Matt Rivers
Mike Pelfrey has not been as good as the first six or so weeks to the season but I do think he is a little cheap here. I backed the Mets in this exact comp spot yesterday and cashed the ticket and will expect history to repeat itself today.
Aaron Harang is good but nothing more these days and should get outpitched here at Citi Field. The veteran right-hander is a little inconsistent as we see a quality start followed by a poor start.
The Mets are a little banged up again with Jose Reyes missing some action but all in all are a good team and are right there in the NL East. Jerry Manual has literally gone from being on a very, very hot seat to the potential Manager of the Year.
The Reds are a good team and I am somewhat sold on them but I'm still not buying into them being Division champion good. Sure Joey Votto is awesome and Bruce, Stubbs, Philips and Rolen are quality bats leading the way but Cincinnati is still not an upper echelon club or as good as these New Yorkers.
I expect Pelfrey to be very good, maybe not great but very good and at home laying only around double juice is a solid value. The Mets have been great at home all season long with Wright, Bay, Francouer and others and at what appears to be a cheapish price I'll make a small play on Pelfrey and the Amazins.
Pick: NY Mets
John Ryan
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Boston Red Sox
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
5* graded play on Boston as they take on the Rays set to start at 7:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Red Sox will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 58-17 making 33.2 units sine 2004. Play against all dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start and is a poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game on the season. Boston is 7-1 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor fielding teams turning 0.8 or less DP's/game this season. Rays starter Garza is just 1-7 (-9.2 Units) against the money line versus poor baserunning teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 42-11 (+28.4 Units) against the money line after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. Matsuzaka is pitching very well and had a near no hitter in Philadelphia on 5/22. Since that start he has not allowed more than 3 ER. With Rays offense struggling more and more of late and we strongly believe Matsuzaka will dominate them from start to finish. Take the Red Sox.
Rocketman
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: San Francisco Giants
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
San Francisco is now 41-40 overall this year while Milwaukee is 37-45 overall on the season. San Francisco is 140-86 since 1997 when playing on Monday's. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.29 ERA overall this year. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.31 ERA overall this year and a 5.54 ERA at home this season. Jonathan Sanchez has a 3.26 ERA overall this year. Dave Bush is 1-4 with a 4.87 ERA at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco today!
Hentai Sports
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners -1.5
Without a doubt Hernandez is back to his last season domination. Shutting out the NYY in a complete game shutout shows how good he is running. In fact his last four starts he is 3-0 with 3 complete games, 5 ER’s and 37 K’s! KC turns to Bannister after being shut out on Sunday. Not good news as Banniester is 1-3 in last four starts. Even worse night starts he is 3-6 with a 7.76 ERA. When Hernandez wins he has covered the R/L in all of his last 5 winning starts.
Glenn McGrew
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Royals at Mariners
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Safeco is a big park, tough to score runs in. KC starter Brian Bannister has very good control and has walked only 9 Mariners in 33 innings against better Seattle offenses than this one, last in the AL in runs scored. The Mariners have their ace on the mound in Felix Hernandez, who is on a red-hot tear with a 1.00 ERA his last three starts, fanning 28 in 27 innings. I can’t see many runs scored in this one.
Play the Royals/Mariners Under the total.
Nelly
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Boston + over Tampa Bay
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The last game where these teams met featured the exact same pitching match-up with Tampa Bay winning 9-4. Five runs for the Rays came from reliever Manny Delcarmen, who failed to record an out. Daisuke Matsuzaka had a solid start, allowing just four hits in six innings and he has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last six outings. Matsuzaka has strong numbers on the road and he has only allowed one home run in his last nine starts. In five of his last six starts he has allowed five or fewer hits. Tampa Bay is struggling on offense as well, batting just .237 in the last ten games against right-handed pitching. In those match-up the Red Sox are hitting .297 in that span and Matt Garza has struggled against the Red Sox. In his last home start versus Boston, Garza allowed six runs in five innings in an 11-3 loss. Garza has allowed three or more runs in each of his last seven starts and he has worse numbers at home for the year. Boston has won four of the last five meetings between these teams and the Red Sox are 20-7 in Matsuzaka's last 27 road starts. Boston has been the better team in recent weeks and with underdog value this should be a great opportunity.
Jeff Alexander
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -113
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Giants are really struggling, having lost 8 of their last 9, and I see their struggles continuing tonight with Sanchez on the bump. He has been solid for the most part this season, but he is carrying an ERA of 6.23 over his L3 starts. Plus, he has never had any luck against Milwaukee. Sanchez is 0-4 on the money in his career when starting against the Brew Crew with an ERA of 10.39. Bush has looked a lot better recently, posting a 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts. Plus, the Brewers are 17-8 in Bush's last 25 starts as a favorite. In addition, the Giants haven't had much luck in Milwaukee, losing 15 of their last 20 road games in this series. Take the Beer Makers at a nice price this afternoon.
Info Plays
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
3* on Seattle Mariners -200
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Reasons the Mariners win:
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (SEATTLE) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after a win by 4 runs or more. This is a 110-24 ML System hitting 82.1% since 1997. Bet Seattle at home.
Wunderdog
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -1½
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Seattle Mariners have a pair of aces and not much else within the starting rotations. One of those aces, Felix Hernandez takes the mound tonight to open the M's series with the Kansas City Royals. It is one thing to have an ace on the mound, but when that ace is "in the zone" as Hernandez is, opponents are going to struggle. Hernandez has pitched three straight complete games, and in his last four starts has gone at least 8.2 innings. He has been in the groove, allowing just 16 hits in the 35.2 innings, pitching to a 1.26 ERA. The Royals counter with a struggling Brian Bannister who has completed just 17 innings in his last four starts allowing 18 runs. The Royals are just 1-7 when Bannister gets the ball with a moneyline from +151 to +200. I like Seattle on the runline in this one.
Hollywood Sports
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Braves at Phillies
Play: Under
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
While the Braves' Derek Lowe has a modest 9-6 record with a 4.53 ERA, he typically does well against the Phillies. In 88 1/3 innings of work, Lowe has a 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .252 opponent's batting average. Lowe is heating up as the summer begins as he enjoys a 3.08 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over his last four starts. He faces off against Roy Halladay who has made a smooth transition to the senior circuit this season with his 9-7 record and 2.42 ERA. Halladay has been particularly tough at home this season given his 2.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a 2.57 opponent's batting average.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Both of these starting pitchers share a deeper sabermetric statistic that we consider important. Isolated Power (ISO) is a sabermetric determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Lowe and Halladay have low ISO's of .119 and .118 respectively which indicates they both have been very stingy regarding giving up extra-base hits. Why are statistics like ISO helpful for us? The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
Larry Ness
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Yankees begin a seven-game West Coast trip with a three-game series in Oakland. They've reached the midpoint of the 2010 season at 50-31 (on pace for 100 wins), which is the best record in MLB but they are still in a real fight in the AL East (Red Sox are 1 1/2 games back and the Rays two games back). The A's are 41-42 (just past the midpoint), eight games behind the first-place Rangers and 4 1/2 games behind the Angels. The A's have "hung tough" with some solid pitching, ranking 7th in MLB with a 3.85 ERA. Oakland returns home from a 4-2 road trip where its starters went 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA. The A's have won their last three home games and are 24-16 on the season in Oakland. The pitching matchup is Vazquez and Sheets. The Yanks had hoped that Vazquez would be able to match his excellent 2009 season with Atlanta (15-10, 2.87 ERA), here in his second go-round with the Yankees. However, that hasn't been the case, as he's 6-7 with a 5.11 ERA (team is 6-8). That's a sad record when pitching for MLB's best team. The A's took a chance on Sheets this year, signing him to a $10 million, one-year deal despite the fact he had missed all of last year after arm surgery. He's 3-7 with a 4.98 ERA in 17 starts with the A's going 6-11. Clearly, Sheets is healthy but the A's expected more. A closer look does reveal some positives. He's allowed three ERs or less in 11 of 17 starts and that includes SIX of his eight home starts. Sheets has been AWFUL on the road (0-5 witha 6.66 ERA / team is 1-8) but here at home is 3-2 with a 3.19 ERA (team is 5-3). His home record is pretty solid while Vazquez owns a 5.76 road ERA. Also note that the Yankees are 15-10 on the road vs righties (but just plus-$100 vs moneyline) while the A's are 19-11 in home night games vs righties, going plus-$785 vs the moneyline. I'm taking a shot with the home dog.
VEGAS EXPERTS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Cubs are 0-8 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and the Diamondbacks are 6-0 THIS season as a favorite in the first game of a home series. Further, Chicago is a very poor 3-17 as a dog in their first game of a road series and 0-4 in franchise history with Tom Gorzelanny when they won the last time he started vs this opponent. Consider laying this small price.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play on: Arizona Diamondbacks
Frank Jordan
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
LAA Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: LAA Angels
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Angels played the late ESPN game on Sunday night but left LA with a bang as they won going away 11-0. Scott Kazmir has been up and down this year with a 7-7 record, but the main concern is the era that is over 5.50. Kazmir has pitched better on the road with a 5-3 record and an era under 4.75. Look for Kazmir to throw a gem to follow up Pineiro's gem last night. Play LA Angels
MATT FARGO
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Chicago Cubs
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Cubs are coming off another disappointing homestand but I feel there is a lot of value with them today. There are not many teams with worse records than Chicago but Arizona happens to be one of those and the Diamondbacks are certainly not playing good baseball either. Arizona is 18 games under .500 on the season including a losing record at home so there has been no real advantage coming from Chase Field this season. The Cubs send Tom Gorzelanny to the mound and he has been one of the few bright spots in the rotation despite not getting many wins. He has a 3.14 ERA on the season including a very potent 1.86on the road. He has not been winning because of a lack of run support but that could change here. The Diamondbacks are hitting just .196 against left-handed pitching over the last 10 games and they are just 5-12 against lefty starters this season. They send Ian Kennedy to the hill and after a strong start, he has hit a small skid which could very well continue. One of his poorer efforts early in the season when he was on fire came against the Cubs as he allowed five runs on six hits in a non-quality outing. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing record while the Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight games against the National League West. 3* Chicago Cubs
Jack Jones
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Texas Rangers -1.5 -105
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Rangers have dropped two straight series vs. the Angels and White Sox, and I expect them to come out with a big effort Monday because of it. Look for Texas to put up a big number on Indians starter Aaron Laffey, who is 1-2 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.625 WHIP this season. Laffey has allowed 22 earned runs and 58 base runners in 35.2 innings this year while striking out just 21 batters. Laffey is 1-1 with an 8.40 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in 3 career starts vs. Texas. He has allowed 14 earned runs and 35 base runners in 15 innings over those 3 outings.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Texas is 29-14 at home thius season, hitting .299 and scoring 6.0 RPG. The Indians are just 15-27 on the road, hitting .249 and scoring 4.0 RPG. Texas is 20-6 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. They are winning in these spots by 2.3 RPG. The Rangers are 37-13 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. I find Texas winning in this spot by 2.2 RPG as well. Finally, the Rangers are 31-10 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season, winning by 2.4 RPG. Every trend shows there's a very good chance the Rangers win this game by 2 runs or more. Take Texas on the Run Line Monday.