Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 28,2010

MTi Sports
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Cubs are 0-6 in the first game of a series when they are off a win and 0-7 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. The Pirates are 4-0 as a 140+ dog vs an NL opponent with Maholm when they lost his last start and the Cubs are 1-5 when Randy Wells starts as a home favorite when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games. Grab this inflated price.

BIG AL
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Phillies @ Reds
PICK: Over 9.5
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When considering the National League Most Valuable Player (MVP) award for this season, those who vote for the award should think about the word "valuable" and what it means in the context of a team's performance with and without a specific player. The Phillies were having serious problems scoring runs for a good portion of the month of June and as a result, they slipped from their normal first place position in the NL East. But since the return of shortstop Jimmy Rollins, on the DL for about one month, the Phils offense has seemed like a different group. In just his second game back with the team, Rollins hit a game-winning, walk-off home run to account for the sixth and seventh runs. In the five games since Rollins' return, the Phils have scored a total of 30 runs which is a world better than they had been doing when he was out. Tonight they head to Cincinnati for their first series following inter-league play, and this is a ball park (Great American) where they will likely need the extra run scoring. The Phils will send righthander Kyle Kendrick to the mound in this one, and the only stat you need to know about him is that in his last three starts, Kendrick has put up an ugly 5.62 ERA and yet the Phillies are 3-0 in those games. The only way this could happen is if Kendrick was getting phenomenal run support, which he is. Take the 'over.'

MARC LAWRENCE
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves
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When the Braves send Tim Hudson to the mound against the Nationals Monday night in Atlanta they will do so knowing he is 4-1 in his last five home starts in this series. He is also 4-0 in his last four home team starts. With Steven Strasburg carrying a lot of weight, look look for the Braves to benefit and improve to 7-3 in Hudson's last 10 starts here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

Jim Feist
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
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Arizona is a big dog here, but they do have an ace on the mound and a very strong offense, fourth in the NL in runs scored. The Cardinals, by contrast, are 10th in runs. Starter Dan Haren has more strikeouts than innings pitched and rarely walks anyone. He is 4-0 all time against the Cardinals, too. Play the Diamondbacks.

EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -174
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The Arizona Diamondbacks starting pticher Dan Haren has not been pitching like the ace of the staff that he is supposed to be for the Diamondbacks. Haren has allowed four earned runs or more in seven of his first sixteen starts this season after doing so in just eight of his thirty three starts all of last season. If that trend continue and Haren allows four runs in this game that should be plenty for the Cardinals to pick up the win with their ace Chris Carpenter on the mound. Carpenter has very good numbers against the Diamondbacks in his career posting a 4-0 record with an ERA of just 2.36. I expect another solid effort from Carpenter here as he continues to roll along with a 9-1 record this season and an ERA of just 2.63. The Diamondbacks are only 8-20 in their last 28 trips to St. Louis and Arizona is 0-8 in Haren's last eight starts as an underdog. Play on St. Louis.

Gill Alexander
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ARI (+165) vs STL
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Haren is coming off a 7IP, 3ER, 6H, 8SO, 1BB performance v NYY. Just 3 starts ago, he went 8IP v these same Cardinals and allowed only 2ER on 6H w 9SO against 0BB. He has struck out 33 in a lifetime 29IP v StL. He has a 33-6 SO-BB ratio in June. Carpenter is coming off 8 innings of shutout ball v Tor last time on the mound in which he gave up just 3H. He has a 56-17 SO-BB ratio on the season. However, he has an average 4.15ERA v Arz in 2 starts this season. Advanced statistical analysis demonstrates huge value on Haren and the Dbacks in this one. Haren has a 4.04FIP and 3.46xFIP (11th best in MLB). His .342 BABIP is the 7th highest in baseball, telling us that we'll see our share of stellar performances from the Dbacks ace moving forward. Carpenter has a 3.72FIP and a 3.59xFIP, but a .279BABIP, which means that Carpenter may be somewhat more human than his performances to date would have us believe. I'm not sure that Haren, who provides a legit 9th bat to any lineup, should ever get this kind of return. At +165, this ballgame absolutely represents an opportunity on Arizona. Let's not shy away.

Tony George
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SFG (-120) LOS
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LA off a brutal and emotional series against the Yankees, and I like Zito at home for the Giants in this one, with a stellar bullpen to catch LA in a tough scheduling spot. Free Play on San Fran Monday Night.

DUNKEL INDEX
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Colorado at San Diego
The Padres look to build on their 8-2 record in Kevin Correia's last 10 starts as a home underdog from +110 to +150. San Diego is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+140)
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Game 901-902: NY Mets at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 14.936; Florida (Nolasco) 15.361
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+100); Under

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.727; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.677
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Over
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Game 905-906: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 13.650; Atlanta (Hudson) 14.844
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Over

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.130; Cubs (Wells) 15.360
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-210); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-210); N/A
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Game 909-910: Houston at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 15.005; Milwaukee (Parra) 16.983
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-185); Over

Game 911-912: Arizona at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 14.643; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.431
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Under
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Game 913-914: Colorado at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 15.115; San Diego (Correia) 16.253
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-160); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+140); Under

Game 915-916: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.170; San Francisco (Zito) 15.597
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Under
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Game 917-918: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 14.642; Cleveland (Westbrook) 13.861
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-160); Under

Game 919-920: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 15.648; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.211
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+140); Over
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Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.899; Kansas City (Lerew) 15.221
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Over

Hollywood Sports
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Nationals at Braves
Prediction: Over
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Sure, Steven Strasburg has been sensational -- but lets keep in mind that he has only made one start on the road in the major leagues where he allowed only one run but walked five batters in 5 1/3 innings of work in Cleveland against the Indians. The Strasburg hype has helped produce a super low Total of either 7 or even 6.5 for this game. As a pure value play, the Over presents a solid situation with a rookie starter making only his second start in a hostile environment. Furthermore, given the pitch count limits that will be imposed on Strasburg, how many innings will the Nationals' bullpen -- with their 4.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road -- have to log in tonight? It is likely that this bullpen will pitch at least a third of the game for Washington.
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Additionally, both Strasburg and the Braves' Tim Hudson share a deeper sabermetric statistic that is cause for concern relative to their very high perceived value: Batting Average for ground balls Put Into Play (GB BABIP) The baseline BABIP sabermetric is determined by this formula: (Hits - Homeruns)/(At-bats - Homeruns - strikeouts + sacrifice flies). The assumption behind the application of this sabermetric is that while pitchers control their strikeouts, walks and HRs allowed, it is defense and luck (and, we argue the skill of the batter when it comes to producing line-drives) that control what happens to the balls that hitters put into play. We look specifically at ground-ball BABIPs because defense and luck play the predominant role in which balls get through the infield. By comparing a pitcher's specific GB BABIP to his team's overall GB BABIP, we seek to neutralize the quality of the defense to identify (luck) discrepancies that deviate from the expected norm. This luck dynamic helps us to predict future pitching performances. Over the long run, pitchers with low GB BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high GB BABIPs are expected to see this number lower. Strasburg and Hudson have GB BABIPs of .190 and .193 respectively -- as compared to the Nationals' teams GB BABIP of .213 and the Braves' GB BABIP of .218. This suggests that while both these pitchers are good, they have actually been a bit lucky regarding where the groundballs he is allowing in play are actually going. As their GB BABIPs move up towards the their team's mean, they will be surrendering more base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it helps expose a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starters Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like GB BABIP, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which helps produce a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future. Take the Over while listing both of these pitchers.

Info Plays

3* on Arizona Diamondbacks +165

Reasons the D-Backs win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (ST LOUIS) - average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. This is a 31-20 ML System hitting 60.8% since 1997 and gaining +37.8 units.
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2.) Dan Haren has posted a 3.92 ERA over his last 3 starts which came against the Cardinals, Red Sox and Yankees which is no small feat. He allowed just 2 earned runs and 6 base runners in 8 innings of a 7-2 win over the Cardinals on June 12th. Chris Carpenter allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 6 innings of a 5-7 loss to Arizona on June 13th the following day. Haren is a perfect 4-0 with a 3.72 ERA in four lifetime starts vs. St. Louis. Bet Arizona on the road.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -113
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It's going to be very difficult for the Dodgers to get up for tonight's game after such a heartbreaking defeat to the Yankees last night. That loss marked the Dodgers' 8th in their last 10 games, and now they head out on the road where they have lost 6 of their last 7. Billingsley will likely show some rust tonight as he has not started since June 11. He was 0-2 with an ERA of 6.41 in three starts prior to going on the DL with a strained groin. The Giants have been a strong home club all season. They enter tonight's contest having won 15 of their last 21 home games. Zito figures to give them an excellent chance to win when you consider that he is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.82 at home this year. It is also worth noting that the Dodgers are 5-11 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter. LA has struggled to produce power numbers this season, and San Francisco is 11-1 in home games vs. terrible power teams averaging 0.75 or less home runs per game over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the Giants tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles +1.12 over SAN FRANCISCO
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Very tough loss for the Dodgers last night when they blew a 4-run ninth inning lead against the Yanks but don’t expect them to be hanging their heads. A series against the hated Giants is always good for a little extra motivation and the Dodgers are the far superior team that is simply in a bit of a funk. Chad Billingsley comes off the DL after missing two weeks with a strained groin. He had turned his season around in May and was cruising until his last start vs. the Angels, during which he suffered the injury. The first start after an injury is always a mystery, but a 2.78 ERA on the road tips the scales in his favor and there’s no way the Dodgers would go to him if he wasn’t ready. Besides, the Giants are not exactly going good either. They’ve lost four of five, which includes a series loss to the Astros. One of those games against Houston, Barry Zito failed to get out of the fifth inning after allowing seven hits and five earned runs in four innings pitched. Zito has been the beneficiary of some weak opposition recently, with HOU, SD and OAK comprising five of his last nine starts. A rising FB% (53% in June) and hr/9 have made him an E-ticket (5.08 ERA) since mid-May and the fact that he’s a –1.19 favorite over the Dodgers and Billingsley is ludicrous. Play: Los Angeles +1.12 (Risking 2 units).

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Pittsburgh +1.73 over CHICAGO
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It’s not easy to pull the trigger on the stumbling Pirates but the price makes it a little easier and so does the opposition. The Cubbies are a garbage team that should not be favored over anyone by this much when Randy Wells is on the hill. Wells hasn’t won a game since April and now you’re going to lay better than 9-5 with him? Since that last win on April 30, Wells has gone 0-6 with a 6.24 ERA. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in six innings of an 8-1 defeat to Seattle on Wednesday and that game was in Seattle. At home, Wells has a BAA of .315 and in June his BAA is .353 and in two starts vs the Pirates this year his ERA is 7.71. Yeah, the Pirates have lost something like 50 in a row on the road but they’ve beaten the Cubbies in seven of nine games this year and Paul Maholm has won two of those and posted a 3.00 ERA. The Pirates are not as bad as its record indicates and despite getting ripped apart, they’re at least getting some hits but have failed to string them together. Even in that 3-2 loss yesterday they outhit the A’s 8-3. Anyway, this one is all about taking back a stupid tag against Wells and the Cubbies and given this opportunity 100 times, this bet would be made 100 times. Big overlay. Play: Pittsburgh +1.73 (Risking 2 units).

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Houston +1.65 over MILWAUKEE
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The Brewers remain warm with six wins in seven games but the offense started to sputter again vs Seattle and this is not a team to be trusted laying heavy juice. Bud Norris (71 BPV) is coming off the DL to make his first start since going down with biceps tendinitis on May 24. His stats are not good but don’t put too much into that since Norris was likely pitching hurt. Instead, let’s focus on a guy that struck out 54 batters in 43 innings. Also note that Norris pitched very well in his rehab assignment at Triple-A Round Rock and is very ready to resume play. Norris possesses wicked stuff and has had great success against these same Brewers in two starts last season, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.45 ERA, while striking out 15 in 11 IP. Manny Parra has pitched extremely well in June (23 IP, 3.52 ERA) and that has to be acknowledged. However, the current Astros have ripped him apart. In fact, current Astro batters are hitting a robust .361 off Parra with 30 hits in 83 career AB’s against him. Houston is a much-better team vs lefties, as its .500 record vs southpaws will attest to and they’re certainly way undervalued here. Play: Houston +1.65 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell
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FLA (+100) vs NYM
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We feel that the Florida Marlins have some fight in them tonight vs. a NY Met's ballclub in Hiram Bithorn stadium. The Marlins @ a pickem vs the NY Met's phenom knuckle baller. He is 6-0 and sports a 2 something ERA. This hurler Dickey @ 6-0 makes us play those dangerous Marlins tonight as this "line" smells boys. "THE METS ARE WAY TOO CHEAP HERE BOYS, COME ON". The Marlins Rickey Nolasco 6-6 and a 4.92 ERA is no push over as he can bring it. Nolasco has a smooth 2-0 mark vs these Met's the last 5 battles. This play is yet another HUGE gut play by our camp!

BEN BURNS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
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This looks like a tough spot for the Dodgers. Last night, playing on National TV, they blew a big 9th inning lead, en route to losing 8-6 in extra innings. That figures to be a tough pill to swallow. Not only were they leading 5-0 entering the 6th inning, but they were also up 6-2, entering the 9th inning.

I like Billingsley and he's admittedly pitched very well on the road. That said, he also got absolutely rocked in his last start. In 5 2/3 innings, he gave up seven runs. That gives him a 0-2 record with a dismal 6.41 ERA for his last three starts.
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Zito wasn't at his best last time out either. However, before that he had delivered back to back quality starts. He's also been exceptional at home all season. He's made eight starts here and has allowed three earned runs or less in ALL eight of them. He's also gone a minimum of six complete innings in seven of those starts, averaging 6.8 innings here for the season. Over that 8-game stretch, he's gone 5-1 (Giants are 6-2, +3.8) with a stellar 2.82 ERA.
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The Giants are 25-14 (+6.2) at home this season. That includes a 5-3 record when playing a home game with a line in the +100 to -125 range. On the other hand, the Dodgers are a money-burning 3-8 (-4.8) when playing on the road with a line in the +100 to +125 range. Consider San Francisco