Larry Ness
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners
Boston beat the Angels 6-2 Friday night, earning its NINTH victory in 10 games. However, the Red Sox blew a four-run, ninth-inning lead Saturday night, before eventually losing 9-7 in 11 innings. The team then fell 3-0 last night on ESPN, getting held to just five hits.
"I still like this team. Tonight, we didn't create a whole lot for ourselves, but this is a team that continues to battle," manager John Farrell told the team's website after the series finale. "There's a lot of good at-bats. We're going to put a lot of people on base. Tonight just wasn't one of them." Boston now heads to Seattle for a four-game series, losers of EIGHT of its last 11 road games (plays Friday-Sunday at Oakland).
The Red Sox own the AL's best overall record (54-36), as well as a 4 1/2-game lead in the East but the team will be tested here on the West Coast in this final week prior to the All-Star break. Jon Lester gets the nod tonight, coming off a strong outing that snapped an eight-start stretch of shaky performances. He allowed one run in seven innings of a 2-1 win over San Diego, though he didn't get the decision
In his previous eight starts, Lester was 2-4 (team was 4-4), which isn't all bad considering he posted a 6.99 ERA in that eight-start stretch. Lester was a splendid 65-32 (.747) for Boston from 2008-11 but like the entire team, suffered a ‘meltdown’ in 2012, finishing 9-14 with a 4.82 ERA.
That looked like thing of the past, when he opened 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA over his first nine starts in 2013 (Red Sox were 7-2). However, Lester struggled badly for an eight-start stretch (see above) and one good start doesn't have me convinced "everything is OK!"
Seattle went 4-2 in visits to Texas and Cincinnati last week. "It's a real good trip for us," manager Eric Wedge told the team's official website. "I think we would have liked to have won one more, but you don't get greedy this time of year. You work hard to win series. Our guys fought hard and played pretty good baseball." The Mariners will be home all this week, first vs the Red Sox and then with three games vs the Angels.
"King Felix" is headed to his fourth All-Star game a week from Tuesday and takes the mound tonight. He's won his last three decisions but also has three no decisions since his last loss, with Seattle losing two of those three. He's 8-4 on the season but the Mariners are just 9-9 in his 18 starts. However, he remains a dominant pitcher, allowing 113 hits in 123.2 innings (130-24 KW ratio), while posting a 2.69 ERA.
Hernandez is 6-2 (3.18 ERA) in 12 career starts vs Boston (Mariners are 8-4) and I like him here vs a Boston team which is struggling on the road recently (3-8 its last 11).
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Boston vs. SeattleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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One night removed from being shutout by Jered Weaver of the Angels, the Red Sox have the unenviable task of having to go up to Seattle and deal with Mariners ace Felix Hernandez. This is no small order, even for the team with the best record in the American League. The Mariners are returning home from a 4-2 road trip that saw them take two of three from both the Rangers & Reds.
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1. Hernandez - King Felix seems to be in fine form once again. Though he didn't get the win either time, he is coming off back to back outings where he went seven innings and allowed only two runs. For the year, he is 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.108 WHIP, but we all know the record would be better if he were to consistently get better run support. Only once in the last two seasons has Hernandez faced Boston and he was spectacular in that one outing, tossing a complete game shutout with 13 strikeouts last June.
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2. Jon Lester - I think it's interesting that Lester enters Monday's game with the same 8-4 record as Hernandez, yet has an ERA nearly two full points higher. The difference is he (Lester) gets plenty of run support typically, but w/ a 5.48 ERA on the road, he may need more than the Boston bats are able to produce against Hernandez.
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3. X-Factor - This is the Red Sox' first West Coast road trip of the season. With no rest and off the Sunday night game, I'd say they are at a significant disadvantage here.
Bryan Power
Texas vs. Baltimore
Pick: Texas
All eyes will be on Scott Feldman Monday night as he makes his second start for the Orioles since being acquired from the Cubs, this one against his former team the Texas Rangers. But it's the Rangers own Derek Holland who I believe will the steal the spotlight. I'm backing the small underdog in this game...
Holland is having an exceptional season for Texas. He has a 3.13 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in 17 starts this year and has actually done his best work on the road where he's got a 7-2 TSR and 2.95 ERA (1.098 WHIP). Last time out, he had 10 strikeouts, but the team lost 4-2 to Seattle at home. But the start before that was a complete game shutout of the Yankees on the road. In night time starts, his team start record is 9-3. He has won the last three times he's started against Baltimore.
The Orioles were very lucky to escape Yankees Stadium with a win yesterday as Mariano Rivera blew the save opportunity, which does not happen often. Prior to that, they'd lost three straight games. Now they're running into a Rangers team that has won 12 of its last 17 games, including a 5-4 win over Houston Sunday. I think Texas is the better team here, plus they have revenge from last year's Wild Card game.
Tony George
NY Yankees -131
Kansas City is off a bad bad Sunday and now travel to NY. They have won just 12 out of 51 at Yankees Stadium on the road. Guthrie's last 3 starts have resulted in over a 7 ERA for KC. Yankees had a 6 game win streak snapped by the O's on Sunday and will be ready for a win tonight.
Ben Burns
Cubs vs. White Sox
Pick: White Sox
Burns is a perfect 5-0 with his last five free plays, games which had lines of -120, -104, -130, -120 and +100.
Today's Cubs/Chisox "make up" contest also falls in that range ...
The Cubs swept the Sox at Wrigley back in May. Not that they should need it, but that may give the Sox some added motivation here.
While he didn't get much in terms of run support, Santiago was very sharp last time out. Through seven innings, he limited the Orioles to two runs. He gave up just five hits while striking out nine. In 10 starts, he's quietly posted a solid 3.36 ERA and 1.261 WHIP. He gives up less than a home run per outing (7 in 10 games) and has 64 Ks in 56 innings as a starter.
Granted, Garza has been very good lately. Note that he's just 2-4 (teams were 2-6) with a poor 5.07 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in eight starts vs. the Sox though.
The Cubs, 21-40 (-17.2) the past couple of seasons, as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range, haven't swept the season series vs. their crosstown rivals in 15 years. I have a hunch its not going to happen this year either. Consider the White Sox.
Steve Janus
Baltimore Orioles -109
The Orioles were able to avoid a disastrous road trip with a 9th inning rally yesterday against the Yankees. I look for them to carry over that momentum at home tonight against the Rangers. Baltimore has won four straight and five of six at home and are a respectable 25-17 at home in 2013. They are also an impressive 19-9 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.
I like their chances of cashing a winning ticket with a very underrated Scott Feldman taking the mound. Feldman came over from the Cubs and won his first start at the White Sox, allowing just two runs on six hits in six innings. He's already faced the Rangers once this season (with Cubs) and was brilliant, allowing just two hits in seven shutout innings of a 9-2 win.
Sports Experts 17
Oakland Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
Bartolo Colon performance this season has been lucky, we just have to go back 2009, 2011 and 2012 and see his bad record, this season he won 8 in a row with a great backup team after he lose against Chicago Cubs that we gave as a WINNER, Tonight he will have all the pressure to go back in that winning track, but that would not happen, we will see Bartolo's reality (just a regular pitcher in the mount) against the most profitable team in the Majors with a great Jeff Locke and his amazing record 8-1. Be sure to follow this game and see the bad performance of Colon and a great performance of a playoff contender team.
Brad Wilton
Your Monday comp play release is the Cubs in their makeup game against the White Sox.
The Cubs have won all 3 meetings this year with their in-city rival, and they hit the south side having won their last pair of games, and 5 of their last 8 overall.
The White Sox meanwhile continue to stink up the joint on a nightly basis, as the Pale Hose are on a 2-9 slide their last 11 games.
Matt Garza is rumored to be on the trading block, but he continues to go out there and fire away, as Garza is 3-0 his last 4 trips to the mound and his ERA is a scant 0.90 in that span.
Hector Santiago will go for the Sox, and he is just 1-2 with a 4.30 ERA at home for the season.
Will side with the Cubs to pull off another win, as they continue their uptick heading into the All Star break.
3* CUBS
Brett Atkins
My freebie for tonight is on the Tampa Bay Rays, who should have no trouble cruising to an easy win - their fifth straight overall - over the Minnesota Twins.
Look, I know right-hander Roberto Hernandez has not won a game since June 11, but there's more to this guy's 4-10 mark and 4.95 ERA. Like, the lack of offensive support he's received. Tampa Bay hitters have scored an average of 1.5 runs in his last four starts, but that could change today with the Twins coming to town.
While I know how well right-hander Samuel Deduno has performed for the Twins, he's not that good on the road. His 4.84 ERA far exceeds his 2.33 home ERA.
Look for the Rays to back their pitcher - though I'm not listing either - and the American League East contenders to keep their winning streak alive.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Monday night is from the National League West clash between the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies, and my money is on the home team laying a cheap price. Though I'd normally be wary of a West Coast team returning home from an East Coast road trip, I think the Friars are the play here with Colorado muddled in a three-game slide.
I know the Rockies are handing the ball to right-handed Tyler Chatwood, who has been very good for them for the most part this season, but he did struggle his last time out, against the Dodgers, and could be headed to a second-straight shellacking.
I know the Padres have lost 15 of 19 since the 17th - including nine in a row - but they've fallen 7-1/2 games back of the D-backs after a series sweep to the Nationals in Washington. And this is somewhat of a crucial series for San Diego, with must-win status all of it.
Colorado has won eight of the 10 meetings between the two teams this year, but this is a good time for San Diego to turn the corner and bring its skid to a halt.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Rob Veno
Atlanta at Miami
Play: Over 8
After opening the season with 10 quality starts in his first 13 outings, Atlanta’s Mike Minor is now in the midst of one of those rough patches that have plagued his young career. Minor’s recent four game stretch has totaled 24 innings, 37 hits, 58 total bases, 5.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He’s had difficulty getting through innings as evidenced by the fact that he’s averaged facing 4.5 batters per inning in four of his last five starts after averaging only 3.84 in his 12 prior starts. Minor’s track record indicates he’s not a pitcher who quickly snaps out of funks which could bode well for Miami which has scored four or more runs in 10 of its last 15 games. Atlanta’s offense has supported Minor well all season scoring 5.35 runs per game while batting .282 and recording an .816 OPS. Those numbers indicate the Braves could have success against Miami’s Kevin Slowey who’s now taking the rotation spot vacated by the trade of Ricky Nolasco. Slowey threw two innings of relief vs. Atlanta just six days ago and was lit up for four runs. The righty has not had much success against the Braves and his contact style of pitching isn’t a good fit for their strikeout prone, LH dominant power hitting traits. Expect each of these teams to score plenty of runs tonight and get this game over the total.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -154
The Braves will be out for some serious revenge in this series after losing two of three at home to Miami July 2-4. They have won 36 of the last 51 meetings, including 19 of the last 26 in Miami. The Marlins are hitting a dismal .220 and scoring only 2.6 runs per game off lefty starters this season so the odds are stacked against them tonight with southpaw Mike Minor set to take the mound for Atlanta. The Braves are 8-3 in Minor's last 11 starts, 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a road favorite and 4-1 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200. Atlanta won't fret over facing Kevin Slowey, who has a 9.21 ERA over his last three starts. The Marlins are 1-5 in Slowey's last 6 starts overall and 2-6 in his last 8 home starts. Take Atlanta.
Wunderdog
Oakland at Pittsburgh
Pick: Oakland -110
These are teams that are surprisingly leading their divisions as we approach the all-star break, and each will go with a pitcher that has made the all-star team. The Pirates are meeting some adversity now as they have lost their last two series, the last coming at the hands of the lowly Cubs. The A's have rolled to four straight series wins and continue to play solid baseball all the way around. There isn't much difference to measure on the mound here, and the one big difference is the A's, and the AL in general; their ability to win in inter-conference tilts. Oakland is 8-2 in their last 10 in inter-league play vs. a winning team, and 26-9 to a total of 7-8.5 in their last 35. Oakland has also gone 20-6 in Colon's last 26 starts. The Pirates are just 23-51 vs. an interleague club over .500, and are not playing well right now. Play on Oakland.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago Cubs +110
The Cubs have won 5 of 6 versus the White Sox, including all 3 meetings this season. I expect them to notch another victory versus their cross-town rivals with Garza getting the ball. The right-hander has been lethal of late, going 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA over his last 3 starts. Also, the Cubs are 4-0 in Garza's last 4 interleague starts. The White Sox have lost 27 of 37 and are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. They are are 2-7 in Santiago's last 9 starts and 1-5 in his last 6 home starts. Cubs get the call.
Nelly
Baltimore Orioles - over Texas Rangers
The Orioles should have some positive momentum after a comeback win yesterday against Mariano Rivera, avoiding a sweep and snapping a losing streak. Baltimore has not had the same success this season against left-handed pitching but the offense still has scored more than four runs per game against southpaws with a 14-12 record. Derek Holland is not getting a lot of national attention but he has turned into one of the top starters in the AL, although he has allowed four or more runs in five of his last 10 starts. Scott Feldman will make his second start for the Orioles after being traded from the Cubs, where he posted great season numbers in the NL. Feldman will be pitching against his former team so he should be fired up for this opportunity and he delivered a strong quality start in his debut with the Orioles. Texas has been struggling on offense with just a .237 team average over the last 10 games and just a .305 wOBA over the last month, ranking 20th in baseball despite maintaining a reputation as a formidable offensive team. Texas has featured great bullpen results on the season but the Rangers have allowed four or more runs in each of the last six games despite going against two of the weakest offensive teams in baseball, Seattle and Houston. The Orioles are 25-17 at home this season and perhaps undervalued in this matchup, though this will be the first meeting since Baltimore eliminated the Rangers from the playoffs last season.