Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday June, 25

Marc Lawrence

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

When the Mariners open a three game series with Tom Milone and division rival Oakland Monday night Seattle will do so knowing they've captured 8 of the last 13 games at home in this series. With Milone 3-5 with a 7.42 ERA away as opposed to 5-1 with a 0.99 ERA at home this season, look for the A's to fall to 1-6 in road series openers here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Seattle.

Ben Burns

San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros

I successfully backed the Padres with yesterday's free play. They won 2-0 grabbing the rubber game of a series against Seattle. However, this figures to be a good spot to go against them. Yesterday, I noted San Diego's surprisingly solid record the past few seasons, when playing during the afternoon. When playing a day game at Petco Park, the Padres actually aren't a bad team. Playing on the road and under the lights is a different matter though.

With Saturday night's 5-1 loss, the Padres are now 16-28 (-9.4) under the lights. Including that setback, which had followed a Friday win, the Padres are also a dismal 8-17 (-8.4) when off a victory.

While the Padres are 10-23 on the road, the Astros are 21-17 at home. The Astros have taken eight of the last 12 meetings against the Padres here. With Ohlendorf scheduled to get the call for the visitors, consider Houston.

Jesse Schule

Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Oakland Athletics

Oakland will give youngster Tommy Milone the start in Seattle today, as he will try to get something going on the road. Milone (7-5, 4.13 ERA) has been excellent at home this season, with the second best ERA (0.99) in the majors, when playing in Oakland. He hasn't been as fortunate on the road however, going 2-4 with a 7.42 ERA in eight road starts this season. He has been roughed up in some tough ballparks though, including Coors Field, The Ballpark in Arlington, and Fenway Park in Beantown.

Milone might be able to make himself feel at home here in Seattle, as this is a park that has been far more kind to pitchers. He fared pretty well in his only previous start at Safeco, allowing just two hits over six innings. Unfortunately one of those hits was a homer, and Milone took a 4-0 loss. The Mariners haven't put anything but doughnuts on the board for their last 14 innings, and Milone will look to add to their struggles here today.

Seattle hands the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, who has struggled lately. Ramirez (0-1, 5.40) only went four innings in his last start, getting chased from the game after allowing five runs on seven hits. In the start previous to that, he lasted five innings, surrendering six runs on eight hits. The Oakland lineup should be licking their lips, with a chance to sink their teeth into "Tickle Me ERASMO".

I know Milone has struggled on the road this season, but coming off a complete game three hit performance in his last start, and pitching in a pitcher's park on the west coast, he might as well be at home here today. I am looking for another brilliant performance from Milone, and it wouldn't shock me if Erasmo gets rocked.

Matt Fargo

St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

After losing their series in Detroit, the Cardinals rebounded with a series sweep at Kansas City over the weekend. They are now three games over .500 and sit just two games behind the Reds and a game behind the Pirates in the National League Central. St. Louis now has 21 road wins which is tied for fourth most in all of baseball as both the offense and starting pitching have been above average. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite between -110 and -150.

Miami was able to salvage the final game of its series against the Blue Jays as things continue to go the wrong way. After losing two of three to Toronto, the Marlins are now 5-16 over their last 21 games to fall to 34-38 overall which puts them eight games behind the Nationals in the National League East. They have been outscored by 64 runs this year, fourth most in the Majors and this is not a great spot as they are 18-48 in their last 66 games as a home underdog.

The Cardinals open the series with Jake Westbrook taking the hill and he is back to pitching strong again. He started the season strong but had a rough run where he allowed five runs in three straight starts but he was able to bounce back during Interleague play as he tossed three straight quality outings, posting a 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in the process. Westbrook has a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in four career starts against the Marlins and St. Louis is 5-2 in his last seven starts as a road favorite.

Ricky Nolasco takes the mound for the Marlins and it has not been a good run. He is coming off a shellacking at Boston where he allowed nine runs in 3.1 innings and while it snapped a string of two quality outings, he only has three of those over his last eight starts. His Era is now up to 5.16 and even with the bad start in Boston, he has pitched worse at home as he has a 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in seven starts. The Marlins are 3-9 in Nolasco's last 12 home starts against teams with a winning record.

Rob Vinciletti

St Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals fit a nice system here tonight that plays on road favorites off a road win where they scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a home favored win by 5 or more runs. These road favorites cash 79% of the time. St. Louis has J. Westbrook going and his sinker has been much better of late as he had plenty of ground ball outs in his complete game gem at Detroit last out. Tonight he opposes the inconsistent R. Nolasco. In his home starts Nolasco has lost his last three. He is also 0-3 in home starts vs the Cardinals and has lost his last 6 home starts in the month of June. With the Cardinals having won the last 5 on the road vs the fish we will back them to hook them once again. Take St. Louis.

Freddy Wills

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Chicago White Sox

Jake Peavy has been on fire of late posting a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts combined to go along with a 1.00 WHIP. Peavy has been even better on the road this year where he will be on Monday facing off against the Twins a team he's regularly dominated. Peavy posts a 1.67 ERA on the road this year and the Twins hitters have a combined 91 AB and just a .614 OPS. The Twins are 25th with a .690 OPS vs. RHP this season and are 31-66 in their last 97 starts vs. RH starters overall. Twins usually score runs by getting on base, but Peavy has been great with his control and allowing hits. The Twins are just 5-23 in their last 28 vs. a starter with a WHIP < 1.15.

On the flip side the White Sox will face Francisco Liriano and after acquiring Kevin Youkilis on Sunday I think they have that much more of a shot to win this game. Youkilis can surely get on base against LHP and it's been one of the weaknesses of this White Sox club. Adding Youkilis really improved their line up with the weakness they had at 3B. I expect him to make a big impact on this team. He's 4-14 with a HR vs. Liriano who struggles with his control walking over 5 guys per 9 innings. Liriano has been nothing special with a 5.57 ERA at home and the White Sox have 120 AB against him with a .716 OPS.

Notable Hot Starters:
Justin Masterson (2-1, 0.65 WHIP, 0.39 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (2-1, 1.10 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)
Jake Westbrook (2-1, 0.95 WHIP, 2.57 ERA)
Steven Strasburg (3-0, 1.00 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Nate Eovaldi (0-3, 1.44 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Always an interesting topic is one where we have a pitcher that is just not pitching well over his last three games and we are giving him more than a 50% of winning. In this case we are giving that shot to Barry Zito surprisingly who goes up against the Dodgers. The Dodgers are struggling to put runs up on the board and Zito has not been terrible at home posting a 3.83 ERA. Zito also has success against LA holding them to a .687 OPS in 247 AB.

Notable Cold Starters:
Henderson Alvarez (0-3, 1.67 WHIP, 6.50 ERA)
Felix Doubront (2-1, 1.35 WHIP, 6.35 ERA)
Ricky Nolasco (0-3, 1.70 WHIP, 8.80 ERA)
Matt Latos (2-1, 1.44 WHIP, 6.23 ERA)
Jeff Francis (2-1, 2.05 WHIP, 8.56 ERA)
Tommy Milone (2-1, 1.44 WHIP, 6.50 ERA)
Barry Zito (0-3, 2.16 WHIP, 10.67 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Mat Latos is capable of a strong outing, but the bad ones are outnumbering the good ones for the Reds righty. Yovani Gallardo has been much steadier lately and I see him with enough of an edge to tilt the Brewers way tonight.

Jim Feist

White Sox vs Twins
Pick: Under

It took extra innings on Sunday, but the White Sox pitching staff was excellent,holding the Brewers to no runs before the Sox could push one over in the 10th for a 1-0 win. The win was the 2nd in a row for the Sox and put them into the first place lead in the AL Central, a half game ahead of the Indians. Meanwhile, the Twins got a rare road win at Cincinnati on Sunday, 4-3. It was just the club's 13th road victory of the season. I'm going with the UNDER here on Monday. Mainly because we get two excellent pitchers. Jake Peavy will start for the Sox and he's been very good of late. Peavy has a 1.64 ERA in his last three games with a 1.00 WHIP, but not much to show for it with two losses. Francisco Liriano will counter for the Twins. Liriana also has been the recipient of no run support, with just a 3.93 ERA over his last three stars and an excellent 0.98 WHIP. Neither of these clubs has been hitting much, but they have excellent pitching and pens. This one has UNDER written all over it.

SPORTS WAGERS

Milwaukee +126 over CINCINNATI

Mat Latos is not right. He’s posted a 6.97 ERA in four June starts against the Tigers, the Astros and then the Indians twice. He’s throwing too many pitches in his starts and the result is that his skills decline rapidly the second and third time through an opposing lineup (when he manages to gets that far). He allowed three jacks in his last start and as a consequence of that poor showing, Dusty Baker pushed him back a day for this start. Yovani Gallardo tossed a gem against Cinci on May 8, giving up four hits while striking out eight over six innings. Through four starts in June, his base skills have been elite (52% groundball rate, high strikeout rate and xERA of 3.07). Gallardo had a rough first two months of the year but he’s back to being the dominant pitcher that we’ve been accustomed to seeing over the past three years. He’s always escalated his game as the season progressed and he’s a much better option taking back a tag than Latos is spotting one. Play: Milwaukee +126 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +105 over SAN FRANCISCO

Nate Eovaldi is a solid prospect who could either become a top-notch starter or a dominant late-innings reliever. He pitched 34.2 innings with Los Angeles in '11 and posted a 3.63 ERA. He has a 92-98 MPH fastball and induces a high percentage of groundballs with that late breaking pitch that he keeps low. He was called up on May 29 and the Dodgers are 0-5 in his five starts but he’s pitched well. He has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any of his starts and that includes one at Coors Field. He has a strong groundball rate of 48% and a decent strikeout rate. The kid can pitch and deserves much better than his one career win in 11 major league starts. Barry Zito should not be favored here given his 4.92 xERA so far this season. He has given up at least four runs and struck out no more than three batters in each of his last three outings. Zito is still Zito. He’s hittable, he walks too many and he’s as beatable as any pitcher in the majors. The Dodgers have scored five times in support of Eovaldi in his five starts. They have a good chance of matching that output here. Play: Los Angeles +105 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay -107 over KANSAS CITY

The Royals were swept by the Cardinals on the weekend with the pitching staff allowing 30 runs over the three-game set. The starters lasted a combined 12.2 innings over the weekend, meaning that the pen was used extensively for over 16 frames. The Royals’ pen has pitched the most innings in baseball and they’ll likely be called upon again here. Luke Hochevar has six starts in his career against the Rays, where he is 1-2 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 30.1 IP. He has a 5.65 ERA this season and while he’s been better recently, few starters were worse than him in May. At home this season, Hochevar is 0-4 with an ERA of 8.59. That combination of pitching at home against a team that he keeps imploding upon cannot have him feeling too good about this start. Tampa arrives here after taking a doubleheader in Philadelphia yesterday. The Rays will be running to the park to face this staff after playing their past six games against the stingy staff of the Nationals and Phillies. Alex Cobb has started six games for the Rays and in five of those starts he didn’t allow a home run. He’s coming off a brilliant two-hit shutout in seven frames against the Marlins. Cobb has an elite 62% groundball rate and a very good strikeout rate of 32 batters in 38 innings. We get the superior team in better form with the better pitcher and we spot a puny price to do so. Stand in line. Play: Tampa Bay -107 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Sean Murphy

St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

The Marlins snapped their six-game losing streak with a 9-0 win over the Blue Jays on Sunday, but let's not get too excited.

That victory came after the Jays had already taken the first two games of the series, and Toronto was more than likely peering ahead to Monday's series opener against the rival Red Sox at Fenway Park.

It didn't hurt that the Jays sent Jesse Chavez to the hill either. Tonight, the Marlins will be facing a veteran hurler in Jake Westbrook.

I'm expecting some offense in this game, and with that in mind, the Cardinals hold a significant edge. Note that St. Louis just scored 30 runs in sweeping the Royals in a three-game series in Kansas City.

The Cards have dealt with injury issues all season, but they're getting back to full strength, with both Jon Jay and Matt Carpenter returning to the fold (and making immediate impacts) over the weekend.

St. Louis can look forward to teeing off on Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco tonight. He's been terrible this season, recording a 5.16 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work. Perhaps that shouldn't come as a surprise, as he went 10-12 with a 4.67 ERA last season.

Nolasco's strikeout numbers are down while his home runs allowed are up. He's coming off a start in which he was tagged for nine earned runs in only 3 1/3 innings against the Red Sox. He's by no means stepping down in class against the Cardinals here.

St. Louis has taken five straight meetings in this series, including the season opener here in Miami. The Cards are a winning team on the road at 21-19, while the Marlins are just 18-20 in their new home. No need to overthink this one.

Bryan Power

Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

The Royals are just so bad at home. I can't remember the last time I saw a team struggle so much in its home park. They were swept over the weekend by St. Louis, falling to 11-24 at Kauffman Stadium for the year and things will get no easier to start the week when Tampa Bay comes to town. The Rays defeated a pair of Philadelphia lefties - Cole Hamels & Cliff Lee - which is no small order, sweeping a doubleheader. Look for that momentum to carry over into Monday's series opener.

Though he tossed 7.7 scoreless innings against Houston last time out, I still don't like what I've seen from KC starter Luke Hochevar this season, particularly his 8.56 ERA in six home starts. Hochevar has never fared well against the Rays either with a 1-5 team start record and 7.42 ERA. TB starter Alex Cobb also didn't allow a run in his previous start, but he's got the better team behind him and I expect the visitors to show the home team "who's boss" on Monday!

Jimmy Boyd

Houston Astros -145

Off back-to-back impressive wins over Cleveland, expect the Astros to keep right on rolling against a San Diego club that is just 10-23 on the road. In addition to San Diego's road struggles, it has also struggled against left-handed pitching. The Padres, who are hitting just .217 against southpaw starters, are 5-19 when facing them this season. They likely won't have much luck against Wandy Rodriguez, who is 4-0 on the money line in his last 4 starts against them, limiting them to 1 earned run or fewer in 3 of those outings. Rodriguez also has one of the highest run-support averages in the NL. Ross Ohlendorf is 0-3 on the ML in his last 3 starts and 0-6 (1-8 on the ML) with an ERA of 5.96 in 9 career starts versus Houston. We'll take the Astros.

Jack Jones

St. Louis Cardinals -111

I'll side with the St. Louis Cardinals Monday as they stay red hot at the plate, while also getting another great start out of Jake Westbrook. St. Louis scored 30 runs while sweeping a 3-game set at Kansas City over the weekend.

Westbrook is 6-6 with a 3.83 ERA in 14 starts this season, 3-4 with a 2.93 ERA in seven road starts, and 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three outings. He pitched a complete game without allowing a single earned run in a 3-1 victory at Detroit last time out.

Ricky Nolasco has really struggled in 2012. The right-hander is 6-6 with a 5.16 ERA in 14 starts, 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in seven home starts, and 0-3 with an 8.81 ERA in his last three outings. Nolasco gave up 9 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of a 5-15 loss at Boston in his last start.

Westbrook is 1-0 with a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against Miami, while Nolasco is 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA in six career starts against St. Louis. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are 5-16 in their last 21 games overall. Miami is 18-48 in their last 66 games as a home underdog. Bet the Cardinals Monday.

Brad Diamond

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: New York Mets

Off another loss Sunday the Cubs venture back home to face the Mets and lefty Santana. In June Chicago has regressed going 6-15. Whereas the Mets are off back-to-back home losses to the powerful Yankees, prior to, they took 4 straight encounters against Baltimore and New York in Interleague play. In addition, New York has won 3 straight road games. With Johan Santana on the hill the Mets to be in good shape to bounce-back out in Chicago. Santana has a life time mark of 3-0 against the Cubs. The Mets show at 4-0 with Santana after allowing 5 runs or more in their last game. Further, NY is 4-1 in Santana’s last five starts. The suffering Cubbies log-in today at 1-4 with lefty Wood when booked as an underdog. We finish Chicago in a horrible position at 5-22 off a loss. No doubt hurler Travis Wood of Chicago is decent form, but the Mets are coming off the Yankees, so the Mets should handle this drop in talent quite easily.