Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -129
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The Mets are really struggling right now. I went against them last night and I'll fade them again today as I don't expect them to be emotionally or physically recovered from getting swept at home by their Big Apple rivals. The Mets have dropped 8 of their last 12 overall and are only 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Sending Nieve to the hill has given them good opportunities to win lately, but I just don't see the Mets having the bats to get it done again tonight. Especially since Looper will be determined to pick up his first win for the month against his former team. The Brewers have won 15 of their last 20 series openers, but here's the clincher: plays against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL), with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season (NL) are 39-15 the last 5 seasons. We'll take this 72.2% system to the bank.
Scott Spreitzer
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Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
Play: Detroit Tigers
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I'm laying the price with the Tigers on Monday. We have a meeting of young pitchers with Rick Porcello of Detroit facing Brett Anderson of Oakland. Porcello’s been solid, with an ERA of 3.55, and a WHIP of 1.36. Anderson has struggled, posting a poor ERA of 5.74 and a high WHIP of 1.51 for the season. That's basically enough to put me on Detroit. But I’ve noticed that the Tigers are doing a great job monitoring Porcello’s pitch counts (he hasn’t broken 100 yet), while the A’s haven’t done the same with Anderson. In fact, Anderson set a season high in pitches thrown four starts ago and hasn’t been the same since! His ERA over his last three starts is 8.59, and his WHIP is a ridiculous 1.84. Porcello’s thriving under the guidance of Jim Leyland, and actually has an ERA of 2.52 his last 10 starts because they’re handling him with caution. Recent form is a SLAM DUNK for the Tigers on the mound. And, at the team level, we’re taking a surging division leader against a slumping A’s team that’s 5-13 its last 18 games. The Tigers minus the price is the play.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
282 - 184 run 60 % 34-16 run here 😮
Florida Marlins Monday
8)
Wunderdog
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Minnesota at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +125
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The Twins have not been good on the road this season, and with Nick Blackburn on the hill tonight for this one, those numbers get even worse. Blackburn has put up good numbers this season, entering this one with a 6-3 mark and 3.11 ERA. What doesn't show up in that record is the fact that the Twins are 3-6 on the season when he takes the mound on the road, and 8-20 for his career! Luke Hochover has not produced good numbers, but in his last four starts he has pitched three very good games, and in his last four starts has pitched to a 3.71 ERA. Hochover has been 5-1 starting after the Royals allowed two runs or less runs in their previous game. The Twins have also lost five of their last seven against the Royals. I'm going with the Royals in this one.
John Ryan
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Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Washington Nationals
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Washington Nationals as they face the Florida Marlins set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 46-36 making 54.8 units since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start; starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. What is most impressive is that this system is 10 games over 500 and the average play has been +197. This is analogous to playing Black Jack and getting paid $1.97 for every winning $1.00 hand. Certainly one of the best dog playing systems you will find so do yourself a favor and write it down, track it and continue winning more money with it as games qualify. Florida starter Nolasco has been quite impressive since coming off the DL in early June. He has thrown 100+ pitches in 3 of his last 4 starts so fatigue will begin to creep into his starts. Look for Washington to have offensive success and win this game. Take the Nationals.
Nelly
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Tampa Bay + over Toronto
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The Rays are a red hot team having won five in a row and seven of the last eight games. Tampa Bay just surpassed Toronto in the standings and despite a very marginal start to the season Tampa Bay is just two games out of the Wild Card lead and only five games behind Boston who currently has the AL East lead and the best record in the AL. Tampa Bay went 13-5 in interleague play and the Rays have outscored opponents by 87 runs on the year, featuring by a significant margin the highest scoring offense in all of baseball. Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the game but he is coming off the DL and it is hard to expect Halladay to be at full strength. With Halladay on the mound the Blue Jays are significant favorites for the first meeting between these teams in 2009 but Tampa Bay has been the much better team of late. The Rays are batting .288 over the last ten games compared to .262 for Toronto and the Jays are hitting just .257 at home this season against right-handed pitching. Jeff Niemann has not allowed a home run in any of his last five starts and Tampa Bay is 8-1 in his last nine outings. On the Year the Rays are 10-4 behind Niemann and he will be an unfamiliar foe for the Jays. With an exceptional price on one of the hottest teams in baseball Halladay is worth fading until he proves he is completely healthy and at full endurance.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -129
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While Minnesota has struggled on the road this season, it appears its coming out of it, having won 4 of 6 away from home. I'll back the Twins tonight as they put the better starter on the hill. Blackburn is 6-3 on the season with an ERA of 3.11 and his ERA is down to 2.52 over his last 3 starts. Plus, he is 2-0 against the money line when starting against K.C. with an ERA of 2.35 and a WHIP of 0.913 in his career. The Twins are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Kansas City and 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. The Royals have dropped 5 straight at home and are 0-6 in Hochevar's last 6 starts vs. the American League Central and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog. Bet the Twins.
Scott Rickenbach
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San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: San Francisco Giants
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This one is simply a pitching mismatch. Neither offense has been setting the world on fire but this one comes down to which lineup has a better opportunity for success tonight with consideration given to the hurler they're facing. The answer to that is, without a doubt, the Giants. San Francisco has a great shot of getting to the Cardinals Thompson who is on his way out of the Cards rotation as Lohse is getting ready to return.
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Conversely, the Cardinals lineup is very unlikely to enjoy success against Lincecum tonight. The Giants right-hander is 7-2 this season with a 2.57 ERA and a .235 BAA. Amazingly, in his career, Lincecum is getting hit at a paltry .226 clip. Indeed, the Giants right-hander is one of a kind and he's 4-1 on the road this season and 3-0 against St Louis in his career. Consider a small play on San Francisco on Monday night.
Freddy Wills
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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Under 10
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We took two days off our free picks. Tonight we come back with Baltimore and Boston game as the match up we are looking at. For Boston they send John Lester to the mound looking to pitch another quality start. He did give up 3ER to the Nationals the last time out, but continues to throw well here. He has solid numbers against Baltimore over his career including 7 innings of shutout baseball giving up 4hits and striking 9 batters out earlier this year. Baltimore is hitting just .280 vs. LHP and scoring 4.43 runs per 9 innings. You would think Boston is the clear cut winner, but I disagree as Boston will go up against Jason Berken for the first time ever. Berken has never faced the Red Sox which could be good news for him if he throws strikes. Boston is struggling vs. RHP just .210 average and 3.10 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP last 5 games. With 91% of the public on Boston here the line has dropped from -165 to -161 in most places telling me that Vegas is expecting a solid start from Berken and the Boston lineup to struggle. Baltimore under 7-1-1 last 9 home vs. LHP Boston under 12-2-3 last 17 following a loss. Take Under 10
Jack Jones
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Chicago White Sox +100
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The combination of Carl Pavano and the Cleveland Indians' bullpen make the White Sox an easy play on Monday. Pavano has been lit-up in his last three starts, earning a 0-2 record with a 12.14 ERA and a 2.55 WHIP. Once Pavano heads to the bench, it doesn't get much better for the Indians. Their bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, sporting a 12-17 record overall with a 4.92 ERA and 13 blown saves in 26 attempts, just a 50% conversion rate. Chicago Starter, Gavin Floyd, is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his last three starts, while the Chicago bullpen has a 3.80 ERA, 12-11 record, and 70% save conversion rate this year. The smart money is on the White Sox tonight.
GINA
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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
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Tampa Bay Rays have won their last five games and will send Jeff Niemann to the hill. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 6.39 ERA in his last three starts and the Rays' have won Niemann's last 4 starts, seven of his last 8 on the road. However, the Rays have struggle away from home, dropping ten of the last its last 14 games on the road. Meanwhile, Toronto Blue Jays are just 3-6 in their last 9 home games, but will have Roy Halladay (10-1, 2.53 ERA), on the mound. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts, 7-0 with a 2.07 ERA last ten. The Blue Jays have won nine of Halladay's last 12 starts against the Rays.
Go with the Blue Jays with Halladay at the helm! Toronto is 4-1 in Halladay's last 5 starts versus the Rays at home.
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Toronto Blue Jays -160
Mr A's
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Florida Marlins -185
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Texas Rangers -135
MLB Computer Picks
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Boston Red Sox -160
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Pittsburgh Pirates -110
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Minnesota Twins -140
Tony Weston
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Today's Selection
Bad call last night as the Yankees and Mets can’t produce enough to go Over the Total.
That’s fine because we’re coming through tonight as we’re headed to Los Angeles where we’re taking the Dodgers at home against NL West rival Colorado.
Sure the Rockies are playing great ball right now, but they have yet to play anyone in the NL West in close to a month.
Consider that so far this season the Rockies have played the Dodgers 9 times and only once has Colorado picked up a win. Going back to the end of last season, Los Angeles is 11-2 its last 13 games against the Rockies, including a 4-0 mark its last 4 at home against Colorado.
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Keep in mind, too, the Dodgers are 26-12 at home this season and are 16-4 against the NL West at Chavez Ravine. Overall, Los Angeles has won 42 of its last 59 against division opponents.
Tonight, the Dodgers will continue their home winning ways and pick up a solid win against the visiting Rockies.
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3♦ DODGERS
Jake Timlin
Go with the Rockies as they continue their amazing run tonight.
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Having not fared well against the Dodgers on the year the Rockies are now ready to change their fortunes tonight as they continue to their amazing turnaround.
With their sweep of the A’s over the weekend the Rockies have now won 20 of their last 23 games and 12 of their last 14 on the road. Now to keep the Rockies streak going will be Jimenez who is 3-1 with a 3.22 in his last four starts.
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Wolf will counter for the Dodgers who have lost 4 of their last 5 game winless in his last five starts for a record of 2-0 with an ERA of 5.73 or two runs higher than his season ERA of 3.64.
Advantage Colorado.
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2♦ Colorado Rockies
Scott Delaney
I know all about Roy Oswalt’s success against San Diego, but he’s not invincible.
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After all, the right-hander is 2-2 over his last five starts and took a no-decision his last time out, last Wednesday against Kansas City. Oswalt remained 3-4 through 16 starts this season, and though he lowered his ERA from 4.48 to 4.30, he still hasn’t been himself.
And since this is a pitching system play, in that we’re banking on this revenge situation for Josh Geer, who lost to the ‘Stros and Oswaly on May 10, I’ll play the home underdog.
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It’s not impossible, really. Not when this same team just took two straight in Arlington thanks to a staunch effort by the pitching staff against one of the most dangerous lineups in the league. So if San Diego can handle Texas, I don’t see any reason to doubt the Friars tonight with a value number on the board.
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1♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES