SPORTS ADVISORS
L.A. Dodgers (62-36) at St. Louis (53-48)
The Dodgers take baseball’s best record on the road for the first time in the second half as they send lefty Randy Wolf (5-4, 3.45 ERA) to the mound to face Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter (8-3, 2.26) in the first of four at Busch Stadium.
Los Angeles has won six of its last eight but fell to the Marlins on Sunday, 8-6. The Dodgers are on positive runs of 5-0 against the N.L. Central, 5-1 on Mondays, 7-2 in series openers, 5-2 on the road and 35-17 against right-handed starters.
The Cardinals lost two of three in Philly over the weekend, falling 14-6 on Saturday and 9-2 on Sunday. They are just 3-8 in their last 11 against southpaws. However they are 6-1 in their last seven series openers and 4-1 against N.L. West squads. Also, St. Louis has owned Los Angeles in recent years, going 41-20 in the last 61 meetings overall and 24-8 in the last 32 at Busch Stadium.
Wolf has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, including Tuesday when he held the Reds to two runs in 7 1/3 innings of a 12-3 win in Los Angeles. The veteran lefty is a solid 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA on the road and gave up just two runs in 6 1/3 innings last time out on the highway, an 11-2 win over the Mets. With Wolf on the hill, the Dodgers are on runs of 10-4 overall, 7-2 in series openers, 8-2 against the N.L. Central and 4-0 on the road against winning teams.
Carpenter has been outstanding in his last four starts, going 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA as he’s allowed a total of six runs in 29 innings, including eight innings of shutout baseball against the Diamondbacks in his most recent home start. Including that victory, Carpenter is 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA in five outings at Busch Stadium. With Carpenter pitching, St. Louis is on positive streaks of 82-35 overall, 43-14 at home, 31-9 in series openers, 20-6 against the N.L. West and 4-0 lifetime against L.A.
Wolf is 3-4 with a 3.70 ERA in nine career starts versus the Redbirds, while Carpenter is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA against the Dodgers, including a no-decision last year when he scattered three hits in five scoreless innings, with St. Louis winning 6-4 in 11 innings.
The Dodgers are on “over” runs of 9-2 on the road, 11-5 against right-handed starters and 5-3 with Wolf working on the highway. With Carpenter on the hill, St. Louis is on “under” tears of 38-18-1 at home and 8-3-1 in series openers, while as a team, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 8-3 overall, 8-2 against southpaws, 4-0 in series openers, 5-0 at home and 5-0 against the N.L. West. Finally, the under has been the play in six of the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
N.Y. Yankees (60-38) at Tampa Bay (54-45)
The streaking Yankees head to Florida to open a three-game set against the Rays with right-hander A.J. Burnett (9-4, 3.74 ERA) on the mound opposite Tampa Bay righty James Shields (6-6, 3.70) at Tropicana Field.
New York capped a 9-1 homestand with Sunday’s 7-5 victory over the A’s. The Yankees have catapulted themselves into first place in the A.L. East by winning 45 of their last 66 overall. They are also on runs of 8-3 on the road, 14-2 against right-handed starters, 7-1 in series openers, 6-1 against A.L. East foes and 15-5 against teams with winning records.
Tampa took two of three in Toronto over the weekend, but lost Sunday 5-1. Despite that setback, the Rays carry several positive streaks into this series, including 88-35 at home, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 4-1 in series openers, 65-20 at home against right-handers and 19-7 at home against opponents with a winning road record.
These rivals have split eight meetings so far this year, with the road team winning five of the last seven.
Burnett is 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 outings, and he’s turned in at least six innings in 14 of his last 15 trips to the hill. The Yankees have won five straight and eight of 10 behind Burnett, and the veteran right-hander is 5-3 with a 3.81 ERA in his nine road starts.
Burnett is 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 18 career starts against Tampa Bay, including 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA in two contests this year. However, the Rays are 6-2 the last eight times they’ve seen Burnett going back to his days with Toronto.
Shields pitched well in Chicago on Wednesday, giving up two runs in 6 2/3 innings, but his bullpen couldn’t protect a 3-1 lead and Tampa Bay fell 4-3 to the White Sox. Still the Rays are on streaks behind Shields of 27-9 at home, 4-1 in series openers, 4-1 on Monday and 8-2 when pitching after a Rays loss.
The Rays are just 1-7 in Shields’ last eight starts against the Yankees, but the win came in September last season when the right-hander blanked them on five hits over eight innings in a 7-1 road victory. Prior to that triumph, Shields had been 1-5 with a 6.86 ERA in his first seven career starts versus New York.
With Burnett on the hill, the Yankees are on “under” runs of 6-0 overall, 6-1 in series openers, 5-0 against the A.L. East and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. As a team, New York has topped the total in four straight on the road, but stayed under the number in eight of 12 against the A.L. East and four straight against right-handed starters.
With Shields pitching, the Rays have stayed low in eight of 11 overall, six of his last eight at home and eight of his last 10 against the A.L. East. As a team, Tampa is on “under” runs of 8-1 overall, 6-1 in series openers, 9-2 against the A.L. East and 24-6-1 against right-handed starters.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over has been the play in five of the last six clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to bounce back from yesterday's defeat in Toronto and build on their 8-2 record in James Shields' last 10 starts after a loss in the previous game. Tampa Bay is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105).
Game 951-952: San Diego at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Geer) 13.324; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.381
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-160); Under
Game 953-954: Colorado at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 16.019; NY Mets (Perez) 15.552
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-155); Over
Game 955-956: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 13.029; Milwaukee (Suppan) 14.910
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-160); Over
Game 957-958: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.209; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.367
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-145); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 15.373; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.020
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+160); Under
Game 961-962: Philadelphia at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 16.768; Arizona (Garland) 15.869
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Over
Game 963-964: Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.873; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.758
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-235); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-235); Over
Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.111; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.562
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Under
Game 967-968: Kansas City at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 13.956; Baltimore (Hill) 15.322
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-145); Under
Game 969-970: Oakland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.971; Boston (Beckett) 14.766
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-310); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+275); Under
Game 971-972: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 15.794; Texas (Hunter) 14.722
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+130); Under
Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.502; Minnesota (Perkins) 16.867
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Over
Game 975-976: Cleveland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Pavano) 16.353; LA Angels (Saunders) 17.510
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Over
Game 977-978: Toronto at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 14.218; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-170); Over
Cajun Sports
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Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
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Rangers Ballpark in Arlington Texas will be the site of a three-game set between the host Texas Rangers and the visiting Detroit Tigers. Texas has been solid at home posting a record of 32-19 (+10.3) averaging 5.4 runs per game. The Tigers are 21-29 (-7.4) when playing away from home averaging 4.0 runs per game and 8-26 (-17.1) on the road playing against a winning team during the second half of the season. Detroit is 8-20 (-10.5) as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season and 5-16 (-9.9) as a road underdog in the same price range. Texas will send right-hander Tommy Hunter to the bump with his 2-1 record and ERA of 2.17. Over his last three starts he is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.04. The Tigers will send Armando Galarraga to the mound with his 5-8 record and ERA of 4.82 on the season. Galarraga is 2-11 (10.7) when he takes the hill under the lights and 1-7 his last 8 starts as an underdog. Galarraga has struggled his last three outings going 0-1 with an ERA of 2.66 and the Tigers going 0-3 (-3.6) behind him over that span. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rangers win tonight over the Tigers by 1.3 runs and our Math Model also favors the host by 0.87 runs. We will back the Rangers here as they grab game one on Monday night in Arlington.
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Graded Selection: 2* Texas Rangers 5 Detroit Tigers 4
Craig Trapp
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Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
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This line is already moved up 20 pts so make sure you lock it in quick. The Cubs are trying to win there 5th in a row whereas HOU is trying to avoid a three game losing streak. CHC turn to ace Zambrano who has been very good verse HOU this year going 1-0 in two starts with a 1.29 ERA. Big Z has won three games in a row and looks to have regained his form since early season struggles. HOU will counter with there top pitcher this year Rodriguez who has been great as of late. He has a 2.72 ERA on the season but struggles a little on road with a record of only 5-4. Look for this to be pitchers duel early. As this games moves into the HOU bullpen in the 6th or 7th inning look for CHC to take advantage and win late. HOU is struggling at the plate right now losing two to the pitiful banged up Mets. CHC pull away late. SCORE CHC 4 - HOU 1
Alex Smart
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
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The Detroit Tigers played last night and looked asleep at the wheel in a 5-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Now after traveling half way across the country to Texas to play the Rangers in Arlington, I'm betting they stay in a state of slumber.
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The Rangers starting pitcher Tommy Hunter (2-1, 2.17 ERA) is currently in top form and is off six strong innings where he allowed one earned run on Tuesday against the Red Sox for his second Major League win. It was his third quality start of the season. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA over his last four starts to lower his ERA to 2.16 . The young righty has been his best at home this season where he owns a 2.74 ERA with a 2-1 record . More of the same good work is on tonights agenda vs a Tigers team that is hitting just .241 in this L/7 games and has batted well below the Mendoza line on the road this year.
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Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Armondo Galarraga (5-8, 4.82 ERA) has been a fairly consistent cog in his teams pitching rotation, this season, but despite of some recent top notch efforts has still had a hard time securing wins because of his teams lack of run support. Galarraga's team is just 2-11 in night games this season, where he has been at his worst this season as is evident by a bloated 5.24 ERA, which is not a good omen vs a Texas team that plays their best at home behind a consistent offense that has averaged 5.4 RPG via a .271 BA.
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Final notes & Key Trends: Detroit is 2-12 vs. strong base running teams like the Rangers averaging 0.85 or more stolen bases per game over the last few seasons. The Tigers are 5-16 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.Tigers are 0-8 in Galarragas last 8 starts as a road underdog.Rangers are 21-9 in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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Play on the Texas Rangers
LT Profits
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
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Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners has blossomed into one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this year, while Ricky Romero of the Toronto Blue Jays is better than his last two outings and should bounce back vs. a struggling Seattle lineup.
Hernandez made his first All-Star team this season, and deservedly so, as he is 11-3 with a sparkling 2.45 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, figures that are even better considering he is in the American League. King Felix has been remarkably consistent, as he has impressively reeled off 11 consecutive Quality Starts and he has 16 such outings out of 20 total starts this year. The last time he faced the Jays, he allowed just one unearned run and four hits in eight innings last June.
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Now Romero has allowed exactly four runs while lasting less that six innings in each of his last two outings, but he is still 8-4 with a fine 3.44 ERA and 1.36 ERA. He had tossed eight straight Quality Starts prior to those last two appearances, and he has 11 such efforts in 15 appearances this season. Facing the Mariners could be the perfect cure for Romero here, as they are batting just .234 as a team over the last 10 games while averaging a paltry 3.20 runs per game.
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The Blue Jays are not exactly scorching the ball themselves lately, so take the Under in Seattle tonight.
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Pick: Blue Jays/Mariners Under 7.5
Red Dog Sports
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New York at Tampa Bay
Play: Under 9 runs
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Play the Yankees and Rangers to go under the total. AJ Burnett and James Shields have combined for 13 overs and 25 unders this year. The Yanks have 7 unders, 1 under and a push in their last 9 games and Tampa Bay has 7 unders and an under in their last 8 overall. Look for an under on Monday night!
Marc Lawrence
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Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Washington Nationals
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The Nationals and Brewers open a four-game series when Craig Stammen matches serves with Jeff Suppan in Milwaukee this evening. Stammen enters tonight's game in fine current form, sporting a 1.98 ERA in his last four road starts. On the other hand, Suppan is just 1-5 in his last six team starts, while issuing 17 walks against 15 strikeouts. With that, look for Suppan to fall to 1-5 in his last six start in July tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
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Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Over
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The over is 3-0-2 in the Indians last 5 games overall. In their last 7 road games the over is 4-1-2. The over is 7-1-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. In their last 37 games as a road dog the over is 25-10-2. The Indians have played the over in 6 of Pavano's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 18-5-1 in the Angels last 24 home games. Their last 4 home games as a favorite have played over the total. In their last 31 games overall as a favorite the over is 23-6-2. Saunders last 5 home starts have played over the total. The over is 10-1 in his last 11 starts overall. Play the over.
Bob Harvey
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Over 10
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The reigning World Series champions are tearing the cover off the ball right now. The Phillies are hitting .297 over their past 17 games and averaging 7.1 runs per game during that stretch. Sunday, The Phils put on another power display hitting, four two-run homers in a lopsided win over the Cardinals, The big flies from Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez gave Philadelphia a NL leading 138 home runs.
Ibanez has four homers and 13 RBIs in 10 games since the All-Star break. Howard is batting .381 with four homers and 12 RBIs in the last 12 while Rollins has hit .344. Those big numbers have helped the Phillies win 15 of their last 17 games. Philadelphia is now third in the majors in runs scored and homers and second in OPS.
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The Diamondbacks are also heating up offensively. The Snakes have hit .305 over their last seven games and have scored a total of 45 runs. However they’ll need a solid effort from Jon Garland to keep them in the game against the high octane Philadelphia offense. Garland is 5-9 with a 4.41. He’s gotten three runs or less of run support in 11 of his 12 starts and has a 1-7 record to show for it. Garland has faced Philadelphia twice in his career and is 0-1 with an ERA of 9.90. Garland though has been tough in his last three starts overall posting a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 2.57.
The Phillies will counter with Jamie Moyer who is 9-7 with a high 5.65 ERA. Moyer, unlike Garland, has benefited from plenty of run support but could easily be in double-digits in the loss department. The 46-year old Moyer is 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA in three starts in Arizona. However he’s been a gopher ball machine this season allowing 21 homeruns in just over 106 innings. That problem could be even more magnified at hitter friendly Chase Field.
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The Diamondbacks have been cashing the OVER with regularity this season posting a record of 32-19-1. The Diamondbacks bullpen is ranked 26th in the league and their 30th ranked defense brings back memories of that old Michael Jackson joke. What do Michael Jackson and the Diamondbacks have in common? They both wear a glove for no apparent reason.
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All attempts at comedy aside, the stats and trends point to an OVER play tonight with a lean towards Philadelphia.
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees at TAMPA BAY
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I've hit three of my last four FREE selections and I've got another winner for you here as I go with Tampa Bay at home to take care of the Yankees.
Home underdog is the play in this one as Tampa has been very good at home the last few seasons and will back James Shields (6-6, 3.70) with some run support tonight.
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The Rays are on runs of 88-35 at home, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 4-1 in series openers and 65-20 at home against right handed starters, plus 19-7 at home against teams with winning records.
With Shields on the hill, they are on streaks of 27-9 in front of the home crowd, 21-6 when he faces a winning team, 4-1 in series openers, 4-1 on Mondays and 8-2 when he takes the hill after the Rays have lost a game.
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Last time Shields saw the Yankees was in September last season and he blanked them on five hits over eight innings of a 7-1 Tampa victory.
A.J. Burnett (9-4, 3.74 ERA) goes for New York and he's struggled against the Rays. With the Blue Jays or Yankees, his teams are just 2-6 the last eight times he's faced Tampa.
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The crowd will be pumped to get the Yankees in there and look for Tampa to feed off that for this one. Play the Rays in this one.
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4♦ TAMPA BAY
Dominic Fazzini
Oakland at BOSTON
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Josh Beckett (11-4, 3.42 ERA) has been unbeatable at Fenway Park this year.
The Red Sox ace is 6-0 with a 2.44 ERA in nine starts, and he has been getting stronger as the season has progressed.
Beckett is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA in four July starts, and allowed four runs and seven hits in eight innings Tuesday at Texas.
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He will be opposed by Athletics rookie Trevor Cahill (6-8, 4.50), who gave up one run and six hits in seven innings Wednesday against Minnesota in his last outing.
Boston is 33-15 at home this season, and swept Oakland at Fenway last August. The Red Sox also won two of three against the A’s earlier this month, including a victory over Cahill, who allowed four runs and four hits in 5 1/3 innings in taking the loss.
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The A’s are 8-22 in their last 30 games in Boston, and 1-4 in Cahill’s last five road starts, and I don’t see them getting the job done today. In fact, I don’t think it’s even going to be close. Take the Red Sox on the run line.
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3♦ BOSTON -1 1/2
Matt Rivers
For Monday take a stab with the Padres at the Great American Ballpark.
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As most of you would know I 100% think that the San Diego Padres are beyond terrible. The Friars offense is by far the worst in the league and the team may very well end up with the worst record in baseball when all is said and done. They just lost the series in Washington and have absolutely nothing going for them at all this season.
With the above said the Reds are mediocre at the very very best and with a fairly disappointing Homer Bailey on the hill are just laying too much in this spot no matter how bad their opponent is. Bailey may have more stuff than Josh Geer as the San Diego hurler ain't exactly Cy Young but Bailey has not come close to living up to the hype he had breaking in a few seasons ago and right now is not very good.
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Adrian Gonzalez was given the day off yesterday, in terms of starting that is as he did pinch hit, and may be a little fresher today. There isn't much else at all on this squad but with Jay Bruce hurt Cincinnati has pretty much one power source only themselves in Joey Votto.
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We probably won't win this game as I really don't anticipate the young and fairly poor Friars winning many games but this price is just too much to pass up as the Reds are not worthy of being such a chalk, period.
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1♦ Padres
JIM FEIST
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HOUSTON ASTROS / CHICAGO CUBS
Take UNDER
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Always a risky proposition taking a total at Wrigley with tricky wind situations. However, the proper pitching matchup can go a long way to countering the wind. That's just what we get here today with Wandy Rodriguez on the hill for the Astros and Carlos Zambrano for the the Cubs. First off, the Cubs have been an anemic hitting club most of the season. With the exceptions of Home Runs, the Cubs are below league average in most other offensive categories. Rodriguez has been red-hot of late, going 3-0 his last three starts with a 0.41 EA. He's faced the Cubs twice this year and while he doesn't have a decision, he's got a nifty 1.38 ERA. Zambrano is also on a heater, going 3-0 his last three starts with a 3.57 ERA. He also has a excellent lifetime mark against the Astros with a 13-7 record and 2.59 ERA. Two good pitchers, two sub-par hitting clubs. Under looks like the way to go in this contest on Monday.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners were just swept by the lowly Cleveland Indians at Safeco Field and begin a three-game series against Toronto tonight. Seattle has won five of six meetings this season with the Blue Jays. They will have their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound. They have won eight starts in a row with him and 10 of his last 11 starts. Hernandez has a 15-5 TSR this season with a 2.45 ERA. Toronto is just 4-12 after allowing one run or less in their last game. Go with Seattle.
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Play on: Seattle