Tony Stoffo
Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8
Free Play - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh With both teams combining to see the under go 10-2 in their last 12 games played, and Samardzija matching up with Bedard in this spot - makes for a highly recommended play on the under here this evening. First off Samardzija in his last 3 starts has really turned things around allowing just 5 runs in 19 innings pitched resulting in a 2.37 ERA and 1.211 WHIP. While Bedard for the Pirates has already shown that the Cubs have difficulty with his stuff - as he shut them down in May throwing 6 scoreless innings. This listed posted total the strong play here. Under is 8-1 in Samardzijas last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Under is 5-1 in Samardzijas last 6 road starts. Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 4-1 in Bedards last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Lenny Del Genio
Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The pesky and surprising Pirates just won't go away in the NL Central and hosting the sorry Cubs to start the week certainly should not signal any kind of downturn. Though they've recently "cleaned things up a bit," the Cubbies remain a money-burning 10-18 vs. lefties this season and draw southpaw Erik Bedard for Monday's series opener. Bedard has pitched well at PNC Park this season w/ a 2.95 ERA in eight starts here. But the real story is how well the Bucs have played as a team at home this season, going 32-14 (20-4 when favored!) after sweeping Miami over the weekend to run their current win streak to five games. Chicago is averaging just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties and is a terrible road team at 14-35 for the year. No need to try anything fancy here or get creative.
David Chan
Cincinnati vs. Houston
Pick: Over
The Reds' Mat Latos (7-3, 4.33 ERA) is set to square off against the Astros' Wandy Rodriguez (7-8, 3.75 ERA) on the mound this evening.
Latos gave up a two-run home run in the first inning to the Diamondbacks last Wednesday, and then one more in the 7-3 loss; in all he'd give up five earned runs off six base hits, including the two long-balls, to go along with two free-passes, while striking out three. Latos is 2-1 with a pedestrian 5.00 ERA on the road this season, having received a ton of support in each of his outings.
Rodriguez has had an up and down year, and is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs in just four frames in his shortest start of the season vs. the Friars last Wednesday. After starting the year 4-4 with a respectable 2.14 ERA, Rodriguez has fallen apart, seeing his ERA rise to 5.65 over his last 10 starts. In fact, the veteran southpaw is averaging just 6.0 K's per nine frames of work, which is his lowest since his rookie campaign.
Latos struggled his last time out, while Rodriguez is the very definition of a "gas-can"; you may want to consider a second look at the "over" in this one!
Sean Murphy
Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Under
The Cubs enter this series having just scored a grand total of one (yes, one) run in their three-game weekend set in St. Louis. In fact, you would have to go back to July 13th to find the last time the Cubbies plated more than five runs in a game. Note that they're averaging just a shade over 2.9 runs per nine innings on the road this season.
The Pirates scored a modest 12 runs in three games against the Marlins over the weekend, but did manage to deliver the sweep thanks to some stellar pitching. They're now allowing just under 2.6 runs per game at home this season, a staggering number indeed. Their pitching staff has posted a 2.33 ERA here in Pittsburgh.
Jeff Samardzija will take the hill for the Cubs on Monday. He's been rounding back into top form lately, allowing just 17 hits and five earned runs while striking out 24 and walking only six over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings of work. His weak overall numbers have everything to do with an ugly stretch that saw him allow 25 earned runs over a four-start period back in June. He's certainly righted the ship since, and should benefit from the Pirates seeing him for the first time (in a starting role) on Monday night.
Eric Bedard will counter for the Pirates. He's coming off a solid outing against the Rockies at Coors Field, allowing only one earned run over 6 2/3 innings. There's no question, he's been the weak link in the Pirates rotation this season, and while he doesn't have my full support in this spot, he should be able to at least keep the struggling Cubs lineup to a relatively low run total, especially when you consider he shut them out over six innings in his lone previous start against them this season. This play actually has more to do with the Buccos bullpen holding down the Cubs in the latter innings, even if Bedard should give up a few early.
The Cubs have quietly been chugging along as one of the best 'under' bets in baseball lately. They've posted a 6-13 o/u mark over their last 19 games. Of course, the Pirates have been a boon for 'under' bettors here at PNC Park all season, recording a 14-30-2 o/u record. Games in this park are averaging just under 6.4 runs. I'm looking for that trend to continue tonight.
Bryan Power
Cincinnati vs. Houston
Pick: Cincinnati
Two teams in the National League Central headed in very opposite directions here to start the week. The Reds are off a three-game sweep of Milwaukee, finishing off an 8-2 home stand and have won 11 of 13 overall. Despite this, they continue to lead the Pirates by just one-half game in the division, so they need to keep winning. Playing the lowly Houston Astros should help them continue to keep the good times rolling.
Houston is having a disastrous July, losing 16 of 18 games overall, including six straight. They've been outscored 50-19 during the six game losing streak! It was not a good sign to see Wandy Rodriguez to allow five runs in just four innings last time out to a very weak-hitting San Diego club. As a team, the Astros are a horrible 7-30 as a money line underdog of +150 or higher.
For the Reds, Mat Latos looks to rebound from his first loss since April 17th. He has a 5-1 team start record lifetime vs. Houston, who is ice cold right now. Look for the Reds to keep winning.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -130
The Washington Nationals are one of the best teams in baseball at 55-39 this season. They've shown no signs of slowing down, either. Washington has been winning behind one of the best starting staffs in the league.
Jordan Zimmerman has quietly put together the best season of his career. The right-hander is 7-6 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in 19 starts, 5-3 with a 2.14 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in nine road starts, and 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three. Zimmerman is also 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts against New York, allowing two earned runs over 18 innings.
The Mets have completely collapsed in the second half of the season. They have lost nine of their last 10 games overall. Chris Young, who is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in eight starts this season, is not the answer to stop this skid tonight. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in his last three starts.
The Nationals are 40-19 in their last 59 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Washington is 5-0 in Zimmermann's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Mets are 0-4 in Young's last 4 home starts. Bet Washington Monday.
Jimmy Boyd
Pittsburgh Pirates -140
The Pirates are showing value at home, where they are 32-14, against a Chicago club that is 14-35 on the road. The Pirates are 16-5 in their last 21 overall, 22-4 in their last 26 games as a favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 versus the Cubs. Chicago's Samardzija has really struggled on the road, as evidenced by his 5.40 ERA away from Wrigley. The Cubs are 1-5 in his last 6 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Pittsburgh's Bedard, meanwhile, has been solid at home (2.95 ERA). He held the Cubs scoreless in 6 innings of work while giving up only 2 hits in a 10-4 victory at home earlier this season. Take Pittsburgh.
MLB Predictions
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +115
They Royals lost two of three to Minnesota over the weekend, and haven't won a series since June 27th. The Royals have gone 3-10 over their last 13 games, and are now just 40-54 on the season. Los Angeles took 2 of 3 against Texas including last night's Sunday Night game 7-4. The Angels are now 52-44 on the season, and 27-19 at home. Bruce Chen will start for Kansas City and he is 7-8 on the season with a 5.57 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .286 opponents batting average. Over his last four starts he has allowed 22 runs and hasn't made it into the 6th inning for a 10.42 ERA (batters hitting .369 against him over that span). On the road his ERA is 7.11 for the season. Lefty C.J. Wilson will look for a bounce back start to improve on his 9-6 record, 2.82 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and .209 opponents batting average. The Royals are 1-4 in Chen's last 5 road starts, and 3-8 in his last 11 starts vs a team with a winning record. The Angels are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs a left handed starter, and are 17-7 in their last 24 games vs a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30. Los Angeles is 8-3 in Wilson's last 11 starts. Los Angeles should get things done tonight and win by a handful of runs going up against Chen who is really struggling as of late.
Atlanta Braves +116
Miami dropped their 5th straight game yesterday as they were swept by Pittsburgh, and are now 44-51 on the season and 24-24 at home. The Braves split a four game series with Washington losing the last two games and are now 52-43 on the year and 28-19 on the road. These two teams have met 5 times this season with Atlanta winning the last 4 games. Southpaw Mike Minor will go for Atlanta tonight and he is 5-6 with a 5.69 ERA. He has pitched better lately with a 2-0 record, 3.63 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over his last three starts. Josh Johnson will pitch for Miami and he is 5-7 on the season with a 4.35 ERA. Over his last three he is 0-2 with a high 7.56 ERA as he has allowed 22 hits over just 16.2 innings of work. The Braves are 10-4 in their last 14 games overall, 8-2 in their last 10 vs NL East divisional opponents, and 11-5 in their last 16 games as a road underdog. The Marlins are just 7-20 in their last 27 games following a loss, and 0-4 in Johnson's last 4 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take the Braves as underdog tonight against a struggling Miami team.
Texas Rangers -121
Betting on Texas at home is always worth a look as they sit at 29-16 at home on the season and 42-18 in their last 60 home games overall. The Rangers dropped 2 of 3 to the Angels on the road over the weekend, but are 56-38 on the season. The Red Sox were swept by the Blue Jays at Fenway over the weekend, including a 15-7 loss yesterday afternoon. The Red Sox fall to last place in the AL East with their 48-48 record. Texas took both meetings between these two teams this season outscoring the Red Sox 24-6. Felix Doubront is 10-4 on the season with a 4.24 ERA. Scott Feldman is just 2-6 with a 6.46 ERA over 10 starts this season but has just a 4.05 ERA and 2-3 record when pitching at home. Note that the Red Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog, 1-4 in their last 5 vs AL West opponents and 3-10 in their last 13 game 1 of a series. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs AL East opponents, 39-13 in their last 52 games following a loss, and 41-18 in their last 59 games as a home favorite.
Tony George
Kansas City / LA Angels Over 7.5
CJ Wilson brings his ERA of over 5 in the last 3 games to the hill tonight for LA while KC's Bruce Chen brings his over 10 ERA in his last 3 to the hill for the hard hitting Angels to tee off on. KC's offense is doing better and is posting up some offense but they cannot keep pace with the amount of runs their starters and bullpen are giving up, and with KC's entire pitching scenario in the tank right now this should easily go over this low posted number.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Boston +125 over TEXAS: Google News Play (11-4 L15) I don't play a lot of dogs, but i am always looking for a good spot to do so and I feel this is the perfect spot. The Sox have missed David Ortiz' bat of late, but that may even out in this series, considering the slump that Hamilton is in of late. Hamilton has some good numbers in this series, batting .381 with 23 RBI's since 2010 vs the Sox, but he is really pressing right now and may not break out vs a hot pitcher in Felix Doubront. Felix has a 2.70 ERA in the month of July and has been solid on the road this year with a 5-1 mark and a 3.09 ERA. Felix is one of the best in league at getting run support (6.83 rpg) and the Sox are 7-1 in his road starts and have given him 6.3 rpg away from home. Boston should break out of their funk some here as they will be facing Scott Feldman, who was 2-5 with a 7.34 ERA in his 8 starts before getting sent to the pen. He also allowed 2 runs (6 Earned) on 10 hits in just 2.2 innings of work in his lone start vs Boston this year. The Sox need this one bad, they have the pitching advantage, Texas is off a tough emotion series vs the Angels and they are home off a long road trip. Add it all up and you get a solid play on the dog in this one.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Chicago +130 over PITTSBURGH: (Added) YCjiou all know how much I hate the Sharp,s but I have to follow them here and even better is that this play is backed by a solid 85% winning situation. When this game came out last night and I looked at the pitching matchup and what the pirates have just come off of I said this play will be making my card today. Jeff S. has been pitching very well for the Cubs of late, with a 1-1 mark and a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has struggled on the road (3-5 with a 5.40 ERA), but in his last 2 road starts he has pitched better with a 2.57 ERA and the Pirates struggle to hit and score at home, hitting just .233 vs righties and scoring just 3.76 rpg at PNC this year. Erik Bedard is off a solid outing in Colorado, but he is still 2-4 with a 5.79 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Cubs offense has put up just 1 run in their last 3 games, but that won't last and I expect them to have good success tonight. The Pirates are off a big 3 game sweep over the Marlins, so they may not be as focused here as they take on the 2nd worst road team in the league. The Cubs played here earlier in the year and were swept, but they played hard in losing 2 of the 3 by 1 run. The lone blowout was when Bedard was on the mound, but that was his first start vs Chicago, so know that advantage is gone for Pittsburgh, while the Cubs get the advantage of Pittsburgh never having seen Jeff S. Look for Chicago to steal game 1 here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2004 Pittsburgh is just 3-17 in game 1 of a home series off a win in which they drew at least 1 walk and were not more than a .250 dog in that win.
Philadelphia/ Milwaukee Over 7.5: Roy Halladay has not been his normal Dominant self this year, with a 3.96 ERA overall. He did come back from the DL to have a solid outing vs the Dodgers, but that was also in a pitcher's park and in his last start here he did allow 5 ER's to Washington. Roy also has a 4.64 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Brewers as a member of the Phils. The Brewers offense struggled in Cincinnati and they score just 3.5 rpg on the road, but they are due to break out and should do just that vs the Phils here, plus the Brewers have scored 4.7 rpg for Randy Wolf on the road. Halladay went just 5 in his last start due to being on a pitch count and if he gets yanked here early then he will hand the ball over to a Phils pen that has struggled at home with a 4.46 ERA. The Phils offense is healthy right now and could have a major breakout tonight vs Randy Wolf. Randy has allowed 4 ER's or more in 4 of his last 5 starts, with a 6.82 ERA over that stretch. He has a 6.86 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP on the road, with his road starts averaging 10.7 rpg. Even if the Brew Crew is held to 3 runs, the Phils should be good for at least 5 of their own. Still I see both teams putting up at least 4 in this one as it easily goes over 7.5.
NY Yanks -157 over SEATTLE: The Yanks are off a 4 game series vs Oakland, in which they were swept. This is one angry bunch and they should bounce back nicely here. Hiroki Kuroda has been pitching very well of late for the Yanks as he is 4-12 with a 3.45 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Yanks are just 3-5 in his road starts overall, but in his last 4 road starts they are 3-1 and he has a 3.37 ERA in those starts. Overall the Yanks have won his last 5 starts. It's just the opposite for Kevin Milwood, as the M's have lost his last 5 starts and he comes in 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has allowed just 2 total ER's in his last 2 starts vs the Yanks, but is still just 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA bin his last 5 starts vs them. The Mariners are the worst scoring home team in the league at 2.86 RPG, while the Yanks are 5th best at scoring on the road (4.83 rpg). The Yanks are still 6 games ahead of Baltimore in the AL East, but don't want to get into a losing habit, so I look for them to take some frustrations out on Seattle tonight. They have the better pitcher and better offense and should get back on track tonight.
POWER ANGELS FOR TONIGHT (4-0 Last 4) (12-8 +1.91 UNITS)
Since 2004 Arizona is 11-0 (8-3 vs the RL) as a 130+ favorite if their starter went at least 8 innings in his last start and they beat a non-div opp by at least 4 runs in that start. Play On Arizona -1.5 (-110) over Colorado
Since 2008 the Giants are 20-5 in the first game of a home series, if they are off a loss as a dog. Play on San Francisco -154 over San Diego
Jeff Alexander
Washington Nationals -130
The Mets have dropped 9 of 10 and figure to be up against it here with the way Zimmerman has been pitching. The Nationals have won 4 of his last 5 starts, during which he has allowed just 3 earned runs in 25 innings of work. The Mets have lost each of Young's last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.62. The Nats have won 10 of their last 13 versus the Mets and 6 of their last 7 in New York. Bet Washington.
Dave Price
San Francisco Giants -153
The Giants get the call as my free play with Vogelsong on the mound. The Giants are 11-2 in his last 13 starts overall and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts. The Padres, on the other hand, are 3-8 in Richard's last 11 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Padres are 6-22 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They have also lost 6 of their last 7 in San Francisco. Bet the Giants.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington -120 over N.Y. METS
There is little appeal in a Mets club that is 1-7 since the break and whose entire pitching staff was rocked over the weekend. That spent and awful pen should most definitely come into play here with Chris Young taking the hill today.
Young is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA since coming off the DL back in early June. His profile is one you want to avoid, as he continues to play with fire. He has an ugly 29%/55% groundball/fly-ball split. He has a low strikeout rate due to a fastball that tops off at 85 MPH. His nine strikeouts in 23 innings during his minor league rehab is further evidence that his previous strikeout levels are unlikely to return. His 5.20 xERA is disconcerting considering that his eight starts have been in pitcher’s parks. The Mets have lost six of his eight starts and this is the third time the Nationals will face him this year.
Jordan Zimmerman is the model of consistency. He’s gone at least six innings in every start this year and has yet to record a poor outing. He has issued 23 walks in 112 innings. His elite skill foundation comes against both LH and RH bats. Stephen Strasburg gets all the glory for the Nats and for good reason but Zimmerman holds the profit.