MLB Predictions
Texas Rangers -143
The Angels dropped their weekend games at home vs Tampa Bay, with Grienke on the mound yesterday in a 2-0 loss. Texas had dropped the first two meetings at home vs the White Sox, but had a 2-0 victory yesterday to avoid the sweep. Los Angeles is 55-47 and 25-25 on the road, while the Rangers are 59-41 and 32-19 at home. Angels pitcher Ervin Santana will be limited to 15 outs as he has continued to struggle. He is just 4-10 on the season with a 6.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .264 opponents batting average. On the road he is just 2-4 with a 6.96 ERA and .305 opponents batting average. Over his last three starts he has allowed 16 earned runs against in just 8 innings of work as he failed to get out of the 2nd inning twice. His latest start was against Texas at home where he went just 1.2 innings giving up 8 hits and 6 earned runs. Roy Oswalt has started 5 games this season and is 3-1 with a 5.22 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and .344 opponents batting average. After a pretty solid first start Oswalt had two very rough outings, but has bounced back in his last two starts allowing just 2 earned runs against. Oswalt is starting to look more like himself in his last couple starts (he had a 3.69 ERA in 2011 and a 2.76 ERA in 2010). Note that the Angels are just 2-7 in their last 9 road games, 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog, 3-9 in Santana's last 12 road starts, and 5-18 in his last 23 starts overall. Los Angeles is also just 1-10 in Santana's last 11 starts vs a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 45-21 in their last 66 home games, 20-8 in their last 28 home games vs a team with a winning record, and 4-1 in Oswalt's 5 starts this season. Texas has taken 5 of their last 7 home meetings vs Los Angeles, and are 5-1 in their last 6 vs Santana. The Rangers should be able to hit Santana hard again today, and I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't make it to the 15 outs he is limited to.
Oakland Athletics +118
The Athletics have won 18 of their 22 games this month, and have moved to 55-46 on the season (29-21 at home). After some recent struggles the Rays put together a 4-2 road trip in Baltimore and Los Angeles to move to 53-49 on the season and 25-24 on the road. Tonight we will see David Price on the mound, who has been one of the AL's best pitchers. He is 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .231 opponents batting average. On the road his ERA is a bit higher at 3.19. Rookie A.J. Griffin has impressive numbers over his 6 starts with a 3-0 record, 2.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and .205 opponents batting average. Note that the Rays are just 4-11 in their last 15 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 7-19 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 6-14 in their last 20 games as a favorite overall. The Athletics are 4-0 in Griffin's last 4 starts, 19-7 in their last 26 home games, 11-2 in their last 13 vs AL East opponents, 12-2 in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record, 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss, and 5-0 in their last 5 as a home underdog. The A's are worth a look every time they are an underdog right now, and being at home with Griffin on the mound versus a team that has struggled scoring runs I like the A's for a unit.
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati Reds -144
The red-hot Reds have won 10 in a row, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against San Diego, a club they have defeated 8 times in the past 11 meetings. Cincy's Leake has pitched well enough to keep the team in games this season. The Reds are 4-1 in his last 5 starts, 5-2 in his last 7 home starts and 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Volquez has been solid for San Diego, but he often doesn't receive the benefit of good run support. The Padres are 2-5 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 road starts versus a team with a winning record. We'll take the Reds.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Dodgers -123
The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing some great value as a small home favorite on Monday. The Dodgers come in off an impressive 3-game sweep at San Francisco over the weekend and have now won 8 of their last 11 overall.
The Dodgers are a solid 29-20 at home this season, while the Diamondbacks are only 21-27 on the road. Arizona was able to go 7-3 over a long 10-game homestand, thanks in large part to an offense that averaged 6.6 runs/game during that stretch. However, Arizona has struggled offensively on the road. They are averaging just 3.6 runs/game on the road this season.
That sets up a pretty good situation to back one of the more underrated starters in the National League in Aaron Harang. In 20 starts this season, Harang is 7-5 with an impressive 3.39 ERA. He has been even better at home, posting a 2.94 ERA in 8 starts.
Los Angeles is 43-18 in their last 61 games as a home favorite, 20-7 in their last 27 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-1 in Harangs last 5 starts vs. National League West.
Jack Jones
Cincinnati Reds -144
I'll back the Cincinnati Reds Monday as they continue playing their best baseball of the season. Cincinnati has now won 10 straight games to get to 61-40 on the season and first place in the NL Central.
Mike Leake has been solid this season, sporting a 4.12 ERA and 1.297 WHIP through 19 starts. He'll be up against Edinson Volquez, who is 3-3 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in nine road starts this year. The Reds are very familiar with their former teammate, so that should benefit them tonight.
Leake is 11-0 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Padres are 17-44 in their last 61 vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds are 11-1 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet Cincinnati Monday.
Jeff Alexander
Pittsburgh Pirates -134
The Pirates are worth a shot at this price considering they are 23-5 in their last 28 games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The Cubs have been playing well at home, but they have lost 5 of their last 7 home games to Pittsburgh. Bedard has faced the Cubs twice this season and shut them down in both outings. He has allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 13 innings in those starts. Take Pittsburgh on the money line.
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox -124
The White Sox are showing value at this price against a Twins club they have defeated 16 times in the last 21 meetings overall and 8 times in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota. The Sox are 5-1 in Quintana's last 6 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. The Twins, meanwhile, are 0-4 in De Vries' last 4 starts. Bet Chicago.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Texas/ Angels Under 11: Google News Play I know the horrendous numbers of Santana this year and of late (16.00 ERA in last 3 starts), but he will be facing a Texas team that is just having problems scoring right now. The Rangers have averaged 5.27 rpg at home, but in their last 5 here they have put up just 3 rpg. In the 3 game set vs the White Sox they scored just 9 total runs and were 1-32 with RISP. Now despite Santana's 6.96 ERA on the road, those games have averaged just 9.6 rpg. Roy Oswalt come in after 12 days rest and while his overall numbers aren't that great (5.22 ERA), he has pitched well in his 3 starts here this year with a 3.44 ERA and he has yet to allow a HR in his home starts this year. Roy will also be taking on a struggling offense, as the Halos come in being shutout in their last games, while averaging just 3 rpg in their last 5 games. Just one of Ervins last 7 games vs the Rangers vhave put up more than 11 runs and I see that trend continuing here as no more than 9 runs are scored in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Detroit +111 over BOSTON: Good spot for Detroit here. Boston is off a tough series with the Yanks and ended it by winning last night in Extras, so they may not be fully up for this one. I realize that this is a team that needs to win allot of games to have any shot at the post season, but Detroit needs to keep winning as well. Detroit is currently a game and a half behind the ChiSox, who have an easy series in Minnesota coming up, so this is a crucial series vs Boston for the Cats. Max Scherzer has been pitching well of late as he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 7 of his last 8 starts and he has a 2.54 ERA in his last 7 starts. On the road Max has a 4.74 ERA , but he has allowed more than 3 ER's just once in his last 6 starts away from home. He does have a 9.62 ERA in 5 starts vs Boston, but in 2 career starts here he is 1-0 and has allowed just 4 totals ER's in the two starts. Clay Bucholz has pitched well of late and he has good numbers vs Detroit, But i just feel this could be a flat spot for Boston and without Ortiz in this park the Sox will continue to struggle here. Detroit picks up a big win in game one of this series.
DODGERS -125 over Arizona: Google News Play After thinking about this game overnight and with some more digging and help from the Pregame community I will be going with LA in this one. Trevor Cahill has some nice road numbers overall and is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA vs LA, but 2 of those games were earlier in the year when he was hot and the Dodgers were floundering a bit. Now Trevor comes in at 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA in his last 2 road starts and his 7.65 ERA in the first inning could be a problem, cause if they allow an already confident LA Squad to get the early lead then that will just feed their confidence the rest of the game. Hanley Ramirez has really given this team a spark and playing in his first home game for LA will really have the place rocking. Aaron Harang has been pitching very well of late as he is 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA in July and he is 2-2 with a 2.94 ERA at home. He did get rocked in a start at Arizona earlier in the year, but he had allowed no more than 2 ER's in his prior 9 starts vs them. LA has the momentum and a great deal of emotion will be in the park tonight with Hanley's first home game here, plus LA Know they can't afford to lose too many of these, especially with SF at home vs the Mets. LA Continues to roll here.
POWER ANGLE PLAY (8-0 LAST 8)
ATLANTA -146 over Miami: The Fish had been floundering a bit before taking their last 2 games of the San Diego series, but I don't see the winning continuing for them vs the hot Braves right now. Atlanta has won 6 in a row and their pitching has been superb over that stretch as they have allowed just 9 runs in their last 6 games. Last week Atlanta won 2 of 3 in Miami and held the Fish to just 6 runs in the 3 games. That is not good news for a Marlins team that has averaged just 2.3 rpg in their last 10 games, while hitting just .195 in their last 5 games. Offensively the Braves have hit just .224 in their last 10 games, but they have averaged 4.5 rpg over that stretch and they have averaged 4.61 rpg at home. Mark Buerhle has pitched very well for Miami and is 3-1 with a 3.77 ERA in his last 5 starts vs Miami, but in 1 career start here he does have a 6.00 ERA, despite a 1-0 record and on the road this year he is 3-6 with a 4.23 ERA. Tommy Hanson has really struggled with his ERA of late as he has a 6.58 ERA in his last 7 games, but he also has a 4-1 mark in those games thanks to an offense that has averaged 7 rpg over that stretch and a Pen that has allowed just 5 runs in those 7 starts. Tommy has pitched well vs the Marlins of late as he is 3-1 with a 1.42 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. That Atlanta pen was to be the strength of this team and they have performed that way of late, posting a 1.97 ERA in their last 10 games. Too many advantages here for Atlanta as they make it 16-6 in Tommy's starts on the year. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Against all dogs of +100 to +150 if they average 4.1 rpg or less and their starter has an ERA of 3.70 or less on the year, vs a team who's starter has an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20. This play is 75-30 since 1997.
Tony George
LA Dodgers -135
LA has crawled back in the race here and are red hot coming off a sweep of the Giants over the weekend series and are on a 8-3 run their last 11 games. The D Backs look tasty here as a dog as they have also went 7-3 their last 10 games, but ALL of those games were at home and now they take to the road and face Aaron Harang on the hill for LA, whose ERA at home of under 3 is impressive. The D Backs are not bankable on the road, and have won just 6 out of their last 19 roadies and their starter Cahill is not near as good on the road as at home and the D Backs always struggle on offense on the road.
SPORTS WAGERS
SEATTLE -104 over Toronto
Adam Lind, Jose Bautista and J.P. Arencibia have accounted for more than one third of the Blue Jays home runs this season. All three guys are currently out of the lineup. With Ricky Romero taking the mound today, it’s not like they can rely on pitching to compensate for the loss of offense. Romero has taken the loss in each of his last six starts, giving up 33 earned runs in 28.1 IP, while striking out only 16 and walking 22. Romero is frail right now and nothing in his skill set, mindset or second half history suggests a turnaround.
The Mariners have won four straight and seven of nine. Hisashi Iwakuma’s skills thus far do not exactly scream success (4.06 xERA) but there are some positive signs. Iwakuma has been able to induce groundballs at an elite 54% rate and as a result, his current 24% HR/F should regress significantly. Iwakuma has not brought to the majors the pinpoint control he exhibited in his final season in Japan but he’s beginning to settle in after just four starts and 51 career innings. Notably, Iwakuma is coming off a pair of strong starts, Yankees (6H, 1 ER in 5 IP) and Tampa (6 IP 6 H 2 ER), and appears to be much more comfortable in the starter’s role. He’s definitely under the radar while Ricky Romero remains one of the biggest risks in the game.