SPORTS WAGERS
Italy +1.25 over Paraguay
The defending champs offer very good value here, as pundits may be giving Paraguay too much credit as a result. Yes, Paraguay is good and they have been in fine form while Italy has not, yet the Italians have a great shot at winning this match. Italy offers too much experience as one of the oldest teams in the tournament and when I mention experience I mean it in a good way. Italy is old on average but when push comes to shove they will prevail, as they simply know how to win. Paraguay has a very good chance for second place in the group and I think that is their goal entering the tournament, therefore look more towards the next two matches. Italy understands the importance of the first match and with an opening win should see them through to the round of 16, as their following matches do not offer too much of a threat. Paraguay has a talented attack and may cause few problems, however at the end it will be Italy's experience that sees them through this one. Play: Italy +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.08 over SAN DIEGO
No doubt the Jays are scuffling and for some unexplainable reason they’re one of the few AL teams that have always had trouble vs the NL. However, Shaun Marcum is about as solid as they come and is without question one of the most undervalued and unrecognized pitchers in the game. Marcum was hit hard in his last two starts but they both came against the Rays. Prior to those two starts his ERA was 2.59 and only once in 11 starts did he allow more than three runs. Marcum seldom walks anyone, he’s always ahead in the count, his BAA is .241 and again, if you throw out two games against the Rays his BAA is .216. Meanwhile, Jon Garland skills are underwhelming at best. He’s going on just three days rest here after throwing less than 100 pitches in three straight starts. Garland throws so few pitches because every one of his pitches is hittable and they’re either hit right at someone or not. In a recent game against the Phillies, his pitching line looked like this: 7IP – 10 hits- 6ER. Seeing that line you would think he threw 115 pitches or so but not Garland. He threw 90 pitches, which tells us that the Phillies were swinging early and they weren’t missing and that’s the way he pitches to everyone. The Jays bring an all-or-nothing offense that leads the AL in HR, but is only 6th in AL scoring with a .224 BA on the road that is the league’s worst. However, this isn’t David Price, Matt Garza, John Lester or Ubaldo Jiminez and the Padres offense is worse. Marcum plus a tag here is about as sweet as it gets. Play: Toronto +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
DUNKEL INDEX
Toronto at San Diego
The Blue Jays look to take advantage of a San Diego team that is 2-7 in its last 9 games as a home favorite from -110 to -150. Toronto is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+100)
Game 901-902: Seattle at St. Louis (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (French) 15.247; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.924
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-300); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+250); Under
Game 903-904: Toronto at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 15.360; San Diego (Garland) 14.792
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+100); Over
Game 905-906: Milwaukee at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 14.879; LA Angels (Saunders) 17.406
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Under
Game 907-908: Baltimore at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 13.087; San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.214
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-185); Under
Hollywood Sports
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Blue Jays at Padres
Prediction: Under
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There is a reason that games played in PETCO Park have Totals installed as low as at 6 or 7 runs. The spacious configuration of this stadium makes it the friendliest pitcher's park in the major leagues. Shaun Marcum is enjoying a great season for the Blue Jays with his 5-3 record and 3.38 ERA. He has struggled in his last two starts -- but both of these were against the strong offense of the Tampa Bay Rays. Pitching in PETCO, look for Marcum to bounce-back. The Padres' Jon Garland has been very good this season as well with his 6-4 record and 2.81 ERA. At home, Garland has an outstanding 1.15 ERA. And when looking at the deeper sabermetrics, there is one statistical measurement that is very encouraging for both these starting pitchers. Isolated Power (ISO) is simply slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Marcum and Garland have low ISO's of .124 and .112 respectively which indicates they both have been very stingy regarding giving up extra-base hits. This is a great characteristic when pitching in PETCO. Why are more fringe statistics like ISO helpful for us? The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it helps expose a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we can get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which helps produce a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
Scott Rickenbach
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Orioles @ San Giants
PICK: Under 8
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Things have gotten so bad for Baltimore that they now aren't even producing runs at home either. After a 2-7 homestand where the Orioles totaled just 25 runs, a road trip to San Francisco is unlikely to help matters for Baltimore. The Giants starting pitchers have combined for the #1 ERA in the majors. Also, it will be chilly in pitcher-friendly San Francisco this evening and Jonathan Sanchez enters this start with a sparkling 2.82 ERA on the season for the Giants. It's likely to be another tough night at the plate for the slumping Orioles as they are not familiar with the offerings of Sanchez. The same is true for Chris Tillman of Baltimore. The Giants certainly aren't familiar with his offerings and he's coming off of a respectable outing against the Yankees in his most recent start. Now, in interleague action, the edges are even greater for the young hurler as the Giants will be trying to adjust at the plate against a talented hurler whom they are not familiar with. Yes, the numbers of Tillman on the season are not impressive but he felt better than he has all season in his start against the Yankees last week. These teams haven't faced each other since the 2004 season and it's a big edge for the pitchers in this match-up as there is just not much familiarity for the hitters on either side in terms of the starting pitcher and relievers they will face. In a pitcher-friendly park on a pitcher-friendly night, that makes a key difference. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in San Francisco on Monday night.
BIG AL
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Mariners @ Cardinals
PICK: Over 7.5
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The Mariners have been very disappointed with the performance of starter Ian Snell who they acquired from the Pirates last season, so much so that they are bumping him from the rotation and giving his start to lefthander Luke French. The 24-year-old who was acquired from the Tigers last year in the Jarod Washburn deal, has only appeared twice this season in a relief role so this will be his first start of the season although he had 12 starts in his rookie 2009 campaign. French had a 3.38 ERA with the Tigers but really struggled after being traded to the Mariners and the team is obviously hoping that moving French into the rotation could turn things around for him, but throwing him into inter-league play against a tough Cardinal lineup may not be the best idea. Not to mention the fact that his opposing pitcher will be righthander Adam Wainwright, one of the NL's best. Wainwright didn't have his best stuff against the Dodgers in his last start when he allowed four runs on eight hits over six innings, but it seems his offense almost always shows up for him at Busch Stadium. In his last three home starts, the Cards have scored a total of 22 runs for Wainwright. Take the 'over.'
Jordan Haimowitz
Baltimore Orioles vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Baltimore Orioles +1½
The value is here with this play. Young O's pitcher Chris Tillman has shown signs of success and Sanchez is the perfect pitcher for the Orioles to do well against as he is very wild at times. All stats point to San Francisco and ultimately it will lead you to a trap. Take the O's
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play Toronto over San Diego
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RHP Marcum is 0-2 with a 8+ ERA this month and seemingly has fallen on hard times with his pitches up in the strike zone. Not a good sign when going on the road against "small ball" Padres who have hurler Jon Garland throwing solid innings on a consistent basis. Take the Padres on Monday night.
EZWINNERS
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San Francisco Giants -179
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The Giants starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez is 4-5 this season with an ERA of only 2.82. How is a pitcher with an ERA of 2.82 just 4-5? The Giants have scored a total of four runs for Sanchez in his five losses and San Francisco was shut out in three of those games. I don't expect Sanchez to suffer that kind of fate in this game against the Orioles. Baltimore will send Chris Tillman to the mound for only his fourth start this season and Tillman is 0-2 in his first three starts with an ERA of 5.54. Tillman is a highly touted prospect for Baltimore, but is not big league ready in my opinion. I expect the Giants to get to him and finally provide Sanchez with some run support. Baltimore is only 14-38 in their last fifty two games against a left handed starter. Play on San Francisco.
JIM FEIST
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MARINERS / CARDINALS
PLAY: UNDER
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The Cardinals are coming off a tough 1-5 road trip, which didn't help as they chase the Cincinnati Reds for first place in the NL Central. But, they Cards return home and will have Adam Wainwright on the hill. Wainwright has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season with a 8-4 record and very nice 2.30 ERA. The Cardinals also look to get out of their hitting funk that plagued them on the road where they hit just .227 with the heart of their lineup (Pujols and Holliday) going 6-for-44. Wainwright has been dominant at home this season, going 5-0 with a 1.62 ERA. This doesn't bode well for the Mariners who just lost two of three games at San Diego and faced the best bullpen in baseball. The M's, who have struggled to score runs, will have to now face one of the best home pitchers in baseball in Wainwright. Luke French makes his first start of the season here for the Mariners. French was overpowering in the minors, going 6-2 with a 1.93 ERA at Triple-A Tacoma. French does catch the Cardinals in a hitting slump, that combined with Wainwright makes this game an UNDER here on Monday!
Chris Jordan
The Cardinals aren't hitting and Adam Wainwright is pitching at home. Throw in the fact that the offensively-challenged Seattle Mariners are coming to Busch Stadium and those are three pretty good reasons to back the Under in St. Louis this evening.
The Redbirds return home after a dismal 1-5 road trip in which they batted a pathetic .227. And the meat of their lineup, Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, aren't earning the multi-millions they're getting paid of late as they contributed mightily to the team's offensive malaise with a .136 average during the west coast excursion.
Wainwright has made five starts at home this season. Not only has he won them all, but his earned run average in them is a sparkling 1.62.
Seattle is 2-5 so far on its current 10-game road trip and the M's have scored a total of 18 runs so far with four of them coming in yesterday's win at San Diego. An offensive juggernaut they aren't.
The Cards might not get untracked offensively, but I expect Wainwright to get them back in the win column with another dominating pitching performance at home so expect a low-scoring game in the 4-2 range and play the Under.
5♦ ST. LOUIS/SEATTLE UNDER
Karl Garrett
G-Man gave you a Sunday comp play winner on the Lakers-Celtics game staying under the posted total. For Monday, I will back the Blue Jays as they make a rare stop in San Diego.
Toronto dropped all 3 of their weekend games played in Colorado, and have now lost 6 of 7 overall, but they are facing a San Diego team that has been strictly middle of the road of late, splitting both their last 6 games, and their last 10 games.
Shaun Marcum and Jon Garland have both lost their last pair of starts, but I will give the slight edge tonight to the Toronto starter, as the Padres have not seen Marcum before, while the Blue Jays are familiar with Garland from his days in the junior circut.
G-Man gets the feeling that the Jays are due for a slump-busting win, and I will back them at this price tonight at Petco Park.
Take Toronto to stop their 3-game slide.
3♦ TORONTO
Bryan Leonard
Milwaukee at Los Angeles
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Randy Wolf has only faced the Angels twice in his career with poor results as he owns a 6.35 ERA vs the Halos. His last seven starts overall haven't been any better as his 6.64 ERA clearly shows. The Brewers are 22-47 as a dog in the first game of a series.
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Los Angeles starts Joe Saunders who has been excellent as of late. His last seven starts have resulted in a 2.63 ERA. The Angels are 29-11 when Saunders starts the opening game of a series and the league overall is 45-19 as a home favorite after a one run victory. After winning 16 and 17 games the past two seasons Saunders is back in the groove in 2010. He should have little problem shutting down the free swinging Brewer bats.
PLAY LOS ANGELES
Insider Angles
Joe Saunders of the Los Angeles Angels has regained his All-Star form of two years ago in recent outings, and while Randy Wolf of the Milwaukee Brewers has been off his game lately, he can take advantage of a lethargic Angels team that is coming off of both a long road trip and an emotional weekend series vs. the crosstown Dodgers.
Saunders is coming off of a Complete Game win over Oakland where he allowed only one run on seven hits, and that came on the heels of his previous outing where he allowed one run in six innings vs. Seattle. Taken back further, he has now allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts, allowing one earned run or less in four of those outings. This is also the first time the Brewers have ever faced Saunders, which should be to his advantage.
Now Wolf has been a disappointment for the Brewers at 4-6 with a 5.31 ERA, but he has not been a total bust, with six Quality Starts in his last 12 starts. The crafty veteran is facing an Angel lineup that is batting a rather mediocre .258 vs. left-handed pitching this season, and the Halos may have a tough time getting motivated here after culminating their long 14-game road trip by wrapping up a three-game sweep of the Dodgers yesterday.
Finally, while both bullpens have ugly numbers year-to-date, especially Milwaukee, both have improved tremendously over the last 10 games, with the Los Angeles pen posting a 3.54 ERA during this time and the Brewers pen posting a surprisingly better 3.09 ERA.
This should limit the late tack-on runs enough here to ensure this game stays in the single-digits.
Pick: Brewers/Angels Under 9.5
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Blue Jays/Padres UNDER 7
I'll take the Under in a pitcher-friendly ballpark tonight with a pair of solid starters on the hill. In 6 starts in the month of May, Marcum didn't give up more than 3 earned runs in any game. He's had a couple rocky outings to start June, but both of those came against the Tampa Bay Rays who have his number. He still has an ERA of 3.38 on the season. While Marcum has pitched well, Toronto's bats have gone into hibernation, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 8 straight games. Those struggles figure to continue against Garland tonight. He is 3-0 (5-1 on the money line) in 6 home starts this season, carrying a low 1.85 ERA in those games. Plus, he has allowed 3 or fewer runs the last 5 times he's faced the Jays. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Blue Jays' last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter and 34-15-5 in the Padres' last 54 games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Under.
Frank Jordan
Seattle Mariners vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Seattle was thought to be the team this year to bump off the Angels as best in the West, but they haven't hit the ball and that put them 15 games under .500. St. Louis is in first place and sending their ace Adam Wainwright to the mound who is 8-4 with a 2.30 era. Look for St. Louis to cruise to an easy victory. Play St. Louis