DAVID MALINSKY
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
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We did not expect the markets to be against Chris Carpenter here, but with this price now dropping into the 160’s it is time for us to get in play.
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We cashed a 6* ticket behind Carpenter in his last outing, eight shutout innings (only three hits) at Toronto, as he brought a special focus to the place where he had spent the first four seasons of his Major League career. Now we get another major focus point from him tonight, and when a guy that has gone 21-2/2.37 since July 1st of LY has such a target it calls for something special. The Cardinals lost 7-5 at Arizona three starts back for Carpenter, a game in which he did not get a decision, but was far off of his game, issuing a season high of five W’s, and reaching a season high of 19.5 PPI. There is absolutely nothing about this matchup that calls for that, and if anything he should be an ideal pitcher to back into an undisciplined and free-swinging lineup. Even with that rocky outing at Phoenix on June 13th it has been a 1-0/2.25 over 24 frames vs. the Diamondbacks the last two seasons. We will call for him to be dominant here, and yesterday’s ugly blowout at Kansas City brings all key bullpen arms rested and ready. With a monster of a gap between these bullpens (2.90 vs. 6.03), that is significant.
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Danny Haren sports the same good control numbers that we usually expect from him, but this season the opposition is making much better contact. His ERA jump from 3.14 to 4.65 is a direct result of a major climb in Hits per 9 (from 7.53 to 10.05) and HR’s per 9 (from 1.06 to 1.56), and while he gave the appearance of working pretty well against the Yankees in his last outing (three runs in 7 IP), note how tenuous that was – he did not register a single ground ball out in that game, while getting 12 in the air. Two starts back it was seven in the air vs. only four on the ground at Boston, and if you keep working that way, you are flirting with disaster.
Frank Jordan
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New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Play: New York Mets
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RA Dickey for the Mets has been a huge blessing as he is 6-0 with an era under 2.40. The Marlins counter with 6-6 Ricky Nolasco who has an era nearly 5. As these two clubs going in opposite directions meet in Puerto Rico look for the Mets to keep rolling along and once again win behind RA.
Rob Vinciletti
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Nationals vs. Braves
Play: Under 7
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While the posted total is somewhat low here, its is warranted. This game sets up to be a classic pitching duel with Washington Rookie phenom S. Strasburg vs Atlanta righty T. Hudson. Both pitchers have been dominant of late. Strasburg has bee fantastic in his first 4 starts in the big leagues with a 1.78 era, allowing just 5 runs in 25 innings. He has also domianted hitters, and has had high strikeout totals. T. Hudson has been superb as well with a 1.87 home era, and he has allowed just 3 runs in 14 innings vs the Nationals over his last 2 starts. Atlanta has hit just .236 in division play failing to score much while averaging just 3.5 runs. Washington was just swept in Baltimore and is hitting just .230 the past week, with only 2.9 runs per game. For tehcnical purposes we want to play the under for home favorites of less than -140 off a 5 or more run home favored loss, scoring 4 or less runs vs an opponent off a road dog loss also scoring 4 or less runs. These home teams have played under 74% of the time the past few years. Look for a low scoring game tonight.
MATT FARGO
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies took two of three at home over the weekend against the Blue Jays even though they were tagged as the road team. After a very rough stretch, they are starting to come together once again, going 8-3 over their last 11 games including four of five on the road to move two games over .500 away from home. Cincinnati has had a good run as well with wins in five of six games to reclaim first place in the National League Central by a half-game over St. Louis. The Phillies send Kyle Kendrick to the mound and he has been anything but consistent this season. The good thing is that the bad starts are not contagious and he is coming off one of those starts last time out. He allowed four runs against the Indians but he has bounced back well off similar outings as in the last four times he has allowed four runs or more, he has come back with a quality start in each of his next starts. He has a solid 0.96 ERA over those four starts with the Phillies winning all four of those games. Kendrick has a 3.20 ERA in seven road starts this season. He is opposed by Johnny Cueto who is coming off a seven-inning shutout over Oakland in his last start. That was his first quality outing over his last five starts but this is a test. Four of his last five quality performances came against Pittsburgh twice, Cleveland and the aforementioned A’s and those are some bad offenses. Cueto faced the Phillies twice last season and it was not pretty as he posted a 15.26 ERA and lost both games. The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game while the Phillies are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Cincinnati. The Phillies also fall into a solid underdog situation. Play against National League home favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher who has a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.35 on the season in June games. This situation is 70-49 (58.8 percent over the last five seasons but is much better than that based on it being an underdog spot. 3* Philadelphia Phillies
Nelly
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Detroit + over Minnesota
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There are clear problems for the Twins developing with a 3-7 record in the last ten games. Minnesota is still clinging to a narrow lead in the AL Central but the Tigers will have a great opportunity to catch the Twins while they are down. In the last ten games the Tigers are batting .353 against left-handed pitching and this should be a match-up that the Tigers can excel in. The Twins are just 3-6 in the last nine starts for Francisco Liriano and he has not been as sharp as his overall numbers suggest. Liriano was dominant in April but he has allowed three or more runs in six of his last nine outings and he is also getting very little run support. Minnesota has averaged just 2.5 runs scored per game in Liriano's last nine starts and he has not delivered significantly stronger results at home. Jeremy Bonderman has been sharp in recent outing, allowing just eight runs in his last three starts while lasting at least six innings in six of his last seven outings. Bonderman has a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and the Tigers feature an excellent bullpen. The Tigers are 13-8 this season against left-handed pitching and given the recent struggles for Minnesota this is a great price to back the underdog in a key division game.
Insider Angles
Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals should face his biggest test since being called up to the Major Leagues when he faces the Atlanta Braves in Atlanta on Monday, but we feel he will be up for the task. Unfortunately, we also expect Tim Hudson to have his way with the Nats, making the Under the logical call here.
Strasburg was possibly the most highly touted rookie pitcher ever when he was called up, and as impossible as it seemed at the time, he has actually lived up to all the hype! He has set a Major League record for the most strikeouts in the first four starts of a career with 41, and he has just five walks, which came all in one game in Cleveland where Strasburg kept complaining about the mound condition following some rain.
He has a 1.78 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 25.1 innings, and after allowing two runs on just four hits with 14 strikeouts in his debut, Strasburg has allowed exactly one run in each of his last three starts. He could obviously be 4-0 instead of his current 2-1 if the Nationals had any offense, and he does not figure to get much run support here either.
That is because Hudson is having a fine year himself, currently sitting at 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts covering 99.1 innings. When Hudson allowed four runs vs. the red-hot White Sox in his last start, it marked the first time all year that he allowed more than three earned runs in a game! In fact, he has allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts, including his first outing this year vs. these Nationals, where he allowed two runs in seven innings.
He now gets to face a Washington lineup that is batting a putrid .211 vs. right-hanged pitching over their last 10 games, and this fact combined with Strasburg as Hudson’s mound opponent should results in a low scoring affair.
Pick: Nationals/Braves Under 7
Scott Spreitzer
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Phillies at Reds
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Cincy is an offensive park, a place that gives up a lot of homers. Two talented offensive teams come to town. Philadelphia was in a perplexing offensive slump for a month, but they've busted it of it of late. Kyle Kendrick has average stuff (5.63 ERA his last three starts) and faces a Reds offense that is been strong all season. Starter Johnny Cueto is 0-2 with a 15.26 ERA all time against the Phillies. Look for an offensive show, play the
Phillies/Reds Over the total.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
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When the Braves send Tim Hudson to the mound against the Nationals Monday night in Atlanta they will do so knowing he is 4-1 in his last five home starts in this series. He is also 4-0 in his last four home team starts. With Steven Strasburg carrying a lot of weight, look look for the Braves to benefit and improve to 7-3 in Hudson's last 10 starts here tonight. We recommend a play on Atlanta.
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Play on: Atlanta Braves
John Ryan
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Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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3* graded play on the Braves as they take on Washington set to start at 7:05 EST and will be seen on ESPN2. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Braves with Hudson will defeat the Nationals and rookie sensation Strasburg. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 89-31 for 74.2% winners since 1997. Play on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season facing an opponent with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season. Braves are a solid 24-7 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. Nats are 1-14 (-11.8 Units) against the money line with a well rested bullpen that threw 3 innings or less over last 2 games over the last 2 seasons; 1-11 (-10.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Take the Braves.
Rocketman
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Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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Washington is 33-43 overall this year while Atlanta comes in with a 44-32 overall record on the season. Washington is 1-8 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Washington is 25-52 last 3 years and 7-17 this year in June. Washington is 57-131 last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 8-1 this year at home when the line is -100 to -125. Atlanta is 26-8 at home this year. Washington has lost 4 games in a row. Atlanta bullpen has a 3.39 ERA overall and a 3.08 ERA at home this year. Tim Hudson is 7-3 with a 2.54 ERA overall this year, 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA at home and has a 2.86 ERA his last 3 starts. Hudson is 8-1 with a 1.62 ERA overall vs Washington since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!
TEDDY COVERS
Rockies @ Padres
PICK: Over 6.5
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Padres starter Kevin Correia and a posted total of ‘6’ are completely incongruous. Correia’s last five starts have produced a total of 59 runs, seven or more in every contest. He’s allowed 14 runs in 16 innings of work in his last three home starts – even pitcher friendly Petco Field hasn’t helped his current form. The Rockies have handed Correia an ERA over 5.00 in five starts against him over the past two seasons.
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Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez has been human in recent starts, finally coming back to earth after a truly phenomenal first two months of the season. He’s allowed 29 hits and 12 runs in four June starts after entering the month with an 0.78 ERA. Let’s not forget that despite Jimenez’s dominance, he’s still pitched more than his fair share of Overs; a very reasonable 5-6 to the Over in his last eleven trips to the hill. 2* Take the Over.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds are 10-5 this season when Johnny Cueto starts and his last two starts have been two of his best of the season, allowing just eleven hits and one run over nearly 13 innings of work. Cueto has not allowed a home run in any of his last four starts and he owns a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the season. This is the first meeting of the season between these teams and while Cueto was hit hard the last time he faced the Phillies, his last home start against Philadelphia was a strong outing.
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Philadelphia has won the last three starts made by Kyle Kendrick but he has not pitched that well, allowing 12 runs in 16 innings of work. Philadelphia is 3-5 in road games that Kendrick has pitched in and he has only struck out twelve more batters than he has walked for the season. Philadelphia’s bullpen has decent numbers for the season but in the last ten games the team has a relief ERA of 4.26 while the depth is hurting with four relievers placed on the DL so far in the month of June.
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For the season the Reds are batting .287 in home games while going 25-18 on the season. Philadelphia is basically a .500 team on the road for the year, benefiting from the ‘road’ series last weekend played in Philadelphia. While regarded as a great offensive team the Phillies have hit just .255 in road games. For the season Philadelphia is just 7-10 in the game following an effort of eight or more runs and after an 11-2 win on Sunday the Phillies could struggle. That game came in Philadelphia and came against a left-handed pitcher, facing a change of venue and a tough right-hander is likely to break the rhythm.
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The Reds have won five of the last six games and Cincinnati has gone ten straight games without allowing more than five runs in a game. Over the last 17 home games Cincinnati has averaged nearly 5.9 runs per game on offense and Cueto has not taken a home loss in over two months. The Reds are 9-2 in his last eleven starts, scoring 5.9 runs per game in the games he has started in that span. Playing as just a slight favorite against an inconsistent Phillies team playing without two regular starters should provide a great opportunity for the Reds.
Jack Jones
Colorado Rockies -142
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I'll back the National League's best starter in Ubaldo Jimenez at this price Monday. Jimenez is 13-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 1.037 WHIP this season with 95 strikeouts in 107 innings. He has been at his best on the road, going 8-1 with a miniscule 0.80 ERA and 0.921 WHIP. Jimenez has allowed just 38 hits and 1 home run in 67.1 innings away from home.
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Kevin Correia is 5-5 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.447 WHIP this season for San Diego, and he has clearly been their most inconsistent starter. Correia is 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA in his career vs. Colorado. Meanwhile, Jimenez is 6-3 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 10 career starts vs. San Diego. The Rockies are 14-1 in Jimenez's 15 starts this year. They are a perfect 10-0 in Jimenez's 10 starts following a team loss this season. Jimenez is 18-1 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. At most places, the Rockies are -150 or more, but at two books at BetJamaica and 5Dimes Colorado -142 as I post this free pick. Roll with the Rockies Monday behind Jimenez.
Freddy Wills
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Can't help but to back Jimenez the #1 money maker of all MLB pitchers here. He had 6 ER in his last start and I believe he bounces back huge against a Padres line up and in a ball park that favors his pitching style. He's got 20 K's in 2 game starts over 13 IP against the Padres and I think he dominates today. He goes up against Kevin Correia who is 3-3 at home with a 4.53 ERA. JImenez 8-1 with a 0.80 ERA on the road this year.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -142
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I'm expecting a gem out of Jimenez tonight following his worst outing of the season. The Red Sox got to him for 6 runs, but the Rockies still won the game. Colorado has a ton of confidence whenever Jimenez steps to the hill, and that should come as no surprise when you consider that he is 13-1 with an ERA of 1.60. He'll be pitching in a very pitcher-friendly park tonight and he is 8-1 with an ERA of just 0.80 on the road. It is also worth mentioning that he is a perfect 6-0 (7-0 on the money line) in his night starts this season. Jimenez has also had a lot of success against San Diego, winning his last 4 starts against them while not allowing more than 3 runs in any of those outings. Meanwhile, the Padres have lost 3 of Correia's last 4 starts against the Rockies and 5 of his last 6 starts against the NL West. Take the Rockies with Jimenez on the hill tonight.