SPORTS WAGERS
Chile +1.39 over Switzerland
Switzerland pulled off the first massive upset victory of the 2010 World Cup when they defeated Spain 1-0. Spain outshot Switzerland 28-6 and controlled possession by massive margin of 63% - 37%. Gelson Fernandes' Swiss goal was more a result of sloppy Spanish defending than anything else. Chile on the other hand played a dominant 1-0 game against Honduras, moving the ball at will and landing 8 shots on target. Sure Honduras isn't the powerhouse that is Spain, but Chile seems to focus more on scoring opportunities rather than creating the perfect play. Chile has a young team brimming with talent that is constantly on the attack. Alexis Sanchez is an electrifying young player who seems to be on the verge of global fame at this World Cup. Chile is also expected to have their top striker, Humberto Suazo, back in the line-up to give them a more clinical attack. Many worry that the Chilean attack leaves them open to counter strikes, but I doubt the Swiss can take advantage of this with their defensive style of play. Both teams know that a victory would surely put them through to the 2nd round. People are placing too much of an emphasis on the Swiss victory against a half-cocked Spanish side. Chile is the more capable team and offer up all kinds of value on the right side of even money. Play: Chile +1.39 (Risking 2 units).
HONDURAS +2 -102 over Spain
Spain lost their opening match 1-0 to Switzerland as a result of its team operating as individuals. Every soccer/football fan can you tell that you can't win a World Cup without the presence fluidity on both sides of the ball. The Spaniards failed to convert on any of their 8 shots on target and had two horrible defensive blunders that lead to Swiss opportunities. Spain was actually very lucky that the Swiss only converted on one of the mistakes they made in their own end, narrowly striking the post on the other one. This is not to suggest see a similar effort today from Spain, but laying two goals after their opening effort is on the border of insanity. Honduras was able to hold a relentless Chilean attack to 1 goal and that game should give them a decent depiction of what they will see in this match. They only managed 5 shots of their own in that match and will probably try to hold off the Spanish side rather than attack them. They should take a page out of the Swiss playbook, playing defense first and counter-attacking only when the opportunity presents itself. The one thing that this World Cup has taught us is that it's very dangerous to lay goals, even on the most powerful soccer nations. Honduras will likely lose this match, but if they play for a draw it will be very difficult for Spain to break through for more than 2 goals. It only makes sense to take the goals with Honduras, as it gives us three chances to win and one to push out of the five possible outcomes with the two-goal spread on this match. Play: Honduras +2 –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
DUNKEL INDEX
Kansas City at Washington
The Royals look to take advantage of a Washington team that is 0-6 in its last 6 interleague games. Kansas City is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130)
Game 951-952: Kansas City at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 15.163; Washington (Hernandez) 14.365
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130); Under
Game 953-954: NY Yankees at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.606; Arizona (Lopez) 14.614
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-175); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-175); Over
Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.135; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.930
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Under
MTi Sports
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Diamondbacks are 0-11 as a dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and the Yankees are 9-0 as a 130+ favorite when they are off a win in which their starter went eight-plus innings. Consider NY.
Matt Fargo
Yankees vs. D-Backs
Play: Over 10.5
This number may seem high for a game played in Arizona but with this pitching matchup and the potential for these offenses, I think it is lower than it should be. The Yankees are coming off a 6-3 homestand but the offense saw a huge dip in production following 7.5 rpg through the first four games. Part of the issue was pitching as the Yankees went up against some tough starting pitching over the latter half of the homestand. Arizona is coming off a tough roadtrip where it went 1-5 and averaged only 3.7 rpg on offense but that has been the case for the offense all season when playing outside of Arizona. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.4 rpg at home compared to 4.1 rpg on the road this season. The Yankees production goes down away from New York but they still average a solid 4.7 rpg in road games. A.J. Burnett has been pitching horrible of late. He started the season with a 1.99 ERA through his first six starts but his last eight starts have seen him post a 6.36 ERA with just two of those starts being quality performances. The Yankees are just 3-5 in those games and even the potent New York offense has been unable to bail him out the majority of the time. Take away three starts against the Orioles and his ERA rises from 3.86 to 5.23. The run support comes back tonight however against Rodrigo Lopez. He has been up and down this season and after a very solid start, it has been mostly down. He has a 5.40 ERA at home this season and over his last six starts, his ERA is 5.85. He has had a lot of experience against the Yankees but it has been bad experience for him unfortunately. He has a 5.90 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 20 career starts against New York. Arizona is 11-3 to the ‘Over’ this season as an underdog of +150 or more while the Yankees are 25-11 to the ‘Over’ in their last 36 games against starting pitchers that allow one or more homeruns per start. 3* Over New York Yankees/Arizona Diamondbacks
Steve Merril
Yankees vs. D-Backs
Play: Over 10.5
The Yankees hit the road for a N.L. West roadtrip starting Monday night. Arizona’s Rodrigo Lopez is 2-6 with a 4.70 ERA on the season. Lopez is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts giving up 14 runs and 25 hits in 21 innings of work. Lopez last faced the Yankees back in 2007 giving up two runs and seven hits in 5.7 innings of work. Derek Jeter (26-58), A-Rod (14-48), Robinson Cano (6-21), Curtis Granderson (2-4), and Nick Swisher (1-3) all hit Lopez well. Lopez is backed by an Arizona bullpen that owns a 7.19 ERA with 16 losses and nine blown saves this season. New York’s A.J. Burnett has given up 16 runs and 20 hits in his last 16 innings pitched over his last three starts. The righty went 0-3 in those games taking losses against the Phillies, Orioles, and Blue Jays. Burnett is 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA on the road in eight starts, but he hasn't faced the Diamondbacks since 2005. Adam LaRoche (4-14), Kelly Johnson (2-4), and Chris Snyder (0-2) are the only Arizona hitters with a history against the Yankees starter. Arizona has gone Over in 20 of their 33 home games where they score 5.4 runs per game; they’ve gone Over in 43 of their 70 games overall. In interleague play, the Diamondbacks are hitting nearly .285 as a team. The Yankees bullpen has a 4.11 ERA this season, and they could see a lot of work here if Burnett continues to struggle. This should be a high-scoring game so we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Yankees and Diamondbacks.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Royals @ Nationals
PICK: Over 9
Bruce Chen gets the nod for the Royals; Chen suffered his first loss of the season last time out.
He allowed three runs over 5 2/3's innings on five hits, three walks with six K's.
He's 2-1 with a 5.29 ERA in his career vs. the Nats.
Important to point out that the Royals have seen the total go "over" the number in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog in the +125 to +150 range; also in 8 of 11 inter-league contests.
In the other dugout: Livan Hernandez gets the call for the home side; Hernandez is coming off a loss as well.
He blew an early lead on Wednesday; he's now 5-4 with a 2.94 ERA.
Hernandez allowed eight runs on seven hits in 6 2/3's innings against the Tigers; he's 1-3 over his last eight start.
He's 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in his career vs. the Royals.
Keep in mind that Washington has seen the total go "over" the number in 9 of 17 vs. left-handed starters this season.
Bottom line: The Royals were able to muster 5 runs yesterday, but it wasn't enough as they lost 8-5 to the Braves; Kansas City has seen the total go "over" the number in three straight now.
Washington put 3 runs on the board yesterday, but also came away with a loss, losing 6-3 to the White Sox.
When taking into account the recent poor play of each starter, the strong "over" trends that each of these sides exhibits in this position, along with these other factors, you may want to consider a second look at the OVER in this Inter-league contest.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Royals/Nationals UNDER 9
Hernandez is having a great season, and I expect him to be very sharp tonight after a rough outing his last time out. Hernandez has been at his best at home (1.89 ERA), and we have seen a total score of 9 or fewer runs in 12 of his 13 starts this season. The Under is 16-5-2 in Hernandez's last 23 starts overall and 7-0-1 in his last 8 home starts. While KC has been more of an Overs threat this season, we can't overlook the fact that the Under is 5-0 in the Royals' last 5 Monday games and 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Under is 3-1-1 in Chen's last 5 road starts and 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. We’ll bet the Under here tonight.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Oakland over Cincinnati
The Reds are in a hitting funk scoring just 13 runs in their last seven games. Cincinnati put 7 on the board in one of those encounters, so now you can see how deep this club has fallen off the hitting wagon. Yesterday, they were shutout again 1-0 by Seattle in a get away affair up in the Northwest. Overall the visitor is on a very negative 1-6 run and now face the A’s in Oakland where they are 1-8. RHP Mike Leake of the Reds is a quality starter throwing a solid 5-1 mark (3.02)this season. However, the youngster has regressed lately being wacked for 10 hits and 10 runs the last two outings versus the Giants and Dodgers. It appears Cincinnati is continuing their poor history versus west coast clubs.
EZWINNERS
New York Yankees -170
The Yankees starting pitcher AJ Burnett has struggled lately, but he has a great hitting lineup to help him out if this game turns into a slugfest. Arizona's starting pitcher Rodrigo Lopez has had some solid outings this season but when he's pitched well he got no run support from the D-Backs. Arizona has scored a total of 13 runs in Lopez's last five starts and that kind of effort won't get it done against the Bronx Bombers. The Diamondbacks are only 2-12 in their last fourteen interleague games as an underdog of +$150 or less and I don't expect that to change here. Play on New York.
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona hosts the Yankees tonight for the first game of the three game series. The Yankees have went over the total 8-1 when they have a rested bullpen that threw five innings or less over the last three games. The D-Backs have gone over the number 11-3 when they played as an underdog of +150 or more. Burnett who is starting for the Yankees, has been having some trouble on the mound. He has a 9.00 ERA and a 1.812 WHIP in his last three starts. On the other side of tonight’s matchup, Lopez has a 6.00 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP. Watch as these teams take the total over the number before the 7th inning!
Play on: OVER
Tony Karpinski
Yankees vs. D-Backs
Play: Over 10.5
If Arizona had any kind of depth to their starting rotation, Lopez would have been bumped to the bullpen a long time ago. The righty has delivered quality starts in just two of his last six appearances and Arizona is 0-5 in his last five outings. As for AJ Burnett, he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in 16 innings of work in June. Even worse, he’s given up 6 HR's and has not looks good. Lets play the OVER in this matchup on Monday night.
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
3* graded play on Arizona as they host the Yankees set to start at 10:05 and will be sen on ESPN TV. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 99-82 making 50.3 units since 1997. Play against road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 after 3 straight games where they committed no errors and with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game. Burnett is not pitching anywhere close to his top form and has not done well against weak hitting teams like Arizona. He is just 13-27 (-19.8 Units) against the money line versus a NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. Girardi is just 9-20 (-15.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 since being the Yankee skipper; 6-19 (-17.8 Units) against the money line versus NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season in all games he has managed since 1997. Take Arizona.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Washington Nationals -138
I'll back the Nats at home tonight with Hernandez on the hill. He has been right on the money at home this season, going 3-1 (6-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.89. The Nationals are 5-0 in Hernandez's last 5 starts as a home favorite, 14-3 in his last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 8-2 in his last 10 interleague starts. It is also worth noting that the Nats are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 28-9 in their last 37 interleague games as a favorite. The Royals have lost 5 of their last 6 meetings with Washington. Plus, Chen's 5.23 road ERA doesn't give the Royals a very good shot tonight. Bet the Nats.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Oakland A's -120
After a tough road trip, the A's will be happy to be back in their home park where they are 12-3 in their last 15 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. They should have the edge with Gonzalez on the hill as the A's are 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a favorite, and he will be facing a Reds offense that is hitting just .204 over its last 7 games. The Reds are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog and 1-8 in their last 9 meetings with the A's. Take the A's at home tonight.
Jim Feist
Yankees at D-Backs
The Yankees find themselves in a dogfight in the AL East as they lead the division by one game over Tampa Bay and Boston. The Yankees have the largest run differential in baseball (+101) and have won six of their last 10 games. A.J Burnett starts for New York and is 6-5 this season with a 4.33 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Burnett has struggled of late, losing his last three starts and allowing 16 earned runs in 20 innings. Arizona occupies last place in the NL West, 13 1/2 games back of San Diego. The D-backs have lost seven of their last 10 games including Sunday at Detroit, 3-1. Rodrigo Lopez starts for the D-backs. Lopez is 2-6 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Lopez has lost four straight games and has been hit hard his last two outings, allowing 11 earned runs in 14 innings. The D'backs have a very talented starting lineup, but that's where it ends for this team. They have no quality backup or reserve players and their staff is very questionable. The Yankees are laying a big price here on the road, but they should have little trouble with the last place Diamondbacks. Play the NY Yankees.