Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday June, 18

Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

When the Tribe sends former National Leaguer Derek Lowe to the mound in the opener of a three-game Interleague series against Matt Latos and the Reds at Progressive Field Monday evening, Lowe will take the mound knowing he is 2-1 at home in his career team starts against Cincinnati. Lowe is also 4-2 with a 1.37 ERA at home as opposed to 3-4 away with a 6.18 ERA this season. With Latos' road ERA (6.12) more than 2 full runs worse that his home ERA (3.91) this campaign, look for the Indians to go on the warpath here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Matt Fargo

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels

After winning their roadtrip opener at Seattle, the Giants lost the final two games over the weekend. They now trail the Dodgers by five games in the National League West and things will be tough starting this week against one of the hottest teams in baseball. San Francisco has been great at home but is an average 16-16 on the road and the pitching has been the biggest letdown as the starters have a 4.22 ERA in those games. San Francisco is now 2-5 in its last seven Interleague games. As mentioned, the Angels are one of the hottest teams in baseball as they are 18-6 over their last 24 games and after a slow start, they are doing their best to keep pace with the Rangers. They trail Texas by four games in the American League West and after winning their weekend series against Arizona, this is the start of a big week with a series against the Dodgers after this one. The pitching has led the way at home as Los Angeles has a teams ERA of 3.02 which is second best in the American League. We all know what happened with Matt Cain in his last start as he tossed a perfect game against the Astros. He has been sensational all season with a 2.18 ERA and 0.85 WHIP but his splits are pretty varied. At home he has a 1.45 ERA and 0.61 WHIP in seven starts and in six road starts he has a 3.23 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and while those numbers are still very good, it shows that the road is the place to go against him. The Giants are just 12-27 in Cain's last 39 road starts against teams with a winning record. The Angels send Jerome Williams to the mound and they are hoping for a turnaround. He has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts after posting four straight quality starts and eight quality outings over his last nine games. Like Cain, Williams has a big variance with his home/road splits as he has a 5.70 ERA in six road games compared to a 2.93 ERA in six home games. He is 5-1 at home and 1-3 on the road and going back to last year, the Angels are 8-1 in his last nine home starts.

Sean Higgs

Royals vs. Astros
Play: Over 8.5

There are plenty of under trends working against us, but these two pitchers have been anything but good this year. In 7 starts this year, Sanchez has yet to pitch 6 innings. Happ has +7 ERA his last 5 starts and teams are hitting him at a .296 clip.

Steve Merril

Rangers vs. Padres
Play: Over 7

The Padres return home after a winning road trip through Milwaukee, Seattle, and Oakland. Things get a lot tougher as they host the Rangers whose offense is as hot as ever. Charged with slowing them down is Jason Marquis who is 3-5 with a 6.60 ERA in nine starts. He is coming off a shutout effort against the Mariners in six and a third innings. That came after Marquis gave up 4 runs and nine hits to the Giants at home. Adrian Beltre (7-16) and Yorvit Torrealba (4-10) have had the most success for the Rangers against Marquis. Texas scored 23 runs in their series sweep of the Astros. They are hitting .282 on the road while scoring 5.1 runs per game. San Diego's bullpen has blown their fair share of games losing 13 while blowing 8 saves. Matt Harrison is 8-3 with a 3.54 ERA in 13 starts this season. But the southpaw has struggled on the road where he has allowed 19 runs and 44 hits in seven starts away from home. Harrison is facing a Padres’ offense that was hitting .252 with 33 doubles, 11 triples, and 18 home runs prior to Sunday’s game in Oakland. They are hitting right around .230 as a team for the season, but they’ve greatly improved with the addition of Carlos Quentin who is back from injury. They have actually gone Over the total in 9 of their last 12 games, and we expect another high-scoring game tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians

The Reds fit a negative system that has cashed 80% the last 9 seasons and plays against certain road teams off a road win in which they scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent off a home loss in a game where they scored 5 or more runs. The Indians have won 4 of 5 this season On Monday. This pitching matchup has Latos and Lowe meeting for the 2nd time in a week. Latos allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings in a loss on June 13th at home. Now he is on the road where he has a 6.12 era. Lowe was decent last week and figures to be better at home here tonight where he has a 1.37 home era. Look for Cleveland to cash this one.

David Chan

Reds @ Indians
Pick: Under 8.5

The Reds' (38-27) Mat Latos (5-2, 4.64 ERA) is set to square off against the Indians' (33-32) Derek Lowe (7-5, 3.78 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Latos is coming off a 5-3 win over these very same Indians just last Wednesday; he gave up two runs and seven hits over seven frames of work. He'd finish with seven strikeouts while issuing just a single free pass. Latos stumbled out of the blocks to start the season, but continues to improve with each start, and has now gone six or more innings in four of his last five outings.

Lowe gave up three runs over six frames in that 5-3 setback to the Reds last week. Lowe got into a heated argument with Reds manager Dusty Baker, and went on to plunk Brandon Phillips, which caused both benches to clear. Suffice it to say, Lowe hates Baker, and says there is still bad blood between the two from an argument they had four years ago.

It's interesting to note that the Reds have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 road games with a total of 8 to 8.5, while the Indians have seen it dip below the posted number in eight of 11 interleague contests.

I expect Lowe and Latos to battle deep into this one, and as a result will recommend a play on the "under"!

Bryan Power

Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians

Though I've stated many times that I'm far from sold on the Cleveland Indians this year, I did cash them on Friday, a 2-0 win over Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for Tribe fans, that would be their team's only win in the series as they fell to 1-5 last six overall. But I see them bouncing back here as the pitching matchup works in their favor and they will have revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered at the hands of the Reds in Cincinnati last week.

Derek Lowe gets the nod for Cleveland on Monday and despite losing his last two starts he's had a fine 2012 including a 1.38 ERA in six starts at home. Compare that to Cincinnati's Mat Latos, who has a 6.12 ERA in five starts away from home. This is a bit of "immediate revenge" as Latos beat Lowe on June 13th as Lowe had major control issues (six walks). That's a bit unusual as Cleveland is a strong 28-19 vs. righties this year. Cincinnati is off a three-game sweep of the Mets, but is just 9-24 on the road after allowing 2 runs or less.

This game is personal for Lowe, who got into a very public war of words with Reds manager Dusty Baker. I think pitching back at home gets Lowe back on track and Cleveland gains a measure of revenge for last week.

Sean Murphy

Blue Jays @ Brewers
PICK: Under 9

While both of these teams are known for their offensive prowess, neither are in top form at the moment.

Both the Jays and Brewers have put up an identical 22 runs over their last six games respectively, and I don't see either lighting up the scoreboard on Monday.

Henderson Alvarez gets the nod for the visiting Jays. He's worked exactly seven innings in each of his last two starts, and has failed to work into the seventh only twice in his last eight outings. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 in his last three starts, and 6-2 over his last eight trips to the hill. He owns a stellar 2.52 ERA in five road outings this season.

I've been one of Brewer starter Randy Wolf's biggest critics this season, but he's certainly proved me wrong lately. Wolf checks in off of back-to-back masterful outings, allowing just 10 hits and one earned run over 13 2/3 innings of work. He's actually been fairly solid here at Miller Park this season, recording a 3.80 ERA in seven starts. It's not as if the Jays have been mashing lefties this season, hitting a collective .220 while averaging only 3.3 runs per nine innings away from home.

With three starters hitting the D.L. in the last week alone, the Jays could certainly use a strong outing from Alvarez tonight. The Brew Crew are in a similar boat after running their bullpen dry in a 15-inning marathon in Minnesota yesterday. Look for both clubs to get their wish.

Tony George

Toronto Blue Jays -107

Off a 3 game sweep of Philly and going against Randy Wolf on the road who is struggling for the Brew Crew, and having the better starter and better bullpen here, I am taking the Blue Jays on the road against a team who has dropped 4 out of their last 6 and losing in bad fashion with their ace on the hill yesterday to lowly Minnesota.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Indians
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

The Battle for bragging rights in Ohio resumes on Monday as the Indians host the Reds. Cleveland has lost two games in a row and now trails first place Chicago by 1 1/2 games in the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Reds are riding a six-game winning streak as they come into Cleveland tonight. The Reds have increased their NL Central division lead to four games over the Pittsburgh Pirates. In addition, the Reds have won seven of their last 10 games. The Reds will send Mat Latos to the hill on Monday. Latos is 5-2 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season. The Reds have won the last five starts from Latos and eight of his last 10. Latos is also coming off one of his bets outings of the season, a seven inning win against Cleveland, allowing just two earned runs. Veteran Derek Lowe will start for the Tribe. Lowe is 7-5 this season with a 3.78 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Lowe lives and dies by his sinker ball and usually gets lots of ground balls. In fact, Lowe has allowed just two home runs in his last 10 starts. However, Lowe has lost his last two starts, one of which was to this Cincinnati club. Hard to go against a streaking team and that's just what we get here on Monday with the Reds. They are riding a six game win streak and have a pitcher in Latos that has already stifled the Tribe once. I look for the Reds to win again here on Monday and extend their streak to seven games.

Dave Cokin

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros

Royals could be short in the pen here and Sanchez usually doesn't go deep with his brutal control. Houston also hits lefties well at home, KC not so well on the road. Happ and the Astros are the call on this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati -109 over CLEVELAND

The Reds are scorching hot while the Indians are ice cold and that alone makes the visitor much more appealing. Cincinnati has won six straight, including a three-game sweep over these Indians last week in which they outscored them 24-9. Cincy will face Derek Lowe for the second time in less than a week and while they managed to defeat him, they only had five hits and three runs in that victory. This second time around, more damage is likely. Lowe has 28 strikeouts and 26 walks issued in 79 frames. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in the game. Lowe has seen his ERA rise from 2.05 on May 15 to his current 3.78. He hasn’t reached his xERA of 4.44 yet and we’re not about to be blinded by his 7-5 record either. Mat Latos is starting to turn things around after an ugly April. He’s allowed just five runs over his last two starts and the Reds have won his last five overall. The Dusty Baker/Derek Lowe feud takes on another chapter tonight. At the age of 38 and wallowing in mediocrity, you would think that Lowe would’ve learned to keep quiet. Baker and the Reds are smarter and will do their talking with their bats. Play: Cincinnati -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

Baltimore +165 over N.Y. METS

R.A. Dickey has been lights out and is an early season favorite to win the Cy Young award. He’s coming off a brilliant one-hitter against the Rays at the Trop, he’s 10-1 overall, he has a 2.20 ERA and at home, Dickey is 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA. Dickey has allowed one earned run combined over his last five starts. His last poor start was on April 18. These are Sandy Koufax/Bob Gibson like numbers and while Dickey is very good, he’s not this good. He’s been grabbing headlines all week after that near no-hitter in which he was robbed of it by a poor call by the official scorekeeper on an error by David Wright. This is the perfect letdown spot after that intense performance. Additionally, the Mets have gone cold with three straight losses in which they scored just five times. Jake Arrieta stumbled into a spot start his last time out and took full advantage, striking out nine while giving up one run in seven innings vs. Pittsburgh. His base skills have been excellent this season despite a 5.89 ERA, which can be blamed by an extremely low 58% strand percentage. The Orioles continue to play winning baseball with a series win over the Braves in Atlanta over the weekend, they’ve won seven of eight and they’re dangerous enough to break through against Dickey. The price is right too. Play: Baltimore +165 (Risking 2 units).

L.A. ANGELS -101 over San Francisco

Speaking of no-hitters and brilliant performances, Matt Cain will be out to disprove the notion that it is hard to bounce back after throwing a perfect game. He threw a season-high 125 pitches in his pursuit of perfection, many of which were pitched in a high stress situation. Fading a pitcher after a no-hitter has been money in the bank and we’re not about to back off this highly profitable angle here. Jerome Williams is 5-1 at home with a 2.93 ERA. He had strong games at home against Baltimore, Texas, the White Sox and Blue Jays and there’s no reason he can’t duplicate that here. Williams has a good strikeout rate, solid control an elite groundball profile of 54% and has turned into a very consistent starter. Play: L.A. Angels -105 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

Jimmy Boyd

New York Mets -1.5 +142

The Mets are showing value on the run line with Dickey on the mound. The Mets have won each of his last eight starts by an average of 3.9 runs. It also worth noting that 7 of those wins came by 2 runs or more. Dickey hasn't given up an earned runs in his last 4 starts spanning 32 2-3 innings. The Mets are a perfect 6-0 in his home starts this season with all 6 wins coming by at least 2 runs. They are also 8-0 in his interleague starts since the beginning of the 2010 season, winning those by an average score of 5.9 to 1.8. Baltimore, meanwhile, has lost 4 of its last 5 and 8 of its last 11 with Arrieta on the mound. He has given up at least 4 runs in each of those 8 losses. We'll bet the Mets on the run line.

Jack Jones

New York Yankees -1.5 (+100)

I'm siding with the red hot New York Yankees on Monday to beat the Atlanta Braves by multiple runs tonight. New York has won nine straight games coming in, with seven of those victories coming by two runs or more.

The Yankees have a huge edge on the mound in this one behind ace C.C. Sabathia. The left-hander is 8-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He's been at his best at home, going 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in five starts.

Mike Minor simply belongs in the minors. The left-hander is 3-4 with a 6.01 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in seven road outings. The Yankees are hitting .277 and scoring 5.7 runs/game against left-handed starters this season.

The Yankees are 9-0 against the money line against NL East opponents this season. The Braves are 0-9 against the money line when playing on Monday this season. Atlanta is 1-6 in their last 7 games overall. The Yankees are 11-1 in their last 12 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 24-3 in Sabathia's last 27 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.