SPORTS ADVISORS
Florida (43-40) at San Francisco (44-37)
The Marlins open a seven-game West Coast road trip with left-hander Sean West (3-2, 4.06 ERA) on the mound at AT&T Park against the Giants’ Matt Cain (9-2, 2.48).
Florida wrapped up a 5-1 homestand with Sunday’s 5-0 victory over the Pirates, getting an eight-inning, 12-strikeout performance from Ricky Nolasco. The Marlins have won five straight Monday contests, but they are on slides of 1-5 on the highway and 6-14 on the road against right-handed starters.
San Francisco took two of three from the Astros over the weekend, dropping Sunday’s finale 7-1 after winning the first two games by the combined score of 22-0. The Giants are on streaks of 39-20 at home, 8-3 against teams from the N.L. East, 5-0 against southpaws and 9-4 at home against winning teams. They also own a 24-10 advantage over the Marlins in the last 34 played at AT&T Park.
West is making just his third road start of the season, giving up five runs on eight hits in 12 2/3 innings on the highway to this point. On Tuesday he allowed five runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings but his offense bailed him out with a 7-5 victory at home against the Nationals. Back on June 8, West dominated the Giants in a 4-0 home victory, allowing just two hits over a career-high eight innings.
Cain has been dominant all season and has held the opposition to one run or less in seven of his last nine outings with the Giants going 9-2 in his last 11, though they have dropped his last two starts. On Wednesday, Cain held the Cardinals to one run in seven innings but San Francisco fell 2-1.
Cain made two starts against Florida last season and gave up a combined four runs on 10 hits in 13 2/3 innings as the teams split. Overall, San Francisco is 3-1 when Cain toes the rubber against the Marlins and 12-2 in his last 14 outings against teams from the N.L. East. On the downside, with Cain on the hill they’re on slides of 17-35 against a winning team and 8-18 in series openers.
Florida is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 6-1 on Mondays and 4-0-1 against N.L. West competition. San Francisco has topped the total in 14 of its last 22 at home against left-handers, but otherwise the Giants are on “under” streaks of 5-0-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0 when Cain starts on Monday, 7-2 when Cain starts overall and 13-4 when he faces N.L. East squads. Finally, the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas (45-35) at L.A. Angels (45-35)
The top two teams in the American League West open their second three-game series in the last week when the Rangers send veteran Kevin Millwood (8-5, 2.80 ERA) to the mound at Angel Stadium to face Jered Weaver (8-3, 3.02).
These teams, who are now locked in tie atop the standings, met in Texas last week with the Rangers taking two of three. Texas has won five of six over its rivals this season after dropping nine of 14 a year ago. On Sunday, the Rangers completed a three-game sweep of the visiting Rays with a 5-2 victory – they’re fifth win in a row – while Los Angeles topped the Orioles 9-6 in Anaheim.
In addition to its ongoing five-game winning streak, Texas is on surges of 19-7 against A.L. West teams and 4-0 as a ‘dog, but it is just 1-4 in its last five on the road against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, the Angels are on runs of 9-3 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-1 in series openers, 5-2 on Monday and 12-5 against right-handed starters.
Millwood squared off with Weaver and the Angels on Wednesday and the Rangers’ veteran gave up four runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings, but got a no-decision as L.A. rallied in the top of the ninth inning to tie the game at 7 before Texas came back for a walk-off 9-7 victory. Texas has won five of Millwood’s last six starts, and Wednesday was the first time in eight outings that the right-hander has allowed more than three runs in a contest.
The Rangers have won both of Millwood’s starts against Los Angeles this season, with the pitcher surrendering six runs on 17 hits in 12 1/3 innings, after losing six of his previous eight starts against the Angels. Also, with Millwood pitching, Texas is on streaks of 7-0 in series openers, but 8-24 on the road and 5-11 against teams with a winning record.
Weaver got knocked around for seven runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings in Wednesday’s contest at Texas, he’s allowed 16 runs (15 earned) over 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts. He’s lost both outings against Texas this season, giving up a combined 10 runs. The Angels are just 2-5 in Weaver’s last seven starts against the Rangers, with the right-hander yielding three earned runs or more in five of his last nine against Texas.
With Weaver on the hill, the Angels on runs of 6-2 overall, 7-2 as a home favorite, 8-2 at home and 6-1 in series openers, but they’ve lost four of his last five against divisional rivals.
With Millwood on the mound, it’s been all “unders” for Texas lately, including 20-6-2 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 10-3-1 on Mondays, 9-2-2 as a ‘dog and 7-1-1 as a road pup. With Weaver pitching, the Angels are on “under” streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-1-1 as a home favorite and 4-1 in series openers.
As a team, the Rangers have topped the total in 16 of 23 Monday games, but they’re otherwise on “under” runs of 38-15-1 overall, 15-6 on the road, 23-8-1 against right-handed starters, 17-6-1 as an underdog and 21-7-1 against winning teams. The Angels are riding “over” streaks of 13-4-2 as a favorite, 5-2 in series openers, 9-3-1 against right-handed hurlers, 4-1 on Mondays and 9-3-1 as a home chalk.
Finally, the under is 5-0 in Millwood’s last five starts in Anaheim and 6-1-1 in Weaver’s last eight outings overall against Texas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Texas at LA Angels
The Angels look to build on their 8-2 record in Jered Weaver's last 10 starts. LA is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-145)
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.012; Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.055
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+145); Under
Game 953-954: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.935; Cubs (Wells) 14.461
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115); N/A
Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Vasquez) 14.476; Houston (Hampton) 15.866
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-145); Over
Game 957-958: Washington at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 16.210; Colorado (Marquis) 15.277
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-215); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+195); Over
Game 959-960: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Silva) 14.363; Arizona (Garland) 16.323
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 11
Vegas Line: Arizona (-175); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-175); Over
Game 961-962: Florida at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (West) 15.859; San Francisco (Cain) 15.584
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+165); Under
Game 963-964: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 16.177; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.391
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+140); Under
Game 965-966: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 15.033; Detroit (Galarraga) 14.236
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+135); Over
Game 967-968: Oakland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 14.555; Boston (Smoltz) 17.333
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-230); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Over
Game 969-970: Texas at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 15.389; LA Angels (Weaver) 17.019
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-145); Over
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.561; Seattle (Washburn) 14.960
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Under
John Ryan
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia as they host the Reds set to start at 7:05 EST. The Phils have righted the ship after a horrid June sweeping the Mets over the weekend. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 64-25 mark making 37.2 units for 72% winners since 1997. Play on home teams that are good offensive teams scoring >=5.0 runs/game facing a good NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA<=3.70 and after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games. Take the Phils.
Cajun Sports
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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
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Comerica Park will be the site of a three-game set between the host Detroit Tigers and the visiting Kansas City Royals. Game One is set for Monday night with the first pitch at 7:05PM Eastern Time. Detroit will send right-hander Armando Galarraga to the bump with his 5-7 W/L record and ERA of 5.34 on the season. Galarraga is only 3-3 W/L at home with an ERA of 5.44 but over his last three outings he has received much better results going 2-0 W/L with an ERA of 4.41 and the Tigers have won all three of those games. He will be opposed by Royals right-hander Gil Meche who is 5-12 W/L with an ERA of 4.20 this season. Meche is 3-5 W/L on the highway with an ERA of 2.70 but he has struggled over his last three trips to the hill going 0-3 W/L with an ERA of 9.42. The Royals have found the going tough on the road this season posting a record of 13-22 W/L (-6.7) while their opponent has been solid at home with a record of 23-11 W/L picking up +9.2 units for their backers. Detroit is 8-0 W/L their last 8 at home including 6-0 W/L when installed as a home favorite. When Galarraga takes the hill in the role of a favorite the Tigers are 15-6 W/L and 5-1 W/L when he is a favorite of -110 to -150. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Detroit win by 2.2 runs and our Math Model also favors the host and has them winning by almost three runs. So lay the chalk as the Tigers roll past an overmatched Royals team on Monday night at Comerica Park in Detroit.
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Graded Selection: 2* Detroit Tigers 4 Kansas City Royals 1
Craig Trapp
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Under 9
Betting Trends
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-Under is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 overall.
-Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
-Under is 6-1-2 in Phillies last 9 overall.
-Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 home games.
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These two teams are very similar at this point of season. Both teams have been very poor at the plate recently. In fact in the last 10 games these two teams are only averaging PHI 3.4 and CIN 3.9 runs per game. Both of those are among the worst in the league! If that is not enough to convince you we have the best two pitchers of these staffs. Cueto for the Reds has struggled to get some wins recently but he still has a 3.00 ERA and he has downright nasty stuff. For PHI Hammells goes for them trying to get a much needed win. Hammells has been very good verse the Reds historically shutting them down going 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in 5 starts. No way this game goes over today. UNDER 9 CIN/PHI
LT Profits
Florida Marlins @ San Francisco Giants
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Usually, when a game has a low posted total of 7.5, it is a pitching matchup of two studs. While Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants may fit that billing here, Sean West of the Florida Marlins certainly does not, making the Over virtually an automatic play here at this number.
West is 3-2 with a pedestrian 4.06 ERA overall, and he recent performances have been even worse than that. He has just one Quality Start in his last four outings, putting up a 6.20 ERA with a disgusting 1.90 WHIP over those four starts. He is facing a San Francisco lineup that is actually putting up runs right now, averaging 5.60 runs over the last 10 games, and the Giants are surprising batting .304 vs. left-handed pitching at home over the entire year.
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Granted, Cain is 9-2 and is among the league leaders with his 2.48 ERA. However, with this total posted so low, he should not need to give up more than a couple of runs to ensure this game goes Over, given the current form of West. Besides, it is not is if Cain is unable to throw in a clinker now and then, as he did two starts back when he allowed five earned runs in seven innings vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Marlins are also hitting a hearty .299 vs. right handed pitching over the last 10 games, so we see no reason why these teams cannot score at least nine runs combined tonight.
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Pick: Marlins/Giants Over 7.5
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play on: Philadelphia/Cincinnati Under
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The Phillies swept the minor league looking Mets over the weekend, while the Reds struggled with the Cardinals. Here this evening down at the Bank, Cole Hamels (0-3, 7.02)looks to regain form against a quality hurler in RHP Cueto (8-4, 2.69). The key here is the stiff back Cueto has been suffering of late, if he is solid, we are very low this evening.
Jimmy The Moose
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Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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The Royals are 5-12 in their last 17 opening game of a series. The Royals have lost 5 of their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas City is 6-17 in their last 23 road games. In their last 16 games as a road dog they are 4-12. The Royals are 2-9 in Meche's last 11 starts. The Tigers have won their last 8 home games. Detroit is 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a right-handed starter. The Tigers have won 4 of Galarraga's last 5 starts. In his last 21 starts as a favorite the Tigers are 16-5. The Royals have dropped 4 of the last 5 meetings. Play on the Detroit Tigers -.
Black Widow Sports
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1* on Texas Rangers +125
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Kevin Millwood will take the mound with a chip on his shoulder Monday night. Despite going 8-5 with a 2.80 ERA this season, Millwood failed to get voted into the All-Star game. He is the biggest snub in the American League when it comes to starting pitchers. He’ll take down Jared Weaver who is 1-1 with a putrid 8.64 ERA in his last 3 outings. A big reason for this huge ERA was his last start which came against this same Rangers’ team on July 1st. Weaver gave up 7 earned runs in just over 5 innings as the Angels last 9-7. Texas will put another big number on Weaver Monday while Millwood pitches a gem to earn the victory. The Rangers are 16-6 (+16.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Texas is now 18-6 in all games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Finally, the Rangers are 8-2 (+7.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season. They can get to any good starting pitcher because of their stacked lineup, just as they did in scoring 7 runs on Weaver just 5 days ago. Take the Rangers on the Money Line.
Info Plays
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3* on Detroit Tigers -135
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Reasons why Detroit wins:
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1.) Gil Meche’s struggles will have the Tigers winning with room to spare. Meche is 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and 2.094 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That means he’s giving up more than 2 base runners per inning, and he has also allowed 5 home runs during this span. Armando Galarraga has dominated the Royals over the past 2 seasons, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 3 starts against Kansas City. The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 home games as well.
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2.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (KANSAS CITY) - with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts. This is a 47-14 ML System hitting 77% over the last 5 seasons. We’ll back the better starter and the better team playing at home where they are riding an 8-game winning streak Monday. Bet Detroit at home.
Bob Harvey
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Texas Rangers vs. LAA Angels
Play: Over 8½
It’s the marquee matchup on Monday night as the co-leaders in the AL West square off in Anaheim.
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The Rangers coming off a sweep of the Devil Rays send Kevin Millwood to the mound in the series opener. The Angels will counter with Jerod Weaver. Tonight’s two starters have at least two things in common. Both are having outstanding seasons and both were left off the all-start team.
Millwood, the ace of the Texas staff, is 8-5 with a 2.80 ERA. Weaver, who has developed into one of the top pitchers in the league, is 8-3 with a 3.10. I’m guessing that both pitchers will be out to prove the all-star snub was one big flub by Terry Francona. However Weaver has struggled in his last three starts going 1-2 with a WHIP of 1.80 and an ERA of 8.10. The OVER has cashed in each of his last three starts. Millwood over the same stretch is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA and is 2-1 to the high side.
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Tthe Angels have suddenly become an OVER machines. The Halo’s are 6-3-1 to the high side in their last ten games and lead the Majors with a .280 batting average. They’re also among the leaders with a 5.21 runs per game average. For the year they’ve topped the number to the tune of 23-16 at home and 42-34-1 overall.
The Angels bullpen has also been on over players best friend this year. The team’s 4.68 ERA is the fifth-worst in the league as the Halos have yielded at least six runs five times in the past 10 games.
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With Texas in town and the Yankeees coming up, this OVER trend should continue. Nine runs or better seems very doable tonight even with Millwood and Weaver duking it out.
Big Al McMordie
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Florida Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Florida Marlins
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Although this looks like a big mismatch on the mound, in favor of the SF Giants, I think the price is an overlay, given the Giants' weak offense, and can't pass up the Marlins at this price, even with Sean West on the hill. San Francisco is scoring just 4.2 runs per game, compared to Florida's offense which produces 4.6 runs per game. And Sean West has a respectable 4.06 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, including 3.55 on the road (with a 1.02 WHIP). Matt Cain does have better numbers than West, but the Giants have lost his last two starts. Finally, West shut out San Francisco back on June 8, when he hurled eight shutout innings and gave up just two hits, en route to a 4-0 Florida victory. Take the Marlins.
John Martin
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1 Unit on Florida Marlins +150
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This is too good of value to pass up Monday, so I’ll pull the trigger on the Marlins as my free pick. Florida has won 5 of their last 6 games, and they have been consistent on the road all season, posting nearly a .500 record away from home. Sean West has been a pleasant surprise as a starter for the Marlins this year, going 3-2 with a solid 4.06 ERA in 8 starts. The Giants have not hit lefty pitching well at all this season, scoring 4.2 runs/game with a .258 batting average against lefty starters. Matt Cain is having a great season, but that still doesn’t hide the fact that Cain is 13-29 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 games with a Total Set of 7.0-8.5 runs. Though San Francisco has a slight edge on the mound, Florida’s offense can make up for that in a hurry. Plus, Sean West dominated the Giants earlier this season, not allowing a single earned run on 2 hits and 1 walk in 8 innings of a 4-0 shut out victory back on June 8th less than a month ago. Cash in with the Marlins as the underdog.
DAVE COKIN
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TEXAS RANGERS / LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Take LOS ANGELES ANGELS
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Big series for both teams with things being so close right now in the AL West. The scheduling dynamics here favor the Halos, and they're also out to avenge the recent series loss at Texas. The Angels are also absolutely clobbering the ball right now and Vlad Guerrero is suddenly getting hot. With Weaver throwing the opener, I will side with the Angels.
JIM FEIST
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TEXAS RANGERS / LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Take TEXAS RANGERS
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Rangers and Angels are in a dead heat for first place in the NL West. The Rangers have won five straight games and seven of the last 10 while the Angels have won two games and seven of the last 10. Both teams are plus in run differential this season. Kevin Millwood starts tonight for the Rangers. Millwood is having another fine year with a 8-5 record and 2.80 era. The righthanded veteran has 150 career wins. Jered Weaver will start for the Angels. Weaver is 8-3 on the season with an equally fine 3.10 era. He's had a rough time this season against the Rangers, starting twice, going 0-1 with 13 1/3 innings and a 6.75 era. Always good value in a decent dog that matches up equally against their competition. Both teams are just about equal on all levels, though the Rangers have been the hotter team of late. We'll take the dog here in a good valued spot.