Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday July, 23

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Prediction: Washington Nationals

When the Nats and Mets meet in New York in the opener of this three-game series Monday night Washington will send Jordan Zimmerman to the hill knowing he is strong KW form with 19 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last four starts. Zimmerman is also 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts in this series, and 4-1 with a 0.56 ERA In his last five team starts during July. Simply too many good numbers to pass up here, and we won't. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

MTi Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The Dodgers are 0-11 when Chad Billingsley starts on the road when he is off a start in which their team scored first and lost for a net profit of $1250 when playing against.
Consider the Cardinals.

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants fit a nice 12-2 system, and will get this one, they just are too heavily favored for unit rated status. Looking at the system we note that home favorites from -140 or higher that come in off a road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent that are off a 1 run home win have cashed 12 of the last 14 times. The Giants have been hot of late and are scoring 5.5 runs the past week. In games vs losing teams in the 2nd half the Giants have won 5 of the last 6. They are 9-3 as a home favorite in this range and have cashed 9 of 11 on Monday. The Padres are 4-9 on the road when the total is 7 or less. The Padres have C. Richard on the mound and they have lost 8 of his 11 road starts this season. The Giants counter with B. Vogelsong and he is 7-2 with a 1.43 home era this season. Look for the Giants to take game one of this series.

Chris Elliott

Washington vs. NY Mets
Pick: Under

The Washington Nationals will call on right hander Jordan Zimmerman for Monday's night game with the New York Mets (47-48). Zimmerman has pitched excellent for Washington with a hard luck record of 7-6 an awesome 2.35 ERA and a microscopic 1.09 WHIP. In his last 5 starts he has allowed just 3 runs in 32 innings for an ERA of 0.84. 3 of the last 5 starts that Zimmerman has made on the road have ended up “Under” the total.

The New York Mets will counter with 33 year old right hander Chris Young on Monday against the Nationals. Young has made 8 starts this season for the Mets with a record of 2-4, a 4.11 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. In his last 5 starts he has given up 15 runs over 28.1 innings for an ERA of 4.76. 5 of the 8 starts that Young has made in his career against Washington have ended up “Under” the total.

The Nationals have gone "Under" the total 23-20 on the road and 31-29 vs. RHP. The Mets have gone "Under" the total 22-24 at home and 30-26 vs RHP which doesn't tell a lot! For me, this game comes down to Jordan Zimmerman, he has easily been the best Nats pitcher in the past month among a great staff that includes Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. Chris Young is a serviceable starter who can give the Mets solid innings. At a current total of 8, expect a pitching matchup that easily stays "Under" the total!

Freddy Wills

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Minnesota Twins

Francisco Liriano is surrounded by trade rumors, but that has not seemed to bother him much as he has posted a 2.61 ERA over his last three starts combined. He's pretty much held the White Sox in check over his career holding their active hitters to a .699 OPS with a 154 AB. Liriano's last 3 starts vs. the White Sox he has posted a 1.64 ERA. The White Sox have struggled vs. lefties at times this year and I see a lot of value in this play for that reason. The Twins are 7-0 in Liriano's last 7 vs. the White Sox. However, he is not the biggest reason why I like this as a free play.

Gavin Floyd has really struggled and he's coming off the DL from tendinitis to make his first start. He has struggled even more at home against the Twins posting a 13.03 ERA over his last 4 starts dating back to 2010. The Twins have 202 AB with a .347 average and a .935 OPS with Joe Mauer leading the hit parade going 18-42 off Floyd. Mauer has also been red hot with the bat which is a big reason why the Twins have been hitting well and are 11th in OPS in the month of July. They have also hit .285 vs. RHP scoring 4.92 R/9 over their last 10 games. The Twins should also be able to score some runs off the White Sox bullpen that has a 6.83 ERA over their last 10 games.

Notable Hot Starters:
Jeff Samarzdija (2-1, 1.21 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)
Gavin Floyd (2-1, 1.20 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
Jordan Zimmerman (2-1, 0.74 WHIP, 0.47 ERA)
Joe Kelly (1-2, 1.28 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)
Ryan Vogelsong (2-1, 0.95 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher is Josh Johnson who has struggled on and off all season, but he has been better pitching at home where he will be on Monday where he posts a 3.63 ERA. He's also dominated the Braves over his career and has held their hitters to a .610 OPS in 161 AB with a .224 average.

Notable Cold Starters:
Justin Masterson (2-1, 2.11 WHIP, 6.89 ERA)
Randy Wolf (1-2, 1.53 WHIP, 7.13 ERA)
Roy Halladay (1-2, 1.54 WHIP, 7.62 ERA)
Bruce Chen (1-2, 2.25 WHIP, 10.80 ERA)
Eric Bedard (1-2, 1.93 WHIP, 6.00 ERA0

Brad Diamond

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Atlanta Braves

Hurler Josh Johnson (5-7, 4.35) has been struggling over the last month with his most effective outing dating back to June 29th against the Phillies. Since then he has given up a total of 14 earned runs to Chicago, Washington and Milwaukee. Miami starts tonight 1-4 the last five outings against Atlanta. In contrast, the Braves have been successful in 10 of the last 12 versus the Marlins. Take a ticket with visiting Atlanta.

Jim Feist

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox need to beat bad teams like Minnesota if they hope to regain first place in the AL Central. The White Sox relinquished that spot to the Detroit Tigers in their three game series as the Tigers took all three games. In fact, the White Sox could manage just seven total runs in the three game series. The losses extended the Sox losing streak to four straight and six of the last eight. The Twins took two of three games from the Royals, but still have lost six of their last 10 games. Francisco Liriano starts for the Twins with a 3-9 record and 4.81 ERA. Liriano is 1-5 on the road this year with a 5.50 ERA. Gavin Floyd will start for the Sox with a 7-8 record and 4.54 ERA. Floyd is 6-3 at home this year with a 4.35 ERA. The Sox MUST beat these bad teams and that makes this series imperative if they hope to keep pace with the Tigers. Low line for the Sox here at home with a decent home pitcher. I'm taking the White Sox on Monday.

Dave Cokin

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Minnesota Twins

The White Sox are on a bit of a slide right now, having been swept in a series for the first time all season. I see the streak continuing tonight, and I'm backing Liriano and the Twins as road dogs.

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati -1½ +107 over HOUSTON

The beat goes on for the Astros. They were swept in Arizona on the weekend and were outscored 33-13 in the three-game set. The Astros’ staff has allowed eight runs or more in five of their past six games. They’ve now lost 19 of their past 21 games and if that’s not demoralizing enough, constantly being behind by crooked numbers before the fifth inning is. Wandy Rodriguez, who is likely the next Astro to be dealt, is coming off back-to-back outings in pitcher friendly San Diego and San Francisco in which he allowed nine runs in a combined 10 frames. The Astros have lost five of his last six starts.

Meanwhile, the Reds are hot with four wins in a row and nine wins in their past 11 games. For whatever reason, it took some time for Mat Latos to settle down in Cincinnati after an off-season trade. His 5.97 ERA from April is a thing of the past. Latos K/BB totals have maintained a high level with 106 K’s in 113 innings with just 35 walks issued. He has a groundball bias profile and he’s been especially electric in his last six starts. He should make quick work of this pathetic lineup with the Reds bats providing plenty of support.

Los Angeles +120 over ST. LOUIS

Chad Billingsley will be making his first start since July 7 and while it is tough to recommend backing a pitcher returning from an elbow injury, he was on a roll (25 K’s/4BB - 3.15 xERA) over his previous four outings before requiring some time off. It is unlikely that the Dodgers would not start him unless he was healthy and ready to go.

The real appeal here, aside from the tag, is to fade Joe Kelly. Kelly's early success has turned some heads but the underlying skills leave much to be desired. His strikeout rate is average at best with 25 in 41 frames. Kelly has a big gap between ERA (2.75) and xERA (4.22) due to an 84% strand rate and mediocre K/BB numbers. Given his low strikeout rate, his walks allowed could become an issue. Kelly was called to fill a hole in the Cardinals’ rotation despite having thrown just 59 innings above high A-ball prior to this season.

Everything about this rookie’s profile suggests he needs more seasoning and it’s only a matter of time until his surface stats regress. This is as good a time as any.

Scott Spreitzer

Minnesota Twins +115

Tough slide for the Chisox, losing five in a row and dropping out of first place in the AL Central. The bats went cold and so did the pitching, for the most part, getting out-scored 30-9 during the skid. Gavin Floyd returns from the DL on Monday and will face an organization that has given him fits. Floyd has been tagged for a 5.87 ERA & 1.56 WHIP in 17 lifetime starts against the Twins. He has made two starts against Minnesota this season, pitching well at Target Field, while getting crushed at home. Francisco Liriano has slammed the door on the Sox this season and he owns a 2.72 ERA & 1.11 WHIP in his last six starts, overall. Liriano has 48 strikeouts in his last 39 2/3 innings of work. The Twins are on a 7-0 run when Liriano faces the White Sox, including a 4-0 run in Chicago. Meanwhile, the Sox are on a 1-8 slide when Floyd faces the Twins. The 7-0 and 8-1 spots combine for a 15-1 mark. I'm backing Minnesota on Monday.

Nelly

Milwaukee Brewers + over Philadelphia Phillies

The Brewers have lost three in a row after an ugly sweep in Cincinnati but the Brewers got 22 hits in the series including ten on Sunday despite scoring only four runs. Milwaukee has scored 4.4 runs per game on the season and while the Brewers have not been a great road team the Phillies are only 18-29 at home on the season, the worst home record in the National League. Philadelphia enters this game off a dramatic win but this team is just 6-14 in the last 20 games and any hope for a great late season run has pretty much fizzled. This is a team that is just 14-29 since early June yet the Phillies continue to be valued like a much stronger team. The Phillies are just 11-20 against left-handed starters this season and Randy Wolf could be in line for a strong outing. Wolf has poor season numbers but he had a strong outing in his last start and he is used to pitching in this park as a former Phillies player. Wolf has pinpoint control with just five walks allowed over his last five starts and his xFIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA as he pitched better than it looks. Wolf faces a Phillies team that has scored three or fewer runs in nine of the last twelve games and has hit .203 vs. left-handed pitching in the last ten games, scoring just 2.8 runs per nine innings vs. southpaws. Roy Halladay commands a big price but this is just his second start back from the DL. He pitched well in his first start back, allowing two runs in five innings but he may be limited to another low pitch count today and that start benefited from being at Dodger Stadium. Halladay did not pitch well early this season and his ERA for the year is 3.96, well above his recent season averages. Philadelphia is 1-4 in Halladay home starts including losses in seven of Halladay's last nine starts overall. The Brewers have won three of the last four meetings in Philadelphia and the Phillies do not deserve this type of pricing putting value on a Brewers team that can hit.

Vegas Experts

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks

A Rocky Road ahead for Colorado and southpaw Sanchez who arrived via trade with Royals. Sanchez heads to the bump 1-10 (5-14) his last nineteen starts. Sanchez was not only a dud with the Royals posting a 1-6 mark over 12 starts (3-9 TSR) the lefty finished 0-4 in his last seven starts with the Giants (2-5 TSR). Add the fact Rockies are 16-29 on the road, 1-7 last eight at Arizona and 5-15 last twenty trips into Phoenix stay home with Arizona. Keep in mind Rockies have been snake bitten five straight times in Phoenix when D-Backs hand the ball to Ian Kennedy.

Cajun Sports

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Diego Padres

Our comp selection takes us to the west coast where we find the Padres visiting the Giants late Monday evening. This big dog qualifies in several league-wide systems and the one we will use here is a very simple but powerful winning situation. We want to Play ON any MLB road underdog of +140 or more when they are coming off a 1-run win in their last game. This system has produced a record of 323-439SU for a profit of +9284 Units since 2004. We recommend a two-star play on the Padres Monday night.

Wunderdog

Cincinnati at Houston
Pick: Houston +150

The Houston Astros lost 106 games a year ago, and they have definitely made some strides this season. While they have been an awful choice on the road, this is a team that has been built up enough to be more than competitive at home where they enter this game at 24-21 for the season, which is better than the Reds' road mark to this point. That certainly points to over-inflated odds here, and the ‘Stros are the ones on the valued side. Wandy Rodriguez is a better than average pitcher, and owns a 3.33 ERA on the season at home. After a big year in 2010, Matt Latos has progressively gotten worse. Houston is 5-2 here behind Rodriguez when facing the Reds in his last seven against them. Play on Houston.