Tony George
Tampa Bay -105
Not sold on KC at basically even odds here although Hochevar is pitching better. He still is 0-4 at home and has a home ERA of 8.59! Tampa a better team. Kansas City had a tough weekend against in state rival St. Louis in the I-70 series in a 3 game sweep by the Cards in KC by a total combined score of 30-14. Tampa dating back to early last year is 5-0 their last 5 against the Royals. Tampa off a weekend series against Philly on the road where they won the series 2-1 and Alex Cobb takes the hill with an overall ERA of 3.82 on the year. Tampa should have more run support and KC's bullpen was lit up all weekend. Balls should fly in 90 degree heat at Kauffman stadium tonight, many of them Tampa's. KC just 11-23 at home this year.
Lenny Del Genio
New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: New York Mets
Though the Mets' loss to the Yankees Sunday night tempers our enthusiasm somewhat here, they should still have plenty left in the tank to take care of the sorry, no account Cubs. Particularly w/ Johan Santana on the hill. Santana has been one of our favorite pitchers to play on so far as we had him in his no-hitter vs. San Diego and he again did not allow any runs in his last start, a 5-0 win over Baltimore. Not only is Santana a perfect 3-0 in his career vs. Chicago (1.61 ERA), but he also a 7-0 TSR L2 seasons when the Mets are off BB losses. The Cubs have been terrible vs. left-handers so far, going 3-16 for the year while averaging only 3.2 runs per game.
Teddy Covers
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Giants
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Barry Zito these days. Zito has been nothing short of awful following a brief April resurgence. The Giants are just 4-7 in his last eleven trips to the hill, including a 1-4 mark when he’s been installed as the favorite or a near pick ‘em underdog. He’s been lit up in each of his last three starts: 23 hits and 17 earned runs allowed in just 14.1 innings of work, poised for another rough outing here.
Zito was on the wrong end of a 9-1 loss to the Dodgers in his lone previous start against them this season. The Giants lost his lone start against LA last year. In their World Series winning season of 2010, the Giants lost five of Zito’s six starts against the Dodgers. This is one lineup that knows Zito’s many weaknesses and has proven quite capable of exploiting them.
The Dodgers are in the midst of a bad road trip, dropping five of their first six games against the A’s and Angels. But LA is not a team prone to losing streaks, losing five out of six on only one previous occasion this year. And they’ve got a streak stopper on the hill in Nathan Eovaldi this evening. Eovdali has been on the wrong end of some really tough decisions over the past month, but the guy has been nothing short of brilliant, allowing only nine runs (eight earned) in his five previous starts. Look for another gem here…. Take the Dodgers.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -107
After getting swept at home by the Cardinals over the weekend, the Royals fell to 11-23 at home on the season. Expect their struggles inside Kauffman Stadium to continue with Hochevar on the hill. He's 0-4 with an ERA of 8.59 in 6 home starts this season with the Royals losing 5 of those. He's also 1-2 with an ERA of 7.42 in 6 career starts versus Tampa Bay with the Royals also losing 5 of those. Fade Kansas City.
Jeff Alexander
Texas Rangers -141
The Rangers are rolling with wins in 8 of their last 9 games. They have won their last 4 at home versus Detroit and will have an excellent opportunity to pick up another win over the Tigers here given the way the smacked Porcello around earlier this season. They clocked him for 9 runs in the first inning of a 10-4 win back in April. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter and 41-15 in their last 56 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Take Texas.
Rocketman
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Oakland Athletics
Oakland travels to Seattle to take on the Mariners in Game One of this 3 game series. Seattle is 33-78 the past 3 years when they face left handed starters. Oakland is allowing only 2.9 runs per game their past seven games overall and 3.1 runs per game against division opponents this year. Seattle is scoring only 3.1 runs per game at home this year where they have a team batting average of .202. Seattle is allowing 6.1 runs per game their past seven games overall. Tom Milone is 7-5 overall this year and 1-0 his last 3 starts. Erasmo Ramirez is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in all his starts this year. Oakland is 7-1 last 8 games against right handed starters. Seattle is 14-40 last 54 home games against left handed starters. Seattle is 2-11 last 13 games vs a team with a losing record. Oakland continues to be scrappy here tonight and gets another win. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight!
Nelly
Oakland - over Seattle
The A's got a huge win Sunday with late dramatics to avoid a sweep against rival San Francisco and Oakland continues to play excellent ball over the last two weeks, going 9-3 the last twelve games. The offense has done its part scoring nearly six runs per game in that span and Oakland has posted over seven runs per game against right-handed pitching in the last ten games. Oakland's .355 wOBA is the best in baseball over the last two weeks, a far jump from the season statistics. Seattle is just 4-10 in the last 14 games and only three times have they scored more than five runs in that span. For the year Seattle is batting just .235 and scoring only 3.8 runs per game against left-handed pitching. On the year the Mariners are 8-13 vs. left-handed starters and Tom Milone has proven to be a capable starter for the A's. Only once in his last eight starts did he allow more than four runs and that rough outing came in Colorado, where virtually every pitcher struggles. That game has skewed his recent numbers which otherwise have been excellent with four quality starts in his last six games. Erasmo Ramirez is making just the third start of his season and career after serving as a reliever in the first month of the year before going down to the minors to build his endurance. Ramirez had great numbers as a reliever but in two starts he has allowed 15 hits and eleven runs in just nine innings. Both teams have good bullpens but Seattle is just 3-10 in the last 13 home games and this line is not reflective of how much more productive the Oakland offense has been in recent weeks.
Dave Essler
Kansas City Royals +100
There is little or no doubt that the Royals will be a popular premium play today, since the Rays played two last night and then had to travel. Add to that the fact that the Royals do typically hit left-handed pitchers quite well, and at even money this is typically an auto-bet. I can find no reason not to at this point, and even though the line is moving heavily in favor of KC despite the majority of tickets being on the Rays, we're gonna pull the trigger. Often times I dislike being THAT much of a follower, but it was my next best lean after the RL game of the week last night. Speaking of that GOW, if I had it to re-enter, I might well make it a 3* play. It's nothing more than a label to me.
GoodFella
Chicago White Sox -108
The White Sox are now in FIRST PLACE in the AL Central, much to the chagrin of the Tigers' and their fans. Now they will have what we hope is a rejuvenated Kevin Youkilis in the lineup, and Jake Peavy on the mound. Peavy has simply owned the Twins over the years, and Minnesota is in a first-game-back situation which is always a good fade. The White Sox have proven they can win both sluggests' as well as pitchers' duels, and are simply playing with supreme confidence right now. Peavy has been excellent at Target Field in 2 starts: 14 1/3 IP, 0 runs, 15/2 K/BB ratio & a .143 BAA. There are few teams that know Liriano as well as the White Sox, & I look for Peavy to outpitch the erratic Liriano & my money is on the White Sox tonight.
MATT RIVERS
4 straight free play winners thanks to the Cardinals cashing in on Sunday, and I will come with the Cardinals to cash in again this Monday night at Miami.
St. Louis just swept Kansas City, and they did so by scoring a whopping 30 runs in the three game sweep.
Look for that hot hitting to continue tonight in Miami against Ricky Nolasco who has not been fooling too many batters of late. Nolasco has allowed 15 earned runs his last 15-plus innings pitched, and does sport an over five ERA for the season.
The Marlins were a winner yesterday, but their wins have been few-and-far-between in the month of June, as Miami is on a 3-15 skid their last 18 games played.
The Cardinals will give Jake Westbrook the ball, as Westbrook seeks his third straight win. Westbrook went the route in defeating Detroit his last time out, allowing just one run - and it was unearned.
St. Louis has won the last six series meetings versus Miami, and tonight they make it seven wins in a row over the slumping Marlins.
5♦ ST. LOUIS
Jeff Benton
Monday freebie is the White Sox to dump the Twins.
The Sox have had the Twins number of late, taking two of three already this season over Minnesota, and seven of the last ten dating back to last season versus the Twins.
Jake Peavy has lost his last pair of starts, and is 0-2 the last four times he has made the start, but you can't fault him, as he has only allowed six earned runs to score over those four starts - a span of 28-plus innings.
His counterpart Francisco Liriano did pitch a solid game his last time out in a no-decision versus the Pirates, but Liriano has been a bust this year at 1-7 with an over five ERA. Minnesota is just 3-8 this season when Liriano makes the start.
Minnesota is just 13-22 at home this year, while the first-place White Sox have gone a nice 19-13 on the road this season.
Peavy and the Sox to win tonight's series opener.
4♦ WHITE SOX
Craig Davis
Monday's free play is the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Don't look now, but all of a sudden the SF Giants are right there on the tails of the Dodgers for the NL West lead. Since Matt Kemp hasn't been in the lineup this second time around, the Dodgers have kinda gone into free-fall mode while the Giants have gotten hot behind some strong starting pitching.
Tonight, however, I believe the Dodgers will come to play... even though it's on the road.
I like what I've been seeing from youngster Nathan Eovaldi. His biggest problem is not his pitching... but his offense. He has a 2.35 ERA for a reason, but he also has an 0-3 record in five starts for a reason as well.
Listen to these final scores in his starts: 4-1, 2-1, 1-0, 3-2, and 2-1. All losses by the Dodgers.
That trend can't continue again tonight, can it? Surely not. Not with Barry Zito and his 4.35 ERA.
This is a massive rivalry and I'm going to err on the side of the better starting pitcher... and that's clearly Nathan Eovaldi and the Dodgers.
Take Los Angeles as your free play of the day.
2♦ LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at t the Cleveland Indians on the run line to cover against the New York Yankees.
For the Yankees, there could be an emotional letdown after beating the Mets and R.A. Dickey.
Hiroki Kuroda gets the start for the Yankees.
He has decent numbers as he has gone 6-7 with a 3.57 ERA, but had a rough outing his last time out. He gave up four runs against the Braves.
Josh Tomlin starts for the Indians. He is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA. But in his last three starts, he had two good outings, giving up one run against the Reds on June 18 and two runs against the Cardinals on June 8.
He could give the Indians a decent start and keep the Indians in the game.
Take the Indians on the run line.
2♦ INDIANS -1.5
MLB Predictions
Boston Red Sox -147 & Boston Red Sox -1.5 +130
So instead of going two units on the Red Sox to win we are going to put one unit on them to win, and one unit on them to win by 2 or more (run line). I've done this earlier in the season with success and think it is the best way to break down tonight's play.
The Blue Jays are coming off a series win in Miami, but lost their game yesterday 9-0. Boston has won two straight games coming into tonight, and they have won 7 of their last 8 games overall. Boston has moved ahead of Toronto in the AL East with a 38-34 record, while the Blue Jays are 37-35. Toronto is 18-20 on the road and Boston is 19-20 at home. Tonight's pitcher for Toronto will be Henderson Alvarez who hasn't won since May 10th. He is 3-6 on the season with a 4.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .289 opponents batting average. In his last outing he went 4 innings allowing 11 hits and 6 earned runs against. Southpaw Felix Doubront will take the mound for Boston, and he is 8-3 on the season with a 4.31 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .254 opponents batting average. His last outing wasn't his best as he allowed 4 earned runs against in 6 innings of work, but he was rewarded the win. In his start prior to that he went 7 innings striking out 9 batters and allowed just 2 earned runs against. Take note that the Blue Jays are just 3-11 in Alvarez' starts this year, while the Red Sox are 10-4 when Doubront starts. Last season the Red Sox were 6-2 against the Blue Jays at home. Take note that Toronto is 4-10 in their last 14 games as a road underdog, 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs a left handed starter, and 3-10 in their last 13 games following a game where they scored 2 or fewer runs. The Jays are also 0-7 in Alvarez' last 7 starts, and 2-5 in his last 7 road starts. Boston is 4-1 in Doubront's last 5 starts, and 5-2 in his last 7 starts as a favorite. Doubront has already beaten the Blue Jays twice this season (both in Toronto). The Red Sox are heating up right now, while the Blue Jays are trying to battle through some injuries and are coming off being shut out on Sunday. I expect Henderson Alvarez to struggle again tonight at Fenway. Take the Red Sox here with a split play between the run line and money line.
Fairway Jay
LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Play: Los Angeles 1st 5 innings
The winning streak continues as we’re swinging a hot stick during our 10-1 MLB baseball run the past 10 days. Included is a perfect 7-0 top-play Big Drive run and we’re primed to add to our June and season-long profits with a top Big Drive total tonight between familiar foes. Projected strong pitching and preferred match-ups get the call as we fire for more profit and green.
Speaking of familiar foes, we chipped-in a solid plus price winner with analysis when the NY Mets beat the Yankees Friday night and our 5-inning recommendation hit a home run with Niese over Pettitte. Tonight a pair of NL West rivals do battle in the Bay as the Dodgers (43-30) travel to San Francisco to take on the Giants (40-33). San Francisco trails LA by three games following its late-inning meltdown at Oakland on Sunday. The Giants were 34-1 when leading after 7 innings until Sunday. But no time to lapse after a tough loss when your rival comes to town and a series sweep moves you into first place.
The Giants will try to close the gap on the Dodgers in the series opener with their worst starting pitcher taking the mound. Barry Zito continues to be quite hittable while showing very questionable command. He’s allowed 78 hits, 36 BB and 11 HRs in 80 innings while posting a 4.35 ERA. However, his xERA is closer to 5.00 and his recent results are awful, as Zito has allowed 5 HRs his last three starts while getting rocked for 17 runs and 23 hits in 14 innings. His strikeout rate continues to decline and he has just 45 punchouts this season. On May 7th he took the loss vs. the Dodgers after allowing three runs, eight hits and four walks in six innings at Los Angeles and Zito is winless over his last eight starts against the Dodgers.
Nate Eovaldi (0-3) is winless in five starts for the Dodgers after being called up to the Majors in late May. But his 2.35 ERA and .243 BAA shows he’s capable while pitching six innings consistently. The 22-year old right-hander also showed well in 10 games late last season and the Giants will see him for the first time. He commands a 91+ mph fastball with a solid ground ball profile. The Dodgers have scored 1, 1, 0, 2 and 1 runs in his five starts and their poor recent hitting is a concern as the Dodgers are 1-5 on their current road trip and hitting just .194 with 2.14 runs per game their last seven contests overall. But facing Zito and their division rival may be just what the doctor ordered to snap out of their hitting struggles.
Note too that backup catcher Hectro Sanchez has caught all 14 of Zito’s starts this season, and cleanup hitter/catcher and likely All-Star Buster Posey (.295, 10 HR) may sit this game out and be ready for pinch-hitting duties late.
At a pick ‘em price, we’ll zero in on playing against Zito as the Dodgers look to reward their young pitching prospect with his first win this season in a key division contest.