Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday July, 30

Marc Lawrence

Mets at Giants
Play: Under

The Mets and Giants open a four-game series in San Francisco Monday night where Jeremy Hefner matches serves with Madison Bumgarner at AT&T Park. Both pitchers enter tonight's fray in great KW form - Hefner wtih 14 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts; Bumgarner with 22 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three efforts. With Bumgarner sporting a super-sharp 1.89 ERA in his nine starts at home this season, and these two teams having combined to score more than seven runs in only on of their last eight meetings in this park, look for a low-scoring contest tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play n the UNDER in the Mets/Giants game.

Scott Spreitzer

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The trade for Hanley Ramirez has not only made a difference in the Dodger lineup on the field, but this group of players feels like they can win it all and also that ownership is backing them 100-percent. Los Angeles just completed a weekend sweep in San Francisco and return to Chavez Ravine for a series with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers will send Aaron Harang to the bump. The righthander has been on top of his game in his last four starts, allowing just 7 earned runs and 22 base runners in 26 1/3 innings. Harang also owns great home numbers in 2012. He'll face a Diamondback lineup that plates less than 4 rpg in road night games against righties and I don't believe they're going to "bust out" in this one. Add in Trevor Cahill's rough three game stretch, allowing 10 earned runs and 28 base runners in 17 1/3 IP, and I believe the "Snakes" are in a tough spot. Arizona has won just 3 of their last 13 on the road against righties, while the Dodgers are on a 20-7 run as home chalk up to -1.50. I'm backing the Dodgers on Monday night.

MTi Sports

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Giants are 17-0 when Madison Bumgarner starts as a home favorite. Note that the Giants opponents have scored an average of 1.5 runs per game in this spot. Consider the Giants.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -1.5

The Giants have be way to heavy a favorite to unit rate. However they should be able to get this one by 2 or more runs as they fit a solid system that plays on home favorites of -140 or higher with a total that is 8 or less that are off a home dog loss with a total that was 8 or less, vs an opponent off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs. The system seems complicated but does well long term. Ironically the Giants were the last team to fit the system back on June 12th, also with Bumgarner on the Mound in a 6-3 win over Houston. The Giants have won 10 of 12 on Monday and catch a Mets team that is forced to start J, Hefner with all the injuries to their pitching staff. The Mets also have the worst bullpen era on the road. Look for the Giants to coast.

Vegas Experts

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

Seattle has not been a comfort zone for Toronto as Jays are just 4-6 last ten visits. Of those six Toronto losses two were with Monday's scheduled starter, Ricky Romero (8-7, 5.75 ERA). Romero in lowsy form with a 0.727 SWR, 2.349 WHIP, 10.89 Avg-Runs-Allw/9 and putrid 5.72 Batter-Out-Ratio/9 the past six trips to the mound (0-6) stick with the Seattle as they move to 5-0 vs a starter with a WHIP > 1.30 and Jays fall to 4-11 vs an A.L. West opponent

Ben Burns

San Diego vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Under

Both tonight's starters have been profitable "under" pitchers this season. Leake has seen 11 of his 19 starts fall below the total, most recently a 4-2 win over Houston. Volquez has been even better to "under" bettors; 13 of his 21 starts have fallen beneath the number. His last two starts have finished with scores of 1-0 and 3-2. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here.

In his last two starts, Volquez has allowed just two runs and only four hits, through 16 combined innings. That's outstanding. A former Red, Volquez should be motivated to pitch well. His only previous start vs. the Reds saw him allow only one run through seven complete innings, striking out 10. I had a big play on the "under" in that game - it finished with a score of 2-1.

While Leake was a little inconsistent earlier in the season, he's been very tough lately. Last time out, he allowed two runs in eight innings. That marked the sixth time in his last seven starts, that he's allowed two or fewer earned runs. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 6-1 in those games. Going back a bit further finds that he's now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 13 starts.

Of course, it helps that Leake has the support of a Reds' bullpen which has a combined 2.18 ERA here at Cincinnati this season.

With yesterday's game falling beneath the number, the Reds have now seen the UNDER go 14-6-4 this month. This one may also prove lower-scoring than some will be expecting. Consider the Under.

Jesse Schule

Arizona vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have just come off a sweep of their rival Giants, and they now stand locked in a tie with San Francisco on top of the NL West. LA looks like a new team with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier back in the lineup, and the addition of Hanley Ramirez has put a little more punch in their offense. The offense might not have too much trouble keeping the ball rolling here tonight, going up against Trevor Cahill.

Cahill (8-9, 3.86 ERA) hasn't been all that sharp in recent starts. He allowed four runs on eight hits, including a home run, while going just over six innings in a 4-2 loss to the Rockies his last time out. Prior to that, he allowed four runs on nine hits, while working just five innings, but picking up a win in a 13-8 ballgame against Houston.

Hanley Ramirez hasn't seen a lot of Cahill, but he has been successful going 2 for 3 with a double against the right-hander.

The Dodgers will send Aaron Harang to the mound tonight, coming off a solid outing his last time out. Harang (7-5, 3.39 ERA) went seven innings allowing just two runs on two hits, while not figuring in the decision in a 3-2 loss to St. Louis.

Harang should give the Dodgers quality innings here tonight, and it should be enough to help them get by the D'Backs at home.

Chris Elliott

LA Angels vs. Texas
Pick: Texas

The Los Angeles Angels (55-47) travel east to take on the Texas Rangers (58-41) looking to close the 5 game gap in the AL West.

Ervin Santana will toe the rubber for the Angels with a record of 4-10 and 6.00 ERA. He is 0-3 in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 9.43 after pitching a 1 hit shut out victory over Arizona on June 16th. The Angels are 3-9 in Santana`s last 12 road starts and 6-8 in 14 career road starts in Texas.

Roy Oswalt will counter for Texas with a record of 3-1, ERA of 5.22 and 1.67 WHIP. Oswalt has made 5 starts this season as he rounds into shape after signing a free agent contract with the Rangers. He has a sparkling career record of 162-94 with an impressive 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 1,784 career Ks. The Rangers are 4-1 in his 5 starts this season.

This game should be of high intensity as the Angels continue to chase down the Rangers. The Angels are 25-25 on the road and the Rangers are a sizzling 31-19 at home. Home field advantage Texas.

Oswalt is a bit of a question mark with only 5 starts on the season but is a proven performer with 3 all star nods. Santana has given up a massive 23 HR on the season and could be in for a short outing at the launching pad in Arlington. Starting pitching advantage Texas.

The Angels have a bullpen ERA of 3.34 and the Rangers bullpen ERA is 3.26. Bullpen advantage Even.

Both L.A. and Texas have strong offenses; overall statistically the Rangers are stronger as they are 3rd in total bases to the Angels 7th and 4th in runs scored to the Angels 11th. Josh Hamilton has seriously struggled for Texas and has heard the "boo birds" recently in Texas. Mike Trout has led the way for the Angels and is the consensus MVP pick in the AL at the 100 game mark of the season. Offense advantage Even.

Conclusion: Take the better team at home with the better starting pitcher. Take the Rangers to win this game!

Dave Cokin

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Detroit Tigers

Two surging pitchers battling here with Max Scherzer opposing Clay Buchholz. Little to choose on paper, but the situation favors the visitors, so the Tigers are the free play.

Jim Feist

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto starter lefty Ricky Romero needs to face a weak offensive line up and he gets one against anemic Seattle. The Mariners just dealt star Ichiru Suzuki last week and are even more miserable on offense. Romero has a 2.70 ERA this season against Seattle, as well as 3.51 for his career. The Mariners are 38-82 in their last 120 games vs. a left-handed starter. Toronto has a Top 10 offense and Seattle goes with Hisashi Iwakuma, who nibbles too much around the plate walking 25 in 51 innings (plus 50 hits allowed) for a 4.56 ERA. Play the Blue Jays.

Red Dog Sports

USA -13.5 (1st quarter)

I think the USA women jump ahead by 15 to 20 on Monday. On Saturday there were plenty of nerves as they got off to a slow start against Croatia. After a day of rest and getting used to the surroundings I expect to see Geno Ariemma's squad play better against Angola, who fell behind 21-8 to Turkey on Saturday. Back in 2008, Angola was down by 14 to Latvia and down 15 to the Czech Republic after one period in the FIBA tournament.

My guess is the USA gets points from Sylvia Fowles, Candace Parker, Maya Moore, Angel McCoughtry, Simone Augustus and Diana Taurasi and jumps ahead 25-8 after one quarter.

I am using this as a free play since first quarter lines may not be available at some books.

Dr. Ed Meyer

Detroit Tigers +108

Clay Buchholz has been fantastic in his last two starts, beating the White Sox 3-1 and the Rangers 2-1. Many will quote these numbers as a reason to play on Boston here. However, the Red Sox are 7-18 as a FAVORITE when they won their starter's last two starts. If it is the first game of a series vs an AL foe, the Red Sox are 0-8 in this spot.

That is, the Red Sox are 0-8 as a favorite in league play in a series opener when they won their starter's last two starts, losing by an average of 3.2 runs per game.

The Tigers have won Scherzer's last two starts as well. But unlike the Red Sox, they are a play-on team in this spot. Detroit is 19-5 when they won the last two games their starter started after playing in a day game.

We had the Red Sox last night of the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball because, among other factors, they were, "a stubborn 33-12 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series." However, all the their momentum vanishes when they go on to a new series. Boston is 2-17 as a FAVORITE over an AL foe in a series opener when they are off a night win in which they never trailed. The SDQL is:

Note that they are 0-11 vs non-divisional opponents in this spot.

Consider the Tigers.

SPORTS WAGERS

OAKLAND +122 over Tampa Bay

Oakland has won 12 of 14 since the break. Tampa is 8-8 since the break. Over the past 20 games, the A’s have scored 104 times (2nd in the majors) while the Rays have scored 75 times (23rd in the majors). The Rays’ team batting average since July 1 is .227, which ranks them dead last in the majors. The A’s batting average over that same span is .261, good for sixth in the AL and 10th overall. In terms of current offensive form, Oakland has a huge edge.

The Rays have made bad pitchers look good all season long and while David Price is rock solid, Tampa in no way deserves to be road chalk here. A.J. Griffin has been just as solid as Price with a 3-0 record and 2.25 ERA over six starts with full skills support. This line is off the mark.

Detroit +111 over BOSTON

In three starts back since his DL stint, Clay Buchholz has a 2.53 ERA over 21.1 frames. Prior to that, his ERA was 5.53 and his overall xERA is 4.25. Buchholz has an average strikeout rate of 73 K’s in 109 innings. Aside from this season, he’s outpitched his skills for years and just when you think he’s ready to take that next step, he falters. Buchholz’s stock is high after back-to-back gems against the White Sox and Rangers. Those type of efforts won’t last long.

Max Scherzer had a terrible April which included a beat down from the Red Sox but he redeemed himself with a strong outing at Fenway Park on May 31. Scherzer enters this one on a roll, as he has had six quality starts in his past seven assignments. He has an elite strikeout rate of 142 K’s in 116 frames but a low 72% strand rate has his ERA at an inflated 4.49. Scherzer is better than that, as indicated by his xERA of 3.40. It also helps that Boston is coming off an always emotional series against the Yankees. Detroit as a pooch combined with facing a team in a letdown spots gets the nod here.

Matt Fargo

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston took two of three in New York against the Yankees to get back to .500 on the season and this is the start of a big 10-game homestand. The home field edge for the Red Sox has not been there this season as they are three games under .500 at home but they do own a 3-1 record at home against the Tigers this season. The offense remains inconsistent but Boston has a good shot at breaking out on Monday and the Red Sox are 11-4 in their last 15 games as home favorites between -110 and -150. Detroit was able to salvage the series finale in Toronto but it is just 2-4 on this current roadtrip. The Tigers entered it in first place in the American League Central but a big run by the White Sox has knocked them back down into second place and the offense is to blame. Detroit has scored just 18 runs through these first six road games and it is hitting only .218 over its last five games. The pitching hasn't fared much better as the starters ERA over that same stretch is 4.76. Clay Buchholz takes the hill for Boston and he is coming off consecutive quality starts as he allowed just one run in each of those games, posting a 1.20 ERA in the process. This came after a rough outing in his first start back from injury but he is again looking like the ace Boston has pegged him for. The Red Sox are 6-1 in his last seven starts and while he was hit hard in his lone start against the Tigers in Detroit this year, in three home starts against the Tigers he has a 0.82 ERA with all three starts being quality outings. The Tigers go with Max Scherzer who has been equally impressive of late with two quality starts in his last two games. He allowed only three runs and six hits combined in those two games but he walked eight batters and that remains an issue. He has a 1.38 WHIP on the season including 1.45 on the road and allowing too many baserunners has caught up to him many times this year. He has pitched well at Fenway Park but in five career starts against Boston, he is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.09 WHIP.