Will Rogers
Angels vs. Rangers
Pick: Under
We knew long ago that it wasn't going to be the season the Angels were hoping for, but now the division rival Texas Rangers are rapidly following suit. Considering who's pitching in Monday's series opener between the two teams (Jered Weaver and Matt Garza) and how these respective offensive perfomances haven't been performing, take the Under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Weaver - It was a slow start to the year, but the former Cy Young winner has regained his old form by not allowing a single run over his last two starts (14 2/3 innings). He's allowed just six hits total, both games went Under and the last was a 1-0 final (in his team's favor). Overall, the Under has cashed in 11 of Weaver's 13 starts this season. The Under is 18-12 all-time when he starts against Texas.
2. Garza - His Rangers debut could not have gone any better as the right-hander allowed only an unearned run Wednesday in a 3-1 win over the Yankees. Going back to his time with the Cubs, Garza has won six straight starts with a 1.23 ERA.
3. X-Factor - Obviously the potential loss of the Albert Pujols for the season is huge for the Angels. But what has happened to the Rangers' offense? Already a huge Under team (62-37 this year), Texas has been shutout in three of its last four games and enters Monday on a 21-inning scoreless streak. They had a season-worst two hits Sunday.
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Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland IndiansFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cleveland IndiansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We continue our almost daily exercise of fading the White Sox. Since pulling even at 24-24, CWS has gone 16-38 including being swept this weekend at home by KC in a trio of games where they were outscored 10-3 with a .196 BA. That is a microcosm of their bad offense, bad defense and bad attitude. Pitching Danks in this spot is no reason for hope. In his last 2 starts, both at home, Danks allowed 11 runs in 14 IP. But he is much worse on the road where he has gone 0-5 with a 6.03 ERA. Danks offers little hope against Cleveland, a team he has faced 16 times with a 4.94 ERA. Far prefer surging Cleveland. The streaky Tribe has put together recent runs of 18-5, 5-16, 15-5, 7-10 and now 4-0 including outscoring Texas by a combined count of 7-0 in their weekend sweep. McAllister eased back into action after being on the DL with a finger injury. But he has done his best work from this mound where Cleveland has won 4-6 McAllister starts in which he has a 2.87 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. In 5 outings vs. CWS, McAllister has a 3.07 ERA. Ride the respective momentum of each of these teams to a top play winner.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Just a half game separated Boston and Tampa as they meet to make up for a game that was postponed earlier in the week. The Rays have David Price on the mound and that is what gives them the edge in this one. Both pitchers have been sharp of late but who are you going to trust more, Price of Red Sox lefty Felix Doubront? Price threw a complete game at Fenway just last week while Doubront was chased after 6 innings. I could easily see that happening again, so take the Rays as a slight favourite in this important makeup game.
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Tampa Bay vs. BostonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These same two starting pitchers opposed each other here less than a week ago. Price got the better of Doubront that day, a 5-1 Tampa victory.
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A closer look at that 7/24 game reveals that the O/U line opened at nine and closed at 8.5. The O/U line for today's rematch opened at 8.5 and has currently fallen to eight. I believe that's offering some value.
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True, both pitchers are very capable. However, it can often be an advantage for the hitters, if they've just recently had a good look at the same pitcher that they'll be facing.
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While Tampa road games are averaging 8.9 runs, Boston home games are averaging 9.3. Consider the Over.
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Colorado vs. AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jorge de la Rosa and Brandon Beachy will face off on Monday night to open up a series between the Rockies and the Braves. de la Rosa has pitched well this season, but he's overachieving a bit and there should be normalization in his numbers in the near future. He has gotten away with a BB/9 rate above 3.00 and a line drive of nearly 25% for the most part this season and that seems unlikely to continue for a guy striking out a below average number of hitters. His road ERA this season is 3.25, but his FIP is above 4.00 and his xFIP is 4.24. This month, de la Rosa is stranding nearly 87% of opposing baserunners. That's not sustainable at all and the Braves have a pretty good offense.
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Brandon Beachy makes his first start back from Tommy John rehab, the first in the Majors for Beachy since June 16. Beachy walked 18 in 30 innings at Triple-A Gwinnett during his rehab period, so we would certainly expect some control problems and some rust for him in his first start back. It's a long road back from Tommy John and control is usually the last thing to return. It's likely that he'll be pitching with some nerves as well. It's very hard to expect Beachy to be sharp here and mistakes at the Major League level get punished.
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Cleveland Indians -156FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Zach McAllister has been great for the Indians at home this season. In his six home starts he has a 2.87 ERA and the Indians are 4-2 in those games. They are facing a White Sox team that is 1-5 in John Danks' six road starts this season. Danks has a 6.03 ERA in those games with a 1.427 WHIP.
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With Danks struggling right now I expect to see the Indians put up a lot of early runs. They have a .271 batting average against left-handed starters and they are scoring 5.3 runs per game in those matchups. It is no secret the White Sox have had trouble at the plate this year. It has been really bad in their last seven games, putting up a .232 batting average and scoring just 2.6 runs per game.
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Toronto +145 over OAKLANDFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Aside from an 11-game winning streak back in June, the Blue Jays have underachieved the entire season and for the most part they’ve also been overvalued most of the year. That changes here, as they now offer up some very good value against the over-achieving A’s. Esmil Rogers is pitching well. He’s 0-1 over his past five starts but over that span he has a strong 7/25 – BB/K rate over 30 innings. He also has a 51% groundball rate over that same span. When we take a closer look, we see that Rogers’ last nine starts have come against the Dodgers, Tampa, Cleveland, Detroit, Boston, Tampa again, Colorado and back-to-back against Texas. You would be hard-pressed to find a pitcher in baseball that has had a more difficult slate of games since the beginning of June than Rogers and the Blue Jays.
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Oakland rallied from a 5-0 deficit yesterday to beat the Angels for the third straight time after losing the opener. That was a huge series that pretty much put away the Angels for good in the AL West. The A’s could have a bit of a letdown here after playing their in-state rivals. Regardless if that comes to pass or not, Oakland is far too risky spotting a price like this because their offense is one the weakest in the league. We’re not big supporters of A.J. Griffin either. Griffin has a 3.84 ERA and 1.12 WHIP after 134 IP and he’s accomplished that with a very average skill set. Griffin has an uninspiring 33%/18%/48% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split. With an average fastball velocity of 89.3 mph, it would seem that Griffin succeeds using means other than velocity. An analysis of his pitch selection confirms this assertion. Griffin is throwing his curve, slider or change 40% of the time, meaning he’s keeping hitters guessing but only 11 of his 21 starts have been of the pure quality variety. Griffin has a 4.80 ERA over his past five starts and has been tagged for four runs or more in half of his past eight starts. Griffin is very capable of throwing a gem, especially at this pitcher’s park but we get the better offense and better starter with a pretty sweet tag on our side. It’s also worth noting that the Jays embark on a 10-game trip beginning here and they figure to be extra motivated in an attempt to set the tone in this crucial first game.
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Season win Total Washington Redskins Under 8 +116
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If you shop around you will find some 8½’s out there but you’re going to have to lay -140 or so to play it under that number. That said, you might want to wait until very late in the pre-season to make this wager because Redskins coach Mike Shanahan hates to lose preseason games. The Redskins could easily turn up the heat and go 4-0 in the preseason and should that come to pass, you could get a better number. However, if Robert Griffin III happens to injure himself in the preseason, this number will drop dramatically. We choose to play it now because that leaves nothing to chance before the preseason.
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We’ll apply our buy low, sell high philosophy here. The Redskins won the division last season. They are high on most people’s radar and they have become a very sexy choice to make a deep run this season. RG3 made quite a splash in his rookie season. He certainly lived up to all the hype and there’s no question that he’s an impact player. However, we have concerns about his health and this number is based on RG3 being healthy. Running QB’s in this league rarely play 16 games. They are huge targets and an injury is inevitable. The Redskins rode the hype of RG3 last year and turned it into a terrific season but teams will be better prepped this season to face him and he’s not 100% yet. The Washington Redskins almost placed Robert Griffin III on the Physically Unable to Perform list when training camp began. They avoided that and Griffin did not participate in team drills at the start of camp and there is no timetable for that to happen. Griffin is expected take part in seven-on-seven drills and to throw to all of the receivers. Exactly one week ago on the 22nd of July, Griffin tweeted that doctors have cleared him to practice but the coaches will ease him in.
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We have to turn our attentions back to Mike Shanahan. Shanahan is unfit to coach in this league. Shanahan risked RGIII's career in an attempt to win a Wild Card game. Shanahan does not care about his players, they are a means to an end, and that end is Mike Shanahan's further employment. He has done more brow-beating and tearing down than any other coach. The man is unprofessional for calling out players in the media. This doesn't build repoire or team spirit, it tears down the locker room. Shanahan is a bad coach who got lucky he had Steve Young and John Elway to bail him out for his bad decisions in the past and RG3 last year. There were many close games his team should have won. Terrible fourth quarter play-calling, throwing players under the bus in public, creation of multiple scapegoats to shift criticism away from the coaching staff is nothing new for Shanahan. Owner Daniel Snyder and Mike Shanahan is the absolute worst owner/coach combo in professional football. Now in his second year, the players are not going to respond to his terrorism like they did a year ago.
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In terms of talent and outside of RG3, the Redskins lack talented players at the skilled positions. Let’s also not ignore that they gave up the right for a first round pick until 2015 when they acquired the rights to RGIII. Once again that was orchestrated by Shanahan, whose goal is not to win Super Bowls but to simply stay in charge of an NFL team by any means necessary. That means the Redskins roster will be filled with aging vets, castoffs and no impact rookies.
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The most serious issue, however, is the Redskins schedule. Winning the division a year ago has Washington playing other division winners. The Redskins play at Denver, at Green Bay and at Atlanta. They also have to play the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles twice each. In fact, aside from Oakland in Week 4, the ‘’Skins do not have an easy game the entire year. There is no Tennessee, Arizona, Jets, Brownies, or Jacksonville on the slate. Instead, the Redskins have to play San Fran, San Diego, Detroit, Chicago, San Diego, K.C., and Minnesota besides the aforementioned nine games. We’ve put their schedule in easy to read form here:
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Week 1 - Mon, Sep 9 Philadelphia
Week 2 - Sun, Sep 15 @ Green Bay
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Week 3 - Sun, Sep 22 Detroit
Week 4 - Sun, Sep 29 @ Oakland
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Week 5 - Bye
Week 6 - Sun, Oct 13 @ Dallas**
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Week 7 - Sun, Oct 20 Chicago
Week 8 - Sun, Oct 27 @ Denver
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Week 9 - Sun, Nov 3 San Diego
Week 10 - Thu, Nov 7 @ Minnesota
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Week 11 - Sun, Nov 17 @ Philadelphia
Week 12 - Mon, Nov 25 San Francisco
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Week 13 - Sun, Dec 1 NY Giants**
Week 14 - Sun, Dec 8 Kansas City
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Week 15 - Sun, Dec 15 @ Atlanta
Week 16 - Sun, Dec 22 Dallas
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Week 17 - Sun, Dec 29 @ NY Giants
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The two stars** denotes Sunday night, prime timers in which the ‘Skins have two of those. They also travel to Minnesota on three days’ rest on Thanksgiving Thursday on November 7, which means their November 3rd home game against the Chargers is in a “look ahead” spot. The ‘Skins also have two Monday night games, meaning almost a third of their games (5 in total) are prime time games. The Redskins close the season with games against Atlanta, Dallas and the Giants, meaning that Week 14 game against K.C is another “difficult” spot. This is one of the league’s toughest schedules.
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Can you see nine wins here? If things go swimmingly for the Redskins, they’ll be hard-pressed to win eight games. A couple of key injuries, the inevitable locker room tensions that accompany Shanahan wherever he goes and a lack of talent at the skilled positions will all contribute to this overvalued squad having a very mediocre year and certainly not nine wins.
Steve Janus
Milwaukee Brewers +112
This is a good spot to fade the Cubs at home. Chicago is fresh off a 3-game sweep at San Francisco and have won 5 of their last seven overall. This may seem like the time to jump on the Cubs, but they are a miserable 1-12 against the money line after a stretch where they have won 5 or 6 of their last seven.
While the Brewers haven't been playing their best baseball of late, which likely has something to do with the distraction created by the suspension to Ryan Braun, they are going to be motivated to play well against a division rival.
The key here is that Milwaukee has the edge on the mound in this one. The Brewers Kyle Lohse has a 2.79 ERA over his last three starts and has now allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Cubs will counter with a struggling Jeff Samardzija, who has a 6.62 ERA and 1.641 WHIP over his last three starts. Samardzija has also had a difficult time throwing well at home. He's just 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.607 WHIP at Wrigley this season. In his last four home starts vs the Angels, Pirates, Astros and Reds he's allowed 23 runs on 37 hits and 11 walks in just 23 and 2/3 innings of work.
Steve Rosen
Tampa Bay Rays -113
The scorching Rays have won 8 of their last 10 games. We have David Price who is 4-1 on the road going up against Felix Doubront who is 3-2 at home. David Price seeks his fifth win in six starts and the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays look to move ahead of the host Boston Red Sox in the American League East on Monday in the makeup of Thursday's rained-out contest.
Tampa Bay won two of the three games in last week’s series, and its Sunday loss to the New York Yankees was only its fourth in 25 games. Boston is one-half game ahead in the division after defeating Baltimore on Sunday.
Price defeated Boston in his last turn as he allowed one run and five hits in his third complete game in four starts. Rays ace David Price is 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA in his five starts since returning from the DL. He has three complete games in that span.
Cold batting stat: Sox DH David Ortiz is 7-for-31 (.226) with no homers and seven strikeouts in his career versus the lefty Price.
Hot batting statTampa Bay’s Luke Scott has two homers in 13 career at-bats versus Doubront.
John Ryan
San Diego Padres +145
The simulator shows a high probability that SD will win this game. SD has struggled over the course of the season, BUT they have been great investments when playing the elite teams. They are a resounding 11-4 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a strong team winning between 54% to 62% of their games this season. The Padres are also a solid 11-4 (+11.8 Units) against the money line off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Reds have had a power outage on offense and are coming off a 1-0 loss at Los Angeles. Not good news for a bounce back win tonight as they are just 3-11 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 1 run or less this season. Take the Padres.
Jeff Alexander
Cleveland Indians -165
The White Sox have lost 38 of their last 54 overall and 22 of their last 29 on the road. I don't see them doing much damage tonight in Cleveland where the Indians have won seven straight. The Tribe has won its last four versus Chicago and should extend this run given the advantage it has on the mound with McAllister, who is carrying a 2.87 ERA at home. Danks has been awful on the road where he's 0-5 with a 6.03 ERA. Cleveland gets the call.
Dave Price
Colorado Rockies +130
The Braves are getting a little too much respect from odds makers as Brandon Beachy makes his first big-league start in more than a year. Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa has been dealing, and I expect him to have plenty of success against an Atlanta club that has dropped six of its last seven when facing a southpaw starter. The Rockies are 11-4 in De La Rosa's last 15 starts and 5-2 in his last seven starts as an underdog. We'll make the value play on Colorado.
Jason Sharpe
San Diego +140
Big fat underdog selection here with San Diego in this one. The Padres are playing some very good baseball right now and none of this is unexpected either as they are finally healthy again. San Diego returns home in this one after going 6-4 on their post All-Star break road trip. Even more impressive than a winning record on the trip was the fact each one of their six wins came as an underdog. In fact the Padres won their backers a healthy +4 units of profit in the ten games. The San Diego offense has been good now that they have all their pieces back in place.
You have to wonder how much is left in the tank with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds play in their fourth city in the last days here tonight. They have all been big games of late also as they played the Pirates, Giants and Dodgers after the break. This may be a spot where they come in sleeping a little bit in this one versus San Diego. Cincinnati will go with Mile Leake on the hill. Leake is having a good season for a guy with very average skills. His xFIP sits well over a run higher than his ERA on the season meaning Leake comes in a little overvalued. His last start was an odd one as the Giants put up 12 hits against him but scored just one run in his six innings pitched.
The Padres are playing well and at home here offer some very nice value. Take San Diego. Starting to heat up with a perfect 3-0 day on Sunday in big league baseball betting action. I come back here on Monday with my big MLB Game of the Week. I won my big MLB Game of the Month last week and love this game just as much. The pitcher and the team in this contest are both at the tops of their games right now and offer tons of solid value betting them here.
Dave Essler
Miami -115
I think people are going to want to fade the Fish, and I get that, actually. It does give me pause. But, there is, right now, a huge discrepancy in the way these teams are playing and probably a reasonably starting pitching advantage for Miami. Some of Hefner's numbers are decent, but the ERA simply is not, and Turner has only given up more than three earned runs once in ten starts. Now, I will be annoyed of Stanton rests or something, but I cannot wait for lineups this afternoon like I usually can. If Miami were a contending team with some intensity I would think that the first game of a new series might be a bigger issue. But, the Fish are, to a man, just happy to be playing and have no expectations. Conversely, there are always expectations in New York, regardless of whether it's the Mets or the Yankees.
The Mets are 24-42 against right handed pitching, as opposed to 22-14 against lefties. That's an insane difference. The Fish bullpen has been outstanding, and in games against the contending Pirates as well as games at Coors Field recently. This is, I believe, only the 7th time they've been favored this season, and are 4-2 in the previous six, which means it's usually for good reason. Honestly, I was so going to take the RL at about +185 here, but no reason to be greedy. Perhaps split it?