven games overall. Kansas City is scoring only 2.7 runs per game their past seven games overall. Scott Feldman has pitched well for Baltimore this year as he is 8-7 with a 3.86 ERA overall. Wade Davis has struggled this year at 4-8 with a 5.89 ERA overall, 1-4 with a 4.44 ERA at home and 0-3 with an 11.77 ERA his last 3 starts. Feldman is 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA in all his starts vs Kansas City in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Baltimore tonight!
Steve Merril
Chicago vs. Arizona
Play: Under 8
The Diamondbacks host the Cubs for the first of a 4-game series beginning on Monday night. They will have to contend with Matt Garza who is auditioning for new teams. Garza is 6-1 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 11 starts. He has allowed just 4 earned runs in his last three starts. The righty beat Arizona back in May in Chicago after giving up just 2 runs and six hits in seven innings. Paul Goldschmidt (0-6), Jason Kubel (1-8), Cliff Pennington (1-6) and Cody Ross (1-12) all have had their problems with Garza. Arizona’s offense has scored just 26 runs in their last 10 games while going Under the total in seven of those games.
Tyler Skaggs is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in four home starts for Arizona. He has allowed just 8 runs in 23.3 innings pitched at home. The southpaw is facing a Chicago team that is hitting just .234 against left-handed starters this season. Chicago has gone Under in 15 of their 28 games against lefties. The Arizona bullpen is 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this season. These two teams have played 6 Unders in their last 10 meetings in Arizona, and we expect another low-scoring game between the Cubs and Diamondbacks on Monday night.
Steve Janus
Chicago Cubs +126
I've had a lot of success backing Chicago Matt Garza of late, as I really feel he's pitching his heart out to get traded to a contender before the July 31 deadline. Garza has a 1.66 ERA and 1.108 WHIP over his last three starts and has allowed a total of six earned runs over his last six starts combined. Not to mention he's 3-0 with a 2.23 ERA over seven road starts and 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA over four career starts vs Arizona, includes a 7-2 Cubs win over the Diamondbacks on May 31.
Arizona's Tyler Skaggs has a lot of potential, but he's still extremely raw. To no surprise he's had a mixed bag of results. In two of his starts he hasn't allowed a single earned run, but in the other three he's given up 13 runs on 22 hits in just 15 innings of work. He faces a Chicago offense that has been swinging the bats well despite not scoring a lot of runs. The Cubs are hitting .263 over their last seven games and have a pretty impressive 49 hits over their last five games (at least 8 in each game). I'll gladly take my chances on the Cubs providing Garza just enough run-supper to get the victory here as a decent priced underdog.
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Los Angeles +108 over TORONTOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blue Jays didn’t get any favors after the break by having to play the AL’s hottest team, the Tampa Bay Rays, who have won 20 of their past 24 ball games. Things don’t get any easier here with the Dodgers, the NL’s hottest team, who have won 21 of their past 26 games. In terms of frame of mind, give a big edge to the Dodgers, who are coming off a three-game sweep in Washington against three very tough starters in Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman. L.A. takes a big step down in class here in facing Josh Johnson. A normalized hit% and strand% are all it took for Johnson to go from elite to mediocre, though lingering effects of a shoulder injury may explain lost velocity. Johnson has started just 12 games this season and has one win and five quality starts. The Jays have lost Johnson’s last four starts and over his last five games he has a disturbing groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/30%/33%. Pay close attention to Johnson’s 30% line-drive rate because there isn’t a pitcher in baseball that can have success with a rate that high. It’s also worth noting that these Dodgers have had plenty of success against Johnson when he was a member of the Marlins. Current Dodgers have 34 hits in 92 career AB’s versus Johnson for a BA of .370, an OBP of .416 and a sick OPS of 1.003. That’s when he was good.
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In 18 starts, Hyun-jin Ryu has 14 pure quality one’s. He has a 51% groundball rate and a line-drive rate of 14%. Those are both elite numbers. Ryu just keeps going out there every five days and he gives the Dodgers a great chance of winning. xERA loves his strike-throwing ability and batted ball profile. Ryu has been as consistent as any pitcher in the game and that’s pretty impressive when you consider that he’s the first pitcher to make the jump directly from the Korean League to MLB. The Blue Birds are hitting just .248 against southpaws this season and they’ve never seen Ryu before. Wrong side favored.
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Pittsburgh +124 over WASHINGTONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nationals rarely win when Dan Haren starts. The last time Washington won a game that Haren started was way back on May 9, 11 starts ago when he beat the Tigers, 5-4. Since then, the Nationals have lost his last 10 starts with Haren going 0-7 over that span. Haren has become a big health risk given his cranky shoulder and bad back. His poor surface stats (5.61 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) have made him a big performance risk too. Haren has a fly-ball bias profile, a .299 BAA and 15% of the fly-balls hit off him have left the yard. The Nats continue to underachieve and every time they take a step forward they subsequently take two steps backwards.
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Charlie Morton has been a pleasant surprise for the Pirates since joining the rotation. He's moved his dominance rate up, which pairs nicely with a very impressive 60% groundball rate. More groundballs is a recipe for success when you are pitching for the Pirates, who are innovators in the liberal use of infield shifts. Charlie Morton was never a big-K guy in the majors but he's been able to maintain a decent strikeout rate (and a 3.63 xERA) in his post-Tommy-John season. Morton is getting better with each start and his results are fully supported by his skills. Morton is high on our radar as a pitcher with great profit potential and we’ll gladly step in on him and the Pirates here.
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Cincinnati +113 over SAN FRANCISCOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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One of the most profitable angles in all of sports has been to wager against a pitcher coming off a no-hitter. We cashed in on that angle betting against Homer Bailey earlier this month and will look to do the same here. A no-hitter is rare. The focus it takes intensifies with each passing inning and then with each passing out after the sixth inning. What follows is a celebration, interviews, tons of accolades and a real sense of accomplishment. To come out for your next start is completely anti-climactic, not to mention a serious letdown. And it’s not like Lincecum is having a great year. In 19 starts, only eight have been of the pure quality variety. Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2013 among NL starters. It's a problem that has made him extremely hittable and it's one that is exacerbated by his gradual loss of fastball velocity. He had a 94 mph average fastball velocity early in his career. Now it barely cracks 90 mph. Lincecum has a pedestrian 4.12 ERA at home this year in the majors best pitcher’s park and it’s likely that he runs into some serious trouble today.
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After a disastrous 2011, the 35-year-old Bronson Arroyo came to camp in “the best shape of my life" and had his best skills season since 2004. Improved command and on base average were keys. Arroyo has carried that over to this season. Not only are his surface stats (3.42 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) good again, so too are his base skills. One explanation for Arroyo's resurgence could be his pitch mix. He is using his 87 mph fastball significantly less and is throwing more sliders and curveballs in its place. Another is his dominance with the bases empty. Arroyo has posted strong numbers both above and below the surface. It’s even more impressive when you consider that he pitches half his games at Great American Ballpark. Arroyo is a crafty lefty that is on a two-year good run and against this struggling line-up at this park, he’s very likely to thrive again. The Reds may very well be the best value on today’s card.
Greg Shaker
Pittsburgh +129
Exactly how is David Haren a favorite tonight over one of the Best Teams in the National League? The Nats have won just 4 times in his 14 starts including most recently 1-10 when he takes the Hill. The Nationals have won just once in their last 6 efforts and offense is clearly the biggest reason why, as they are scoring about 2.3 RPG Over their last 10 played. The Pirates give the ball to Charlie Morton tonight and he has been a big surprise for them. I frankly think he has some imploding to do before it's all over this year but most likely he will have success tonight throwing at the Nats Bats. The Pitt Bullpen remains very solid with an ERA near 1 Over their last 10 games. The Pirates have not been afraid of the road this year either. High humidity tonight means that Fly Balls might go further than usual and Haren is one that throws a lot of those. Morton is just the OPPOSITE with a very high ground ball rate this year. Sometimes I just don't get it with what these Oddsmakers are doing and this one is that. I'm going to play the Bucs & at a very nice number.
Wunderdog
Cleveland at Seattle
Pick: Seattle -105
Don't look now, but the Seattle Mariners have rattled off six straight wins. The pitching is strong, but the issue this season with Seattle has been the quiet bats, but that has changed as the offense has caught fire. In their last 10 games, Seattle has averaged 7.4 runs per game, including cracking double-digits three times. This comes on the heels of having done so just one time prior all season long. Cleveland has had issues on the road where they are just 22-27 on the season, while the M's enter a respectable .500 at home. They have certainly had issues on the road behind Ubaldo Jimenez, where they are a woeful 8-20 in his last 28 road starts as a dog. The M's are working magic at home where they are a crisp 29-9 in their last 38 vs. a team with a losing road record, and the Tribe has mustered just a single win in their last five here. Play on Seattle.
Larry Ness
Cleveland vs. Seattle
Pick: Cleveland
The Mariners own MLB’s longest active winning streak at SIX in a row, after completing a three-game sweep in Houston against the Astros with Sunday’s 12-5 victory. Seattle has hit 11 HRs and outscored their opponents 44-20 during the team's longest winning streak since posting eight consecutive victories from August 14-22 of last year. As for the Indians, they dropped two of three games at Minnesota this past weekend but didn’t lose any ground in the AL Central, as the Tigers also lost two of three Friday-Sunday at Kansas city (Cleveland trails Detroit by just 1 1/2 games).
The Mariners have a much tougher ‘climb’ in the AL West, as Seattle’s winning streak has them at 46-52 but that’s good enough for just fourth-place, 11 games back of the A’s and eight back of the Rangers. Cleveland swept a four-game home series from the Mariners back in May (17-20) but may be choosing the wrong time to visit Seattle, as the Mariners are red-hot. Then again, maybe not? Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound and while he’s NOT the same pitcher who went in 19-8 (2.88 ERA) for the Rockies in 2010, this is the best he’s pitched since joining the Indians in 2011 in a trade deadline deal.
Jimenez is 7-4, with a 4.56 ERA, with the Indians going 13-6 in starts. His moneyline record of plus-$972, ranks 5th among all starters. Let me also note that he’s been much more effective away from home, going 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 road starts (Indians are 7-3), compared to just 3-3 at home, where his ERA is 6.09 in nine starts (Indians are 6-3).
Aaron Harang gets the nod for Seattle and he’s had a poor season. Harang enters 4-8 with a 5.38 ERA in 15 starts, in which Seattle is just 5-10. Harang is 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 10 career starts against the Indians but he hasn't faced them since 2010 when he was with Cincinnati, so I’m filing that under “old news.” Seattle’s win streak end s tonight.
Dave Price
Chicago Cubs +126
The Cubs are showing value at this price given the advantage they have on the mound with Garza. The veteran right-hander is 6-1 with an ERA of 3.17 in 11 starts. He's done some of his best work on the road where he's 3-0 with a 2.23 ERA in seven outings. Garza has especially sizzled of late, going 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA over his last five starts. The Cubs are 4-0 in his last four starts as an underdog. Arizona's Tyler Skaggs has an ERA of 4.03 in five starts, and the D-backs are 3-7 in his last 10 starts dating back to last season. Take the Cubs.
Jeff Alexander
Oakland Athletics -155
Oakland gets the call as Monday's free play as it is 9-0 against Houston this season. Looking back further, the Athletics are 11-0 in the last 11 meetings and 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Houston. Two of this season's wins against the Astros have come with Tom Milone on the mound. The A's are 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Oakland crushed Houston scheduled starter Dallas Keuchel earlier this season, touching him for 6 runs in a 6-2 win, and I expect them to do it again. Bet the A's.