The Spread
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, 7:05PM ET
Games over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO CUBS is 11-7 (+2.9 Units) against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.6 Units)
Games this season
ATLANTA is 2-1 (+0.7 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)
All games at CHICAGO CUBS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO CUBS is 4-2 (+0.9 Units) against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)
Pick: Chicago
Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, 10:10PM ET
Games over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 13-12 (-0.4 Units) against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
13 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.8 Units)
Games this season
SEATTLE is 4-2 (+2.2 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)
All games at SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 8-7 (-0.7 Units) against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.8 Units)
Games played at SEATTLE this season.
SEATTLE is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)
Pick: Baltimore
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, 1:05PM ET
Games over the last 3 seasons
NY YANKEES is 23-18 (-1.4 Units) against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
24 of 39 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.8 Units)
Games this season
NY YANKEES is 4-1 (+3.0 Units) against TORONTO this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)
All games at NY YANKEES over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-12 (+0.2 Units) against NY YANKEES over the last 3 seasons
11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.1 Units)
Games played at NY YANKEES this season.
NY YANKEES is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against TORONTO this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)
Pick: Toronto
Rocketman
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Texas Rangers vs. LAA Angels
Play: Texas Rangers
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Both teams come in with identical 45-35 records on the season. Texas is 15-4 this year against division opponents. Texas has now won 5 games in a row. Kevin Millwood is 8-5 with a 2.80 ERA overall this year, has a 3.22 ERA on the road and 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA his last 3 starts. Jered Weaver has a whopping 8.64 ERA his last 3 starts. Texas is 5-1 overall vs LA Angels this year. Millwood has a 3.90 ERA overall vs LA Angels since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!
Scott Rickenbach
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Seattle vs Baltimore
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Cool weather has returned to the Pacific Northwest and we expect a pitchers duel in Seattle's return home to Safeco Field for tonight's match-up. The Mariners 3.21 ERA is tops in the American League and leads the #2 team by nearly half a run! The Mariners bullpen has a 1.08 ERA against the Orioles this season with just 8 hits allowed in 16.2 innings. Also, Seattle sends Jarrod Washburn to the mound as tonight's starter and he held the Orioles to just one earned run on six hits in seven innings of work in his only start against the O's this season. At home, Washburn has produced four straight quality starts and he's held opponents to a .228 BAA at Safeco Field.
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Brad Bergesen of the Orioles is a rookie and, as the season has gone on, he's certainly not pitching like one any more. Bergesen is 4-0 in his last seven starts and six of those outings have qualified as quality starts. Bergesen's ERA has dropped by nearly two full runs - down to a 3.53 ERA - during this fantastic stretch of work. Also, he's 1-0 in two starts against the Mariners with a 1.20 ERA and Bergesen has held Seattle hitters to a .192 batting average. The Orioles bullpen is normally a concern but Bergesen has been pitching so well plus so deep into games that the bullpen is not as much of a factor here in what should be an absolute pitchers' duel between Bergesen and Washburn. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Seattle on Monday night.
Matt Fargo
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
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Baltimore dropped three of four in Los Angeles to drop to 12-26 on the road this season which is the worst road record in the American League and it is tied for 2nd worst in all of baseball. The fact that this price is as low as it is does not jive with that record. Seattle meanwhile is 21-15 at home and it returns to Safeco Field following a decent 5-4 road trip. The Mariners are 9-2 in their last 11 games at home and that includes a series win over Baltimore in the beginning of last month. Seattle sends Jarrod Washburn to the hill and the lefty has been very solid this season. He has a 3.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 15 starts even though the Mariners are just 6-9 in those games. His ERA drops to 3.00 in eight home starts and Seattle is a much better 5-3 in those games. Seven of those eight outings have been quality performances so he is keeping his team in every game for the most part. His lone non-quality game came against his former team the Angels who have become a nemesis as proven by his 5.01 ERA in 15 starts. He faces off against Bradley Bergesen who is also having a solid year and that is saying a lot for a Baltimore starting pitcher. He is 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts with Baltimore winning eight of those games. The problem comes on the road however as his ERA balloons to 4.88 and the Orioles going just 1-4 in his five starts away from home. He has faced Seattle twice this season and posted quality outings in both games but a third look at him should benefit the offense greatly. Baltimore is 1-14 in road games with double revenge this season while Seattle is 14-4 in home games following a loss this year. The Mariners are also a solid 13-3 in their last 16 games as a favorite and this line is very manageable as we get some great value. 3* Seattle Mariners
Tony Karpinski
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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
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Detroit will start Armando Galarraga, and although the righthander has struggled this year, he has posted consecutive victories in his last two starts. Galaragga has pitched well against Kansas City in his career, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts. The Royals will start Gil Meche, who has lost three straight outings. The right-hander has posted a 9.42 ERA in that span and is just 4-8 on the year. The Tigers have won four of six against the Royals this season and will make it five of seven after tonight as they grab the home win. Take the Tigers for the home win over the Royals tonight.
Freddy Wills
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
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Cueto goes for the Reds and he has started against the Phillies once this year going 7IP giving up 7H and 4ER. He'll face a Phillie lineup that is struggling a bit now .261 4.30 R/9. The offense is not the real reason why I am on the Phillies here it is on Cole Hamels. Hamels was terrible in his last start giving up 6ER the last time he had a start like this he bounced back with a road start at the Dodgers and pitched 9 complete innings and gave up 5H to the best team in the National League. Hamels has a 3.86 home ERA compared to 6.34 road. More importantly is how the Phillies play when Rollins is right. Rollins .217avg and a .266OBP is not exactly what you are looking for out of a lead off hitter, but I think he may have turned the corner here with a 5-10 series against the Mets with a HR and he got on base 3 times with a walk so he was on base 8 out of 13 times! 80% of the Reds 20 road losses have come by more than 1 run! 75% of the Phillies home wins have come by more than 1 run. Take the Phillies -1.5 +130