Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 5,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Red Sox and Rays meet in the opener of a crucial three game series in Tampa this evening when Matt Garza matches serves with Clay Buchholz. Gar takes the mound with wins in four of his last five team starts. He's also 10-3 in his last 13 home team starting efforts. With Buchholz just 2-5 throughout his career during the month of July, look for the Rays to capture the opener here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

Cajun Sports
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LAA Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
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The LA Angels travel to the second city for a four-game series against the host White Sox beginning on Monday July 5. Chicago is 29-19 when playing against a team with a win percentage of 54 percent to 62 percent over the last two seasons. We want to Play ON MLB favorites in this price range who average 4.5 or fewer runs per game against a starter whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.70, with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game. Playing on these favorites has produced a record of 56-16 for 77 percent winners and a profit of over thirty-two units. We will lay the chalk with the host as the Sox grab the first game of this series against the Angels on Monday night.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Chicago White Sox 5 LA Angels 2

Craig Trapp
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Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -1.5
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Love playing super hot power pitchers. Without a doubt Hernandez is back to his last season domination. Shutting out the NYY in a complete game shutout shows how good he is running. In fact his last four starts he is 3-0 with 3 complete games, 5 ER's and 37 K's! KC turns to Bannister after being shut out on Sunday. Not good news as Banniester is 1-3 in last four starts. Even worse night starts he is 3-6 with a 7.76 ERA. When Hernandez wins he has covered the R/L in all of his last 5 winning starts. Great value here!

Rob Vinciletti
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New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: New York Yankees
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The Yankees fit a nice 70% system that plays on certain road favorites off a home favorite win vs an opponent off a road dog win and scored 4 or less runs. The Yanks have controlled the series the past few seasons winning 14 of the last 18 times. They are a solid 8-2 this season on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and have exploded for 18 runs the past 2 days. Oakland starter Ben Sheets looks to be tiring as the innings start to accumulate. His era is 5.21 over his past 3 starts. The Yankees counter with J. Vazquez who has been up and down all year. However he has pitched well in the vast dimensions of Oaklands park. He has allowed just 4 runs in 13 innings there over his last 2 starts. The Yankees also have a superb 2.98 road bullpen era. Look for New York to take game 1 tonight.

Sean Murphy

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers were tripped up by the Mariners on Sunday, but that should come as no surprise, as they were up against one of the best pitchers in baseball, Cliff Lee.

I'm confident we'll see Detroit bounce back strong on Monday, and improve to 11-2 in its last 13 games as a favorite.
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The Orioles have avoided getting swept in each of their last two series', but that's about it. They remain an awful road team, currently sitting at 9-31 on the season. Going back to last season, they've won just 10 of their last 51 games away from home.

To make matters worse, the O's will be up against a left-handed starter who they've never seen before on Monday. They're hitting just .234 against southpaws on the road this season, and own an ugly 16-37 record in their last 53 games against left-handed starters.
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Kevin Millwood gets the call for the Orioles. Baltimore has won each of his last three starts, but don't give Millwood too much credit. He's posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over that stretch. Note that he's made it through the sixth inning only once in his last six starts.

Millwood owns a 1-7 team record in his eight road outings this season. It's not as if he's had much help, as the O's are giving him just two runs per start away from home.
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As a member of the Texas Rangers last year, Millwood made a pair of starts in Detroit. He was winless in those two appearances, dropping 6-4 and 4-3 decisions. You would have to go back to September of 2006 to find the last time he won at Comerica Park.

Andrew Oliver will get his third start of the season for the Tigers. He has yet to notch a victory, but has certainly pitched well enough to do so in each of his first two outings. Keep in mind, those losses came in Atlanta and Minnesota, where the Braves and Twins own two of the strongest home field edges in the majors.
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Oliver has allowed 13 hits, but just four earned runs over 12 innings of work. He's struck out 10 while walking only three. He'll have the advantage of facing the Orioles for the first time, and should benefit from taking the mound at pitcher friendly Comerica Park.
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This is a mismatch no matter how you look at it. The Tigers should bounce back nicely after Sunday's setback while the Orioles will come back to Earth following a rare road victory. Take Detroit.

THE PREZ

Giants @ Brewers
PICK: Over 8.5
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Jonathan Sanchez has now thrown three straight non-QS outings (1-1, 6.23 ERA with 11 walks to 15 K's). In his last start the southpaw lasted only five innings allowing six hits and four earned runs while striking out four. While the Giants' lefty has kept all outings this season to four earned runs or less and his ERA at a decent 3.26, his FB percentage and his gopher-itis continues to grow; and away from pitcher-friendly ATT Park Sanchez is an implosion waiting to happen. Strikeouts are his only saving grace. He is averaging a K/9 of 8.81 this season, but that is straight-line decline after posting a 12.2 in April (7.2 in May and 8.2 in June). Expect the Brewers to send more than one of Sanchez's offerings into the outfield bleachers today in this post-Independence daytime contest.
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The Crew's right-hander Dave Bush, taking the ball after nine days of rest, pitched six innings and allowed two earned runs, once again taking advantage of a non-power lineup against Seattle, this two starts back. In his last outing, one against another soft-hitting Houston lineup Bush was able to scatter five hits and five walks in a loss to the Astros. The veteran Brewer has a 3-6 record with a 4.43 ERA despite 11 of his 19 starts coming against offenses that rank, or did rank, in the bottom 25 percent of the league.
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Bush is one of those pitchers who has consistently had a good looking skill set, 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 K/9’s 7.1/6.5/5.3/7.1 and BB/9’s 1.6/2.1/2.9/1.5, but the results have never translated to gameday or season ending numbers (ERA’s 4.41/5.12/4.18/6.38). His FB percentage continues to grow (FB%, 34%/38%/41%/45%) and his propensity to give up the long ball (29 home runs allowed in 185 innings in 2008 and 19 home runs allowed in 114.1 innings in 2009) tells you all you need to know. When hitters make contact with Bush's average arm speed they are squaring up on his offerings (LD% 22%). Bush is 11-2 to the OVER in home tilts when oddsmakers open the total between 7 to 8.5 over the last three seasons.
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The Giants are 9-2 to the OVER in road games against bullpens that have failed in 38% or more of their save opportunities and 13-4 to the OVER versus teams (Brewers) that allow 4.8 or more runs per game on the season this season.
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The Brewers are 8-0 to the OVER when playing on Monday this season.

3* Play on OVER 8.5 runs

JIM FEIST
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LOS ANGELES ANGELS / CHICAGO WHITE SOX
PLAY: LOS ANGELES ANGELS
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Scott Kazmir was the ace for the Tampa Bay Rays. However, since coming over to the LA Angels he's struggled. In fact, Kazmir can point to one reason for his struggles, his slider. Kazmir has had problems most of the season locating his slider, which in turn has made him mainly a fastball/changeup type pitcher which is why he sits at the midway point of the season with a 7-7 record and 5.67 ERA. Kazmir has been using the slider a lot from the bullpen, but has little confidence in the pitch from the mound. Look for that to change now that he's gaining more confidence with the once devastating pitch. What's even more surprising is that Kazmir has been more effective on the road this season than at home. Kazmir is 5-3 away with a 4.73 ERA compared to his home 2-4 record and 7.28 ERA. In addition, opposing batters are hitting almost 60 points less against Kazmir on the road. Gavin Floyd will start for the Whitesox. Floyd is 3-7 this season with a 4.66 ERA. Floyd is just 1-2 at home this year with a 4.98 ERA and .277 opponent batting average. At this point I have more belief in Kazmir than I do in Floyd. Plus Kazmir is pitching well on the road and if he can start using that slider more he will be more like the pitcher he was with the Rays. Take the Angels here on Monday as a nice little dog.

EZWINNERS
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Seattle Mariners -200
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The Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez is back in the form that nearly won him the AL Cy Young last year. Hernandez pitched a two-hitter in his last start, striking out eleven and walking three in his first shutout of the season against the Yankees in New York. Over his last three starts Hernandez is 2-0 with an ERA of only 1.00 and I expect another dominate performance by him here against the Royals. Kansas City send Brian Bannister to the mound for this start and Bannister has been hit hard recently. In his last three starts Bannister is 1-2 with an ERA of 5.79. The Mariners have hit him well in the past and I expect them to do so again in this game. The Mariners are 15-5 in the last twenty meetings between these two teams in Seattle and I expect their winning ways in this series to continue. Play on the Mariners.

MTi Sports
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Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Cubs are 0-8 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and the Diamondbacks are 6-0 THIS season as a favorite in the first game of a home series. Further, Chicago is a very poor 3-17 as a dog in their first game of a road series and 0-4 in franchise history with Tom Gorzelanny when they won the last time he started vs this opponent. Consider laying this small price.

Steve Merril

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

The Cubs limp into their series with the Arizona Diamondbacks having lost four of five and nine of their last 13 games. Tom Gorzelanny will make the start. He's 2-5 with a 3.34 ERA in 10 starts this season. The left hander is making his second start after moving back into the rotation from the bullpen. Gorzelanny has already defeated the Diamondbacks, but that was at home in Wrigley Field. Stephen Drew (6-15), Justin Upton (4-10), Chris Young (4-7), Tony Abreu (2-7), Rusty Ryal (2-5), Cole Gillespie (1-3), and Augie Ojeda (1-1) all have good numbers against the lefty. Arizona is hitting .275 as a team at home while averaging 5.5 runs per game. Arizona’s Ian Kennedy finally gets to pitch at home. Kennedy has lost three straight starts which were all on the road. He believes he has fixed a mechanical flaw during a bullpen session earlier this week. At home, Kennedy is 1-1 with a 2.41 ERA in six outings this season. He has already defeated the Cubs at Wrigley Field when the wind was blowing out. In that game, he gave up five runs and six hits in eight innings of work. Derrek Lee (0-4), Alfonso Soriano (0-3), Geovany Soto (0-2), Xavier Nady (0-1), and Tyler Colvin (0-1) are all looking for their first hits off of Kennedy. Chicago is just 15-24 on the road averaging only 3.8 runs per game away from Wrigley. They have scored just 12 runs over their last seven games which were all at home. The Cubs have also scored just 14 runs in their last six road games. Chicago’s offense is in a major slump so we’ll recommend playing Arizona minus the short price in this game this afternoon.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on LA Angels +134

The Angels aren't getting the respect they deserve tonight. The Angels have won both previous meetings this season and 5 of the last 6 overall. They have won 5 of their last 6 road games and 9 of their last 10 as a road underdog. In addition, Kazmir has been at his best on the road this season. As a result, the Halos are a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. They are also 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog. It must be mentioned that the Sox have really struggled against lefty starters, only hitting .226 against them on the year. While Floyd has been pitching well for the Sox, we can't overlook the fact that they are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite and 2-6 in his last 8 series opening starts. The Angels have been a solid road club all year, and the White Sox are just 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Halos showing good value tonight.

Tom Freese

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay starter Matt Garza beat Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka in Boston in his last start winning 9-4 Their is nothing to say that it will be any different when they meet in Tampa Bay. Garza is 10-6 in his 16 starts this year. The Red Sox are 3-7 with Matszaka off a loss. Boston is walking into a hornets nest here vs. a Tampa Bay team who has won 4 of their last 5 games. The Red Sox are 1-7 vs. Garza at Tampa Bay. Garza is 10-3 his last 13 starts vs. the Red Sox.

SPORTS WAGERS
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DETROIT –1½ +1.16 over Baltimore
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The Tigers will send out Andy Oliver to make just his third major league start and the best news in terms of wagering is that Oliver is 0-2 and that makes him undervalued. Fact is, he could easily be 2-0 after throwing two rock-solid games against Atlanta and Minnesota, both on the road. In 12 innings, Oliver allowed just four earned runs while walking three and striking out 10. Oliver has four pitches that he commands well and watching him you can’t help but be impressed by his smooth and easy delivery. Now he’ll take a huge step down in class against an O’s team that has won four times in 16 games against lefties on the road. Overall, the O’s are 7-20 vs southpaws. Kevin Millwood is coming off a horrendous 8.82 ERA in June. Millwood won his last two games, which is once again proof how misleading W/L records can be. Over those two starts in which Millwood pitched the minimum five innings in both to qualify for a win, he allowed 16 hits, walked four and struck out five in those 10 innings. In five innings against the Marlins he threw 116 pitches and followed that up by throwing 108 pitches in five frames against the A’s. Millwood is not fooling anyone. He’s 35-years-old and his arm looks dead. He’ll pitch in the scorching heat today in a matinee game against a kid with a live arm, who can’t wait to get out there. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units).

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CHICAGO –1½ +1.42 over L.A. Angels
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The Angels had a breakout day yesterday by scoring 11 times but they faced an unproven career minor-leaguer named Anthony Lerew. Prior to that they were struggling miserably at the plate and you can expect more of that here against Gavin Floyd. Floyd (90 BPV, 5-5-4-5-3 PQS) is coming off a 2.58 ERA in June, has a 50% GB% for the year, hasn’t coughed up a HR in his last five starts and has allowed only two walks in his last three outings. Over his last five starts Floyd has allowed just five earned runs and has been the AL’s best pitcher over that stretch with an ERA of 1.26. Furthermore, the South Side is 8-1 over its last nine home games and they’re coming off a series win in Texas against the previously red-hot Rangers. The real kicker here, however, is betting against Scott Kazmir. Kazmir (6 BPV, 5-3-3-0-0 PQS) remains primarily a two-pitch pitcher without his once-lethal slider, something that hasn’t worked well for most of the season and not at all recently, as suggested by his last two PQS scores of zero. The signs say bet against him and that 1.2 hr/9 against a RH-leaning CHW lineup in HR-happy U.S Cellular Field. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).

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TEXAS –1½ +1.00 over Cleveland
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First off, the Indians are now without Russell Branyan and Shin-Soo Choo, Combined, that duo has 23 jacks and 67 RBI’s. The rest of the team is loaded with guys that have anywhere between 1 and 6 bombs. This team was struggling offensively before Choo and Branyon went down and now one really has to wonder where the offense will come from. In order to win or cover the 1½-runs here, the Indians are going to have to score at least five times or more and that’s a huge stretch. They’ll face a rookie they’ve never seen by the name of Omar Beltre. Beltre hasn't pitched in the U.S. since '04 due to the inability to obtain a work visa. Beltre was pitching in the Dominican Summer League between '05 and '09. He has a nice assortment of pitches including a 90-96 mph fastball thrown with very quick arm action. His best pitch may be his hard splitter, which he buries deep in the strike zone and induces his fair share of groundballs. Beltre rounds out his arsenal with a good slider and in his first start against the Angels he struck out six in four frames. With that first start out of the way and a much-easier opponent here, expect better things from Beltre. Besides, the Indians will send out career stiff Aaron Laffey. Laffey shut down a struggling TOR offense in his last start, but his career and year-to-date numbers scream that the light-groundballer is very likely going to get ruined at this park. Play: Texas –1½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

Dwayne Bryant

ARI (-123) vs CHC
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Kirk Gibson taking over in 'Zona isn't going to magically make them a contender, but their level of play should pick up some. They lost 2 of 3 at home to the Dodgers, but they should find the Cubs more to their liking. Ian Kennedy's last 3 starts were all on the road (at Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Boston) and he got beat up a bit, as you would expect. But he's a completely different pitcher at home, where he owns a 2.41 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. The Cubs have scored three runs or fewer in SEVEN straight games. They are batting .205 during that span, going 7 for 50 with runners in scoring position. Looks like Kennedy's home success should continue.
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Tom Gorzelanny may own a 2.70 ERA in 3 road starts, but his road WHIP of 1.32 tells me he's been more lucky than good. Walking a batter about every two innings will eventually catch up with you. Today just might be that day for Gorzelanny. And as bad as Arizona's bullpen has been, the Cubs pen has been even worse lately. Chicago's pen owns a 9.24 ERA, 2.45 WHIP, and .345 OBA over their last 5 games.
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The D'backs are actually a decent team at Chase Field (19-20) and I think the matchup is right for them to get back to .500 at home today.