BEN BURNS
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
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At first glance, the price on the Rays may seem a little steep. However, it begins to look a lot more reasonable when considering that the Tigers are just 9-31 (-18.9) the last 40 times that they were road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range AND that the Rays are a lucrative 48-14 (+25.2) the last 62 times that they were home favorites in the -150 to -175 range.
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Garza is off a bad start. However, that was on the road. In his most recent home start, he tossed six shutout innings and allowed only one hit. Including that 4-0 victory, the Rays are 7-2 (+3.1) in his nine home starts. Looking back further and we find Tampa at 14-5 in Garza's last 19 home starts.
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Scherzer is off a strong start. However, that was at home. In his most recent road start, he allowed four runs (on 5 hits and 5 walks) in just five innings, en route to suffering a 8-2 loss. Including that result, he's 1-5 with a 5.61 ERA in nine road starts. The Tigers were a money-burning 1-8 (-8.3) in his nine road starts.
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With the Tigers off a double-header yesterday, consider laying the wood with Garza and the Rays.
Spartan
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CWS (-125) vs SEA
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The White Sox have predictably cooled off since the blazing tear they went on just prior to the all star break. No team could have maintained that kind of run. Now they return home after a long road trip and have the Mariners coming into town and I cannot think of many better clubs to open a home stand against, even with Felix taking the ball tonight. Sox starter John Danks is an impressive 3-0 1.14 in his last four starts against this Seattle club. Pair his success with the inept performance of Seattle on the road this season, a lousy 15-32, it gives me more than enough confidence to suggest a wager on Danks and the Sox tonight at home guys.
JR O'Donnell
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PHI / COL Under 9
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Jr O is going Under Phillies/Rockies early in Phila as the Rockies do not hit the rock well during the day action. Huge public sentiment for the over and we will fire away on the Under , The Rockies are only averaging 3 runs per game the last 10 and those numbers sink even further as the batting average is .246 during the day. It's tough to stand in front of this Phllies team hitting the ball right now , but our camp is on the UNDER 9
Matt Fargo
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Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Seattle Mariners
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Finding value in the moneyline is the biggest aspect of underdog betting with the exception of winning of course. At times, we look for value based on a number of factors and one of the strongest is getting an elite starting pitcher at an underdog price and that is the case with the Mariners tonight. Seattle is a horrible team on the road as it is 15-32 and that is definitely one of the factors in driving this line. We need to take into consideration how important that is and in this case it is little because over a quarter of those wins have come with tonight’s starting pitcher on the mound while only 18 percent of the losses have come with Felix Hernandez pitching. The White Sox are home again following a disappointing roadtrip where they went 4-6 but were able to hold onto first place by a game in the American League Central over the Twins. They have done nothing special at home with their offense especially and tonight looks to be another night of limited production. Hernandez has been outstanding of late as he has tossed eight straight quality outings including last time out against these same White Sox. He retired his final 17 batters and allowed only two balls out of the infield in that span in one of his better games of the season and there have been many. Nine of 10 road starts this season have been quality performances and over the last two years against the White Sox, he has not allowed a run in 23 innings while posting a 27/5 K/BB ratio. John Danks is no slouch for sure and he is another reason the line is what it is. He has a 3.37 ERA on the season including a 2.70 ERA in 10 home starts but the problem is that Chicago is just 5-5 in those games. He pitched a gem against the Mariners last week but he has put up a few really rough outings of late as inconsistency has been the biggest issue. Seattle also falls into a great situation where you play on underdogs of +150 or less with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season but with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games. This situation is 36-14 (72 percent) over the last five seasons. Also the Mariners are 13-3 in Hernandez’ 16 starts when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. 3* Seattle Mariners
John Ryan
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New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
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5* graded play on the Cleveland Indians as they take on the Ny Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 40-31 for just 56.3% winners, BUT has made a whopping 41.3 units sin profits. Play against all favorites in July with a money line of -175 to -250 with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games. This system has averaged a plus 181 DOG and is already 2-0 this July. These are great systems to employ into your handicapping arsenal. It is analogous to playing Black Jack and getting paid $1.81 from every winning $1.00 hand played. Monday is a difficult day for Girardi as he has gone just 9-24 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Monday in all games he has managed since 1997. Indians manger Acta is a solid 15-5 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season in all games he has managed since 1997. Cleveland has really done well of late with the bullpen sporting a 2.95 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP over the past 7 games. They have been very solid in 46 home games posting a 3.01 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP. Vazquez is coming off a poor start allowing 5 ER in 5 innings against Anaheim. H struck out just 1 batter and under scores the fact that he does not have dominating “stuff”. Cleveland is batting 298 over the past 7 games and we strongly believe that they will get to him early and often. Take the Indians.
Rob Vinciletti
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Boston Red Sox vs. LA Angels
Play: Boston Red Sox
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The Redsox fit a solid system tonight plays on road favorites off a road favored loss if they scored 2 or less runs and their opponent scored 4 or less in a road dog loss. This system cashes at 74% long term. The Redsox are 6-1 as a road favorite in this range this season and have won all 4 meetings vs the Angels this season. LA is just 2-7 vs winnin g teams in the second half. In the pitching matchup the home to road era for pitchers Buckholz and Pineiro are just about even. Look for the Redsox to get game one of the series tonight.
EZWINNERS
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Toronto Blue Jays -201
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The Blue Jays starting pitcher Brandon Morrow pitched seven strong innings last Saturday night against Baltimore, allowing two runs off five hits while picking up his sixth win of the year in the 3-2 Toronto win over the Orioles. Toronto manager Cito Gaston pushed back Morrows next start until tonight against these same Orioles in an effort to limit Morrows innings and give him some extra rest. With eight more strikeouts in his last start against the Orioles, Morrow now has 119 strikeouts in nineteen starts this season. Morrow is a power pitcher with a live arm and I expect another solid outing from him tonight. The Orioles send the struggling Brad Bergesen to the mound for this start against the Jays. Burgesen is only 3-8 this season with an ERA of 6.51 and Toronto has feasted on his pitching this season. In two starts against the Blue Jays, Burgesen has allowed seventeen hits and nine earned runs in just ten and 2/3 innings pitched. I expect the Jays to provide Morrow with plenty of run support as Toronto picks up the win. The Orioles are only 3-14 in the last seventeen meetings between these two teams and Baltimore is only 4-17 in Bergesen's last twenty one starts as an underdog. Play on Toronto.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -124
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The White Sox have had Seattle's number. They have won 5 of 6 meetings this season, including all 3 at home. They have won 8 of 9 at home over the last 3 seasons, and going back further, they have taken 23 of their last 30 home meetings with the Mariners. In addition, the White Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter, 11-1 in their last 12 during game 1 of a series and 10-1 in their last 11 games as a home favorite. They are also 8-1 in Danks' last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Mariners are just 6-16 in their last 22 overall, 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series and 1-5 in Hernandez's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Sox at home tonight.
Info Plays
3* on Chicago Cubs -144
Reasons the Cubs win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Any team (CHICAGO CUBS) - NL team with a low on-base percentage (=1.550), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.250 over his last 3 starts. This is a 54-23 ML System hitting 70.1% since 1997.
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2.) Carlos Silva is 9-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 18 starts this season, and he's clearly the better starter in this match-up against Wesley Wright of the Astros. Houston is 3-15 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season. Bet the Cubs on the road Monday.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers +162
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The Tigers are showing excellent value Monday as they travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays in Game 1 of this series. Max Scherzer has been solid this season at 7-7 with a 4.43 ERA recording 100 strikeouts in 105.2 innnings. Scherzer is 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA over his last 6 starts. During that time, he has allowed 1 earned run or less 5 times. This is a red hot starter right now and we're getting him at a great price tonight.
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Matt Garza has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 9 of his last 10 starts. Garza has never beaten the Tigers, going 0-4 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in 6 career starts vs. Detroit. Given the numbers of these starting pitchers alone makes this a very enticing play tonight. Garza is 4-10 against AL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 17-8 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. American League East opponents. Bet the Tigers Monday.
Gamblers World
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Chicago -150
The Cubs will pin their hopes on the pitching of righthander Carlos Silva in this game. Silva has a 9-4 record and a 3.86 ERA this season. Starting this game for the Astros will be Wesley Wright. The lefthander has a 1.93 ERA to go along with a 0-0 record this season. The Cubs were defeated 4-3 by the Cardinals last time out, as +105 underdogs. That game's seven runs made it OVER the posted over/under (6.5) set by sportsbooks. Brian Schlitter gave up the winning run and was saddled with the Cubs loss. Wandy Rodriguez combined on a three-hit shutout on Sunday, and the Astros avoided a three-game sweep with a 4-0 win over the Reds. The Astros won the game as +115 underdogs, while the teams played UNDER the posted over/under (8) set by sportsbooks. Hunter Pence and Chris Johnson hit solo home runs for the Astros. Rodriguez improved to 8-11 with the win. Take the Cubby's tonight
LARRY NESS
CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs SEATTLE MARINERS
PICKS: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
The White Sox used a 25-5 run right before the break to move into first place (by a half-game!) in the AL Central for the first time all season. Chicago returned from the break and went on a 10-game road trip. While the Sox were just 4-6 on their road trip, they return home with a one-game lead over the Twins and a two-game lead over the Tigers (no harm, no foul!). Up first is the Mariners, who have the AL's second-worst road record (15-32). Seattle is last in the majors in batting (.235), runs scored (330 / 3.33 RPG) and HRs (62). The Mariners will go up against lefty John Danks and the Mariners are a woeful 10-21 vs left-handers this season, averaging a measly 3.3 RPG. It shouldn't inspire confidence in Seattle that after losing his first four career starts vs the Mariners, Danks is 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA in his last four starts vs them! Felix Hernandez is always a tough mound opponent (he owns a 2.75 ERA in 2010) but playing for Seattle is not good for one's W-L record and Hernandez is just 7-6 on the season with the Mariners going 10-11 in his 21 starts (including 4-6 on the road). Seattle is 8-27 as a road underdog in 2010, including 1-9 as a road dog of less than minus-$1.25 (like here!). The White Sox are 14-1 at U.S. Cellular Field since June 9 and why would I want to buck that here?
Doug Upstone
New York Yankees -176
Play On road favorites with a money line of -125 or more like the New York Yankees, after seven or more consecutive July home games. This system is 56-15 the past 13 seasons, 78.9 percent. This system also has run line potential since the winning margin has been 2.5 runs per game.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Angels +100
We'll take the Angels as a nice home underdog Monday against the struggling, banged-up Boston Red Sox. Joel Pineiro suffered his first loss since June 1 to the Yankees last time out, but had gone 7-0 with a 2.51 ERA over his previous 8 starts. Getting rocked by the Yankees is acceptable, and Pineiro comes into this game with a 1.86 ERA in his last 3 starts against Boston. Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz is 2-2 with a 6.35 ERA in four career starts against Los Angeles. The Angels have lost all 4 meetings with Boston this season, but it's payback time tonight as the Angels are a superb 49-24 (+26.3 Units) against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent over the last 3 seasons. Take Los Angeles on the Money Line.
Dan Bebe
SEA (+116) vs CWS
I must be relatively brief with this writeup, as the Summer Sizzler essay just took most of the early afternoon, but I definitely want to stress how much I like this play, as well!
King Felix is the best pitcher in baseball, right now, and on top of that, he's pissed. Felix got pulled after 8 innings in his last start with a pitch count in the 90's, and he's been chomping at the bit to get back out there and dominate for 9 (or more?) innings for the last 5 days!
But, to me, this play isn't about the starters, since John Danks is extremely solid, as well, and is coming off 2-hitting these very same Mariners in Seattle.
This game is about momentum and confidence, and right now, the Mariners, believe it or not, have the huge edge in those realms.
And, as is the case with many bad teams, the stress can become a bit overwhelming in a long baseball season, and only when that team "lets it out" can they go back to playing decent baseball, and that finally happened in Seattle.
A few short days ago, Chone Figgins failed to cut off a throw from the outfield, instead letting the ball trickle through the infield and an extra run to score. That half-inning break, Figgins and Manager Don Wakamatsu had words, and Jose Lopez also got involved in what never amounted to much, but that little flare-up has changed the way this club is playing baseball. They're fighting to the last out, they won the final two games of their weekend series with the Red Sox, and now get to tackle the White Sox (this time on the road) for the second time in a week.
The first time they played Chicago, the Mariners scored 3 runs in the entire series -- you don't think this team is ready to erase that ugly memory, and now that the pressure is, more or less, off, the Mariners, in my opinion, are poised to be a real pain in the butt for teams that actually NEED to win games.
I like the underdog price here in a low-total game, and with Felix Hernandez pitching like his competition should be in double-A, we've got a great shot to win this one with 3 runs.