Dominic Fazzini
Cincinnati +145 at PHILADELPHIA
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Dan Haren and the Diamondbacks scored a Free Play winner against the Rockies on Sunday. Now I'm turning to an underdog today to gain another.
The Phillies couldn’t have won the World Series last year with Cole Hamels, but the left-hander is not getting it done this season.
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Hamels (4-5, 4.98 ERA) is 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA in his past three starts and hasn’t won since June 4. That has some people wondering if Hamels’ problems are related to health or command, but he’s clearly not the same pitcher he was in 2008, when he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA.
The southpaw got battered Wednesday by Atlanta, giving up a career high-tying seven runs on nine hits in four-plus innings. And you can bet the Philadelphia faithful won’t go easy on Hamels if he struggles today against the Reds.
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Cincinnati right-hander Johnny Cueto (8-4, 2.69) overcame a stiff back Wednesday and proceeded to allow one hit and strike out eight in six innings of a 1-0 victory over Arizona.
Cueto struggled in two starts before that, allowing 10 runs in 10 2/3 innings, easily his worst two outings of the season, but he’s been pretty reliable otherwise in his 16 starts, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA. And he’s been downright scary on the road, going 6-2 with a 2.14 ERA in nine starts.
Hamels is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in five career starts vs. Cincinnati, but I just can’t back him today with his recent struggles. Take the underdog Reds to gain the victory.
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2♦ CINCINNATI
Sports Gambling Hotline
Florida at SAN FRANCISCO
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Tonight we expect a pitcher's duel to develop when Florida visits San Francisco.
Florida starter Sean West worked 8 scoreless innings against the Giants back on June 8th in notching the win, and we feel he will need to be just as sharp tonight if his team is to have a chance at the win.
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San Francisco starter Matt Cain continues to shine, as he is off a 7 inning, 1 run no decision against St. Louis that lowered his season ERA to just 2.48.
Cain has also gone 1-0 in his last 4 starts against Florida, allowing just 10 runs in 28 innings of work.
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These teams have met 4 times already this season, 3 of the 4 have landed UNDER, with the other game being a push. Also, 2 of the last 3 games played in San Francisco last season stayed LOW.
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Have to look for another LOW scoring contest in this one.
3♦ UNDER
Karl Garrett
Texas at LA ANGELS -145
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The G-Man gave you a Sunday comp play winner on Philadelphia to make it a 5-2 comp play run the last 7 days.
AL West battle tonight in Anaheim, and I will lay the wood with Jered Weaver and his Angels, as LA and Texas make the quick turnaround.
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These teams just met in Arlington, Texas once again holding serve, as they are now 5-1 in the season series - ALL 6 meetings have come in Texas.
Weaver, and Kevin Millwood both struggled on July 1st, Millwood allowing 4 runs in 6 innings of work, while Weaver allowed 7 to score in 5 frames of work. Niether figured in the decision, but is should be noted that Millwood is just 2-4 on the road, with a 3.22 ERA, while Weaver is 5-1 at home with an ERA of 1.83.
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G-Man gonna look for the Halos to "hold serve" in this division showdown at home against the Rangers.
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1♦ LA ANGELS
Bobby Maxwell
Texas +130 at L.A. ANGELS
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Second straight FREE winner on Sunday when the Astros and Roy Oswalt took care of business in San Francisco. Tonight I'm handing you the Rangers as a comp winner in Anaheim against the Angels.
Texas is turning the tables on the Angels this season, taking five of the first six meetings between these two after losing nine of 14 last year. The Rangers just won two of three last week against Los Angeles and tonight's pitching matchup is the same that resulted in a 9-7 Texas victory. I love the Rangers behind Kevin Millwood (8-5, 2.80) tonight.
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Neither Millwood or Jered Weaver (8-3, 3.02) looked particularly sharp last Wednesday when Millwood gave up four runs on eight hits and Weaver allowed seven runs on eight hits. But Millwood has been consistent all season and he'll bounce back better than Weaver who has been looking like crap lately.
Wednesday was the first time in eight starts Millwood allowed more than three runs in a game. Texas has won both his starts against the Angels this season and they have won the last seven times he's started a series.
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Weaver has been getting beaten up lately, giving up 16 runs in his last 16.2 innings. He hasn't looked very good against Texas in two starts this season and the Angels are just 2-5 in his last seven against the Rangers.
Texas has rattled off five straight wins to climb to the top of the A.L. West standings and look for this team to continue to fight. They are getting consistent pitching and we all know they have the sticks to win it. I love Millwood and the Rangers catching plus-money in this one. Play Texas.
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4♦ TEXAS
IndianCowboy
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Take the San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+130) over the Florida Marlins
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I'm not a big fan of the run-line as you know and never have been, but at times, there is value in it. These two teams have hooked up prior this season and Sean West has faced the Giants. The last time the young Marlin faced the Giants he dominated them going 8 strong innings at home and giving up just 2 hits en route to a 4-0 win. It seems the league is having a bit more success figuring out the young man who is a native of Houston, Texas. I can't imagine San Fran taking it up the chin once again as they have had a good look at this kid and usually the second time around, it is the hitters that have the advantage. Tack that on and the fact that Sean has given up 22 hits over his last 14 innings roughly, and I think he will likely get hit well by the Giants today. Plus, Cain comes off a 1-2 loss at St. Louis where he picked up a no-decision and he is a sound 9-2 with a 2.48era. Cain has given up just 3 runs in his last 29 innings at home as well and I think that makes for a decent shot at -1.5 cover here. The Marlins are 1-4 when West is an Underdog and the Giants are 5-0 vs. a lefty of late and 6-0 when Cain starts as a favorite.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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TOR (+135) vs NYY
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New York Yankees captain Derek Jeter was an overwhelming selection to make his 10th All-Star appearance. It may only be a matter of time before Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero represents the AL in the Midsummer Classic, too. Jeter and the Yankees look to solve the Blue Jays? impressive rookie and extend a five-game winning streak against Toronto in the finale of a four-game series Monday; however I feel that we're getting great value on Romero and recommend a play on Toronto! Romero (6-3, 2.85) posted a 0.82 ERA in winning his last three starts and has not allowed a run in his last 20 innings. The 24-year-old left-hander gave up four hits over eight innings against a strong Tampa Bay lineup as Toronto won 5-0 on Wednesday. Andy Pettitte has been strong lately too, however he's a mediocre 1-1 with a 4.44 ERA in day games; expect this trend to continue. Good value on one of the leagues hottest pitchers; play on TORONTO!
Jr Tips
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TEXAS RANGERS vs. LA ANGELS
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Vladimir Guerrero will be out of the lineup tonight getting rest. Guerrero hit a tying two-run homer in Sunday's 9-6 win over Baltimore and has homered in consecutive games with seven RBIs over his last seven games. Guerrero is batting .397 with 22 home runs and 63 RBIs. Los Angeles (45-35) lost two of three against Texas last week and Los Angeles and Texas split 10 meetings in Anaheim last season. Jered Weaver (8-3, 3.10 ERA) takes the mound as the Angels go for their sixth win in seven home games. Weaver has gone 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA and .190 opponents' batting average although Weaver is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts versus the Rangers this year. The right-hander did not get a decision Wednesday after yielding a season-high seven runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 9-7 loss to Texas. Texas (45-35) will go for it's sixth consecutive victory and All-Star outfielder Josh Hamilton will be back tonight. Rangers ace Kevin Millwood (8-5, 2.80) makes his third start against the Angels this season as he yielded four runs over 6 1/3 innings Wednesday after going 4-1 with a 1.30 ERA in his previous five outings. Millwood, who defeated Los Angeles 10-8 with six innings of two-run ball May 15th is 1-3 with a 3.31 ERA in his last five starts in Anaheim. These two teams have faced the opposing pitchers a few times this season which gives the advantage to the hitters. Look for the bats to have continued success against these pitchers they just faced last week.
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TAKE OVER 8 1/2
Tom Freese
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Texas at La Angels
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Texas is 23-8-1 UNDER their last 32 games vs. righty starters and they are 22-6-1 UNDER vs. an opponent that allowed 5 or more runs in their last game. The Rangers are 20-6-2 UNDER in the last 28 starts made by Kevin Millwood and they are 15-6 UNDER their last 21 road games. The Angels are 27-10-2 UNDER with Jered Weaver on the mound if they are off a loss in their last game and they are 8-1-1 UNDER his last 10 starts as a home favorite. Weaver is 6-1-1 UNDER his last 8 starts vs. the the Rangers. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Weaver vs. Millwood)
VEGAS EXPERTS
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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
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Eight of the nine matchups this year between San Diego and Arizona have gone OVER the total with all three games in Arizona going OVER. San Diego starter Walter Silva has allowed 18 runs in his last three starts and has a 16.71 ERA in two road starts this season. The Padres have gone OVER in 14 of 17 road games on Monday as well as 16 of 23 road matchups against right-handed starters. The Diamondbacks have gone OVER in 16 of 23 games as a favorite of $1.25 to $1.75. Go with the OVER
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Play on: OVER
MTi Sports
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Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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Cincinnati just got pummeled by the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter by a 10-1 margin. The Reds have been amazing after a bad loss. Cincinnati is a perfect 12-0 THIS season after losing by at least five runs (p:margin<=-5 and team=Reds and season=2009). Hamels is off a bad start and he has shown no ability to turn things around. Indeed, Philadelphia is 0-6 with Hamels when he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start ? costing his backers 9.2 units. The Reds are 5-0 THIS season when Johnny Cueto starts with personal revenge and 4-0 with Cueto as a road dog. Consider the Reds.
Nelly
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UNDER San Diego at Arizona
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This series has featured a great deal of higher scoring games this season but the circumstances are different for Monday's game between Arizona and San Diego. The Padres are currently batting just .217 in the last ten games including .186 against right-handed pitching and San Diego traded away one of its better offensive players last night. At the halfway point of the season the Padres have averaged just 3.8 runs per game. In 13 of the last 20 games Arizona has scored four or fewer runs and the Diamondbacks are batting just .231. Jon Garland has allowed just eight earned runs in his last four starts and although his record is poor he has pitched well in recent games. Walter Silva has had a few rough outings this season but he has also pitched well in several games. With a total set high this game should stay 'under'.
Ben Burns
Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
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After getting blown out by a combined score of 22-0 in their games on Friday and Saturday, the Astros bounced back big on Sunday with a 7-1 win at San Francisco. Salvaging a game in their series with the Giants gives them some momentum as they head back home to Houston. At Minute Maid Park on Monday, look for the Astros to take advantage of a Pirates team that struggles on the road and also sends a "raw" pitcher to the mound.
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Virgil Vazquez gets the start for Pittsburgh Monday. Vazquez has only made five starts so far in the majors. Three were in 2007 with Detroit and he's made two so far this season with the Pirates. Already Vazquez was much shakier in his second start than his first. After a solid effort against the Royals, Vazquez had more walks than strikeouts against the Cubs and he walked three and gave up seven hits in his six innings. Both starts for Vazquez this season came at home and note that in four career road games - three starts - Vazquez has an ugly 9.49 ERA. Note that the Pirates are 15-28 on the road this season. Pittsburgh is also 11-23 in divisional games this season.
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The Astros are 20-12 this season when playing against a team with a losing record and they should be able to take advantage of another losing team here. The Astros turn to Mike Hampton for this start. The southpaw has dominated Pittsburgh throughout his career. Hampton is 13-3 against the Pirates in his career with a 2.44 ERA and a .233 BAA. The long-term domination for Hampton against the Pirates certainly hasn't changed this season. He's 3-0 vs. Pittsburgh with a 0.90 ERA and a .171 BAA so far in 2009.
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Hampton may indeed be the last pitcher the Pirates want to see right now. Pittsburgh got shutout yesterday and that was the 21st time this season that it's scored one run or less in a game. With Hampton's long-term dominance of the Pirates, don't be surprised if this is yet another game where the Pittsburgh bats are kept quiet. Also, the Pirates Freddy Sanchez hasn't played since Thursday and he's their leading hitter. That's certainly not helping the Pittsburgh offense and he could be out again on Monday. Consider laying the wood.
Jeff Benton
Cincinnati +150 at PHILADELPHIA
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I returned to action Sunday with a free-play winner on the Phillies, so I’ve now hit two freebie winners in a row and four of my last six. I’m going to keep this run going Monday by playing against Philadelphia tonight as it hosts Cincinnati.
Yes, the Phillies swept the Mets over the weekend, but that doesn’t impress me because the Mets’ offense – they scored three runs total in the series – is a disaster right now. Also, prior to hosting New York, Philadelphia had lost six straight and eight of nine at home and was just 13-22 at Citizens Bank Park for the season.
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And yes, the Phillies have ace Cole Hamels on the hill tonight, but this Hamels has been extremely ordinary this season. He’s 4-5 with a 4.98 ERA overall, including 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA (and a 1.80 WHIP!) in his last three starts. In fact, the Phillies have dropped four straight behind Hamels – all as a hefty favorite – by scores of 8-3, 2-1, 6-1 and 11-1.
On the flip side, Reds youngster Johnny Cueto got back on his game in his last outing, holding Arizona to a single hit over six scoreless innings of a 1-0 home win. Despite allowing five runs in each of his previous two starts, Cueto is still 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA this season; he’s 6-2 with a 2.14 ERA in nine road starts (seven of which Cincy has won); and he’s got a sterling 78-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just 84 hits in 103 2/3 innings (compare that to Hamels, who has allowed 107 hits in 85 innings).
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The Reds come into this game with a respectable .500 record (20-20 at home; 20-20 on the road), and they’ve been torching lefties of late, batting a cool .331 against southpaws over the past 10 games. Cincinnati, which got rocked 10-1 by Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals yesterday, hasn’t lost consecutive games in 11 days, and to get the Reds with Cueto at this kind of a plus price versus a struggling Hamels is too good to pass up. Ride the underdog here.
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4♦ CINCINNATI
Michael Cannon
Kansas City at DETROIT -130
Take the Tigers for the home win over the Royals tonight.
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Detroit will start Armando Galarraga and although the right-hander has struggled this year, he has posted consecutive victories in his last two starts.
Galaragga has pitched well against Kansas City in his career, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts.
The Royals will start Gil Meche, who has lost three straight starts. The right-hander has posted a 9.42 ERA in that span and is just 4-8 on the year.
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The Tigers have won four of six against the Royals this season.
Make it five of seven after tonight.
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Take the Tigers as they grab the home win.
3♦ DETROIT
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the pup Nationals at Coors.
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Obviously the way Colorado has been playing they are far superior than the 24-55 Nationals but after winning the last two games and the series against the Braves why not take back this generous number!?!?!?
Washington is really not that dismal of a team. Yes the record is beyond pathetic but this club does have some ability with guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Nyjer Morgan. Plus Chris Stamman has shown some signs of late of actually being a big league hurler and has the potential to be alright here. The guy went into Yankee Stadium and completely shocked the world in shutting down the Yankees. He is in another ridiculosuly tough spot here but at this takeback why not!?!?
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Jason Marquis is coming off of that masterpiece and really has had a successful season but once you trust the former Brave/ Cardinal/ Cub then you are asking for trouble. The righty certainly eats a ton of innings and is overall solid but he will have a quality performance and then wet the bed. If I am right about this then it'll be an uncomfortable night's sleep for Marquis and at this number I'll take my chances with Stammen and the Nats.
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1♦ Nationals