Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 26,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Florida Marlins
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The Fish open a week long West coast road trip Monday night when they send Ricky Nolasco to the mound at AT&T Park to meet the Giants in San Francisco this evening. Nolasco has cashed in five of his last six team starts, allowing eight walks against 50 strikeouts in this games. He's also 3-0 in his last three road outings and 5-1 in his last six starts during July. With that, look for the Marlins to continue their winning ways here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on on Florida.

MTi Sports
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Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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It certainly was a battle yesterday, but the Phillies eked out a 4-3 win to push their winning streak to four and the Rockies? losing streak to five. Philadelphia is tough to beat in this spot. They are 6-0 at home after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series and 11-0 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base. The Rockies are 0-6 on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and 0-6 on the road when they lost the last two games their starter started. We?ll lay the short price.

Steve Janus

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
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I have the Los Angels Angels beating the Boston Red Sox on Monday.The Angels will start Joel Pineiro, who is 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA at home this season, and the Angels are 9-2 in games Pineiro has started. The Red Sox send Clay Buchholz to the mound, who is 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA this season.However, Buchholz did not pitch well in his first start off the DL, giving up five runs in just four innings of work. No way should the Red Sox be favored in this game. Bet the Angels +103!
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Top Trends For Angels +103

*ANGELS are 15-6 against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
*ANGELS are 11-3 against the money line in home games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
*RED SOX are 13-25 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Tom Freese
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Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Under
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Minnesota starter Francisco Liriano has allowed 2 runs in his last 14.2 innings of work. The lefty is 11-7-1 UNDER in his 19 starts this year. The Twins are 11-5-1 UNDER with Liriano as a road favorite and they are 6-1 UNDER when the total is 7.0 to 8.5. Minnesota 4-1-1 UNDER their last 6 games as favorites. Kansas City starter Zack Greinke has allowed just 8 runs total in his last 3 starts. The Royals are 6-2 UNDER at home when the total is 7.0 to 8.5. Kansas City is 8-3-2 UNDER their last 13 games vs. lefty starters. Greinke is 9-1 UNDER his last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Ross Benjamin
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Mariners vs. White Sox
Play: Under 6.5
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There is good reason this total is so low. I wouldn't be shocked if we see both of these starting pitchers throw a complete game tonight. The Seattle starter Felix Hernandez has absolutely owned the White Sox in his last 3 starts allowing 0 earned runs and 12-hits in 23.0 innings. In his last 8 starts Hernandez has an excellent 1.47 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP. The Mariners are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball and have gone under the total in 7 of their last 8 games. The White Sox starter Danks has been almost as good in his last 3 starts versus the Mariners allowing just 3 earned runs and 13-hits in 23.2 innings. Danks has been terrific in 9 home starts this season posting a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Seattle has gone over the total just 14 of their last 53 road games when Hernandez is their starter. The White Sox have gone over the total in just 4 of their last 21 games versus a starting pitcher with a less than 1.15 WHIP for the season. Play on this game to go under the total of 6.5 as my free selection of the night.

JOEL TYSON

For Monday, take the Yankees-Indians to go over the total.

New York has been rocking the ball of late, and they are on an 8-1-1 over run their last 10 games overall.

The Yankees and Indians have met 4 times already this season, and are 3-0-1 over the total in those 4 games.

Javier Vazquez and Jake Westbrook both sport season ERA's right near 5 runs per game, so I will stick with the trends that point towards an offensive contest, and play the Yankees-Indians over the total tonight.

5♦ OVER

BRETT ATKINS

I am on an 8-4 run with my last 12 free selections and tonight I've got a winner for you on the Brewers as they host the Reds in Cincinnati.

I’ve got to back the hard-hitting Brewers in this one as they should be able to get to Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo. He’s already got a 4.26 ERA this season and the Brewers torched him for nine runs in the first inning last season.

Milwaukee comes in having won four straight and with a pitcher in Randy Wolf who’s had fantastic success against the Reds. Wolf’s teams have won his last five outings against the Reds, including last July when he led the Dodgers to a 12-3 win by allowing just two runs in 7.1 innings.

Cincinnati is just 7-15 against southpaws on the road while the Brewers come in on hot streaks of 10-4 overall, 6-0 at home and 4-1 when Wolf faces a winning team.

I’m backing Milwaukee tonight.

3♦ MILWAUKEE

Bobby Maxwell

I've gotta take a no play on Sunday with the FREE selection as I gave out the Tigers and Jeremy Bonderman but it was for Game 1 and some pitching changes had him in Game 2. So even though the Tigers got the win in the Boderman game, I'll take the no play. Tonight I'm going with the Mariners and playing the plus-money with them on the road in Chicago.

Getting out on the road is probably exactly what this Seattle team needs right now. They open a series in Chicago tonight with Felix Hernandez (7-6, 2.75 ERA) on the hill against the White Sox.

Things got a little heated during the weekend homestand for the Mariners as Chone Figgins went after his manager in dugout dust up. When big league teams hit the road, things tend to calm down and with Hernandez on the hill, look for the Mariners to come out on top tonight.

Hernandez has a 2.95 ERA on the highway and he’s coming off a dominating performance against these White Sox on Tuesday when he blanked them on two hits over eight innings of a 2-1 win, striking out eight and walking none. In fact, he hasn’t allowed a run to the White Sox in two years, covering three starts and 23 innings. Last year he went into Chicago and pitched eight scoreless innings in a 9-1 win, striking out nine and walking one.

John Danks is on the mound for the White Sox tonight and he had a dominating show a week ago against the Mariners, pitching 7.2 innings of shutout baseball in a 4-0 win. Chicago is just 3-5 in his eight career outings against Seattle.

The Mariners are 37-16 when Hernandez faces a winning team, and 18-8 when he starts on the road against a winning club.

Chicago just has no answers for Hernandez and he’ll throw another dominating performance at them tonight. It’ll be a low-scoring game, but look for Seattle to plate a few runs to get the win.

2♦ SEATTLE

JIM FEIST COMP

CINCINNATI REDS / MILWAUKEE BREWERS
PLAY: CINCINNATI REDS

The Reds and Cardinals seem to be switching division leads every other day now. The Reds will try to end the Brewers seven game home winning streak. Surprisingly, Sunday's 4-0 loss to Houston was the club's 12th shutout this season, a league worst. "When we hit, we are very good. But when we don't score, we don't score at all," manager Dusty Baker said. Bronson Arroyo looks to rebound from his worst start of the season as he allowed seven earned runs in 5 1/2 innings to the Nationals. Arroyo is 10-5 on the year with a 4.26 ERA and is 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA in his last four starts at Milwaukee. Brewers' starter Randy Wolf was even worse than Arroyo in his last start, allowing 12 earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings at Pittsburgh. The Reds may be getting some needed help to the lineup as Scott Rolen looks ready to return. I'm taking the Reds here on Monday. Arroyo pitches well against the Brewers and I fully expect a pitcher of his caliber to bounce back after his bad start. Take Cincinnati on Monday.

Karl Garrett

G-Man gave you a Sunday comp play winner on the Cardinals over the Cubs.

For Monday, I am looking for Bronson Arroyo and Randy Wolf to tie one on at Miller Park, and for the Reds-Brewers game to easily stay under the posted total.

Forget each hurlers last start, both Arroyo and Wolf have been able to do damage against the others club of late, and that will be the key to this game holding low tonight.

In Arroyo's last 2 starts against the Brewers, the righty has allowed just 1 earned run over his 14 innings of work, while Wolf has allowed only 8 runs to score in his last 27 innings of work against Cincy which has produced a 3-0 mark.

Going to look for the pitchers to do their thing, and for the hitters to have a rough time of it tonight.

G-Man on the under.

2♦ UNDER

Craig Trapp
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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Really good value on the much better, team and pitcher on Monday. Also looks like Cincy will get back Roland while MIL will be without Hart and Edmonds. Arroyo has been great all year for Cincy and his last two outings vs MIL he has been even better. At MIL he is 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA in his last four starts at Miller Park and posted a 0.64 ERA in his final two overall matchups against the Brewers in 2009. Wolf goes for MIL after what could be called a disappointing season and is coming off an outing where he allowed 12 runs vs PIT of all teams. MIL has been winning by out hitting teams but with Arroyo shutting them down look for CIN to win very easily. On the season CIN is 2-0 winning both at home this year!

SPORTS WAGERS
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Florida +1.22 over SAN FRANCISCO
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First off, the Marlins are much better vs lefties (17-11) than they are vs righties (31-38). They’ll face the misleading numbers of Barry Zito here and while numbers or stats don’t lie, in Zito’s case they do. Zito has had a lot of good games recently and thus the low ERA but a closer look reveals that the only thing you should believe is that “this is still the same Barry Zito”. Zito has pitched very well in five of his last nine starts. He was effective against the Dodgers twice, the Mets, the Blue Jays and Oakland. The Dodgers are batting .225 over its last 12 games and the Mets are batting .211. Against Milwaukee, he allowed just two runs but walked six and surrendered seven hits in 4.2 innings. Against Houston, Cinci and Colorado he was rocked and that’s been his story over the last nine games. Zito has a groundball rate of just 36%, an awfully low number and the reason his ERA is low is because of a lucky strand rate of 74%. His xERA is 4.95 and that means a correction in his actual ERA is forthcoming for sure. Ricky Nolasco is pure quality, end of story. He has 110 K’s and just 25 walks in 124 frames. When he’s on he’s one of the best in the business and lately he’s been on. In fact, Nolasco has pitched at least seven innings or more in five of his last six starts and historically, he’s been wickedly good in the second half. Both these teams are hot (the Marlins have won seven of nine) but we’ll go against the overvalued and very average Zito here plus a tag. Play: Florida +1.22 (Risking 2 units).

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TORONTO –1½ +1.09 over Baltimore
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Huge pitching mismatch sees the low skills of Brad Bergeson going up against the highly skilled Brandon Morrow. Bergeson has allowed 115 hits in 83 frames for a BAA of .327. On the road his BAA is .341. In two starts vs the Jays this year, covering just 10.1 innings, Bergeson has allowed 17 hits, two jacks and nine runs for a BAA of .378 and an ERA of 7.59. Overall his ERA is 6.75 and in six road starts his ERA is 6.82. It doesn’t get better either. This stiff has 28 walks and 34 K’s in 83 innings and why he’s pitching at this level is a mystery because he simply cannot retire nor strike out major league hitters. Meanwhile, Brandon Morrow is 5-1 at home with a 3.27 ERA. He has 119 K’s in 107 innings and struck out eight O’s in seven frames last week in Baltimore. Morrow has electric stuff and facing an Orioles team that has won just 13 of 47 road games should be a breeze. Biggest mismatch on the board and it’s not close. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds +101
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The Reds are showing solid value in the underdog role tonight when you consider that they have won their last 6 games against the Brewers. In addition, Cincy has been stellar in series openers, winning 8 of their last 9 Game 1's. The Reds are also in good hands with Arroyo. They have won 10 of his last 14 starts overall, 11 of his last 13 against the NL Central and 4 straight on the road. The Brewers counter with Wolf, but they are 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Reds at a nice price tonight.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
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Chicago White Sox host the Seattle Mariners tonight at 8:10 PM ET for the first game of the series. The Sportsbooks have this total set at a low 6.5 runs, but that number is not low enough! Here at Vegas Experts, we predict this total to end right under the number at five runs. Hernandez is starting for Seattle and he has a 2.95 ERA and 1.186 WHIP when playing on the road but in his last three starts he has a 1.44 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP. On the other side of tonight’s pitching matchup, Danks has a 2.70 ERA and 0.986 WHIP when playing at home and in his last three starts he has a slightly better 2.38 ERA and 0.838 WHIP. Watch as both of these pitchers have great starts and keep this total way under the number! Play on Seattle at Chicago UNDER!

Play on: The Under