Jeff Alexander
Houston Astros -113
The Royals will be fatigued in the first game of this series after a 15-inning marathon game Sunday. Kansas City used 7 relievers, and that puts its pen at a disadvantage in this one since starter Jonathan Sanchez is only averaging 4 1-3 innings per start. Happ hasn't been great for Houston but has been respectable at home where he is 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA. The Royals have never faced him, which doesn't bode well for them considering their struggles against southpaws. They are 16-48 in their last 64 road games vs. a left-handed starter, 1-7 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter and 0-4 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Astros, meanwhile, are 36-16 in their last 52 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 8-0 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Houston.
Dave Price
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 +126
The D-backs have the advantage on the mound with Miley, who is 6-3 with an ERA of 2.29. Seattle's Noesi is 2-7 with an ERA of 5.55, including 0-3 on the road with an ERA of 8.15. The Diamondbacks are 12-4 in Miley's last 16 starts, 6-1 in his last 7 home starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite. Those 5 wins have come by an average of 3.6 runs. Take the Snakes on the run line.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Atlanta/ NY Yanks Under 9: Gonna look to the Under in this. The Braves offense has been horrid of late as they have averaged just 1.7 rpg in their last 6 games and they have been been shutout in 3 of those games, including their last 2. Now they get to take on a Yankees staff that has a 1.97 ERA in June, with teams hitting just .224 off of them during the month. CC Sabathia gets the Ball for the Yanks tonight and he has been tough at home this year, with a 2.45 ERA and he hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in any of his 5 home starts this year. if CC has any trouble at all then a Yanks pen that has a 1.93 ERA in its last 10 games will take over. This Atlanta, that scored just 6 runs in their three games with the Yanks last week, will not break out tonight. Mike Minor has had a tough year, but he comes in allowing just 2 total ER's in his last 2 starts, including allowing just 1 ER in 7.1 innings to the Yanks in last week's meeting. The Yanks offense has been solid this year as always, but coming off a trip they may be a bit sluggish here, and will probably need to put up at least 7 runs for this one to go over as the Braves will be good for no more than 3. I look for abot 7 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NY Mets/ Baltimore Under 7: The Mets offense comes in struggling a bit as they have put up just 5 runs in their last 3 games and now they must take on a Baltimore team that has thrown 2 shutouts in a row. Scoring problems is nothing new for the Mets at home as they average just 3.85 rpg at Citi Field, compared to 5 rpg on the road. The O's come in hitting just .231 vs righties on the road and theyu score just 3.7 rp/9 off off them away from home. Jake Arrieta gets the ball for the O's tonight and he has struggled with a 5.89 ERA overall, but slightly better on the road with a 4.63 ERA, but he is facing a struggling Mets offense so he should have a good showing tonight, plus if he does get in trouble then he will turn the ball over to an O's pen 1.61 ERA on the road. The Mets will counter with the hottest pitcher in baseball, R.A. Dickey. R.A Comes in not haiving allowed an ER in his last 4 starts, which spans 32.67 innings of work. In his last 5 starts he has a 0.22 ERA and has 50 K's to just 3 walks over that span. At home he has a 1.45 ERA and those home starts have averaged just 6 rpg. Neither team will score a lot of runs in this one.
LA Angels/ San Francisco Over 7: Matt Cain has been awesome with an 0.38 ERA in his last 3 starts, but a closer look shows that two of those starts were at home, and the other one was in San Diego. On the road this year Matt has a 3.23 ERA, with his road starts averaging 9.5 rpg and that's thanks mainly to the fact that the Giants score better on the road (4.72 rpg) than at home (3.31 rpg) The Giants hit .274 on the road and they have averaged 5 rpg in Cain's 5 road starts. Jerome Williams was having a nice year, but he but he has allowed 10 ER's in his last 2 starts and could have problems with the Giants offense that is hitting .285 and scoring 4.4 rpg in their last 5 games. Jerome does have a 2.93 ERA at home, but his mates have averaged 5.2 rpg for him at home, thus his home starts have averaged 8.2 rpg. The Angels have had problems scoring of late, but they still average 3.8 rpg at home and should be good for at least 3 here, while the Giants will also put at least 3 on the board as well and that will at worst give us a push.
WUNDERDOG
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland +100
Cleveland isn't getting much respect with this betting number. They have a winning record, are thick in the middle of a pennant race and have home field. The Indians are 13-6 in their last 19 home games against a right-handed starter and have veteran Derek Lowe on the hill (7-5, 3.78 ERA), a big game pitcher with a World Series ring. He has been a terrific addition and has got back to not walking batters (26 in 78+ innings). He's also been a stopper: the Indians are 6-2 in Lowe's last eight starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Reds are 13-29 in their last 42 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record and 0-4 in the last four meetings in Cleveland. Play the Indians.
MLB Predictions
Kansas City Royals +105
The Kansas City Royals went into St Louis and took 2 of 3 against the Cardinals. Their wins were as +165 and +175 sized underdogs to give KC backers some nice returns. Those two victories followed a home sweep of Milwaukee and now makes them 5-1 over their last 6 games, 29-35 on the season and 18-15 on the road. Houston was swept by Texas and that followed losing 2 of 3 against San Francisco. They are now 27-39 on the year and 18-14 at home. Jonathan Sanchez will take the mound for Kansas City. Over his 7 starts he is 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and .269 opponents batting average. He has pitched better on the road going 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA and .176 opponents batting average. J.A. Happ will be throwing for Houston to make it a southpaw vs southpaw match up. Happ is 4-7 on the season with a 5.33 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .296 opponents batting average. In his last outing Happ gave up 11 hits and 8 earned runs over just 3.1 innings of work. That poor outing followed a 4.2 innings outing where he allowed 5 hits and walked 5 giving up 4 earned runs against. All 4 of his wins have come at home, but he is still just 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA at home allowing more hits than innings pitched. As a team the Royals are hitting .242 with a .301 OBP vs lefties, while the Astros are hitting just .214 with a .281 OBP against lefties. Note that the Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 vs left handed starters. Houston has won just 5 of their last 21 games overall, and are 4-11 in their last 15 games following a loss. The Astros are just 16-37 in Happ's last 53 starts overall, and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. They are also just 6-17 in his last 23 starts with 4 days of rest. The Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 while the Astros are 1-5 in their last 6, Happ is really struggling right now, and the Royals hit lefties better than the Astros. I think the wrong team is favored in this one, and I like the Royals to get it done tonight.