Dennis Macklin
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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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Jamie Moyer just keeps on getting on. Despite an ERA of near 5.00, he's 5-1 in L6 but getting plenty of support from big Philly bats. Key here is that he's pitched much better on the road (2.50 L3). After Haren, John Garland is as good as gets for Arizona and the snakes just don't have the lineup to trade runs with the World Champs. Phils worth a flyer at a not too expensive price.
Wunderdog
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +1½
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If your going to go against a pitcher the quality of Felix Hernandez, you better have a pitcher that can keep your team in the game, and Ricky Romero has been that pitcher for the Blue Jays. He has worked them to a 7-1 mark when he is on four day's rest, and led them to wins in his last four outings as an underdog. The Mariners are not a big offensive team, and rely on pitching to win. They have played in more one-run games than any other AL team with 36. The 23 one-run wins means that this 51-47 team is just 28-70 to a would be -1.5 runline. That puts added value on the Jays here, who I will back on the runline.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -150
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Rich Hill has had his share of struggles for the O's this season, but he has always received great run support. In fact, the O's are 8-4 in his starts this season and a perfect 4-0 in his home starts. But it is no secret that Hill is on the hot seat in Baltimore and I expect him to turn in one of his best outings of the season tonight against the lowly Royals. The Royals have dropped 11 of their last 12 games and they send a starting pitcher to the hill in Bruce Chen that has not recorded a Major League win since 2005. Chen is 0-5 with an ERA of 6.84 in 5 starts this season and is 0-3 with an ERA of 9.00 on the road. The Royals are just 8-21 in the last 29 meetings in Baltimore and I'll fade them for a unit here.
Glenn McGrew
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Phillies at D-Backs
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Such a huge difference in offensive talent. The Philadelphia offense is No. 1 in the NL. Chase Utley hit the first two-run shot, Ryan Howard nearly cleared two center field walls with his mammoth blast and Jimmy Rollins joined the fun when he went deep and Raul Ibanez capped the four-homer outburst with a two-run blast in a 9-2 rout of St. Louis yesterday. Starter Jamie Moyer is 5-2 on the road and the team is 5-1 his last 6 ! starts. Arizona has a weak offense and starter Jon Garland (5-9) has been very hittable, plus he has a 9.90 ERA against Philadelphia.
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Play the Phillies.
BIG AL
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Selection: PHILLIES
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At 9:40pm our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. 46-year-old southpaw Jamie Moyer has had a lot of seasons in the Major League, but none quite like the roller-coaster ride that he is on in 2009 so far. Moyer's last eight starts are a perfect example of this as the veteran has had a pattern of a quality start followed by a clunker in each of those. Last time out was one of the bad Moyer outings as he was drilled by the Cubs at home, but in the start before that he went on the road and completely dominated the Marlins with seven near-perfect innings. In fact it's been mostly good news for the Phils when Moyer starts regardless of how he pitches as they have won six of those last eight starts. The situation has been almost the exact opposite for D-Backs veteran righthander Jon Garland. Despite pitching fairly well in most of his recent starts, he gets very little run support and as a result his team has won only two of his last 12 starts heading back to May 24. Despite having more innings than Moyer, Garland has fewer strikeouts and more walks and his 55 strikeouts in 122 innings is one of the lowest strikeout ratios of any starter in the league. In two career starts against the Phils, Garland is 0-1 with a 9.90 ERA. Despite playing much better at home, which was their Achilles' heel in the first half of the season, the Phils still have a much better record on the road this season at 29-15 (vs. 26-25 at Citizens Bank Park). Take the Phillies.
Jeff Benton
Colorado at N.Y. METS +145
The free-play run is now at 14-6 – including 5-1 with the last six – after Sunday’s ridiculously easy winner on the Phillies on the run line over the Cardinals. For Monday, we’ll take the plus money with the Mets at home against Colorado.
Obviously, the Rockies (36-16 last 52 overall; 16-5 last 21 on the road) are playing much better baseball than the freefalling Mets (9-17 last 26 overall; 3-6 last nine at home). And without question I trust Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez (3.85 ERA) more than I do the Mets’ Oliver Perez (7.68 ERA). But that doesn’t mean this line isn’t out of whack.
For one thing, Colorado has never enjoyed its trips to New York, losing 22 of its last 27 games in old Shea Stadium. Also, as good as Jimenez has been for most of this season, it’s not like the Rockies have totally taken advantage of it. They’re just 8-12 in his 20 starts (2-4 in the last six) and they’re 3-8 in his 11 road starts. Going back to last year, Colorado has lost 22 of Jimenez’s last 30 road outings.
Meanwhile, Perez has at least been respectable since returning to New York’s rotation, posting a 4.76 ERA in three starts, going 5, 6 and 6 innings in those three contests. And last year when Perez faced Colorado at home, he led the Mets to a 2-1 victory, allowing just one run on two hits in six innings. One more stat of note: Colorado has NOT hit left-handed pitching at all on the road this year, posting a scant .205 team average. That’s dreadful!
Finally, the Mets – and in particular their anemic offense – showed a little bit of life at the tail end of a brutal 10-game, post-All-Star break road trip, cooling off the previously hot Astros with blowout wins on Saturday (10-3) and Sunday (8-3). (The 18 runs were only two runs fewer than they had scored in the first EIGHT games of their road trip.) Simply put, I agree that Colorado should be favored in this game, but NOT at this price. So we’ll make a solid value play and take the plus money with a team that should be quite happy to finally be back at home (where it is still 25-20 on the season).
3♦ N.Y. METS
Drew Gordon
Detroit +130 at TEXAS
Now on a 33-18 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including Blue Jays over the Rays 5-1 Sunday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Detroit/Texas match up...
So the Tigers have won ALL six meetings against the Rangers this season, and now all of a sudden, they find themsleves considerable dogs in this spot? Look guys, I know full well Tommy Hunter has been pitching well of late, but let's not get carried away, he's still wet-behind-the-ears, and we all remember his 16.36 ERA on the season last year. Point being, paying this kind of price to back Hunter is simply ridiculous!
On the flip side, Armando Galarraga has not only been solid of late, going 1-1 with a rock-solid 2.36 ERA over his last 4 starts, but he's also been great vs the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in 2 career starts. That includes his first start of the season, where he allowed 1 run on 5 hits over 7 innings (with 8 Ks) back on April 10th! Rangers may be hot, but Galarraga has proven he can shut them down when called upon.
Finally, its no secret the Rangers offense has been sputtering a bit of late, and they can thank their pitching for keeping them competitive. Same goes for the Tigers, but in this case, you give the edge to Detroit, as Galarraga has owned this Rangers offense already once this season. Tigers righty seems to always bring his "A" game against his former team, and I suspect more of the same in this one. Now let's go grab that plus money with the Tigers on the road tonight!
Take Detroit behind Galarraga over Texas and Hunter in this MLB match up.
2♦ DETROIT
Larry Ness
ANA (-150) vs CLE
The Angels lost 10-1 on Sunday, ending their eight-game winning streak. However, the Angels remain an impressive 12-2 over their last 14 games (have outscored opponents 101-69), which coincides with the team placing Vladimir Guerrero (strained knee) and Torii Hunter (strained adductor) on the DL back on July 10 (go figure?). The Indians enter on a four-game winning streak, after hitting four HRs in Sunday's 12-3 win at Seattle. The Indians swept a three-game series from the Mariners this weekend, scoring 31 runs on 39 hits (11 of which were HRs). Despite the "mini-streak" the Indians are just 41-58, better than only KC in the AL. That includes a 19-31 record on the road. Carl Pavano gets the start for Cleveland and Joe Saunders for the Angels. Most will remember Pavano for his 'live' arm with the Expos and Marlins. He used his ONE outstanding year (he was 18-8 for Florida in 2004) to get a HUGE free agent deal with the Yanks. However, he was never healthy, making only 26 starts from 2005-08 (missed the entire 2006 season) and going 9-8 with a 5.81 in his four years in The Bronx. After missing all of 2006, he made just nine starts in 2007 and 2008, pitching 45.2 innings. He's 8-8 with a 5.48 ERA so far this year. He was 0-3 with an 8.85 ERA in his final four starts of June but Pavano went 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two July starts prior to the break. Manager Eric Wedge decided to skip over Pavano right after the break in order to give the 33-year-old some extra rest. He was hoping that the extra rest after the All-Star break would help but last Wednesday Pavano was awful, allowing seven ERs over 4.2 innings in a 10-6 loss at Toronto. Let's note that the Angels are second in the majors in runs scored with 533 (5.49 per), while Cleveland owns the worst ERA in baseball at 5.21 (not a good combo for Cleveland fans). LA may need to score a lot of runs tonight, as Saunders is looking to snap a five-start winless streak in which he is 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA (team is 3-2). I'm a big Saunders fan and with good reason. He was shuttled between the majors and minors in both 2006 and 2007, yet was able to go 15-8 with the Angels winning 21 of his 31 starts. He was a regular part of the rotation all of 2008, going 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA, as the Angels went 23-8 in his starts (at plus-$1,268 vs the moneyline, he ranked 6th among all pitchers). Saunders was the team's Opening Day starter in 2009, although this year (so far) has been a disappointment. He is 8-6 with a 4.94 ERA on the year (team is 12-8 in his starts) but let's note that he has gone six straight starts without a win only once before in his career (from Aug 4-Sept 2, 2008). With all his problems, most of Saunders' woes have come on the road this year (team is 5-5 and his ERA is 6.14), not at home (team is 7-3 and his ERA is 3.86). Saunders is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in four career starts vs Cleveland (Angels are 3-1) and I expect the Angels to top the Tribe, tonight.