Black Widow
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1* on Los Angeles Dodgers +105
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Dodgers come into this series with San Francisco very hungry for a win after the nature of the way the lost last night, blowing a 4-run lead in the 9th to the Yankees only to lose in extra innings. Starter Chad Billingsley comes in fresh after going on the 15-Day DL, and he should mow down this Giants line-up. Billingsley is 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA on the road in 6 starts this season. Billingsley is also 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 10 career starts against San Francisco as well. Los Angeles is 18-5 (+13.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Giants and you can chalk up another in the win column for L.A. in this one. Take the Dodgers on the Money Line.
Dave Price
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -131
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Phillies have finally started hitting the ball again and wins have followed, but I have to give the edge to the Reds at home this evening. The Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 3-8 in Kendrick's last 11 road starts. The Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 9-2 in Cueto's last 11 starts and 8-0 in his last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Cueto remembers his last start against Philly well. He was absolutely shelled, giving up 9 runs in just 2/3 of an inning. That loss will have him extremely motivated and focused on the task at hand tonight. Take the Reds.
Chris Jordan
New York (-115) at FLORIDA, at San Juan PR
The Marlins have lost four straight and now take on red-hot R.A. Dickey, who is 6-0 with a 2.33 ERA on the year. And tonight, though this one is being played in South Beach, I like my chances with the knuckleballer, who comes in after limiting the Tigers to four hits in eight innings of a 5-0 win last Wednesday.
Dickey has already faced the Marlins once this season, giving up three runs over 6-1/3 innings in a 4-3 win over Florida on June 4. And if he can pitch his Mets to another victory, they have a solid shot at moving into first place. They’re boys from Queens are half-game back of the Braves, who are hosting the Nationals and phenom Stephen Strasburg tonight on national television.
Coming into this series on a 6-1 run overall, make note the Mets began this streak with a three-game sweep of these same Marlins. The Mets are on additional winning runs of 7-2 on the road, 7-0 versus the National League East, 8-0 against losing teams, 6-1 when visiting righties, 11-3 overall against right-handers and 6-0 when Dickey toes the slab.
On the flip side, the Marlins on losing slides of 2-8 against the East, 2-5 after a loss, 1-4 against winning teams, 1-6 when hosting a right-hander, and 0-6 when Nolasco throws against a winning team.
The Mets are in quadruple revenge after four straight losses in Florida; tonight they get it.
4♦ NEW YORK
Derek Mancini
NY Mets at FLORIDA (-110)
Back-to-back Freebie winners with the Angels Saturday and Brewers Sunday! With interleague now over, I'm looking at tonight's NL East match up between the Mets and Marlins.
A good majority of bettors are all over the Mets in this contest, and I just don't see it. Of course, if you take a quick look at the pitching match up, you'd be inclined to bet Dickey, who's 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his L3 starts. But wait a second... Did you ever stop to ask why the price on Dickey is about the same as Nolasco?
The Marlins righty has posted a 6.46 ERA over his L3 starts, and yet the price tells us a different story. What gives? I'll tell you what gives - did you take the time analyze his recent starts? Over his L10 starts, five have been at home, and five on the road, and there's been a major difference based on the venue. Four of his last five home starts have been quality efforts, including a May 16th win over the Mets (2 earned over 6 innings). If you only look at his L3 starts (2 of which were on the road), then you mistakenly believe he's struggling. When in reality, Nolasco is pitching very well at home.
Forgetting about the pitching match up for a second, bettors are convinced the Marlins are a team to fade right now. But there's nothing shameful about getting swept by a team as good as the Padres (the N.L.'s best road team) in 3 close games. Florida is still batting .273 against righties over their L10, and averaging 5.0 runs per game against them this season. They also saw Dickey earlier this month, and should have a good read on the unorthodox knuckler this time around. Florida (Nolasco) over the NY Mets (Dickey) Monday.
2♦ FLORIDA
Bobby Maxwell
Detroit at MINNESOTA (-155)
My FREE play run is at 114-98-3 with a winner coming int today on the Twins as I pay the price to go with the Twins at home over the Tigers.
The Twins are glad to be home after that nine-game road trip through the National League. They are 23-13 in their new ballpark so far this season and I’m siding with them as tonight’s starter Francisco Liriano (6-5, 3.11 ERA) to take down the Tigers.
Liriano has a 2.30 ERA on the home field and he hasn’t allowed an opponent more than three runs in six straight outings. His last home outing was June 17 against the Rockies when he allowed three runs in seven innings but the offense failed to show and the Twins lost 5-1. This guy has owned the Tigers in his career and has already shut them down once this season. Back on April 27, Liriano blanked Detroit in the Motor City for eight innings, allowing just four hits while striking out 10 and walking one and leading Minnesota to a 2-0 victory.
In eight career starts against the Tigers, he is 4-1 with a 3.94 ERA.
The Tigers are sending Jeremy Bonderman to the hill for this one, and he’s been a disaster on the highway, going 1-3 with a 6.02 ERA. On Wednesday, Bonderman gave up four runs in six innings to the Mets, losing 5-0. His roadie prior to that came on June 6 when the Royals lit him up for seven runs in 5.2 innings of a 7-2 win over the Tigers. He hasn’t seen the Twins since the 2008 season, and in that start he gave up seven runs in 6.1 innings.
Detroit is just 2-6 when Bonderman starts in Minnesota, 2-6 in the last eight meetings with the Twins overall and Minnesota has dominated at home, going 65-28 in the last 93 clashes.
I’ll pay the price and play Minnesota behind Liriano tonight.
5♦ MINNESOTA
Chuck O'Brien
Colorado at SAN DIEGO (+135)
Monday’s complimentary selection comes from San Diego, as I’ll take the red-hot Padres as a significant home underdog against Colorado.
Obviously, the Padres are a home pup for one reason only: Ubaldo Jimenez is starting for the Rockies. And no doubt Jimenez has had his way with San Diego twice this season, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 20 strikeouts against five walks. However, Jimenez proved to be mortal five days ago against the Red Sox, giving up season-highs of six runs on 10 hits in a season-low 5 2/3 innings. Although his offense bailed him out and rallied for an 8-6 victory, you have to wonder if Jimenez – whom you knew wouldn’t continue at his incredible pace all season – may have hit a “dead arm” period.
More than anything, though, I can’t pass up San Diego at this kind of a plus price. While the betting public – and baseball fans as a whole – continue to disbelieve in the Padres, all they do is continue to win. They just swept a three-game series at Florida – and once again, pitching was key as they allowed just three combined runs – and they’ve won seven of nine to improve to 45-30 on the season. That’s the best record in the National League. Not only that, but San Diego has been far and away the most profitable team in betting circles. If you wagered $100 on every single Padres game this year, you’d be up nearly $2,000.
As for Padres starter Kevin Correia, I’m not the biggest fan in the world, but he’s a serviceable pitcher who tends to keep his team in games (to wit: San Diego is 5-1 in his last six starts).
That said, I’m not going to deny that Colorado has a big starting pitching edge here. However, the Padres have been shocking the world for three solid months now, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them do it again tonight. And for a team that’s 16-22 on the road to be laying this kind of price against an opponent that’s 23-16 at home, it’s a no-brainer to take the value with the home ‘dog.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Karl Garrett
Philadelphia (+130) at CINCINNATI
Looks to the G-Man like the Phillies have a little something brewing right now, as Philadelphia enters Monday's action with wins in 5 of their last 6, and 7 of 10 overall.
Cincinnati continues to impress, and while they have their 5 game winning streak snapped yesterday, they are still 42-34 for the season.
G-Man says to go with the Phils tonight though, as Philadelphia is 10-5 their last 15 meetings against the Reds, and Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick has been top-shelf on the road this year.
Kendrick may only be 2-2 with a 6.62 ERA at home this season, but he is 2-0 with a 3.35 ERA away from home, and his last road start was a shutdown effort against the Yankees in which he worked 7 innings and allowed just 1 run to score in notching the victory.
John Cueto goes for the Reds, and Cueto is 0-2 the last 2 times he has faced the Phillies, allowing 13 runs in just 8 frames of work.
G-Man going with the underdog Phillies in this spot tonight.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Jeff Benton
Rare free-play loser on the Dodgers-Yankees UNDER the total on Sunday night. Still, I’ve hit 9 of 13 freebies, and in addition to that, I’m on a 95-63-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Monday, well head to San Juan, Puerto Rico, and play the Mets over the Marlins in a pick-em contest.
The only thing that’s keeping me from releasing New York as a premium selection is this venue switch. I don’t know enough about the ballpark and the travel circumstances to feel completely comfortable using this is as a service play. Other than that, though, how can you not love the Mets?
New York just took two of three at home against a very good Twins club, and it has won 23 of 32 overall, seven of nine on the road, seven straight N.L. East contests, seven straight series openers, eight straight against losing teams and seven straight on the road against losing teams. And make no mistake, Florida is a losing ballclub. After getting swept at home by San Diego over the weekend – and scoring a total of three runs – the Marlins have dropped four in a row to fall five games under .500 on the season.
The Fish are also in funks of 2-8 in divisional contests, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 versus right-handed starters. Tonight, the right-hander going for New York is R.A. Dickey. All he’s done is go 6-0 with a 2.33 ERA in seven starts, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last three outings (two of which were road victories). On June 4, Dickey led the Mets to a 4-3 home win over Florida, allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings, which kicked off an eventual three-game series sweep.
While Dickey is rolling for New York, Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco is spiraling downward for the Marlins. Since May 21, he’s made seven starts and allowed 30 runs (28 earned) in 37 innings (6.81 ERA), and the Marlins are 2-5 over this span, including a 7-6 loss in New York. Florida has also lost six straight games when Nolasco has faced a team with a winning record.
6♦ N.Y. METS
Stephen Nover
I am 34-14-1 on my last 49 free selections after cashing with the Diamondbacks on the run line Sunday.
The Chicago White Sox are 15-2 in their last 17 games. They are facing a Royals squad that has the third-worst home mark in the American League.
Until breaking out for 10 runs against St. Louis on Sunday, the Royals were averaging 3.1 runs in their last eight games.
The Royals face Mark Buehrle, who has a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts, all victories. Chicago has won five of Buehrle's last six starts.
Career-wise, Buehrle is 20-10 with a 3.64 ERA against the Royals. The White Sox are 7-3 in Buehrle's last 10 road starts against the Royals.
Buehrle will face right-hander Anthony Lerew, who is slated to make his third start since being called up from Triple-A Omaha in place of injured Luke Hochevar.
Lerew is winless in seven career starts. He hasn't gotten out of the fifth inning during more than half of those starts. The White Sox have won in their last seven road games when facing a right-hander. They are 14-2 in their last 16 games overall when going against a right-hander.
2♦ CHICAGO
Scott Delaney
Toronto at Cleveland
Let’s face it, the Indians might as well start planning for 2011. Scrap this season and move on. They have one of the worst records in baseball, they’ve lost four straight at home, they’re 13-1/2 games out of first place and they come in after completing a 5-13 stretch against the National League for a second consecutive season.
Cleveland, which has the third-worst record in baseball and is on pace to lose 100 games, will struggle tonight against Toronto’s Ricky Romero. The southpaw is in after a stellar no-decision effort, which saw him toss eight scoreless innings of a 1-0 loss against St. Louis. Since May 25 he is 2-1 with a stingy 1.75 ERA in five starts. And he should have confidence in this one, as he’s won both of his career starts against the Indians, including a May 4 outing at Progressive Field.
I know he has a rather high ERA against the Tribe, but he’s pitching so much better right now. And once his teammates get to Cleveland starter Jake Westbrook, I believe he’ll settle in and fire another gem. Westbrook has a sky-high 6.38 ERA in his last four outings and will be taking on a Blue Jays team that swept a three-game series at Progressive Field in May, and has won six of the last seven meetings there. And keep in mind he’ll be facing the league leader in home runs.
The Jays are on winning runs of 4-1 as a road favorite, 25-8 as the chalk overall, 6-1 when Romero takes on teams out of the American League Central, 5-1 when he’s installed as the chalk and 5-2 when throwing on four days of rest.
On the other hand, the Indians are on additional slides of 5-16 on Mondays, 5-16 when hosting a southpaw, 13-43 against winning teams, 5-13 when Westbrook is up, 5-16 when he’s installed as the underdog, 1-8 when the takes on a winning team – including a 0-5 skid at home.
All Jays here.
2♦ TORONTO
Craig Davis
Today I'm coming back with another solid play in the National League that I've had my eye on for a few days. I fully plan on getting yesterday's loss back... and then some. It's time for you to jump on board the "money train" to make fully sure you build your bankroll for football season.
Today's free play is on the Nationals/Braves game UNDER the total. Two phenomenal pitchers going toe-to-toe in Atlanta where runs will definitely be at a premium.
One one hand we have Steven Strasburg who, although he's very young and raw, he's still been as good as advertised and more. In his last outing he broke a long-standing MLB record with 41 strikeouts in his first four starts despite dropping a 1-0 decision to the Royals. He's 2-1 for the season with a 1.78 ERA and he's pitched rather well in all four starts. Atlanta has yet to see Strasburg and I can't imagine their offense is going to like what they see the first few times through the lineup.
As for Atlanta, they get a team that has dropped 10 of its last 12 and has only scored 34 runs during that span. Tim Hudson (7-3, 2.54) counters for the Braves at home tonight where he's 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA. Hudson has won his last seven starts against the Nats and is 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA in 14 total contests against Washington. He surrendered five hits and two runs over 7 innings in his last start vs. Washington... a 3-2 Braves win.
3♦ Nationals-Braves UNDER
Brett Atkins
Tonight's free winner comes from Puerto Rico as I go ahead and pay the price to play the red-hot Mets as they battle the Marlins in this N.L. East matchup from the island.
R.A. Dickey (6-0, 2.33 ERA) has enjoyed life since joining the Mets’ starting rotation. Wednesday, he completely shut down the Tigers, blanking them on four hits in a 5-0 home win.
In fact, six of Dickey's last seven opponents have scored three runs or less, including his last two road starts in Baltimore and Cleveland. The guy has been dealing since joining the rotation and he’ll deliver again tonight.
On the hill for the Marlins is Ricky Nolasco who is just 2-4 at home with a 5.31 ERA. Florida has lost five of his last seven starts and he’s given up at least three runs in each of his last seven against the Mets.
New York is 7-2 in its last nine road games and 7-0 against N.L. East rivals. Florida is just 2-6 when Nolasco pitches at home and 2-8 when he faces N.L. East teams. I’m going with New York and Dickey in this one.
3♦ N.Y. METS
Jay McNeil
Chicago at Kansas City
Going to lay the chalk with the White Sox, who are 15-2 in their last 17 games and come in to face a Royals team that has the third-worst home mark in the American League.
Prior to yesterday's 10-run outburst against the Cardinals, the Royals were averaging 3.1 runs in their last eight games. They won't have that kind of success against Mark Buehrle, who has a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts, all of which were wins.
Plus, Chicago has won five of Buehrle's last six starts.
2♦ CHICAGO
Joel Tyson
Free play winner on Sunday with the NY Yankees coming back for the win.
For Monday, I will go with the White Sox to get right back in the win column against the Royals.
Chicago is still on a postive 17-5 run their last 22 games, and starter Mark Buehrle comes into this assignment having won his last 3 starts while allowing just 4 runs to score in his last 20 innings of work.
Anthony Lerew is making just his third start, and he is 0-1 with 6 runs scored in 11 innings of work.
The Royals have lost 6 of their last 9, and they will be no match for the surging Sox.
Go with Chicago.
4♦ WHITE SOX