Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday June, 11

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at Blue Jays
Prediction: Blue Jays

When the Nats and Jays open a three-game Interleague series in Toronto Monday evening Washington will send Edwin Jackson to the mound knowing he is 5-8 in his career team starts in this series, including 0-2 his last two away. Jackson is also 0-6 in his road team starts this season. With Brandon Morrow 4-0 with a super-sharp 1.22 ERA in his last four team starts during June, we'll stay at home with the Blue Jays here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto.

Hollywood Sports

Red Sox at Marlins
Prediction: Under

This is an interesting contest that features two of the best pitchers in the game that both struggled to begin the season but now look to have regained their form as of late. Beckett is 4-6 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season -- but over his last five starts he owns a 2.21 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Boston (29-31) has played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Beckett pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Red Sox have also played 5 straight Inter-League games Under the Total with Beckett on the mound. Additionally, Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami (31-29) has played 5 straight Inter-League games at home Under the Total. The Marlins have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Johnson has a 3-4 record with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP this season -- but over his last six starts Johnson sports a 2.95 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP. The Under is 4-1-1 when Johnson was pitching an opening game of a new series. Take the Under in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

This game fits a nice system that plays home teams the last 9+ years that are off a road favored win by 2 or more runs, if they left 5 or more men on base and are taking on an opponent off a road win in which they scored 10 or more runs. These home teams have won 10 of 12 times. The Dodgers have Capuano on the mound and he is 5-0 at home this season with a solid era. He Opposes G. Richards who is making his first road start after a nice home outing vs an anemic hitting Seattle team. The Angels are better vs right handed pitchers than they are vs Leftys. The Dodgers are 9-2 vs winning teams, 17-7 at home when the total is 7 or less and have a solid 2.33 home bullpen era. The Dodgers have scored 8 or more in 3 of the last 4 and should get the job done here tonight.

Sean Murphy

Nationals @ Blue Jays
PICK: Under 8

The Jays return home following an offensive explosion that saw them plate 12 runs in a dominating victory on Sunday in Atlanta. Keep in mind, this is a team that had scored a grand total of eight runs over his previous three contests.

Washington is fresh off a series sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway Park, but it's worth noting that they hit .233 as a team with only two home runs over the course of that three-game set.

The 'under' is 6-2-2 over the Nats' last 10 games overall, and 7-3 over the Jays last 10 contests as well. I expect that trend to continue as these two clubs begin a three-game series on Monday night.

Edwin Jackson gets the nod for the visiting Nats'. He's been quietly effective this season, posting a 3.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The wins haven't come, but that's of little concern to us with this particular play.

Note that Jackson brings excellent current form to the table, having allowed only 20 hits and seven earned runs over his last four outings, spanning 28 2/3 innings of work. He's had a tough time against the Jays bats in the past, but he's enjoying his best season by far here in 2012.

Brandon Morrow will counter for Toronto. Like Jackson, he's also having a career year, having recorded a 2.90 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through 12 starts. Also like Jackson, he's in terrific form right now, allowing only six hits and one earned run over his last two outings, spanning 15 1/3 innings of work.

This will be Morrow's first career start against the Nationals, so he has the advantage of facing a lot of their hitters for the first time.

Both bullpens have been lights out lately, with the Nats' posting a collective 2.61 ERA over their last 10 games, and the Jays checking in with a 2.63 ERA over the same stretch.

Surprisingly enough, at least as far as the Jays are concerned, both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' this season, with Washington recording a 27-28 o/u mark and Toronto playing 28-29 to the 'under' (excluding pushes). Expect more of the same in this matchup.

Jesse Schule

Angels @ Dodgers
PICK: Over 7

The Angels offense is firing on all cylinders lately, with the resurgance of Albert Pujols, and Torii Hunter and Mark Trumbo also lighting it up lately. Trumbo went yard for a pair of dingers in yesterday's game against Colorado, he's now batting .357 with eight homers and 20 RBIs in his last 14 games. The trio of Hunter, Pujols and Mike Trout, hit an amazing .568, going a combined 23 for 42 against the Rockies. "Probably the best I've seen in my career (from the top three)," said Torii Hunter.

The big guns for LA will be facing their crosstown rivals in this "Battle of LA". The Dodgers are coming off a series in Seattle, where they took two of three from the Mariners. They also have been hitting the ball well lately, putting up 16 runs in their last two games in Seattle. They will go with Chris Capuano on Monday, who will be looking to tie the NL lead in wins. Capuano (8-2, 2.82 ERA), earned a victory in his last start, however he was a little shaky, giving up three home runs. Going back to his previous start, he got rocked for seven runs off as many hits, in five innings in a loss to Colorado. He might be in for a long day against the Angels here today.

The Angels will throw a rookie into the fire for the second time in his career, although Garrett Richards was great earning his first major league win in his last appearance. Richards allowed only one run on four hits in a victory over the Mariners. We will see what the kid is made of today, he might find the Dodgers lineup to be a little more potent than his last opponents. I certainly don't expect a dominant shutdown performance from the kid here, I think the Dodgers will give him a big league welcome, and teach him what it feels like to be taken for a ride.

I see the potential for both these pitchers to allow a few runs today, and the way these teams are hitting the ball, this one looks like it has OVER written all over it.

Jack Jones

New York Yankees -110

The New York Yankees are showing solid value as just a -110 favorite Monday against the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of this new interleague series. Winners of eight of their last ten, the Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season over the last few weeks.

Ivan Nova continues winning games for the Yankees this season. Nova is 3-0 with a 3.74 ERA in his last three starts, and New York is 9-2 in his 11 starts this season. The Yankees are 22-6 in Nova's last 28 starts overall, 11-1 in his last 12 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 9-0 in his last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

New York is 37-16 in their last 53 interleague games. The Braves are 0-8 in Monday games this season. Atlanta is 0-4 in Randall Delgado's last 4 starts during Game 1 of a series. The Braves are 1-5 in Delgado's last 6 starts as an underdog. Bet the Yankees Monday.

Jimmy Boyd

New York Yankees -109

The Yankees are playing some baseball. They've won 13 of their last 17 and are in great hands with Nova on the mound. He's coming off his best performance of the season, and the Yankees are an awesome 22-6 in his last 28 starts. They are also 9-0 in his last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves had won 6 in a row before getting smacked 12-4 yesterday. There's a good chance that loss halts their momentum as they are 2-7 in their last 9 games following defeat. The Braves haven't been a strong investment in series openers as they are 10-21 in their last 31. Plus, they are 0-4 in Delgado's last 4 series-opening starts and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. The Yankees have also had the upper hand in this series, winning 12 of the last 17 meetings overall and 6 of the last 8 in Atlanta. Take New York.

Jim Feist

Yankees vs Braves
Pick: Over

The Yankees are on a roll and have now overtaken Baltimore in the AL East and are hot on the heals of the Rays for first place. Ivan Nova has seven wins for the Bronx Bombers this year despite a lofty ERA of 5.09 and a less than impressive WHIP of 1.47. Nova has received lots of run support, with the Yankees scoring five or more runs in eight of his last 10 starts. Meanwhile, the Braves look to catch Washington for first place in the NL East, just one game separating them as of Sunday morning. Randall Delgado will get the start for the Braves. Delgado is 4-5 this season with a 4.26 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Delgado has won two straight games and has pitched well, allowing just four runs over 11 2/3 innings. We have two teams playing well here with two pitchers that while decent, don't have the best ERA's. I like this game OVER tonight, with big hitting teams and pitchers that won't go much past six innings. Take the OVER.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

LA Dodgers/ LA Angels Over 7: I know that some good pitching is on the mound for this one, but this pick is more about a couple of hot hitting teams. The Angels just had a big series in Colorado in which they scored 28 runs in the 3 games. Most teams can have a big series in Colorado, but the Angels also scored 6 runs in each of their 3 games at home vs Seattle before the Colorado Series. This is a team that is swinging hot bats right now. Chris Capuano has allowed 4 ER's in each of last 2 starts and I know they were both on the road, but one of those starts was at Philly, where the Phils just haven't been scoring runs. Chris does have a 1.36 ERA at home, but the Halos do score 4.65 rp/9 off of lefties on the road.Garrett Richards has just 4 career starts and in his lone start this year he allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings, but that start was vs a weak hitting Seattle squad. He has just 1 road start in his career and that was last year and he allowed 6 ER's in just 5 innings vs the Yanks. The Dodgers come in hitting well as they have scored 6 or more runs in 3 4 of their last 5 games, plus they also hit .281 and score 4.3 rpg at home on the year. The Dodgers will get their runs off of Richards, while Capuano may be due for a bad home start. Both offenses are swinging good bats right now and that should lead to at least 9 runs in this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

LOS ANGELES -½ +110 over New Jersey

Kudos to the Devils for not throwing in the towel after being down 3-0 and making it a 3-2 series as they head back to LA. However, the Game 5 win was pure luck and nothing more. The Devils were outplayed, scoring two fluke goals while the Kings hit three goalposts and every deflected shot seemd to hit Marty Brodeur. The reality is that the Kings have been the better team for the entire series and it should all end right here. The Devils were badly outplayed in games five and six in their respective series against the Rangers but a different fate will await them on this night. The Kings continue to churn out some great hockey, with every player playing at a high level, while the same cannot be said for the visitor. Their will be a party in LA tonight. Play: Los Angeles -½ +110 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. Angels +106 over L.A. DODGERS

Garrett Richards has made just one start this season after being recalled last week and pitched a gem against the Mariners. He went eight full and allowed just four hits while striking out eight batters. Richards is a quick-armed pitcher with a smooth delivery and plenty of arm strength. He possesses an explosive 90-96 mph fastball and throws an effective sinker. He can register strikeouts with his slider, curveball or sinking changeup. The Dodgers are now 39-22 after another series win over the weekend. The Dodgers are good but they’re not this good and we won’t be surprised if their winning percentage takes a drop soon. Chris Capuano has been hit hard in back-to-back starts after a string of seven quality starts in his past eight attempts. Capuano is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient that saw his OPS rise more than 100 points last year in 186 IP. His groundball/fly-ball split this season is 38%/45% and that’s the first sign of a tiring arm. Capuano could be a pitcher in trouble and we’ll look to take advantage. Play: L.A. Angels +106 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +146 over TORONTO

Brandon Morrow has some of the nastiest stuff in the majors. It seems like he can strikeout batters and dominate an entire lineup at will when he’s dialed in, as he was in his last game when he threw a complete-game two hitter against the White Sox. This is Morrow’s seventh year in the majors and for the past five years, a breakout season has been expected. He hasn’t delivered it yet and his inconsistency suggests he never will as he continually follows a gem with a stinker. On April 18, May 14 and May 25, Morrow allowed six runs in each start. Those types make it difficult to trust the guy. Edwin Jackson has spent at least part of the last six seasons in the AL so he is no stranger to the Blue Jays. He’s 1-0 in seven career starts at the Rogers Center with a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 47.1 IP. Jackson has pitched like a rotation anchor this season and has the skills to back it. A 3.11 ERA, 59 k’s and 19 walks in 72 innings and a groundball bias profile is what value is made of and we’re not about to pass it up here. Play: Washington +146 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Sweden +200 over UKRAINE

The odds on Sweden to win dropped like a rock overnight and they may continue to fall until kick off. The odds makers have this line wrong and the betting public has taken advantage and we’ll attempt to also. Sweden was the best runners up out of all qualification groups for Euro 2012 and booked an automatic place at the finals. They won a big, crucial game against the Netherlands for that to happen and the Swedes have won all four of their international friendlies played this year. They beat Croatia away and have recent wins over Iceland and Serbia. The Swedes come in confident with an attack that is spearheaded by Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who is lethal in front of goal . Sweden is very strong in the middle of the park and they averaged over three goals per game during Euro 2012 qualification. Ukraine is the home team and that advantage is somewhat significant but Ukraine was flat in their pre-tournament games and it is difficult to believe that they will suddenly raise their game to the level needed to compete with the talent in this competition. Sweden will have 12,000 fans at this game and that will definitely cut into Ukraine’s home field advantage. Ukraine may score today but that will more than likely not be enough. Play: Sweden +201 (Risking 2 units).

MLB Predictions

Miami Marlins -107

Both of these two teams are in the dumps right now, as Boston was swept at home vs Washington and has lost 6 of their last 7 games while the Marlins have been swept in two straight home series vs Tampa Bay and Atlanta. On the season the Red Sox are 29-31 and 15-12 on the road, while the Marlins are at 31-29 and 16-16 at home. Josh Beckett will take the mound for the Red Sox with his 4-6 record, 4.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .247 opponents batting average. His numbers are worse on the road (over 4 road starts) with a 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .258 opponents batting average. Josh Johnson is starting to look more like himself. He is 3-4 on the season with a 4.56 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .302 opponents batting average. His last two starts have looked a little more promising as he went 6 and 7.2 innings allowing 3 and 2 earned runs against while striking out 5 and 9 in his most recent outing. Take note that the Marlins are 6-1 in Johnson's last 7 starts overall, and 6-2 in his last 8 interleague starts. The Marlins are 38-13 in Johnsons last 51 starts on 4 days rest compared to the Red Sox who are 2-6 in Becketts last 8 starts with 4 days rest. Although Johnson hadn't been pitching well to start the season back from an injury he is pitching very well as of late - note that the Marlins are 35-16 in his last 51 home starts. The Red Sox had to hit the road yesterday after being swept in front of their home crowd and will walk into a very tough opening game of this second interleague series against Miami and Josh Johnson. Give me the Marlins tonight at almost a pick'em price.

Lenny Del Genio

Boston Red Sox @ Miami
PICK: Boston Red Sox

Miami is in a complete tailspin right now, having dropped six in a row after getting swept at home by Atlanta and Tampa Bay. And they were just dominated in those games, getting outscored 43-10. They've been held to two runs or less in five of those six losses and with Josh Beckett having seemingly turned a corner for Boston, we see the Red Sox taking Monday's series opener. Though he doesn't have a win to show for it, Beckett has a 0.989 WHIP has last three starts. Josh Johnson has yet to regain his old form for Miami this season, posting a subpar 4.56 ERA in 12 starts overall. The Marlins had a horrible June last year as well and are now 18-45 in this month the L3 seasons. Perhaps more frightening is their 9-26 mark as a home dog.