Teddy Covers
Chicago vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
My clients and I cashed a pair of winners supporting Kansas City against the White Sox over the weekend. And there’s absolutely no reason to think that Robin Ventura’s slumping squad is going to break out of their extended funk in Cleveland tonight.
Here’s an excerpt from my last write-up against the White Sox, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities:
“In the ‘bottom feeder’ pecking order in MLB this year, Houston and Miami are clearly at the top. After those two, the next worst team in baseball has been the Chicago White Sox, sitting 22 games under .500 right now. The ChiSox are open to dealing nearly every key veteran on the team before the trading deadline, a major clubhouse distraction. And for a team that expected to compete this year; a team that was sitting at .500, only four games out of first place just two months ago; this complete collapse and roster shake-up to come doesn’t portend an immediate turnaround.”
Cleveland, on the other hand, has a boatload of positive momentum after sweeping the Rangers at home over the weekend. They’ve been mashing lefties like Chicago’s John Danks all year; averaging more than a half run per game higher while going 20-14 against opposing southpaws. Starter Zack McAllister has only allowed four earned runs in two previous starts against the White Sox this year, and he’s allowed three earned runs or less in all five previous career starts against them. This is chalk worth laying!
Larry Ness
Cincinnati vs. San Diego
Pick: Cincinnati
Mike Leake and Sean O’Sullivan were both San Diego prep stars and the two square off tonight at Petco Park. Leake (Cincinnati’s first-round pick in 2009) pitches at Petco Park for the first time in his career on Monday,. As for O’Sullivan (Angels’ third round pick of the June 2005 draft), he’s making a second straight start for the Padres with Jason Marquis scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery and Clayton Richard having season-ending shoulder surgery, as well. O’Sullivan made 17 appearances (11 starts) for the Angels back in 2009-10, going 5-2 but with a 5.15 ERA. He was traded to KC in 2010 and through the 2011 season, made 26 appearances (23 starts), going 5-12 with a 6.63 ERA.
He spent all of last year in the minors and made his 2013 debut on July 12 at home vs the Giants, allowing six hits and two ERs over five innings of a 10-1 loss. He was used in relief at St Louis on July 19 (2 IP / 5 hits / 3 ERs) and his third appearance of 2013 came last Wednesday at Milwaukee, when he allowed three runs (two earned) over n 6.1 innings of a 3-1 loss. San Diego has won five of seven games and climbed out of the National League West basement, moving past the ‘free-falling’ San Francisco Giants.
Cincinnati is 4-4 during an 11-game road trip which ends here in San Diego with three games. The Reds had averaged 6.2 runs while winning SEVEN of their previous nine, but after beating the Dodgers 5-2 on Thursday, come into this contest off three straight losses (scored just twice while dropping the final three of their four-game series with the Dodgers). However, Mike Leake may not need much help tonight. He has won three straight starts and is 8-2 with a 1.97 ERA over his last 13 (team is 10-3). Take the Reds.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -125
The Los Angeles Angels are deflated after losing three out of four games to the Oakland A's over the weekend. They fell further behind the A's in the AL West standings due to that poor series.
Now, the Angels (48-55) have lost Albert Pujols to a foot injury, and he's going to miss an extended period of time. Texas (56-49) comes in hungry for a victory in Game 1 of this series as it tries to keep pace with the A's, trailing them by six games for the division lead.
Matt Garza has pitched very well this season in his time between the Cubs and Rangers. The right-hander has gone 7-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 12 starts this year, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last three.
The Angels are 1-6 in their last 7 road games. Los Angeles is 0-5 in its last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rangers are 28-12 in their last 40 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Texas is 11-4 in its last 15 home meetings with Los Angeles. Bet the Rangers Monday.
Tony Bucca
Milwaukee/Chicago Over 7
Lohse has unfavorable numbers vs Cubs lifetime: 5.07 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .289 batting avg. Samardzija has unfavorable home numbers this year: 5.46 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and .294 batting avg against. Wind is NW at 10 right now. 7 out of their L9 games vs each other have gone over. Brewers road games average a combined 8' runs while the Cubs home games average a combined 9' runs.
Don Best Consensus
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers
Pick: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are 7-1 in their last 8 overall and 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 1-5 in Strasburg's last 6 starts and 1-5 in their last 6 interleague road games.
Craig Davis
David Price, Tampa's starter, could enter the record books with a win today. With a win Price would be the first pitcher in over 80 years to go into Fenway Park and beat the Red Sox twice within a five-day span.
Price (5-5, 3.75 ERA) pitched a five-hitter in last week's 5-1 win over the Red Sox and, in my opinion, should be able to overpower them again today.
His career ERA pitching in Fenway Park is 1.96 with a 5-1 overall record in nine starts. I'd say that's dominating and I just can't see enough from the Boston offense to scare me away from this one.
He's also 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA since coming back from the DL (five starts) and unless things completely fall apart... he should be able to duplicate those efforts tonight.
Felix Doubront (7-4, 3.78 ERA) counters for Boston and he's hardly in the same class as Price.
While Doubront is a respectable pitcher, he's not the same as Price and while I expect this to be a low-scoring game, I find the Rays the better of the two teams with the better starter on the hill.
Take Tampa as your free play of the day.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Under in the Rays-Red Sox make-up game tonight at Fenway Park.
It is deja-vu all over again, as David Price and Felix Doubront meet for the second time in less than a week, as last Thursday's series finale between Tampa Bay and Boston was rained out, so Price and Doubront have at it once again.
Price was the winner last Wednesday, as the southpaw worked all 9 and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in a 5-1 Tampa win that did stay Under the total.
That makes 7 straight series meetings between these rivals having stayed Under the total.
Price is 5-1 in his 9 career starts in Beantown, and his ERA are Fenway stands at 1.96.
As for Doubront, he did give up 3 runs in last Wednesday's loss, but in his 6 prior starts, Doubront has allowed 2 runs or less to cross, with 6 of his last 7 starts overall having played Under the total.
Rays-Red Sox to play their 8th straight Under tonight early at Fenway Park.
4♦ TAMPA BAY-BOSTON UNDER
Brad Wilton
Monday's comp play will be the underdog Cardinals as they begin a 5 game series from Pittsburgh.
St. Louis has lost their last 3, as the Cards were swept away this weekend in Atlanta. Look for them to stop the bleeding tonight as they play against a Pittsburgh team that has also had their issues of late.
Pittsburgh is back home after dropping 3 of their last 4 on the road.
Francisco Liriano is now 10-4 for the season after picking up a win over Washington his last time out. He will work against Jake Westbrook who is looking for his third straight winning start.
PNC Park should be packed as the Pirates look to track down the Cardinals for first place in the Central.
My money tonight is on the Redbirds to draw first blood.
2♦ ST. LOUIS
Brett Atkins
Teams that play Sunday Night Baseball, then have to play the next night are better off if they won the night before and play at home on Monday. Enter the Atlanta Braves, who are laying what I think a cheap price against the Colorado Rockies.
Atlanta, which has won three straight, completed its eighth sweep of the season with last night's 5-2 win over National League Central-leading St. Louis and comes in with an 8-1/2-game lead over the Washington Nationals in the National League East. The Braves are getting it done efficiently, all around, and could very well make an argument for being the best team in baseball.
I know the Cardinals and Pirates have the best records in the National League, but the Braves are on their heels, and right now, Atlanta is playing as good as anyone else, even the Boston Red Sox, who have the best record in baseball. Now here come the Rockies, who didn't necessarily fare well against some of the National League's worst teams during a recent homestand, so I have to wonder what they hell they're going to do against one of Major League's best.
The Braves get a Rockies team that has been at home since the start of the second half, after hosting the Cubs, Miami and Milwaukee, it hasn't had a day off and now travels to the East coast and will be playing across the country. This is tailor-made to be a solid series for the National League East-leading Braves.
3♦ ATLANTA
Chris Jordan
I'm not going to list the pitchers in this game because I obviously won't mind if Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse is scratched from this game.
Instead, I'm intrigued with the new-look Cubbies, who are riding a three-game win streak and they're getting it done without Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano. It certainly doesn't look like the team that won two of three games in Milwaukee in late June, and yet it's playing better than that squad.
The home team has won five of the eight meetings this season, and unfortunately for the Brewers, they're arriving from the Mile High City, where it's never easy to continue a road trip from, especially against a division rival. Colorado won two of the three-game set, concluding with yesterday's 6-5 win, so it's hard to see the Brew Crew arriving with any kind of momentum. Going back even further, to their last homestand, the Brewers have lost five of seven.
Chicago, meanwhile, has been gone since the All Star Break, and has won five of seven - including a three-game sweep over the weekend in San Francisco against the defending World Series champion Giants. The fans will be hyped, and the Cubbies should be ready to celebrate. Lay the cheap chalk and play it straight.
1♦ CHICAGO
Scott Delaney
The Miami Marlins are hosting the New York Mets at the right time, as the kings of Queens arrive in South Beach mired in a three-game losing streak after getting pummeled by the Washington Nationals in our nation's capital.
After winning the first game 11-0, the Mets were outscored 20-3 in the last three games. Now to have to come down to Miami, to face a Marlins team that has won seven of the last eight meetings, that's trouble.
I won't even bother listing pitchers in this one, as the Fish have the right momentum flowing for this game, not to mention a five-game winning streak versus the Mets. Miami has won five of seven overall, and have also won five of its last seven at Marlins Park. And even though I won't bother specifying Jeremy Hefner or Jacob Turner in this one, make note the Fish have won Turner's last six home starts.
Lay the chalk in this one, as MIami is the right side.
2♦ MIAMI
Rob Veno
Colorado at Atlanta
Play: Colorado
This is an important first step for Atlanta as they ease Brandon Beachy back into their starting rotation with the thought that he fills the void left by Tim Hudson’s season ending injury last week. Beachy is coming off of Tommy John surgery and will for all intent and purposes be unrestricted in this start as his pitch limit is set at 100. That suggests at least a six inning stint unless he runs into trouble with the Colorado bats or control issues. At Triple-A Gwinnett, Beachy walked 18 batters in 30 innings which creates the possibility of an early high pitch count. Colorado is about average in plate patience (7th in NL with 298 walks) but tonight they’re likely to make a concerted effort to run up his pitch total. Atlanta’s bullpen figures to be faced with back-end fatigue tonight and getting Beachy out in four or five innings will benefit the Rockies. Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa could also benefit here as the Braves are off of a high energy sweep of NL best St. Louis. Atlanta poured everything into that three-game set and the arrival of sub-.500 Colorado could produce a one night letdown. De La Rosa has sparked his team as they’ve gone 11-4 in his last 15 starts. The left hander is currently on a dominant roll posting a 1.09 WHIP and 2.18 ERA over his last seven starts allowing just one home run over those 41.1 innings. He’s also on a near three month road tear in which he’s recorded a 1.93 ERA and .188 BAA. Fully believe that Beachy will become a solid asset to Atlanta’s playoff push but like the way the situation sets up for the visiting Rockies in this one.